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Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
It would’ve been incredible if Matt Olson repeated what he did in 2023. Still, he was unable to come close in 2024 to what he did during that career year. The 2023 Atlanta Braves were historically good as a team at the plate and one of the biggest reasons behind that success was Matt Olson delivering a career year with his bat. As such, the pressure was on for Olson to deliver a worthy encore performance and while he had a fine season for your average big league first baseman, it was a big step in the wrong direction when it came to reaching the standards that Olson had set for himself so far.
How Acquired
The Braves traded for Matt Olson in a a deal that essentially signaled the end of Freddie Freeman’s time in Atlanta. Oakland got Ryan Cusick, Joey Estes, Shea Langeliers and Cristian Pache in exchange for the first baseman who was entering his age-28 season and coming off of a 5.0 fWAR season for the A’s in 2021. Almost immediately after the trade was made, the Braves inked Olson to an 8-year, $168 million contract extension with a club option for another season worth $20 million.
What were the expectations?
The expectations for Matt Olson were sky high following an incredible 2023 season. Olson recorded career-highs across the board — He finished with his best full-season marks in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA, xwOBA, wRC+ and fWAR. While Olson’s defense may have taken a step back in terms of OAA, it was still hard to find much of anything wrong with his overall body of work in 2023. The clear and obvious hope was that Olson would continue to put up incredible numbers alongside his star-studded teammates in Atlanta’s infield.
2024 Results
The rocket ship that Matt Olson was flying in in 2023 came crashing back down to Earth in 2024. Now granted, hitting .247/.333/.457 with a .339 wOBA and a 117 wRC+ and 29 home runs isn’t the worst thing in the world and he still finished among the top-10 first baseman in baseball when it came to qualified first basemen. With that being said, there was a clear drop-off in performance for Olson as he was unable to really sustain the incredible production that he delivered in 2023. You can’t even point to injuries, either — Olson played 162 games for the third straight season and this was after he played 156 games during his final season with the A’s. Injuries and underperformance played a major role in hurting the Braves in 2024 and in Matt Olson’s case, it was clearly underperformance from the level that he had reached in 2023.
What went right?
For what it’s worth, Olson certainly ended the season on a high note. September was his best month of the year, which is when he hit .319/.438/.516 with a .411 wOBA, 165 wRC+ and 4 home runs over 112 plate appearances. This was after he finished August with a .264/.339.573 slash line with .379 wOBA, 144 wRC+ and 8 dingers over 124 plate appearances in August. Similarly to how Austin Riley was clearly heating up before a wayward fastball ended his season, Matt Olson also took over half the season to figure things out before he started cooking like he used to in 2023.
This is what Olson was getting up to in late-August:
Also, Olson’s defense returned to the lofty standards that he had set for himself during his time in Oakland. He finished with a career high in DRS (13) and also his OAA bounced back from -4 in 2023 to 4 in 2024. His work with the bat may have been a bit inconsistent but his glove work was right where it needed to be.
What went wrong?
Matt Olson’s power numbers cratered in 2024 when compared to what he did in 2023. I don’t think anybody was expecting him to hit another 54 dingers in 2024 but at the same time, I don’t think anybody expected that home run number to drop all the way to 29, either. Also, his Isolated Power went down over 100 points — from .321 in 2023 to just .210 in 2024. That Isolated Power number was the lowest that Olson had produced since 2018, which is when he finished with .207 and another 29 home runs back then.
So what was the deal, here? Well, according to Baseball Savant, Matt Olson saw 1,786 fastballs in 2023 and hit .316 against those heaters with an xBA of .292, a slugging percentage of .630 and an xSLG of .578. In 2024, Olson saw 1,777 fastballs and he hit .262 with a .268 xBA against them, also adding .499 slugging with a a .496 xSLG as well. His numbers against offspeed pitches took a big drop as well — In 2023, he saw 460 pitches termed as “offspeed” by Baseball Savant and he hit .277 against them with an xBA of .236, a slugging percentage of .617 and an xSLG of .497. In 2024, he came back down to Earth in this regard as well and hit .235 with a .249 xBA and slugged .485 with a .435 xSLG. He also hit 17 home runs off of breaking balls in 2023 but only hit five off of breaking pitches in 2024.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/pBpnLAkwTnWqG3UJBZaOmQO3ekQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25807378/olson_ba_profile_2023_to_2024.gif">
baseballsavant.mlb.com
Simply put, it was just a down year across the board when it came to Matt Olson’s work at the plate. Maybe that’ll change in the future — I sure hope it does!
2025 Outlook
In that vein, the Braves have no choice but to hope that what they saw at the plate for the vast majority of the season from Matt Olson was a blip and that the version that they saw in 2023 and in the tail end of 2024 is the real version. Olson will be entering his age-31 season in 2025 so there is a question of whether or not we’ve already seen the best of what Olson has to offer. Still, Olson is still a high-tier first baseman in all of baseball and even a very slight improvement for Olson in 2025 would continue to make that a true statement.
<img alt="New York Mets v Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tpyqXJzb26v9kfk2kmqwAJJ8fe4=/0x0:5104x3403/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73812642/2173490286.0.jpg">
Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
It would’ve been incredible if Matt Olson repeated what he did in 2023. Still, he was unable to come close in 2024 to what he did during that career year. The 2023 Atlanta Braves were historically good as a team at the plate and one of the biggest reasons behind that success was Matt Olson delivering a career year with his bat. As such, the pressure was on for Olson to deliver a worthy encore performance and while he had a fine season for your average big league first baseman, it was a big step in the wrong direction when it came to reaching the standards that Olson had set for himself so far.
How Acquired
The Braves traded for Matt Olson in a a deal that essentially signaled the end of Freddie Freeman’s time in Atlanta. Oakland got Ryan Cusick, Joey Estes, Shea Langeliers and Cristian Pache in exchange for the first baseman who was entering his age-28 season and coming off of a 5.0 fWAR season for the A’s in 2021. Almost immediately after the trade was made, the Braves inked Olson to an 8-year, $168 million contract extension with a club option for another season worth $20 million.
What were the expectations?
The expectations for Matt Olson were sky high following an incredible 2023 season. Olson recorded career-highs across the board — He finished with his best full-season marks in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA, xwOBA, wRC+ and fWAR. While Olson’s defense may have taken a step back in terms of OAA, it was still hard to find much of anything wrong with his overall body of work in 2023. The clear and obvious hope was that Olson would continue to put up incredible numbers alongside his star-studded teammates in Atlanta’s infield.
2024 Results
The rocket ship that Matt Olson was flying in in 2023 came crashing back down to Earth in 2024. Now granted, hitting .247/.333/.457 with a .339 wOBA and a 117 wRC+ and 29 home runs isn’t the worst thing in the world and he still finished among the top-10 first baseman in baseball when it came to qualified first basemen. With that being said, there was a clear drop-off in performance for Olson as he was unable to really sustain the incredible production that he delivered in 2023. You can’t even point to injuries, either — Olson played 162 games for the third straight season and this was after he played 156 games during his final season with the A’s. Injuries and underperformance played a major role in hurting the Braves in 2024 and in Matt Olson’s case, it was clearly underperformance from the level that he had reached in 2023.
What went right?
For what it’s worth, Olson certainly ended the season on a high note. September was his best month of the year, which is when he hit .319/.438/.516 with a .411 wOBA, 165 wRC+ and 4 home runs over 112 plate appearances. This was after he finished August with a .264/.339.573 slash line with .379 wOBA, 144 wRC+ and 8 dingers over 124 plate appearances in August. Similarly to how Austin Riley was clearly heating up before a wayward fastball ended his season, Matt Olson also took over half the season to figure things out before he started cooking like he used to in 2023.
This is what Olson was getting up to in late-August:
Also, Olson’s defense returned to the lofty standards that he had set for himself during his time in Oakland. He finished with a career high in DRS (13) and also his OAA bounced back from -4 in 2023 to 4 in 2024. His work with the bat may have been a bit inconsistent but his glove work was right where it needed to be.
What went wrong?
Matt Olson’s power numbers cratered in 2024 when compared to what he did in 2023. I don’t think anybody was expecting him to hit another 54 dingers in 2024 but at the same time, I don’t think anybody expected that home run number to drop all the way to 29, either. Also, his Isolated Power went down over 100 points — from .321 in 2023 to just .210 in 2024. That Isolated Power number was the lowest that Olson had produced since 2018, which is when he finished with .207 and another 29 home runs back then.
So what was the deal, here? Well, according to Baseball Savant, Matt Olson saw 1,786 fastballs in 2023 and hit .316 against those heaters with an xBA of .292, a slugging percentage of .630 and an xSLG of .578. In 2024, Olson saw 1,777 fastballs and he hit .262 with a .268 xBA against them, also adding .499 slugging with a a .496 xSLG as well. His numbers against offspeed pitches took a big drop as well — In 2023, he saw 460 pitches termed as “offspeed” by Baseball Savant and he hit .277 against them with an xBA of .236, a slugging percentage of .617 and an xSLG of .497. In 2024, he came back down to Earth in this regard as well and hit .235 with a .249 xBA and slugged .485 with a .435 xSLG. He also hit 17 home runs off of breaking balls in 2023 but only hit five off of breaking pitches in 2024.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/pBpnLAkwTnWqG3UJBZaOmQO3ekQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25807378/olson_ba_profile_2023_to_2024.gif">
baseballsavant.mlb.com
Simply put, it was just a down year across the board when it came to Matt Olson’s work at the plate. Maybe that’ll change in the future — I sure hope it does!
2025 Outlook
In that vein, the Braves have no choice but to hope that what they saw at the plate for the vast majority of the season from Matt Olson was a blip and that the version that they saw in 2023 and in the tail end of 2024 is the real version. Olson will be entering his age-31 season in 2025 so there is a question of whether or not we’ve already seen the best of what Olson has to offer. Still, Olson is still a high-tier first baseman in all of baseball and even a very slight improvement for Olson in 2025 would continue to make that a true statement.
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