<img alt="Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/C1bLD4_lZ2iSKPee9ssMjiBXyrE=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73967977/2204632722.0.jpg">
Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins/Getty Images
Well, at least Sandy Alcantara’s back, because a lot of this roster looks bad. Ah, the Miami Marlins. Whether they’re serving in their usual position at-or-near the bottom of the NL East or they’re shocking the baseball world with an appearance (or even a deep run) in October, this is a team that’s spent most of its existence with one eye set firmly on the future. This appears to be one of those years. While the Marlins may not be moribund in 2025, it’s still very tough to see them as serious contenders this season.
How did they do in 2024?
The Marlins brought up the rear in the NL East once again, as they suffered through the fourth 100-loss season they’ve had in franchise history. One of the main reasons why they ended up finishing last for the first time since 2019 was due to the fact that they lost all-world hurler Sandy Alcantara for the entire 2024 season to recovery from Tommy John surgery. While he may not have been as dominant in 2023 as he was in 2022, it’s still extremely tough to make up for losing a pitcher who could not only give you at our near 200 innings a season but could do so at an elite-ish level, as well.
In Alcantara’s absence, the Marlins had a real problem on their hands. Or, well, even more of a problem. Their rotation finished dead last in MLB in fWAR, as it took 20 different starters to get them through the season, and just one (Ryan Weathers) crested 1.0 fWAR. They gave 17 starts to Roddery Munoz and his -1.6 fWAR (ouch), which more or less cancelled out the contributions of Weathers and Trevor Rogers combined (ouch ouch). Braxton Garrett was a bright spot for a while, but he also went down with Tommy John surgery after just seven starts; Jesus Luzardo missed much of the year with a lumbar stress reaction.
And, of course, the bats were the bats we’ve become accustomed to in Miami — pretty punchless, finishing bottom five across a suite of offensive metrics. The defense wasn’t much better, either, and so the Marlins finished as a bottom-five team in position player value.
The lone bright spot was the bullpen, which finished second in MLB in fWAR with a whopping 7.0. Calvin Faucher and Declanon Cronin were excellent, though both benefited from a teeny-tiny HR/FB ratio. The Marlins had eight different relievers finish at 0.7 fWAR or above, which is kind of crazy, considering they used 36 different relievers in total.
Fundamentally, it was a pretty disappointing season for a team that came into the year with a .500-ish talent level, as their starters were destroyed by injury and then the team sold off a bunch of useful parts at the Trade Deadline. Only the woeful White Sox missed their central estimate projected win total by more than the Marlins.
What did they do in the offseason?
In true Marlins fashion, they mostly just kept selling stuff. Jake Burger was traded to the Rangers. Luzardo went to the Phillies. Vidal Brujan went to the Cubs. They... signed Cal Quantrill, and that’s mostly a wrap.
Perhaps more notable, though not necessarily more surprising, is that the Marlins fired pretty much their entire coaching staff and major league support structure in the offseason. Clayton McCullough, the first base coach for the reigning champ Dodgers, will be their new skipper, replacing Skip Schumaker. President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix did not have a chance to clean house last offseason after the Marlins’ surprising playoff berth in 2023, but their 100-loss year gave him all the cover he needed to do so, and the result is a roster with few veterans, few obligations, but also not much of a puncher’s chance in the near term.
What’s expected of them in 2025?
The Marlins come in with very modest expectations — like, not being the worst team in the NL levels of modest. Their talent level is probably somewhere in the low-to-mid-70 wins range, but the problem is that they have to deal with the Braves, Phillies, and Mets 13 times each, which pushes them down towards something like a 70-win central projection. They’re not the Rockies or White Sox, but they’re probably notably worse than all the other teams.
On a position-by-position basis, expectations are low. They are projected for bottom five performance at: 1B, 3B, LF, CF, DH, RP; they are projected for bottom ten performance at: C, 2B, SS, RF, and SP.
To the extent they have bright spots, like Xavier Edwards (3.1 WAR central estimate projection) and Sandy Alcantara (3.5 WAR central estimate projection), those are dulled a bit by things like Edwards massively outhitting his xwOBA in 2024 and Alcantara’s aforementioned return from injury.
To the extent this team can even suffer large blows, they did with regard to Jesus Sanchez, who will now miss some time with an oblique ailment. The Marlins already had issues with offensive production from the corners; things look even more dire with Sanchez primed to miss time and potentially have the oblique troubles linger.
Braves 2024 head-to-head
As mentioned earlier, the Braves have beat up on the Marlins a fair bit — not just during their current run, but even during the rebuild when they were mostly a speed bump for other teams. You have to go back to 2014 to find a point where the Marlins were actually a problem for the Braves.
The Braves went 9-4 against the Marlins last year. They nearly lost their first series of the year against them, but were bailed out by Marcell Ozuna’s miraculous game-winning homer off Tanner Scott. They then swept them in Atlanta, including a walkoff against Scott to cap the sweep, split a four-game set to start August, and then took another series against them late in the year, with the final game of that set descending into a silly-season 5-4 victory.
In 2025, the Braves will face the Marlins for their homer opener on April 4, and then won’t play them again until late June, for a three-game weekend set in Miami. There’ll also be a four-game set in Atlanta in early August, and they’ll wrap up their season series in Miami in late August. (The Braves play the Nationals six times in September, but don’t play any other NL East club after August 31.)
<img alt="Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/C1bLD4_lZ2iSKPee9ssMjiBXyrE=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73967977/2204632722.0.jpg">
Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins/Getty Images
Well, at least Sandy Alcantara’s back, because a lot of this roster looks bad. Ah, the Miami Marlins. Whether they’re serving in their usual position at-or-near the bottom of the NL East or they’re shocking the baseball world with an appearance (or even a deep run) in October, this is a team that’s spent most of its existence with one eye set firmly on the future. This appears to be one of those years. While the Marlins may not be moribund in 2025, it’s still very tough to see them as serious contenders this season.
How did they do in 2024?
The Marlins brought up the rear in the NL East once again, as they suffered through the fourth 100-loss season they’ve had in franchise history. One of the main reasons why they ended up finishing last for the first time since 2019 was due to the fact that they lost all-world hurler Sandy Alcantara for the entire 2024 season to recovery from Tommy John surgery. While he may not have been as dominant in 2023 as he was in 2022, it’s still extremely tough to make up for losing a pitcher who could not only give you at our near 200 innings a season but could do so at an elite-ish level, as well.
In Alcantara’s absence, the Marlins had a real problem on their hands. Or, well, even more of a problem. Their rotation finished dead last in MLB in fWAR, as it took 20 different starters to get them through the season, and just one (Ryan Weathers) crested 1.0 fWAR. They gave 17 starts to Roddery Munoz and his -1.6 fWAR (ouch), which more or less cancelled out the contributions of Weathers and Trevor Rogers combined (ouch ouch). Braxton Garrett was a bright spot for a while, but he also went down with Tommy John surgery after just seven starts; Jesus Luzardo missed much of the year with a lumbar stress reaction.
And, of course, the bats were the bats we’ve become accustomed to in Miami — pretty punchless, finishing bottom five across a suite of offensive metrics. The defense wasn’t much better, either, and so the Marlins finished as a bottom-five team in position player value.
The lone bright spot was the bullpen, which finished second in MLB in fWAR with a whopping 7.0. Calvin Faucher and Declanon Cronin were excellent, though both benefited from a teeny-tiny HR/FB ratio. The Marlins had eight different relievers finish at 0.7 fWAR or above, which is kind of crazy, considering they used 36 different relievers in total.
Fundamentally, it was a pretty disappointing season for a team that came into the year with a .500-ish talent level, as their starters were destroyed by injury and then the team sold off a bunch of useful parts at the Trade Deadline. Only the woeful White Sox missed their central estimate projected win total by more than the Marlins.
What did they do in the offseason?
In true Marlins fashion, they mostly just kept selling stuff. Jake Burger was traded to the Rangers. Luzardo went to the Phillies. Vidal Brujan went to the Cubs. They... signed Cal Quantrill, and that’s mostly a wrap.
Perhaps more notable, though not necessarily more surprising, is that the Marlins fired pretty much their entire coaching staff and major league support structure in the offseason. Clayton McCullough, the first base coach for the reigning champ Dodgers, will be their new skipper, replacing Skip Schumaker. President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix did not have a chance to clean house last offseason after the Marlins’ surprising playoff berth in 2023, but their 100-loss year gave him all the cover he needed to do so, and the result is a roster with few veterans, few obligations, but also not much of a puncher’s chance in the near term.
What’s expected of them in 2025?
The Marlins come in with very modest expectations — like, not being the worst team in the NL levels of modest. Their talent level is probably somewhere in the low-to-mid-70 wins range, but the problem is that they have to deal with the Braves, Phillies, and Mets 13 times each, which pushes them down towards something like a 70-win central projection. They’re not the Rockies or White Sox, but they’re probably notably worse than all the other teams.
On a position-by-position basis, expectations are low. They are projected for bottom five performance at: 1B, 3B, LF, CF, DH, RP; they are projected for bottom ten performance at: C, 2B, SS, RF, and SP.
To the extent they have bright spots, like Xavier Edwards (3.1 WAR central estimate projection) and Sandy Alcantara (3.5 WAR central estimate projection), those are dulled a bit by things like Edwards massively outhitting his xwOBA in 2024 and Alcantara’s aforementioned return from injury.
To the extent this team can even suffer large blows, they did with regard to Jesus Sanchez, who will now miss some time with an oblique ailment. The Marlins already had issues with offensive production from the corners; things look even more dire with Sanchez primed to miss time and potentially have the oblique troubles linger.
Braves 2024 head-to-head
As mentioned earlier, the Braves have beat up on the Marlins a fair bit — not just during their current run, but even during the rebuild when they were mostly a speed bump for other teams. You have to go back to 2014 to find a point where the Marlins were actually a problem for the Braves.
The Braves went 9-4 against the Marlins last year. They nearly lost their first series of the year against them, but were bailed out by Marcell Ozuna’s miraculous game-winning homer off Tanner Scott. They then swept them in Atlanta, including a walkoff against Scott to cap the sweep, split a four-game set to start August, and then took another series against them late in the year, with the final game of that set descending into a silly-season 5-4 victory.
In 2025, the Braves will face the Marlins for their homer opener on April 4, and then won’t play them again until late June, for a three-game weekend set in Miami. There’ll also be a four-game set in Atlanta in early August, and they’ll wrap up their season series in Miami in late August. (The Braves play the Nationals six times in September, but don’t play any other NL East club after August 31.)
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