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Mike Cardew / USA TODAY NETWORK
Anderson Pilar and Christian Cairo could be interesting depth for the Braves in 2025 The Atlanta Braves pulled off a bit of a surprise move, picking not one but two players in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Why was this a surprise? Well the Braves haven’t picked a player in the Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft since 2017, meaning zero picks since Alex Anthopoulos took the reins as General Manager. Well, they did it this year, and along with those two picks we’re going to look at all six players they took between both the major and minor league portions of the draft.
Anderson Pilar
The Braves selected Anderson Pilar from the Miami Marlins system with the 11th pick, and he’s definitely the more interesting of the two though to be quite honest neither players seem much to write home about. Pilar features primarily three pitches — a cutter, slider, and fastball — and while all three produce solid whiff rates he doesn’t have fantastic command of any of them. His 3.8% walk rate at Double-A this season may look good on paper, but he tended to just be grooving pitches and wasn’t missing many bats. His strikeout rates at Triple-A trended up significantly to 34.9%, but that came with a huge increase in walk rates to 11.1%. Pilar’s profile fits something the Braves seem to been targeting in amateur draft, in that he features a low release point that creates a flat approach angle. As such his fastball does play up in the zone despite below average vertical movement, and his overall profile is centered around the horizontal movement of his pitches. His sweeping slider was his most-effective pitch and he works with the cut fastball as his primary pitch, and while his overall arsenal is solid enough to work in a middle relief role he needs significant improvement in his command to lock down a long term major league role. Pilar’s mechanics are all over the place top-to-bottom, leading to him struggling to repeat with any sort of consistency.
Christian Cairo
Cairo is a bit of an odd pick, because players with the defense-first utility infield profile aren’t particularly hard to find in the open market for cheap. Cairo lacks the power necessary to stick as a starting shortstop, with his maximum exit velocity at Triple-A being 106 mph this season with a barrel rate below 2%, however there is a little glimmer of hope in the progress he made at the level. His hit tool is so weak that I wouldn’t be surprised to see him quickly returned to the Guardians, however mechanical tweaks towards the last couple of months of the season do improve my view of him. Primarily, while at Triple-A they removed the aspect of his loading process where his swing start down over his shoulder, shortening his swing path in a positive way that should allow him to find more consistent solid contact. This change may not have been the causal factor to his late-season improvement, and even with it his overall performance and projections aren’t particularly interesting, but he did see an improvement in average exit velocity from before and after August 1st of 86.6 mph to 88.3 mph, along with a hard hit rate increase from 22.5% to 28.3%. The Braves are weak on serviceable shortstop defenders at the moment, giving him value as depth on the infield, and the Braves rarely use their last man on the bench so he should be fairly easy to hide throughout the season.
Blane Abeyta
Moving on to the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft the Braves started out by picking out of the Yankees system, selecting right-handed pitcher Blake Abeyta. The 26 year old split time between Double-A and High-A this season, making a move to the bullpen at the end of the season where he finished out his final seven games in that role. I find Abeyta to be a better projection in a relief role, and like Pilar he fills that profile of a pitcher with a low release point. I think Abeyta’s numbers this season — 17.6% strikeout rate at both levels with low walk rates — could be a bit deceiving with his pitch utilization seeming to focus more on development over results. Abeyta focused heavily on developing his upper 80’s cut fastball, a pitch he spins well with good shape from his release point but which he had brutal struggles with the command of. It is clearly behind his fastball and slider at this point, the former sitting 91-94 and the latter in the low-80’s, but the slider-cutter combination could be interesting if he locks in his command of the cutter. He has clean mechanics and repeats well, so I have some faith he could figure out his command of the pitch in time. Abeyta also featured a changeup that sits in the mid-to-upper 80’s, a pitch he rarely uses and for good reason. It isn’t really a major league quality pitch, and while I would expect the Braves to use some sort of changeup if they were to try him as a starter I think they would completely rebuild that pitch.
Samuel Mejia
Moving into the second round of the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft the Braves went all the way down to the Single-A level of the Rays system and drafted Samuel Mejia. The 22 year old Mejia has been a very slow mover who has only ever pitched as a reliever, but I really could see the Braves deciding they think he is a starter. His pure stuff, for one, is not good enough to be anything more than a run-of-the-mill organizational reliever. While the Braves have unlocked velocity from guys in the past, it’s simply so easy to find pitchers with low-90’s heat and a solid slider that it’s hard to see that as the reason the Braves drafted him. So looking at the whole of his arsenal, he does have the depth to start. He throws a changeup that sits in the low-90’s with a solid velocity separation from his fastball, and his slider is a major-league quality offering. Mejia also has shown a cut-fastball on occasion. Overall he could be worth the experiment to move into a starting role, given his high strikeout rates and especially high slider whiff rates, his solid athleticism, and a core of three pitches that all flash the potential to sit around average.
Lizandro Espinoza
At the end of this the Braves threw in a couple of picks that are pretty much just organizational depth at positions of need. As mentioned, the Braves haven’t done a great job of injecting the system with shortstops, and Espinoza is a speedy player who can play the position well. He really just can’t hit, and he lacks raw power or the frame to grow into raw power. There’s nothing wrong with giving the system some cheap depth, it’s just that this isn’t really a player to be all that excited about long term.
Dylan Shockley
The 27 year old Shockley was drafted and signed in 2019, and in the five seasons he has played since he has appeared in a total of 165 games. So there are two ways to look at this. One, Shockley is a catcher and having a guy who can come off of the bench and catch games at the minor league level is always valuable. Again, depth. The other way — Shockley has a good arm. He pitched a couple of times last season and got up into the low-90’s, and did pitch in college with a 2.35 ERA in 21 relief appearances. It could be possible that the Braves are going to take a look at Shockley as a pitching conversion, which makes more sense to me than that they just wanted a random 27 year old catcher to plug into the system.
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Mike Cardew / USA TODAY NETWORK
Anderson Pilar and Christian Cairo could be interesting depth for the Braves in 2025 The Atlanta Braves pulled off a bit of a surprise move, picking not one but two players in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Why was this a surprise? Well the Braves haven’t picked a player in the Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft since 2017, meaning zero picks since Alex Anthopoulos took the reins as General Manager. Well, they did it this year, and along with those two picks we’re going to look at all six players they took between both the major and minor league portions of the draft.
Anderson Pilar
The Braves selected Anderson Pilar from the Miami Marlins system with the 11th pick, and he’s definitely the more interesting of the two though to be quite honest neither players seem much to write home about. Pilar features primarily three pitches — a cutter, slider, and fastball — and while all three produce solid whiff rates he doesn’t have fantastic command of any of them. His 3.8% walk rate at Double-A this season may look good on paper, but he tended to just be grooving pitches and wasn’t missing many bats. His strikeout rates at Triple-A trended up significantly to 34.9%, but that came with a huge increase in walk rates to 11.1%. Pilar’s profile fits something the Braves seem to been targeting in amateur draft, in that he features a low release point that creates a flat approach angle. As such his fastball does play up in the zone despite below average vertical movement, and his overall profile is centered around the horizontal movement of his pitches. His sweeping slider was his most-effective pitch and he works with the cut fastball as his primary pitch, and while his overall arsenal is solid enough to work in a middle relief role he needs significant improvement in his command to lock down a long term major league role. Pilar’s mechanics are all over the place top-to-bottom, leading to him struggling to repeat with any sort of consistency.
Christian Cairo
Cairo is a bit of an odd pick, because players with the defense-first utility infield profile aren’t particularly hard to find in the open market for cheap. Cairo lacks the power necessary to stick as a starting shortstop, with his maximum exit velocity at Triple-A being 106 mph this season with a barrel rate below 2%, however there is a little glimmer of hope in the progress he made at the level. His hit tool is so weak that I wouldn’t be surprised to see him quickly returned to the Guardians, however mechanical tweaks towards the last couple of months of the season do improve my view of him. Primarily, while at Triple-A they removed the aspect of his loading process where his swing start down over his shoulder, shortening his swing path in a positive way that should allow him to find more consistent solid contact. This change may not have been the causal factor to his late-season improvement, and even with it his overall performance and projections aren’t particularly interesting, but he did see an improvement in average exit velocity from before and after August 1st of 86.6 mph to 88.3 mph, along with a hard hit rate increase from 22.5% to 28.3%. The Braves are weak on serviceable shortstop defenders at the moment, giving him value as depth on the infield, and the Braves rarely use their last man on the bench so he should be fairly easy to hide throughout the season.
Blane Abeyta
Moving on to the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft the Braves started out by picking out of the Yankees system, selecting right-handed pitcher Blake Abeyta. The 26 year old split time between Double-A and High-A this season, making a move to the bullpen at the end of the season where he finished out his final seven games in that role. I find Abeyta to be a better projection in a relief role, and like Pilar he fills that profile of a pitcher with a low release point. I think Abeyta’s numbers this season — 17.6% strikeout rate at both levels with low walk rates — could be a bit deceiving with his pitch utilization seeming to focus more on development over results. Abeyta focused heavily on developing his upper 80’s cut fastball, a pitch he spins well with good shape from his release point but which he had brutal struggles with the command of. It is clearly behind his fastball and slider at this point, the former sitting 91-94 and the latter in the low-80’s, but the slider-cutter combination could be interesting if he locks in his command of the cutter. He has clean mechanics and repeats well, so I have some faith he could figure out his command of the pitch in time. Abeyta also featured a changeup that sits in the mid-to-upper 80’s, a pitch he rarely uses and for good reason. It isn’t really a major league quality pitch, and while I would expect the Braves to use some sort of changeup if they were to try him as a starter I think they would completely rebuild that pitch.
Samuel Mejia
Moving into the second round of the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft the Braves went all the way down to the Single-A level of the Rays system and drafted Samuel Mejia. The 22 year old Mejia has been a very slow mover who has only ever pitched as a reliever, but I really could see the Braves deciding they think he is a starter. His pure stuff, for one, is not good enough to be anything more than a run-of-the-mill organizational reliever. While the Braves have unlocked velocity from guys in the past, it’s simply so easy to find pitchers with low-90’s heat and a solid slider that it’s hard to see that as the reason the Braves drafted him. So looking at the whole of his arsenal, he does have the depth to start. He throws a changeup that sits in the low-90’s with a solid velocity separation from his fastball, and his slider is a major-league quality offering. Mejia also has shown a cut-fastball on occasion. Overall he could be worth the experiment to move into a starting role, given his high strikeout rates and especially high slider whiff rates, his solid athleticism, and a core of three pitches that all flash the potential to sit around average.
Lizandro Espinoza
At the end of this the Braves threw in a couple of picks that are pretty much just organizational depth at positions of need. As mentioned, the Braves haven’t done a great job of injecting the system with shortstops, and Espinoza is a speedy player who can play the position well. He really just can’t hit, and he lacks raw power or the frame to grow into raw power. There’s nothing wrong with giving the system some cheap depth, it’s just that this isn’t really a player to be all that excited about long term.
Dylan Shockley
The 27 year old Shockley was drafted and signed in 2019, and in the five seasons he has played since he has appeared in a total of 165 games. So there are two ways to look at this. One, Shockley is a catcher and having a guy who can come off of the bench and catch games at the minor league level is always valuable. Again, depth. The other way — Shockley has a good arm. He pitched a couple of times last season and got up into the low-90’s, and did pitch in college with a 2.35 ERA in 21 relief appearances. It could be possible that the Braves are going to take a look at Shockley as a pitching conversion, which makes more sense to me than that they just wanted a random 27 year old catcher to plug into the system.
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