<img alt="MLB: APR 05 Marlins at Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Jr3Fu-vsCrQQ6Et6l3FfjISh4N8=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/74011383/2208405372.0.jpg">
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
It raised the ire of Braves fans across then internet, but did FanGraphs actually get it wrong back in 2015? Back in 2015, when all Atlanta Braves fans had was the hope and wishes on prospects as the Braves were in the midst of their first full-fledged rebuild since the late 1980’s, FanGraphs released a prospect ranking of the top prospects in Atlanta’s system and boy howdy were fans mad online. It was so bad that FanGraphs updated the ranking - most notably adding Austin Riley to the list after his omission from the original piece.
This was the “Barves” era - when things were awful in Atlanta - so much so that any misplay or TOOTBLAN was known drew the hashtag, #BARVES. The first two weeks of the 2025 season have, shockingly, hearkened back to that Barves era.
A random mention of pitcher Ryan Weber jogged the memory of that FanGraphs ranking and now - almost ten years later - let’s revisit that controversial list and see how the players on the list actually fared during their big league career (so far).
First, a note. FanGraphs is a go-to site for most baseball fans, and has been for many years, with numerous well-respected writers having been on their staff or providing insight for them now. As controversial as this referencing article was, the point of this piece is to see how unpredictable prospect ranking actual is, and if that FanGraphs ranking ended up being that bad, after all.
When the 2016 Atlanta Braves prospect evaluation piece originally published in late 2015, three names jumped to the first of those with issue and ire: starting pitchers John Gant and Ryan Weber and infielder Austin Riley.
For Gant and Weber, it was about their placement in the rankings - both of which were higher than anyone likely could have imagined in the top five. For Riley, it was about his omission from the ranking.
Now, ten seasons into the future, was the Braves internet community right to have had their tail feathers so ruffled?
Using FanGraphs own metrics, here is a look at how each of those top prospects have produced (so far) n their professional journey. Simply put, this isn’t going to be a deep dive, but a simple measure of fWAR - and a few notes, where needed - starting from the bottom of their revised list. Players with a “N/A” did not (or have not) reached the big leagues.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/m1mTDDVdLXjqbJIF37kFPMTQZu8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25944812/1270172255.jpg">
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Johan Camargo was a key member of the 2018 Braves team that made the playoffs.
Carson Cistulli’s Guy
Now of the Toronto Blue Jay’s front office, Cistulli chose someone in the organization that wasn’t ranked as his guy.
Willians Astudillo (C) - -0.3 fWAR across five MLB season for the utility man who did not walk nor strike out at all with a 1.9-percent walk-rate and 4.8-percent strikeout rate. “Tortuga” was a bit of a cult-hero who also pitched in seven games during his career.
Quick Hits
The honorable mentions of honorable mentions.
Dian Toscano (OF) - N/A
Joseph Odom (C) - -0.5 fWAR in 20 MLB games.
Lucas Herbert (C) - N/A
Juan Yepez (C) - -0.1 fWAR across three seasons and is still active.
Tanner Murphy (C) - N/A
Brandon Barker (P) - N/A
Ryan Clark (P) - N/A
Andy Otero (P) - N/A
Players of Note
The actual honorable mentions.
Dustin Peterson (3B/OF) - -0.2 fWAR in 19 games; debuted with Atlanta and played in two games with the Braves.
Luke Dykstra (2B) - N/A
Jason Hursh (P) - 0.0 fWAR in 11 career games, including one MLB win in 2017 for the Braves.
Sean Godfrey (OF) - N/A
Conner Lien (OF) - N/A
Johan Camargo (SS) - 4.0 fWAR. The first player on this list to have a posting fWAR, Camargo was the Braves starting third baseman in 2018 and posted a 3.2 fWAR in 132 games following a rookie season with 1.6 fWAR in 82 games. He was part of the 2021 World Series Championship team, although he appeared in only 15 games and didn’t get a hit that season. His last had a couple of coffee in 2022 and 2023 with two different teams.
<img alt="Kansas City Royals v Atlanta Braves" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xWF1IysflVEIMBosm6sQ05M576E=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25944814/2174050530.jpg">
Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
Max Fried was an anchor of the Braves rotation during his time in Atlanta.
Ranked Players
These players were grouped based on their future value, from lowest to highest.
- Andrew Thurman (P) - N/A
- Rio Ruiz (3B) - -0.8 fWAR in 315 career games with the Braves and Baltimore Orioles.
- Tyrell Jenkins (P) - -0.9 fWAR in 14 games for the Braves in 2016 and then was traded for Luke Jackson and Jordan Walden.
- Richard Sanchez (P) - -0.1 fWAR in three career games. He turns 28 on April 11 and pitched in the KBO the past two seasons.
- Braxton Davidson (P) - N/A
- Daniel Castro (IF) - -1.4 fWAR in 98 career games, including 80 with the Braves in 2015 and 2016.
- Chris Ellis (P) - 0.3 fWAR in 10 career games for three different organizations.
- Mauricio Cabrera (P) - 0.7 fWAR in 41 career games, all in 2016 for the Braves.
- Touki Toussaint (P) - 0.0 fWAR in 88 career games and is still active. He has yet to be able put it all together on the mound, but is not yet 29 years old.
- Max Fried (P) - 19.1 fWAR in 170 games and 153 starts and is coming off signing one of the largest free agent contracts for left handed pitchers in MLB history. He has been a two-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glove Award winner and won what was likely the last Silver Slugger Award for pitchers in history. He also has two top-5 Cy Young Award finishes. He is now with the New York Yankees.
- Mike Soroka (P) - 4.9 fWAR. If not for injuries, the 27-year-old likely would have accrued more fWAR. He has only pitched in 70 games since his 2018 debut - including is All-Star 2019 season with the Braves. He is with the Washington Nationals.
- Mallex Smith (OF) - 5.0 fWAR. The speedy outfielder only spent one season with Atlanta but played in 442 career games and stole 40 or more places in 2018 and 2019.
- Max Povse (P) - 0.0 fWAR in three games in 2017 for the Seattle Mariners.
- Hector Olivera (3B/OF) - -0.3 fWARD. A trade acquisition by Atlanta after signing a big-money deal as a free agent out of Cuba, his career ended after 30 games and a domestic violence suspension.
- Lucas Sims (P) - 2.1 fWAR. Sims, who is still active, has pitched in 252 games, where he has carved out a niche as a right-handed reliever after debuting as a starter with Atlanta in 2017.
- Austin Riley (3B) - 18.4 fWAR. Riley, the Braves starting third baseman who the team locked up to the biggest contract extension in team history, posted 5+ fWAR seasons from 2021 to 2023, before an injury-shortened 2024 season. He has been a two-time Silver Slugger and All-Star.
- Ryan Weber (P) - 0.0 fWAR in 76 career games across nine big league seasons serving as a swing-man bouncing between MLB and Triple-A.
- Kolby Allard (P) - 0.5 fWAR in 76 career games, Allard is still active and only 27, has had two stints in Atlanta and has appeared in at least three MLB games in each season since 2018, coming into this season.
- Sean Newcomb (P) - 3.0 fWAR. The left-hander looked to be establishing himself as a rotation option for Atlanta in the late ‘10s, but struggles with command and a conversion to relief seemed to cast doubt on his big league future as he seen limited MLB action in recent seasons. He made the Boston Red Sox starting rotation out of Spring Training this season.
- John Gant (P) - 3.0 fWAR. Gant appeared in 173 games and made 49 starts in six big-league season, most with the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Ozzie Albies (SS) - 20.4 fWAR. The best prospect on the FanGraphs list has produced the most fWAR of any player with the second baseman in his ninth season as Atlanta’s starting second baseman. A three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger, Albies has dealt with injury issues in two of the past three seasons, but has appeared in 880 career games for the Braves.
<img alt="Miami Marlins v Atlanta Braves" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Q9GiztWz3z9WgebD61zWfYEm4p0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25944822/2208282389.jpg">
Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
Ozzie Albies has produced the most fWAR (so far) of any Braves prospect in the notorious FanGraphs evaluation.
2025 Re-ranking
In retrospect, how would the FanGraph’s player rankings be revalued based on fWAR? (Original ranking in parentheses.)
- Albies (1) 20.4 fWAR
- Fried (12) 19.1 fWAR
- Riley (6) 18.4 fWAR
- Smith (10) 5.0 fWAR
- Soroka (11) 4.9 fWAR
- Camargo (Not Ranked) 4.0 fWAR
- (tie). Gant (2) 3.0 fWAR
7 (tie). Newcomb (3) 3.0 fWAR
- Sims (7) 2.1 fWAR
- Cabrera (14) 0.7 fWAR
So, there you have it, at least for now. All these years later, the consternation about Gant and Weber are sort of a much ado about nothing, right? But there are still no excuses for Riley.
<img alt="MLB: APR 05 Marlins at Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Jr3Fu-vsCrQQ6Et6l3FfjISh4N8=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/74011383/2208405372.0.jpg">
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
It raised the ire of Braves fans across then internet, but did FanGraphs actually get it wrong back in 2015? Back in 2015, when all Atlanta Braves fans had was the hope and wishes on prospects as the Braves were in the midst of their first full-fledged rebuild since the late 1980’s, FanGraphs released a prospect ranking of the top prospects in Atlanta’s system and boy howdy were fans mad online. It was so bad that FanGraphs updated the ranking - most notably adding Austin Riley to the list after his omission from the original piece.
This was the “Barves” era - when things were awful in Atlanta - so much so that any misplay or TOOTBLAN was known drew the hashtag, #BARVES. The first two weeks of the 2025 season have, shockingly, hearkened back to that Barves era.
A random mention of pitcher Ryan Weber jogged the memory of that FanGraphs ranking and now - almost ten years later - let’s revisit that controversial list and see how the players on the list actually fared during their big league career (so far).
First, a note. FanGraphs is a go-to site for most baseball fans, and has been for many years, with numerous well-respected writers having been on their staff or providing insight for them now. As controversial as this referencing article was, the point of this piece is to see how unpredictable prospect ranking actual is, and if that FanGraphs ranking ended up being that bad, after all.
When the 2016 Atlanta Braves prospect evaluation piece originally published in late 2015, three names jumped to the first of those with issue and ire: starting pitchers John Gant and Ryan Weber and infielder Austin Riley.
For Gant and Weber, it was about their placement in the rankings - both of which were higher than anyone likely could have imagined in the top five. For Riley, it was about his omission from the ranking.
Now, ten seasons into the future, was the Braves internet community right to have had their tail feathers so ruffled?
Using FanGraphs own metrics, here is a look at how each of those top prospects have produced (so far) n their professional journey. Simply put, this isn’t going to be a deep dive, but a simple measure of fWAR - and a few notes, where needed - starting from the bottom of their revised list. Players with a “N/A” did not (or have not) reached the big leagues.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/m1mTDDVdLXjqbJIF37kFPMTQZu8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25944812/1270172255.jpg">
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Johan Camargo was a key member of the 2018 Braves team that made the playoffs.
Carson Cistulli’s Guy
Now of the Toronto Blue Jay’s front office, Cistulli chose someone in the organization that wasn’t ranked as his guy.
Willians Astudillo (C) - -0.3 fWAR across five MLB season for the utility man who did not walk nor strike out at all with a 1.9-percent walk-rate and 4.8-percent strikeout rate. “Tortuga” was a bit of a cult-hero who also pitched in seven games during his career.
Quick Hits
The honorable mentions of honorable mentions.
Dian Toscano (OF) - N/A
Joseph Odom (C) - -0.5 fWAR in 20 MLB games.
Lucas Herbert (C) - N/A
Juan Yepez (C) - -0.1 fWAR across three seasons and is still active.
Tanner Murphy (C) - N/A
Brandon Barker (P) - N/A
Ryan Clark (P) - N/A
Andy Otero (P) - N/A
Players of Note
The actual honorable mentions.
Dustin Peterson (3B/OF) - -0.2 fWAR in 19 games; debuted with Atlanta and played in two games with the Braves.
Luke Dykstra (2B) - N/A
Jason Hursh (P) - 0.0 fWAR in 11 career games, including one MLB win in 2017 for the Braves.
Sean Godfrey (OF) - N/A
Conner Lien (OF) - N/A
Johan Camargo (SS) - 4.0 fWAR. The first player on this list to have a posting fWAR, Camargo was the Braves starting third baseman in 2018 and posted a 3.2 fWAR in 132 games following a rookie season with 1.6 fWAR in 82 games. He was part of the 2021 World Series Championship team, although he appeared in only 15 games and didn’t get a hit that season. His last had a couple of coffee in 2022 and 2023 with two different teams.
<img alt="Kansas City Royals v Atlanta Braves" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xWF1IysflVEIMBosm6sQ05M576E=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25944814/2174050530.jpg">
Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
Max Fried was an anchor of the Braves rotation during his time in Atlanta.
Ranked Players
These players were grouped based on their future value, from lowest to highest.
- Andrew Thurman (P) - N/A
- Rio Ruiz (3B) - -0.8 fWAR in 315 career games with the Braves and Baltimore Orioles.
- Tyrell Jenkins (P) - -0.9 fWAR in 14 games for the Braves in 2016 and then was traded for Luke Jackson and Jordan Walden.
- Richard Sanchez (P) - -0.1 fWAR in three career games. He turns 28 on April 11 and pitched in the KBO the past two seasons.
- Braxton Davidson (P) - N/A
- Daniel Castro (IF) - -1.4 fWAR in 98 career games, including 80 with the Braves in 2015 and 2016.
- Chris Ellis (P) - 0.3 fWAR in 10 career games for three different organizations.
- Mauricio Cabrera (P) - 0.7 fWAR in 41 career games, all in 2016 for the Braves.
- Touki Toussaint (P) - 0.0 fWAR in 88 career games and is still active. He has yet to be able put it all together on the mound, but is not yet 29 years old.
- Max Fried (P) - 19.1 fWAR in 170 games and 153 starts and is coming off signing one of the largest free agent contracts for left handed pitchers in MLB history. He has been a two-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glove Award winner and won what was likely the last Silver Slugger Award for pitchers in history. He also has two top-5 Cy Young Award finishes. He is now with the New York Yankees.
- Mike Soroka (P) - 4.9 fWAR. If not for injuries, the 27-year-old likely would have accrued more fWAR. He has only pitched in 70 games since his 2018 debut - including is All-Star 2019 season with the Braves. He is with the Washington Nationals.
- Mallex Smith (OF) - 5.0 fWAR. The speedy outfielder only spent one season with Atlanta but played in 442 career games and stole 40 or more places in 2018 and 2019.
- Max Povse (P) - 0.0 fWAR in three games in 2017 for the Seattle Mariners.
- Hector Olivera (3B/OF) - -0.3 fWARD. A trade acquisition by Atlanta after signing a big-money deal as a free agent out of Cuba, his career ended after 30 games and a domestic violence suspension.
- Lucas Sims (P) - 2.1 fWAR. Sims, who is still active, has pitched in 252 games, where he has carved out a niche as a right-handed reliever after debuting as a starter with Atlanta in 2017.
- Austin Riley (3B) - 18.4 fWAR. Riley, the Braves starting third baseman who the team locked up to the biggest contract extension in team history, posted 5+ fWAR seasons from 2021 to 2023, before an injury-shortened 2024 season. He has been a two-time Silver Slugger and All-Star.
- Ryan Weber (P) - 0.0 fWAR in 76 career games across nine big league seasons serving as a swing-man bouncing between MLB and Triple-A.
- Kolby Allard (P) - 0.5 fWAR in 76 career games, Allard is still active and only 27, has had two stints in Atlanta and has appeared in at least three MLB games in each season since 2018, coming into this season.
- Sean Newcomb (P) - 3.0 fWAR. The left-hander looked to be establishing himself as a rotation option for Atlanta in the late ‘10s, but struggles with command and a conversion to relief seemed to cast doubt on his big league future as he seen limited MLB action in recent seasons. He made the Boston Red Sox starting rotation out of Spring Training this season.
- John Gant (P) - 3.0 fWAR. Gant appeared in 173 games and made 49 starts in six big-league season, most with the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Ozzie Albies (SS) - 20.4 fWAR. The best prospect on the FanGraphs list has produced the most fWAR of any player with the second baseman in his ninth season as Atlanta’s starting second baseman. A three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger, Albies has dealt with injury issues in two of the past three seasons, but has appeared in 880 career games for the Braves.
<img alt="Miami Marlins v Atlanta Braves" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Q9GiztWz3z9WgebD61zWfYEm4p0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25944822/2208282389.jpg">
Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
Ozzie Albies has produced the most fWAR (so far) of any Braves prospect in the notorious FanGraphs evaluation.
2025 Re-ranking
In retrospect, how would the FanGraph’s player rankings be revalued based on fWAR? (Original ranking in parentheses.)
- Albies (1) 20.4 fWAR
- Fried (12) 19.1 fWAR
- Riley (6) 18.4 fWAR
- Smith (10) 5.0 fWAR
- Soroka (11) 4.9 fWAR
- Camargo (Not Ranked) 4.0 fWAR
- (tie). Gant (2) 3.0 fWAR
7 (tie). Newcomb (3) 3.0 fWAR
- Sims (7) 2.1 fWAR
- Cabrera (14) 0.7 fWAR
So, there you have it, at least for now. All these years later, the consternation about Gant and Weber are sort of a much ado about nothing, right? But there are still no excuses for Riley.
Link to original article
