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Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Braves need an OF who can consistently get on base and bat left-handed. Meet Jurickson Profar. Even after they sent chills through the hearts of 29 other MLB franchises by signing OF Bryan De La Cruz to a non-guaranteed contract yesterday, the Atlanta Braves still find themselves in need of an everyday corner OF for 2025.
There are two locks for the outfield in 2025. Michael Harris II will man center field, and most in Braves country are expecting a huge year out of him following his red-hot finish to the 2024 season. The computers don’t disagree – Steamer projects Harris to be a top 6 position player in the NL, with only Juan Soto, Fernando Tatís Jr, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Francisco Lindor receiving more bullish fWAR projections. Right field will ultimately be patrolled by former MVP Ronald Acuña Jr, who is expected to return from his second ACL surgery sometime in the first two months of the season. Despite the major injury and his uncharacteristically average performance in the pre-injury portion of his 2024 season, Steamer still expects Acuña Jr. to play like a superstar when healthy, projecting him for 5.0 fWAR across 131 games.
Left field, however, is a hole that GM Alex Anthopoulos has found difficult to plug. Over the past three seasons, Braves left fielders have produced just 2.0 fWAR, a bottom 5 total in MLB. AA performed some financial gymnastics to acquire Jarred Kelenic last offseason with the intention of playing him in LF everyday, but wound up backtracking on that plan before the season even started by signing Adam Duvall as his platoon partner late in spring training.
The hope was that the former top prospect would be able to finally realize his potential in Atlanta. Instead, Kelenic looked just like the guy he was in Seattle – brief displays of his immense talent, but far too much inconsistency and swing and miss to be an everyday player on a contending team. All in all, he produced an 86 wRC+, -2 Fielding Run Value between all three OF spots, and just 0.5 fWAR in 449 plate appearances.
That 86 wRC+ also matches Kelenic’s career mark across 1,423 PA, so the Braves should not build any plans around the concept of a breakout. Coming off their historic offensive season in 2023, a high-risk high-reward play on Kelenic made a lot of sense. Unfortunately, it didn’t pan out, and now we have one more year of data showing that Kelenic isn’t yet ready for a major role on a contender. He’ll have a chance to show improvement as part of a platoon in RF while Acuña works his way back (the newly acquired De La Cruz being one option for the short side of that platoon). But, given the team’s offensive struggles in 2024, the Braves need to find a legitimate upgrade in LF rather than relying on a guy who had to be replaced by a waiver wire pickup last season. (Hope you’re having a lovely day, Ramón Laureano.)
Ideally, the LF addition they make would bat left-handed, get on base at a high clip, and have solid contact skills. A bat like that could slot into the 2-hole behind Acuña and lengthen the lineup by having hitters like Harris or Ozzie Albies bat lower in the order.
With Juan Soto heading to Queens, Michael Conforto signing with the Dodgers, and Kyle Tucker traded to the Cubs, there is just one name left that fully fits that bill. And with that, we’ve finally reached the part of the article where we get to talk about the guy whose name is in the title.
The narrative on Jurickson Profar has been that, while he was great in 2024, you shouldn’t fully trust the breakout because he had never been good before that. That isn’t exactly true, though.
It certainly is true that he was better in 2024 than he ever had been. He had a 139 wRC+, .364 xwOBA, and 4.3 fWAR (previous career highs were 113 wRC+, .338 xwOBA, and 2.4 fWAR). He’s always had good plate discipline and contact abilities, but before 2024 he struggled to hit the ball with authority.
Last offseason, however, he worked with Fernando Tatís Sr. to try and add more power. The results? He changed from a toe tap to a leg kick, made a conscious effort to swing harder, and posted an average exit velocity that was 3.6 mph higher than any other season of his career. That is a massive jump. Think of it this way – in 2024, the closest Brave to Profar in average exit velocity was Matt Olson. In 2023, it was Orlando Arcia, and Arcia was well ahead. As if that wasn’t impressive enough, he made these gains in power production without sacrificing an ounce of his plate discipline and contact skills.
All that to say, the gains he made in 2024 were very legitimate. There isn’t anything in his profile to suggest he just had a lucky year. In case you’re looking for more reason to be confident in him going forward, we’ll take a moment to dispel the narrative that this was his first good season. The bottom line - we had never seen him at this level before, but Profar has in fact been an above average player at several points in his career before the 2024 season.
Not 2023, though. 2023 was absolutely horrific for Profar, as he posted a 78 wRC+ and -1.6 fWAR in 125 games. This was the one season since 2020 that Profar wasn’t with San Diego, as he had signed a one year deal with the Rockies. Colorado has a reputation for boosting offense, and it’s true that the high altitude allows the ball to travel farther, and their massive outfield is a dream come true for any hitter’s BABIP. What isn’t talked about is much is how being a Rockie can actually be quite tough on hitters. Pitches with the same spin rates and velocities move differently at Coors Field than they do anywhere else, and it can be challenging for hitters to see pitches that look the same out of the hand have varying movement from series to series.
After slashing .236/.316/.364 for a 74 wRC+ in 111 games, the Rockies understandably released Profar. The Padres picked him back up, and he suddenly regained his form, hitting .295/.367/.409 for a 119 wRC+ in his final 14 games.
Now, I don’t love the “if we ignore the bad part” type of analysis, but given the challenges faced by Rockies hitters and the subsequent improvement as soon as he was taken out of Coors, let’s take a look at Profar’s history if you remove his time in Colorado.
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Considering that, you could reasonably expect him to be a 2.5ish fWAR hitter in 2025. Steamer, for instance, has him pegged for a 116 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR.
Now, 2.2 fWAR is by no means superstar production. However, given the contracts expected to be signed by the other free agent outfielders in his range, and knowing that he’s coming off a massive season that showed real offensive growth that has the potential to stick, I think that the team that signs Profar will have signed the outfielder that provides the most surplus value relative to how he is paid.
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
In summary, he’s coming off a better season than the others, is projected for a very similar season to the others, but is predicted to get contract smaller than what Tyler O’Neill received from Baltimore.
Looking beyond their expected contract values, Profar differs from the other free agent OF in that he is exactly the type of hitter Atlanta needs.
First, his plate discipline. He takes tons of walks, doesn’t strike out much, and gets on base at an excellent clip. Take a look at the other free agent OF in his tier and how he stands out in terms of his plate discipline and on-base abilities:
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Also, he’s a switch-hitter with relatively even splits:
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
The Braves need more help against righties. Profar can deliver against both sides.
So, there you have it – my case for Jurickson Profar, Atlanta Brave.
To be clear, Profar isn’t perfect. He’s not as bad as Jorge Soler in the outfield, but he’s definitely a below-average defensive corner outfielder, which means he has to hit to be of any value. He’s also a Scott Boras client, And while I reject the notion that he has never been good before 2024, his detractors could easily point out that he has been extremely inconsistent on offense over the past seven years. It’s as if he has a curse placed on him in odd years:
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
With the meaningful changes he made to his swing and approach this past offseason, however, I believe his bat will be more consistent going forward. If I’m right, he would be an excellent fit for the 2-hole in the Braves lineup.
A final note – Profar is a native of Curaçao, where the Braves have always had deep ties. Over ⅓ of all Curaçaoan players in MLB history have played for the Braves, a legacy that began with Andruw Jones and includes memorable names such as Jair Jurrjens, Kenley Jansen, and Andrelton Simmons. Currently, the Curaçao-Atlanta connection just so happens to be fulfilled by a personal friend of Jurickson Profar – one Ozzie Albies. Could they be wearing the same uniform when they report to Spring Training in a couple of months?
<img alt="Division Series - San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers - Game Five" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/sUYUQB_SphZsxbZtxlbcTKBFA_0=/0x0:7774x5183/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73790244/2177242388.0.jpg">
Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Braves need an OF who can consistently get on base and bat left-handed. Meet Jurickson Profar. Even after they sent chills through the hearts of 29 other MLB franchises by signing OF Bryan De La Cruz to a non-guaranteed contract yesterday, the Atlanta Braves still find themselves in need of an everyday corner OF for 2025.
There are two locks for the outfield in 2025. Michael Harris II will man center field, and most in Braves country are expecting a huge year out of him following his red-hot finish to the 2024 season. The computers don’t disagree – Steamer projects Harris to be a top 6 position player in the NL, with only Juan Soto, Fernando Tatís Jr, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Francisco Lindor receiving more bullish fWAR projections. Right field will ultimately be patrolled by former MVP Ronald Acuña Jr, who is expected to return from his second ACL surgery sometime in the first two months of the season. Despite the major injury and his uncharacteristically average performance in the pre-injury portion of his 2024 season, Steamer still expects Acuña Jr. to play like a superstar when healthy, projecting him for 5.0 fWAR across 131 games.
Left field, however, is a hole that GM Alex Anthopoulos has found difficult to plug. Over the past three seasons, Braves left fielders have produced just 2.0 fWAR, a bottom 5 total in MLB. AA performed some financial gymnastics to acquire Jarred Kelenic last offseason with the intention of playing him in LF everyday, but wound up backtracking on that plan before the season even started by signing Adam Duvall as his platoon partner late in spring training.
The hope was that the former top prospect would be able to finally realize his potential in Atlanta. Instead, Kelenic looked just like the guy he was in Seattle – brief displays of his immense talent, but far too much inconsistency and swing and miss to be an everyday player on a contending team. All in all, he produced an 86 wRC+, -2 Fielding Run Value between all three OF spots, and just 0.5 fWAR in 449 plate appearances.
That 86 wRC+ also matches Kelenic’s career mark across 1,423 PA, so the Braves should not build any plans around the concept of a breakout. Coming off their historic offensive season in 2023, a high-risk high-reward play on Kelenic made a lot of sense. Unfortunately, it didn’t pan out, and now we have one more year of data showing that Kelenic isn’t yet ready for a major role on a contender. He’ll have a chance to show improvement as part of a platoon in RF while Acuña works his way back (the newly acquired De La Cruz being one option for the short side of that platoon). But, given the team’s offensive struggles in 2024, the Braves need to find a legitimate upgrade in LF rather than relying on a guy who had to be replaced by a waiver wire pickup last season. (Hope you’re having a lovely day, Ramón Laureano.)
Ideally, the LF addition they make would bat left-handed, get on base at a high clip, and have solid contact skills. A bat like that could slot into the 2-hole behind Acuña and lengthen the lineup by having hitters like Harris or Ozzie Albies bat lower in the order.
With Juan Soto heading to Queens, Michael Conforto signing with the Dodgers, and Kyle Tucker traded to the Cubs, there is just one name left that fully fits that bill. And with that, we’ve finally reached the part of the article where we get to talk about the guy whose name is in the title.
The narrative on Jurickson Profar has been that, while he was great in 2024, you shouldn’t fully trust the breakout because he had never been good before that. That isn’t exactly true, though.
It certainly is true that he was better in 2024 than he ever had been. He had a 139 wRC+, .364 xwOBA, and 4.3 fWAR (previous career highs were 113 wRC+, .338 xwOBA, and 2.4 fWAR). He’s always had good plate discipline and contact abilities, but before 2024 he struggled to hit the ball with authority.
Last offseason, however, he worked with Fernando Tatís Sr. to try and add more power. The results? He changed from a toe tap to a leg kick, made a conscious effort to swing harder, and posted an average exit velocity that was 3.6 mph higher than any other season of his career. That is a massive jump. Think of it this way – in 2024, the closest Brave to Profar in average exit velocity was Matt Olson. In 2023, it was Orlando Arcia, and Arcia was well ahead. As if that wasn’t impressive enough, he made these gains in power production without sacrificing an ounce of his plate discipline and contact skills.
All that to say, the gains he made in 2024 were very legitimate. There isn’t anything in his profile to suggest he just had a lucky year. In case you’re looking for more reason to be confident in him going forward, we’ll take a moment to dispel the narrative that this was his first good season. The bottom line - we had never seen him at this level before, but Profar has in fact been an above average player at several points in his career before the 2024 season.
Not 2023, though. 2023 was absolutely horrific for Profar, as he posted a 78 wRC+ and -1.6 fWAR in 125 games. This was the one season since 2020 that Profar wasn’t with San Diego, as he had signed a one year deal with the Rockies. Colorado has a reputation for boosting offense, and it’s true that the high altitude allows the ball to travel farther, and their massive outfield is a dream come true for any hitter’s BABIP. What isn’t talked about is much is how being a Rockie can actually be quite tough on hitters. Pitches with the same spin rates and velocities move differently at Coors Field than they do anywhere else, and it can be challenging for hitters to see pitches that look the same out of the hand have varying movement from series to series.
After slashing .236/.316/.364 for a 74 wRC+ in 111 games, the Rockies understandably released Profar. The Padres picked him back up, and he suddenly regained his form, hitting .295/.367/.409 for a 119 wRC+ in his final 14 games.
Now, I don’t love the “if we ignore the bad part” type of analysis, but given the challenges faced by Rockies hitters and the subsequent improvement as soon as he was taken out of Coors, let’s take a look at Profar’s history if you remove his time in Colorado.
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Considering that, you could reasonably expect him to be a 2.5ish fWAR hitter in 2025. Steamer, for instance, has him pegged for a 116 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR.
Now, 2.2 fWAR is by no means superstar production. However, given the contracts expected to be signed by the other free agent outfielders in his range, and knowing that he’s coming off a massive season that showed real offensive growth that has the potential to stick, I think that the team that signs Profar will have signed the outfielder that provides the most surplus value relative to how he is paid.
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
In summary, he’s coming off a better season than the others, is projected for a very similar season to the others, but is predicted to get contract smaller than what Tyler O’Neill received from Baltimore.
Looking beyond their expected contract values, Profar differs from the other free agent OF in that he is exactly the type of hitter Atlanta needs.
First, his plate discipline. He takes tons of walks, doesn’t strike out much, and gets on base at an excellent clip. Take a look at the other free agent OF in his tier and how he stands out in terms of his plate discipline and on-base abilities:
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Also, he’s a switch-hitter with relatively even splits:
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
The Braves need more help against righties. Profar can deliver against both sides.
So, there you have it – my case for Jurickson Profar, Atlanta Brave.
To be clear, Profar isn’t perfect. He’s not as bad as Jorge Soler in the outfield, but he’s definitely a below-average defensive corner outfielder, which means he has to hit to be of any value. He’s also a Scott Boras client, And while I reject the notion that he has never been good before 2024, his detractors could easily point out that he has been extremely inconsistent on offense over the past seven years. It’s as if he has a curse placed on him in odd years:
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
With the meaningful changes he made to his swing and approach this past offseason, however, I believe his bat will be more consistent going forward. If I’m right, he would be an excellent fit for the 2-hole in the Braves lineup.
A final note – Profar is a native of Curaçao, where the Braves have always had deep ties. Over ⅓ of all Curaçaoan players in MLB history have played for the Braves, a legacy that began with Andruw Jones and includes memorable names such as Jair Jurrjens, Kenley Jansen, and Andrelton Simmons. Currently, the Curaçao-Atlanta connection just so happens to be fulfilled by a personal friend of Jurickson Profar – one Ozzie Albies. Could they be wearing the same uniform when they report to Spring Training in a couple of months?
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