<img alt="MLB: Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kqrST0TjctAezeTz7KW3ssweNKI=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/74011931/usa_today_25848770.0.jpg">
Marcell Ozuna looks to turn his fortunes against Wheeler around | Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Sean Murphy is making his season debut and Orlando Arcia gets the start against Zack Wheeler The Atlanta Braves offense has struggled, there is no doubt about it. Their underlying metrics have shown that they have been unlucky. They have the sixth best barrel per plate appearance (Brls/PA%) in MLB. A barrel is a batted ball event that typically leads to a .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. Over a long period of time, a high Brls/PA% results in a high run output. This has not translated yet.
The Braves have the second best average exit velocity and seventh highest hard hit rate. Over time, this translates to more runs than if you were lower in the league rankings. These underlying metrics have not translated yet. The Braves are dead last in runs scored this season.
Outside of the underlying metrics like the ones we see on Statcast, the Braves have had tough batting average of balls in play (BABIP) luck. Typically if your BABIP is below league average, you have had poor luck. The Braves have the eighth worse BABIP with a .255. The median BABIP is held by the Nationals at .289.
One area that the Braves don’t have an excuse in is how they have performed with runners in scoring position. The Braves are the fourth worst team in MLB when it comes to batting average with runners in scoring position at .173. If they can change that, it would be a huge boon for the team. They will need to capitalize on this tonight to be successful.
The Braves will be facing Zack Wheeler who does not give up many baserunners to begin with. Most of the Braves have struggled against him and many of them have seen him quite a few times. Ozzie Albies has a .149 average and .503 OPS in forty-seven at-bats and Marcell Ozuna in fifty-four at-bats has a .185 average and .566 OPS. Matt Olson has a .712 OPS against Wheeler in twenty six at-bats, but only a .192 average. Austin Riley arguably has had the best success with a .250 average and .736 OPS in forty at-bats.
Jarred Kelenic has had limited success with a 1.000 OPS in five at-bats against Wheeler.
Sale on the mound!#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/ybFmmnuEZH— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) April 8, 2025
Sean Murphy is making his season debut for the Braves and will bat eighth. He has a .300 OPS against Wheller in ten at-bats.
Orlando Arcia is also getting the start over Nick Allen.
The Phillies only have one player that has more than six at-bats against Chris Sale and that is Nick Castellanos with a .541 OPS in forty-three at-bats. Alec Bohm, Max Kepler, and Kyle Schwarber have an OPS of .900, 1.000, and .834 respectively, but none of them have more than six at-bats.
The key to this game is the Braves getting to Wheeler earlier since he has a knack for going deep in games. The Braves will need to have clutch hits with RISP, which they have struggled with thus far.
First pitch is at 7:15 PM EDT.
<img alt="MLB: Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kqrST0TjctAezeTz7KW3ssweNKI=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/74011931/usa_today_25848770.0.jpg">
Marcell Ozuna looks to turn his fortunes against Wheeler around | Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Sean Murphy is making his season debut and Orlando Arcia gets the start against Zack Wheeler The Atlanta Braves offense has struggled, there is no doubt about it. Their underlying metrics have shown that they have been unlucky. They have the sixth best barrel per plate appearance (Brls/PA%) in MLB. A barrel is a batted ball event that typically leads to a .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. Over a long period of time, a high Brls/PA% results in a high run output. This has not translated yet.
The Braves have the second best average exit velocity and seventh highest hard hit rate. Over time, this translates to more runs than if you were lower in the league rankings. These underlying metrics have not translated yet. The Braves are dead last in runs scored this season.
Outside of the underlying metrics like the ones we see on Statcast, the Braves have had tough batting average of balls in play (BABIP) luck. Typically if your BABIP is below league average, you have had poor luck. The Braves have the eighth worse BABIP with a .255. The median BABIP is held by the Nationals at .289.
One area that the Braves don’t have an excuse in is how they have performed with runners in scoring position. The Braves are the fourth worst team in MLB when it comes to batting average with runners in scoring position at .173. If they can change that, it would be a huge boon for the team. They will need to capitalize on this tonight to be successful.
The Braves will be facing Zack Wheeler who does not give up many baserunners to begin with. Most of the Braves have struggled against him and many of them have seen him quite a few times. Ozzie Albies has a .149 average and .503 OPS in forty-seven at-bats and Marcell Ozuna in fifty-four at-bats has a .185 average and .566 OPS. Matt Olson has a .712 OPS against Wheeler in twenty six at-bats, but only a .192 average. Austin Riley arguably has had the best success with a .250 average and .736 OPS in forty at-bats.
Jarred Kelenic has had limited success with a 1.000 OPS in five at-bats against Wheeler.
Sale on the mound!#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/ybFmmnuEZH— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) April 8, 2025
Sean Murphy is making his season debut for the Braves and will bat eighth. He has a .300 OPS against Wheller in ten at-bats.
Orlando Arcia is also getting the start over Nick Allen.
The Phillies only have one player that has more than six at-bats against Chris Sale and that is Nick Castellanos with a .541 OPS in forty-three at-bats. Alec Bohm, Max Kepler, and Kyle Schwarber have an OPS of .900, 1.000, and .834 respectively, but none of them have more than six at-bats.
The key to this game is the Braves getting to Wheeler earlier since he has a knack for going deep in games. The Braves will need to have clutch hits with RISP, which they have struggled with thus far.
First pitch is at 7:15 PM EDT.
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