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It’s been brutal so far, but the core of the Braves offense has been more unlucky than bad. There almost aren’t any words left to describe how disastrous the start of the season has been for the Atlanta Braves. After playing just nine games, they’re already six back in their own division. Suffice it to say, the baseball gods showed mercy on us all by raining out Sunday’s game and giving us a two day reprieve from having to watch them.
The question I was left to ponder on back to back off days – how concerned should we be?
When it comes to the Braves World Series hopes, the simple answer is “very.” Their playoff odds have already dropped by about 20 percentage points, and they’ve gone from being projected to win the NL East by six games to a projected third place finish. The projections at FanGraphs still see them as a likely Wild Card team, but certainly much less likely
The more pressing question is how concerned should we be about their performance to date and whether or not they can bounce back.
The offense (whose 66 wRC+ entering Monday was tied for league-worst) has been the main culprit of the heinous start, so we’ll focus on that for today. They’ve been shut out four times in nine games – most recently in a game started by Cal Quantrill – and as David O’Brien of The Athletic reported, they’ve been shut out in 14 of their past 113 games. Before this current stretch, they had gone 182 games without being shut out, so this offensive ineptitude really seemed to come out of nowhere.
First thing to address – the team has been tragic in run-scoring situations this year, to a level that far surpasses even what we saw from them in 2024. As of now, the Braves are hitting .192/.279/.248 with runners on base – tied for a league-low 55 wRC+ – and somehow it gets even worse when you put runners in scoring position, as the wRC+ drops to a truly abysmal 38 in those situations.
History tells us that situational hitting stats aren’t sticky or predictive over time, so if you want to trust the math, the fact that they’ve struggled with RISP in 2024 and so far in 2025 doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be bad going forward. If you’d prefer to go based on what you’re seeing with your eyeballs, a more pessimistic viewpoint might be that they seem to mentally fall apart when they have a chance to score. I’m holding out that this won’t be a thing all year and that the lack of clutch hitting is mostly due to randomness and the fact that the bottom of the order is full of fringy players.
Speaking of the bottom of the lineup, a huge component of the Braves’ offensive output to date is that they are still missing some key pieces, and the fill-ins have been quite awful.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is still several weeks away from his return, and Jurickson Profar ruined everything by deciding he needed to juice up. Since Profar’s suspension, Braves outfielders not named Michael Harris II have combined for the following stats:
Behind the plate, the Braves haven’t gotten any production in place of Sean Murphy, who will most likely make his 2025 debut tonight. Top prospect Drake Baldwin and the recently DFA’d Chadwick Tromp have combined for a putrid .129/.229/.161 slash line (17 wRC+). In Baldwin’s case, he’s at least put up competitive at-bats and hit the ball hard with some consistency (more on that later).
Murphy is back now, Acuña will be back in a few weeks, and – I can’t believe I’m saying this next part – Alex Verdugo should prove to be an upgrade over their current options to fill in for Profar. In the early going, Atlanta’s depth has not proved itself capable of handling a big league role, and that is concerning. But reinforcements are on the way, and these struggles at the bottom of the order wouldn’t be so unbearable if the Braves core hitters were producing.
In digging into the data on the Braves core hitters – the ones who are set to hold a real role once the Braves’ lineup is back at full strength – most of what I’ve found seems to be poor luck, not poor performance. Let’s go hitter by hitter, based on the lineup we should expect to see tonight.
Michael Harris II – Harris has bounced back nicely after a brutal series in San Diego that saw him go 1-15 with no walks, no extra base hits, and 5 strikeouts. In his past five games, he’s 7 for 19 with one walk, 3 extra base hits, and 4 strikeouts, but Statcast thinks his overall numbers should be well above where they currently are. His .346 xwOBA on the young season is an exact match of his career mark, but his .285 wOBA is well below his career .340 wOBA. More specifically, he has a .284 xBA and .504 xSLG this year, but only a .242 BA and .394 SLG.
Ozzie Albies – Ozzie’s been another victim of poor luck in the early going. His .328 xwOBA is a little above his career .323 mark, but his .240 wOBA is nearly 100 points shy of his career .335 wOBA. His .275 xBA is pointing at his .194 BA, and his .449 xSLG is laughing at his .306 SLG.
Marcell Ozuna – Ozuna is the only player in the Braves core with some semblance of good luck. His .377 xwOBA is excellent (above his .365 career xwOBA), but his .417 wOBA is outpacing both his expected wOBA and his .351 career mark. He’s been a plate discipline machine in the first couple of weeks, leading all of MLB with 13 walks, which is a good sign that he’ll be able to provide value even when he isn’t barreling the ball with consistency.
Matt Olson – On the surface, Olson looks like he’s back to his normal self. His .369 wOBA is about in line with his .363 career wOBA. Underneath that, however, you’ll find that Matt’s been miserably unlucky. His .500 xwOBA – yes, .500 – is 5th in all of baseball, but his actual wOBA is 77th. It’s a top ten difference in xwOBA-wOBA in all of MLB, and unfortunately, he’s not the only Braves regular with a top ten difference. On the bright side, Olson’s plate discipline has been tremendous (21.1% BB, 15.8% K), so even as he’s hit into some bad luck, he’s still been very valuable in the middle of the order.
Austin Riley – Of the six core hitters that we’ll dive into today, Riley’s the only one whose profile looks bad under the surface. He’s struggled to make contact so far and is striking out in over 36% of his plate appearances through the first nine games. While his .261 xwOBA is a far cry from his career mark of .359 (he’s definitely scuffling), he also seems to be deserving of a slash line that is more “really bad” than “dear gods what is that,” as his .213 wOBA is nearly 50 points below his expected mark.
Drake Baldwin – With Baldwin set to remain with the big club after Tromp was DFA’d to make way for Murphy, I’ll keep him in the discussion for “core hitters.” Baldwin’s .207 wOBA is really, really bad – in fact, it ranks 237th out of 278 qualified hitters on Baseball Savant. His xwOBA, however, is very solid at .360 (a similar number to Olson, Ozuna, and Riley’s career marks). By xwOBA-wOBA, Baldwin has been the 5th unluckiest hitter in baseball. We’ve already seen him get robbed on a couple of leaping catches at the wall, and he also hilariously hit two balls 100+ mph that ricocheted off the pitcher directly at a fielder (the pitcher once, the first baseman another time). His approach has been great (10.3% BB, 17.2% K), and it’s only a matter of time before the hits start falling in bunches for him.
The short version is this – five of their six core hitters who are healthy and available to play right now have been significantly underperforming their expected stats, and most of that is just randomness and bad luck. For a team this talented to lose seven in a row at any point, it takes a combination of poor performance and bad luck, and that’s exactly the category of perfect storm the Braves have brewed up to start the year.
All in all, I’m feeling optimistic about Atlanta’s ability to bounce back. With some better luck and timing, the top 5-6 hitters in the order should be able to produce enough to give them a good chance to win over the next few weeks. And when Acuña reclaims his place at the top of the order and Verdugo comes up to fill a spot near the bottom, they should start scoring runs in bunches.
There are still plenty of reasons to be concerned, no doubt. But, if you’d like to be looking for some sort of reason for hope, the signs of a breakout are there. Hopefully that bears during this week’s series against the Phillies.
<img alt="MLB: APR 05 Marlins at Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5s_gcuu9e51ICgouLCRaRrT7UcE=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/74011174/2208178031.0.jpg">
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
It’s been brutal so far, but the core of the Braves offense has been more unlucky than bad. There almost aren’t any words left to describe how disastrous the start of the season has been for the Atlanta Braves. After playing just nine games, they’re already six back in their own division. Suffice it to say, the baseball gods showed mercy on us all by raining out Sunday’s game and giving us a two day reprieve from having to watch them.
The question I was left to ponder on back to back off days – how concerned should we be?
When it comes to the Braves World Series hopes, the simple answer is “very.” Their playoff odds have already dropped by about 20 percentage points, and they’ve gone from being projected to win the NL East by six games to a projected third place finish. The projections at FanGraphs still see them as a likely Wild Card team, but certainly much less likely
The more pressing question is how concerned should we be about their performance to date and whether or not they can bounce back.
The offense (whose 66 wRC+ entering Monday was tied for league-worst) has been the main culprit of the heinous start, so we’ll focus on that for today. They’ve been shut out four times in nine games – most recently in a game started by Cal Quantrill – and as David O’Brien of The Athletic reported, they’ve been shut out in 14 of their past 113 games. Before this current stretch, they had gone 182 games without being shut out, so this offensive ineptitude really seemed to come out of nowhere.
First thing to address – the team has been tragic in run-scoring situations this year, to a level that far surpasses even what we saw from them in 2024. As of now, the Braves are hitting .192/.279/.248 with runners on base – tied for a league-low 55 wRC+ – and somehow it gets even worse when you put runners in scoring position, as the wRC+ drops to a truly abysmal 38 in those situations.
History tells us that situational hitting stats aren’t sticky or predictive over time, so if you want to trust the math, the fact that they’ve struggled with RISP in 2024 and so far in 2025 doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be bad going forward. If you’d prefer to go based on what you’re seeing with your eyeballs, a more pessimistic viewpoint might be that they seem to mentally fall apart when they have a chance to score. I’m holding out that this won’t be a thing all year and that the lack of clutch hitting is mostly due to randomness and the fact that the bottom of the order is full of fringy players.
Speaking of the bottom of the lineup, a huge component of the Braves’ offensive output to date is that they are still missing some key pieces, and the fill-ins have been quite awful.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is still several weeks away from his return, and Jurickson Profar ruined everything by deciding he needed to juice up. Since Profar’s suspension, Braves outfielders not named Michael Harris II have combined for the following stats:
Behind the plate, the Braves haven’t gotten any production in place of Sean Murphy, who will most likely make his 2025 debut tonight. Top prospect Drake Baldwin and the recently DFA’d Chadwick Tromp have combined for a putrid .129/.229/.161 slash line (17 wRC+). In Baldwin’s case, he’s at least put up competitive at-bats and hit the ball hard with some consistency (more on that later).
Murphy is back now, Acuña will be back in a few weeks, and – I can’t believe I’m saying this next part – Alex Verdugo should prove to be an upgrade over their current options to fill in for Profar. In the early going, Atlanta’s depth has not proved itself capable of handling a big league role, and that is concerning. But reinforcements are on the way, and these struggles at the bottom of the order wouldn’t be so unbearable if the Braves core hitters were producing.
In digging into the data on the Braves core hitters – the ones who are set to hold a real role once the Braves’ lineup is back at full strength – most of what I’ve found seems to be poor luck, not poor performance. Let’s go hitter by hitter, based on the lineup we should expect to see tonight.
Michael Harris II – Harris has bounced back nicely after a brutal series in San Diego that saw him go 1-15 with no walks, no extra base hits, and 5 strikeouts. In his past five games, he’s 7 for 19 with one walk, 3 extra base hits, and 4 strikeouts, but Statcast thinks his overall numbers should be well above where they currently are. His .346 xwOBA on the young season is an exact match of his career mark, but his .285 wOBA is well below his career .340 wOBA. More specifically, he has a .284 xBA and .504 xSLG this year, but only a .242 BA and .394 SLG.
Ozzie Albies – Ozzie’s been another victim of poor luck in the early going. His .328 xwOBA is a little above his career .323 mark, but his .240 wOBA is nearly 100 points shy of his career .335 wOBA. His .275 xBA is pointing at his .194 BA, and his .449 xSLG is laughing at his .306 SLG.
Marcell Ozuna – Ozuna is the only player in the Braves core with some semblance of good luck. His .377 xwOBA is excellent (above his .365 career xwOBA), but his .417 wOBA is outpacing both his expected wOBA and his .351 career mark. He’s been a plate discipline machine in the first couple of weeks, leading all of MLB with 13 walks, which is a good sign that he’ll be able to provide value even when he isn’t barreling the ball with consistency.
Matt Olson – On the surface, Olson looks like he’s back to his normal self. His .369 wOBA is about in line with his .363 career wOBA. Underneath that, however, you’ll find that Matt’s been miserably unlucky. His .500 xwOBA – yes, .500 – is 5th in all of baseball, but his actual wOBA is 77th. It’s a top ten difference in xwOBA-wOBA in all of MLB, and unfortunately, he’s not the only Braves regular with a top ten difference. On the bright side, Olson’s plate discipline has been tremendous (21.1% BB, 15.8% K), so even as he’s hit into some bad luck, he’s still been very valuable in the middle of the order.
Austin Riley – Of the six core hitters that we’ll dive into today, Riley’s the only one whose profile looks bad under the surface. He’s struggled to make contact so far and is striking out in over 36% of his plate appearances through the first nine games. While his .261 xwOBA is a far cry from his career mark of .359 (he’s definitely scuffling), he also seems to be deserving of a slash line that is more “really bad” than “dear gods what is that,” as his .213 wOBA is nearly 50 points below his expected mark.
Drake Baldwin – With Baldwin set to remain with the big club after Tromp was DFA’d to make way for Murphy, I’ll keep him in the discussion for “core hitters.” Baldwin’s .207 wOBA is really, really bad – in fact, it ranks 237th out of 278 qualified hitters on Baseball Savant. His xwOBA, however, is very solid at .360 (a similar number to Olson, Ozuna, and Riley’s career marks). By xwOBA-wOBA, Baldwin has been the 5th unluckiest hitter in baseball. We’ve already seen him get robbed on a couple of leaping catches at the wall, and he also hilariously hit two balls 100+ mph that ricocheted off the pitcher directly at a fielder (the pitcher once, the first baseman another time). His approach has been great (10.3% BB, 17.2% K), and it’s only a matter of time before the hits start falling in bunches for him.
The short version is this – five of their six core hitters who are healthy and available to play right now have been significantly underperforming their expected stats, and most of that is just randomness and bad luck. For a team this talented to lose seven in a row at any point, it takes a combination of poor performance and bad luck, and that’s exactly the category of perfect storm the Braves have brewed up to start the year.
All in all, I’m feeling optimistic about Atlanta’s ability to bounce back. With some better luck and timing, the top 5-6 hitters in the order should be able to produce enough to give them a good chance to win over the next few weeks. And when Acuña reclaims his place at the top of the order and Verdugo comes up to fill a spot near the bottom, they should start scoring runs in bunches.
There are still plenty of reasons to be concerned, no doubt. But, if you’d like to be looking for some sort of reason for hope, the signs of a breakout are there. Hopefully that bears during this week’s series against the Phillies.
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