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Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
The Braves need their star third-baseman to play like a star again. Between the start of 2021 and the end of July 2022, Austin Riley was one of the best hitters on planet earth. In those 1100 plate appearances, Riley posted a .924 OPS, a 148 wRC+, 62 HRs, and a .560 SLG%.
From August 2022 to present day, Austin Riley has 1500 plate appearances and has posted an .803 OPS, a 117 wRC+, 66 HRS, and a .471 SLG%.
One of those lines is elite, the other is...solid. And typically there's not much wrong with solid production but unfortunately for Riley, the dates chosen for those two stat-lines weren't just arbitrary endpoints. On August 1st, 2022, Riley signed a 10-year/$212M contract extension with the Atlanta Braves, the biggest contract in franchise history. The first line is the 1100 plate appearances he took before getting the contract. The second stat-line is everything that has happened since.
The Braves gave him that deal, in large part, because of that first stat-line. He had spent the last year-and-a-half being an elite, middle-of-the-order bat that could anchor an entire lineup. That could be a franchise superstar. They don't hand you largest contract in the history of the team for being just solid. And since signing that extension, he’s been on the whole, more good than great.
He’s certainly had his moments of looking elite again. In the second half of 2023, he looked very much like a guy who had finally shaken the pressure of signing that massive extension, posting a .968 OPS and a 154 wRC+ the last three months of 2023. In June of 2024, he looked the part again, posting a .909 OPS and a 151wRC+ for the month. But these massive peaks in production have inevitably been accompanied, either on the front-end or the back-end, by equally large valleys that drag his overall numbers down. And the Braves offense as a whole, has paid for it.
It’s at this point, we need to stop and fully acknowledge the Braves’ offensive troubles the last 18 months are not exclusively tied to Austin Riley. Without even looking at the comments of this post, I can already see them in my mind. “What about Matt Olson’s drop in production?” “What about Acuna’s injuries?” “What about Ozzie Albies’ overall decline or Michael Harris’ maddeningly inconsistent plate approach?” “What about Sean Murphy or Jarred Kelenic or having an offensive blackhole at shortstop?” Outside of Marcell Ozuna, just about everyone in the lineup could have a similar post written about them, and at the rate they’re going, are going to have a similar post written about them here soon.
But only one of them was given the largest contract in franchise history, and fair or not, once you sign your name on that dotted line, the expectations are different. Once you’re permanently given a spot in the middle of that order, the spotlight stays on you. Where credit goes during success, blame goes during failure. And the Braves’ offense has been failing for too long now.
Casual viewers, along with the more optimistic of the fanbase, will point to all the injuries of 2024 as the primary explanation for the offensive failures of last year. The unfortunate truth however is even when the Braves’ best players were healthy last year, the production wasn't at the level it should've been. And the team confirmed that very statement when they fired the entire offensive coaching staff immediately after the season. Injuries accounted for some of it, but not nearly all of it. Yes, Riley missed the last few weeks of the season with a broken hand, but he also had almost 500 plate appearances before that posting a .783 OPS. And again, that wasn't exclusive to Riley but Riley is who we’re talking about today and a .783 OPS over that long a stretch just isn't good enough. The Braves need more from him, and I think he would tell you that.
And I will admit, had Riley gotten off to incredible start to the 2025 season, this post would've never been written. So in some ways this is a response to his abysmal first 9 games of this season, where he has a 32 wRC+ and has continuously failed in big situations with some ugly at-bats. He himself called his at-bats “embarassing.” But 9 games, no matter how bad, are never enough for a post like this, which is why I used his last 1500 plate appearances at the beginning. It’s a much larger sample and much clearer picture of the situation. But the fact remains, if Riley was currently sitting on a 200 wRC+ for the season, you’re not reading any of this, so that’s a fair criticism of me if you want to levy it.
But if you got an honest moment out of President of Baseball Ops Alex Anthopoulos, I think he would tell you they were hoping, and expecting, a bit more than a 117 wRC+ from Riley in the 1500 plate appearances since they gave him that contract. I’m guessing they were hoping for the guy who posted a 148 wRC+ the 1100 plate appearances before that. That’s certainly more in line with a $200M+ contract from a team that doesn't just hand out big money deals at the drop of a hat.
The good news, for all parties, is there's still plenty of time to write the full narrative of this contract. Riley could wake up tomorrow, find his elite form again, destroy baseballs for the next 7+ years and no one will ever remember the little blip at the beginning. His batted ball data (bat speed, exit velocities, expected numbers, etc) is still excellent with plenty to dream on, he's made strong improvements on the defensive side of the ball, and he’s still only 28-years-old. Betting on him is probably a smarter wager than betting against him at this point.
The team is 1-8 to start the season largely because they can't score. Riley returning to form wouldn't t solve everything but my God would it help. They need their middle-of-the-order, slugging 3B back. The Braves need more from Austin Riley.
<img alt="MLB: Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vYqmEGgw_WrVH_Jf7FcpH7Jy3B0=/0x0:3740x2493/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/74011927/usa_today_25796855.0.jpg">
Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
The Braves need their star third-baseman to play like a star again. Between the start of 2021 and the end of July 2022, Austin Riley was one of the best hitters on planet earth. In those 1100 plate appearances, Riley posted a .924 OPS, a 148 wRC+, 62 HRs, and a .560 SLG%.
From August 2022 to present day, Austin Riley has 1500 plate appearances and has posted an .803 OPS, a 117 wRC+, 66 HRS, and a .471 SLG%.
One of those lines is elite, the other is...solid. And typically there's not much wrong with solid production but unfortunately for Riley, the dates chosen for those two stat-lines weren't just arbitrary endpoints. On August 1st, 2022, Riley signed a 10-year/$212M contract extension with the Atlanta Braves, the biggest contract in franchise history. The first line is the 1100 plate appearances he took before getting the contract. The second stat-line is everything that has happened since.
The Braves gave him that deal, in large part, because of that first stat-line. He had spent the last year-and-a-half being an elite, middle-of-the-order bat that could anchor an entire lineup. That could be a franchise superstar. They don't hand you largest contract in the history of the team for being just solid. And since signing that extension, he’s been on the whole, more good than great.
He’s certainly had his moments of looking elite again. In the second half of 2023, he looked very much like a guy who had finally shaken the pressure of signing that massive extension, posting a .968 OPS and a 154 wRC+ the last three months of 2023. In June of 2024, he looked the part again, posting a .909 OPS and a 151wRC+ for the month. But these massive peaks in production have inevitably been accompanied, either on the front-end or the back-end, by equally large valleys that drag his overall numbers down. And the Braves offense as a whole, has paid for it.
It’s at this point, we need to stop and fully acknowledge the Braves’ offensive troubles the last 18 months are not exclusively tied to Austin Riley. Without even looking at the comments of this post, I can already see them in my mind. “What about Matt Olson’s drop in production?” “What about Acuna’s injuries?” “What about Ozzie Albies’ overall decline or Michael Harris’ maddeningly inconsistent plate approach?” “What about Sean Murphy or Jarred Kelenic or having an offensive blackhole at shortstop?” Outside of Marcell Ozuna, just about everyone in the lineup could have a similar post written about them, and at the rate they’re going, are going to have a similar post written about them here soon.
But only one of them was given the largest contract in franchise history, and fair or not, once you sign your name on that dotted line, the expectations are different. Once you’re permanently given a spot in the middle of that order, the spotlight stays on you. Where credit goes during success, blame goes during failure. And the Braves’ offense has been failing for too long now.
Casual viewers, along with the more optimistic of the fanbase, will point to all the injuries of 2024 as the primary explanation for the offensive failures of last year. The unfortunate truth however is even when the Braves’ best players were healthy last year, the production wasn't at the level it should've been. And the team confirmed that very statement when they fired the entire offensive coaching staff immediately after the season. Injuries accounted for some of it, but not nearly all of it. Yes, Riley missed the last few weeks of the season with a broken hand, but he also had almost 500 plate appearances before that posting a .783 OPS. And again, that wasn't exclusive to Riley but Riley is who we’re talking about today and a .783 OPS over that long a stretch just isn't good enough. The Braves need more from him, and I think he would tell you that.
And I will admit, had Riley gotten off to incredible start to the 2025 season, this post would've never been written. So in some ways this is a response to his abysmal first 9 games of this season, where he has a 32 wRC+ and has continuously failed in big situations with some ugly at-bats. He himself called his at-bats “embarassing.” But 9 games, no matter how bad, are never enough for a post like this, which is why I used his last 1500 plate appearances at the beginning. It’s a much larger sample and much clearer picture of the situation. But the fact remains, if Riley was currently sitting on a 200 wRC+ for the season, you’re not reading any of this, so that’s a fair criticism of me if you want to levy it.
But if you got an honest moment out of President of Baseball Ops Alex Anthopoulos, I think he would tell you they were hoping, and expecting, a bit more than a 117 wRC+ from Riley in the 1500 plate appearances since they gave him that contract. I’m guessing they were hoping for the guy who posted a 148 wRC+ the 1100 plate appearances before that. That’s certainly more in line with a $200M+ contract from a team that doesn't just hand out big money deals at the drop of a hat.
The good news, for all parties, is there's still plenty of time to write the full narrative of this contract. Riley could wake up tomorrow, find his elite form again, destroy baseballs for the next 7+ years and no one will ever remember the little blip at the beginning. His batted ball data (bat speed, exit velocities, expected numbers, etc) is still excellent with plenty to dream on, he's made strong improvements on the defensive side of the ball, and he’s still only 28-years-old. Betting on him is probably a smarter wager than betting against him at this point.
The team is 1-8 to start the season largely because they can't score. Riley returning to form wouldn't t solve everything but my God would it help. They need their middle-of-the-order, slugging 3B back. The Braves need more from Austin Riley.
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