<img alt="MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HLOnRDSM4hE-C6QT-mfaQDwDxcM=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/74021003/usa_today_25889066.0.jpg">
Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
I’ll keep saying it. Just keep winning series. It’s finally time to answer this in the affirmative and win a second series in a row.
Winning series really is the way you have to look at a baseball season. Every team will have runs like the Braves had to start the season, but that’s 7 of 162 games, or 4.3% of the season. It’s just not that representative of the season, even though it certainly isn’t good. But good teams win series after series, and a few of those are likely to string together win streaks of 6 to 9 to counteract the rough runs you happen to get on.
In order to win this series, Atlanta sends Chris Sale to the mount, and he’s been … not good. He’s lasted on 14.2 innings over 3 starts, and his ERA sits at 6.75. Sale, himself, has addressed this, and we’ve already covered it a bit as well.
Some of the more surface-level metrics aren’t nearly that bad. He’s striking out a batter less per 9 innings than he did in 2024, but he’s still around 10.5. He’s also walking a better less per 9, and that’s under 1 per 9. His xFIP, FIP, etc. are all in the low 3s, which aren’t as otherworldly as he was last season, but well, he was the Cy Young Award winner last year at 35. We probably shouldn’t have expected him to repeat that.
His Statcast metrics are less promising, though.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KS75q50URKt0Dpvms0Gv2s0x2bk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25951712/Picture_1.png">
You can see the fastball velocity has really dipped, and it’s resulting in more barrels, less groundballs, and higher exit velocities. All of those are trending in in the wrong direction, and it’s as much of an explanation for his early-season start as random variation.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2F8aW3G0HpQS4ShBoT8Kt8c7QBs=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25951713/Picture_2.png">
Even his pitches seem worse. His slider (yellow) doesn’t have the same drop. The sinker (orange) has less drop. The change (green) has less drop. And the fastball (red) has more drop, which isn’t what you want. Ultimately, he’s still been able to miss bats, but we need to lower our expectations for Chris unless we see some of this begins trending the other direction as he gets settled into the year, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility (we use the phrase “mid-season form” for a reason).
Opposing Sale will be Joe Boyle, who was called up in a rush for his first MLB start of 2025 to give Rays starters an extra day of rest. Boyle is a bit of an interesting guy. He throws really hard, and his average velocity will rank near the top of the MLB. But as you might expect, he has no idea where it’s going, and his walk rates are all nearly absurd. He tries to keep it simple by going predominately fastball/slider, but there’s a curve and sweeper in there somewhere. It’ll behoove Atlanta to be patient today and sit on fastballs.
Atlanta heads out to win its fifth game of the season, and it’ll be up to the old codger to beat the youngin’.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, April 13, 1:40 a.m. EDT
Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
TV: FanDuel Sports South, Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
<img alt="MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HLOnRDSM4hE-C6QT-mfaQDwDxcM=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/74021003/usa_today_25889066.0.jpg">
Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
I’ll keep saying it. Just keep winning series. It’s finally time to answer this in the affirmative and win a second series in a row.
Winning series really is the way you have to look at a baseball season. Every team will have runs like the Braves had to start the season, but that’s 7 of 162 games, or 4.3% of the season. It’s just not that representative of the season, even though it certainly isn’t good. But good teams win series after series, and a few of those are likely to string together win streaks of 6 to 9 to counteract the rough runs you happen to get on.
In order to win this series, Atlanta sends Chris Sale to the mount, and he’s been … not good. He’s lasted on 14.2 innings over 3 starts, and his ERA sits at 6.75. Sale, himself, has addressed this, and we’ve already covered it a bit as well.
Some of the more surface-level metrics aren’t nearly that bad. He’s striking out a batter less per 9 innings than he did in 2024, but he’s still around 10.5. He’s also walking a better less per 9, and that’s under 1 per 9. His xFIP, FIP, etc. are all in the low 3s, which aren’t as otherworldly as he was last season, but well, he was the Cy Young Award winner last year at 35. We probably shouldn’t have expected him to repeat that.
His Statcast metrics are less promising, though.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KS75q50URKt0Dpvms0Gv2s0x2bk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25951712/Picture_1.png">
You can see the fastball velocity has really dipped, and it’s resulting in more barrels, less groundballs, and higher exit velocities. All of those are trending in in the wrong direction, and it’s as much of an explanation for his early-season start as random variation.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2F8aW3G0HpQS4ShBoT8Kt8c7QBs=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25951713/Picture_2.png">
Even his pitches seem worse. His slider (yellow) doesn’t have the same drop. The sinker (orange) has less drop. The change (green) has less drop. And the fastball (red) has more drop, which isn’t what you want. Ultimately, he’s still been able to miss bats, but we need to lower our expectations for Chris unless we see some of this begins trending the other direction as he gets settled into the year, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility (we use the phrase “mid-season form” for a reason).
Opposing Sale will be Joe Boyle, who was called up in a rush for his first MLB start of 2025 to give Rays starters an extra day of rest. Boyle is a bit of an interesting guy. He throws really hard, and his average velocity will rank near the top of the MLB. But as you might expect, he has no idea where it’s going, and his walk rates are all nearly absurd. He tries to keep it simple by going predominately fastball/slider, but there’s a curve and sweeper in there somewhere. It’ll behoove Atlanta to be patient today and sit on fastballs.
Atlanta heads out to win its fifth game of the season, and it’ll be up to the old codger to beat the youngin’.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, April 13, 1:40 a.m. EDT
Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
TV: FanDuel Sports South, Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
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