<img alt="2024 Fall Stars Game between the American League Fall Stars and the National League Fall Stars" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BcQhUmZe58jtaActdjZ3FhNnQ9g=/0x0:4142x2761/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73778218/2183309570.0.jpg">
Photo by Jill Weisleder/MLB Photos via Getty Images
I did okay last year. I’m trying to proceed down the comeback trail this year. I don’t know if the Rule 5 Draft has gotten increasingly less relevant, but it sure feels that way. Teams now care a lot about roster flexibility, and savvy organizations are focused on skillsets and their own development strengths in a way where the waiver/cash considerations wire can be a more useful avenue for speculative additions than the Rule 5 Draft, which forces you to retain your choice on the active roster or lose them (provided the original team wants the player back, anyway). Even the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, which has no sticky restrictions, seems like a more canny avenue to poach players.
Nonetheless, every year, I go over the list of unprotected players and try to think through whom teams may actually want to take. In 2022, I did terribly. In 2023, I think I did okay — there were only ten major league Rule 5 selections, and of those ten, I highlighted three on my own list. Further, the fates of those ten picks were fairly interesting:
Mitch Spence was a fine backend starter/swingman for Oakland (I didn’t highlight him);
Matt Sauer was terrible for the Royals and ended up being returned to the Yankees (no highlight from me);
Anthony Molina lasted the whole season with the Rockies but didn’t really do anything useful as a reliever, and had some truly awful contact (mis)management (again, I didn’t highlight him);
Shane Drohan was injured and got returned (he was a guy I thought might get taken);
Nasim Nunez played great defense, as expected, and got lucky enough in 78 PAs to manage 0.4 fWAR, which is pretty impressive (another of my picks);
Ryan Fernandez had a great relief season for the Cardinals (I’m mad I didn’t have this guy on my radar, he was an unequivocal Rule 5 success after having a pretty unremarkable relief season in Triple-A before being picked);
The above goes double for Justin Slaten, who had a top-20 relief season overall, again after not really doing anything in 2023 that suggested his relief conversion was going to be a success (amusingly, the Red Sox lost Fernandez, but gained Slaten);
Deyvison de los Santos was another guy I highlighted; he was taken, returned, and later traded for by the Marlins, but never played in the majors in 2024;
Stephen Kolek was a generic relief guy, which isn’t that interesting in a Rule 5 Draft that featured both Fernandez and Slaten (not on my list); and, finally
Carson Coleman ended up being maybe the weirdest case of this draft — taken by the Rangers from the Yankees despite being down with an elbow injury, he was ultimately just sent back to the Yankees after the end of the season, making him the “but why.gif” pick of the draft.
So, I did okay. Can I do better this year? Let’s see! Onto the names!
Ye olde “use a starter for a reliever one year” bucket and/or other pitchers of pseudo-interest
Dane Acker (RP, Rangers). Acker transitioned to relief last year and salvaged a Double-A season (and really a minor league career) where he was not actually very good at starting. He was dominant in a handful of relief outings, though, issuing just two walks in eight relief outings, most of which were longer than an inning. It’s a speculative add but might end up being a way to get a reliever more cheaply than paying free agent prices for one.
Ian Bedell (SP, Cardinals). Perhaps the most generic “this starter was bad in Triple-A” guy I could dream up, Bedell looks like a fringy starter that could sit in a mop-up role for a year somewhere before a team sends him back down and tries to improve on his outlook. Again, teams are far less loath to do that these days than they have been in the past, but I guess Bedell makes it on this list for old times’ sake.
Chander Champlain (SP, Royals). The reason why Champlain is on this list is because his arsenal already screams “reliever.” In some ways, taking a starter not just to stash him as a reliever for a year, but to transform him into an effective reliever, goes against the ethos of this bucket, but Champlain had a real rough landing at Triple-A last year. While he has taken a while to adjust to new levels as it is, he’s more of an upside play than the others guys listed here below, given how effective he’s already been as a starter once acclimated to a level.
Taylor Dollard (SP, Mariners). I also had Dollard on the list last year, and he ended up not returning from his labrum/shoulder woes in 2024 at all. So, the fact that he’s theoretically an interesting pitcher guy is clouded by the reality that he has now lost seemingly forever to injury — but he’s still there if someone thinks he’s closer to returning now and wants to stash him as a low-leverage arm.
Dom Hamel (SP, Mets). It doesn’t look like Hamel is gonna make it as a starter despite a deep arsenal; his command isn’t good enough despite the kitchen sink and he sucked at Triple-A. But a kitchen sink reliever who had enough talent to start, in theory? Yeah, some team might want that as like a weird Anibal-Sanchez-from-the-bullpen sort of thing.
Yujaner Herrera (SP, Rockies). Acquired midseason in the Nick Mears deal, there was some industry expectation that Herrera was going to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, but with him not having ascended past High-A, here we are. Herrera is a big guy who, counterintuitively, doesn’t necessarily lean on overpowering stuff, but he also doesn’t have the command problems endemic to pretty much every pitcher not already in the majors.
Jimmy Joyce (RP, Mariners). Joyce converted to relief after struggling as a starter in Double-A last year, and did better. He has an old-school hard righty sinker profile that some team might want in their bullpen as a middle reliever.
Griff McGarry (RP, Phillies). Look at his walk rates. Look at his injury history. Then consider that he’s still somehow still in an organization. I mean, there’s something there. Would anyone waste a pick and major league roster spot on it? No, but if the Phillies can sign a non-tendered guy for more than his arbitration-eligible salary estimate, why can’t someone do something insane like taking McGarry with a Rule 5 pick?
Christian McGowan (SP, Phillies). McGowan has been super-injured and failed as a starter in a handful of outings in Double-A last year, but from a prospect evaluation perspective he seems to have the skillset to transition to an effective reliever, basically right now.
Juan Nunez (Sish P, Orioles). There are two things that make Nunez a longshot to be taken. First, he hasn’t pitched above High-A yet. Second, he missed most of last year with a shoulder injury. That’s why the Orioles didn’t bother protecting him. Still, his stuff gets a lot of praise, and injuries aside, he was kind of at the right level of stretched out for a mop-up long relief role.
Alex Pham (SP, Orioles). Pham went from college reliever to pro reliever to pro starter as of 2023, and has held his own through the transition. He could probably already eat backend innings right now, so he could be thrown into a mop-up role, provided a team actually wanted a “free” backend starter at all. Given that most teams already have a bunch of those guys because modern roster management requires it, I’m not sure Pham is a particularly exciting Rule 5 get, but he’s there if a team feels thin on Quad-A/sixth starter types.
Dahlan Santos (SP, Blue Jays). This guy is here because he has posted disgusting strikeout rates in the minors. Of course, with those strikeout rates have come all sorts of forearm problems and truckloads of walks, but you know how it is. Taking Santos is basically an insane upside play on a guy that’s still 21. Sometimes, rebuilding teams will sign random veteran relievers or whatever and try to flip them for lottery tickets at the Trade Deadline; a rebuilding team that doesn’t need roster flexibility could simply get a lottery ticket by taking Santos on Wednesday.
Mike Vasil (SP, Mets). Vasil was highly-regarded and has totally blown it after transitioning to Triple-A in the middle of 2023. He’s here in case someone thinks getting him out of the Mets’ system is the cure for what ails him, but I can’t see a reason to take him beyond that.
Backup catchers
Pablo Aliendo (C, Cubs). I don’t think anyone actually wants to take a backup catcher in the Rule 5 Draft, because why? But if they did, Oliendo is a boom-and-bust type — big power, big whiffs, big arm, otherwise rough defensively. He’s succeeded at Double-A, and while teams will probably be too concerned about the fact that their pitchers won’t like throwing to a poor receiver, he’s a way to add power to the lineup for teams with a primary catcher and no exciting backup options.
Brandon Valenzuela (C, Padres). Valenzuela has some good things about his profile (switch-hitting, throwing), some things that should be good but that are hard to trust without good major league data (framing skill), and some concerning things (apparently a horrible blocker, hasn’t actually hit well in the minors). In some ways, he’s kind of the default “hey, get a decent prospect by stashing him for a year,” but that sort of play has been out of fashion in the Rule 5 lately.
Fifth-ish outfielders
Dasan Brown (OF, Blue Jays). No one wanted Brown last year, when he was eligible and made my list. Since then, he proceeded to Double-A and was horrible offensively, but we pretty much knew it was coming. He’s one of the fastest guys around and plays a great center field defense. That might be a fit somewhere, even if it wasn’t last year. He offers so little offensive upside that, well, the best hope for him may be a rule change that adds designated fielders and/or runners to the mix.
Christian Franklin (OF, Cubs). Great walk rates, good success at Double-A, good defensive value as an outfielder. Having a higher OBP than slugging last year at Double-A is probably why he went unprotected, but there may be certain teams who play in certain parks that don’t think of this as a particularly horrible thing.
Kala’i Rosario (OF, Twins). This is the usual “hey this guy has a lot of raw power but strikes out too much” pick that goes here. Teams haven’t been interested in this profile much, but it’s one of the generic types of guy that isn’t protected, and the idea is that a team successful at tweaking swings could grab Rosario and stick him in as the short side of a platoon and get something out of him already.
Utility infielders
Kevin Made (SS, Nationals). He’s the generic type of utility infielder that’s available in the Rule 5 Draft: can play shortstop well, can’t really hit. I don’t know who’s going into the Rule 5 looking for a utility infielder, but if such a team exists and finds Workman too weird, Made is there for them.
Gage Workman (SS/3B, Tigers). Pros: switch-hitter, crushed Double-A last year, has grown into walks, an actual good defender. Cons: has a hole in his bat. Everyone’s basically written Workman off because of his contact issues, but if you ignore them for some reason, he provides mostly everything else.
Weird guys I can’t fit anywhere else
Colin Barber (LF, Astros). Hit over power corner outfielder is a strange profile, and Barber really did himself a disservice by playing really poorly when repeating Double-A last year. If some team wants to give him a mulligan for 2024 and try something other than the current hitting meta, as it were, he could be an option.
Cooper Bowman (2B/CF, Oakland-Sacramento-Las Vegas-Xanadu Athletics). Mostly, I think someone taking Bowman would be funny. A 2B/CF is funny enough to maybe be useful. He actually tore up Double-A last year, but was horrendous at Triple-A. He doesn’t have high marks for power, but his ISOs have been reasonable in the minors. And he has surprisingly good plate discipline for a guy that’s a pretty fringy prospect. He’s fast and has stolen bases well. Basically, I don’t know what team would want to use a permanent roster spot on a 2B/CF who can be a useful pinch-runner and seems well-rounded at the plate without any guarantee they’d actually be good... but there’s at least one, right?
Coleman Crow (SP, Brewers). I had Crow on here last year, and since then he’s changed teams (again) and hasn’t appeared in a professional game, as he spent all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John Surgery. It’s rough for a new team to take a guy and immediately plug him into a major league role coming off a lengthy recovery, but Crow seems likely to be a major leaguer — it’s just a matter of anyone wants to commit to calling the Brewers’ bluff in not protecting him given that he last logged an official appearance in April 2023.
Austin Gauthier (2B/SS, Dodgers). An undrafted free agent from 2021 who absolutely tore up the minors before finally stumbling in Triple-A last year, Gauthier posts insane walk rates and should give a team useful major league baserunning and fielding production. He has no real power and his ISOs are mostly based on spray and hustle doubles, so again, he’s a weird guy in the weird guy bucket, but like some other guys I’ve listed here, he’s a pseudo-fancy pick for a team that wants to change up the paradigm who actually provides backup infielder/pinch runner value and can draw a walk against relievers with poor command (which is most of them).
Blaze Jordan (3B/1B, Red Sox). Jordan terrorized the low minors and has been meh at Double-A, but he has a weird profile that maybe some team could do something with. He swings at everything but hasn’t had it kill him so far, and it’s worth noting that he may have been unfortunate during his Double-A stints. In some ways, this might be a waste of a blurb because no team really needs a guy like Jordan eating up a roster spot all year, but if there’s some team who thinks they have some sort of secret sauce for rectifying swing-happy approaches, he’s right there.
<img alt="2024 Fall Stars Game between the American League Fall Stars and the National League Fall Stars" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BcQhUmZe58jtaActdjZ3FhNnQ9g=/0x0:4142x2761/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73778218/2183309570.0.jpg">
Photo by Jill Weisleder/MLB Photos via Getty Images
I did okay last year. I’m trying to proceed down the comeback trail this year. I don’t know if the Rule 5 Draft has gotten increasingly less relevant, but it sure feels that way. Teams now care a lot about roster flexibility, and savvy organizations are focused on skillsets and their own development strengths in a way where the waiver/cash considerations wire can be a more useful avenue for speculative additions than the Rule 5 Draft, which forces you to retain your choice on the active roster or lose them (provided the original team wants the player back, anyway). Even the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, which has no sticky restrictions, seems like a more canny avenue to poach players.
Nonetheless, every year, I go over the list of unprotected players and try to think through whom teams may actually want to take. In 2022, I did terribly. In 2023, I think I did okay — there were only ten major league Rule 5 selections, and of those ten, I highlighted three on my own list. Further, the fates of those ten picks were fairly interesting:
Mitch Spence was a fine backend starter/swingman for Oakland (I didn’t highlight him);
Matt Sauer was terrible for the Royals and ended up being returned to the Yankees (no highlight from me);
Anthony Molina lasted the whole season with the Rockies but didn’t really do anything useful as a reliever, and had some truly awful contact (mis)management (again, I didn’t highlight him);
Shane Drohan was injured and got returned (he was a guy I thought might get taken);
Nasim Nunez played great defense, as expected, and got lucky enough in 78 PAs to manage 0.4 fWAR, which is pretty impressive (another of my picks);
Ryan Fernandez had a great relief season for the Cardinals (I’m mad I didn’t have this guy on my radar, he was an unequivocal Rule 5 success after having a pretty unremarkable relief season in Triple-A before being picked);
The above goes double for Justin Slaten, who had a top-20 relief season overall, again after not really doing anything in 2023 that suggested his relief conversion was going to be a success (amusingly, the Red Sox lost Fernandez, but gained Slaten);
Deyvison de los Santos was another guy I highlighted; he was taken, returned, and later traded for by the Marlins, but never played in the majors in 2024;
Stephen Kolek was a generic relief guy, which isn’t that interesting in a Rule 5 Draft that featured both Fernandez and Slaten (not on my list); and, finally
Carson Coleman ended up being maybe the weirdest case of this draft — taken by the Rangers from the Yankees despite being down with an elbow injury, he was ultimately just sent back to the Yankees after the end of the season, making him the “but why.gif” pick of the draft.
So, I did okay. Can I do better this year? Let’s see! Onto the names!
Ye olde “use a starter for a reliever one year” bucket and/or other pitchers of pseudo-interest
Dane Acker (RP, Rangers). Acker transitioned to relief last year and salvaged a Double-A season (and really a minor league career) where he was not actually very good at starting. He was dominant in a handful of relief outings, though, issuing just two walks in eight relief outings, most of which were longer than an inning. It’s a speculative add but might end up being a way to get a reliever more cheaply than paying free agent prices for one.
Ian Bedell (SP, Cardinals). Perhaps the most generic “this starter was bad in Triple-A” guy I could dream up, Bedell looks like a fringy starter that could sit in a mop-up role for a year somewhere before a team sends him back down and tries to improve on his outlook. Again, teams are far less loath to do that these days than they have been in the past, but I guess Bedell makes it on this list for old times’ sake.
Chander Champlain (SP, Royals). The reason why Champlain is on this list is because his arsenal already screams “reliever.” In some ways, taking a starter not just to stash him as a reliever for a year, but to transform him into an effective reliever, goes against the ethos of this bucket, but Champlain had a real rough landing at Triple-A last year. While he has taken a while to adjust to new levels as it is, he’s more of an upside play than the others guys listed here below, given how effective he’s already been as a starter once acclimated to a level.
Taylor Dollard (SP, Mariners). I also had Dollard on the list last year, and he ended up not returning from his labrum/shoulder woes in 2024 at all. So, the fact that he’s theoretically an interesting pitcher guy is clouded by the reality that he has now lost seemingly forever to injury — but he’s still there if someone thinks he’s closer to returning now and wants to stash him as a low-leverage arm.
Dom Hamel (SP, Mets). It doesn’t look like Hamel is gonna make it as a starter despite a deep arsenal; his command isn’t good enough despite the kitchen sink and he sucked at Triple-A. But a kitchen sink reliever who had enough talent to start, in theory? Yeah, some team might want that as like a weird Anibal-Sanchez-from-the-bullpen sort of thing.
Yujaner Herrera (SP, Rockies). Acquired midseason in the Nick Mears deal, there was some industry expectation that Herrera was going to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, but with him not having ascended past High-A, here we are. Herrera is a big guy who, counterintuitively, doesn’t necessarily lean on overpowering stuff, but he also doesn’t have the command problems endemic to pretty much every pitcher not already in the majors.
Jimmy Joyce (RP, Mariners). Joyce converted to relief after struggling as a starter in Double-A last year, and did better. He has an old-school hard righty sinker profile that some team might want in their bullpen as a middle reliever.
Griff McGarry (RP, Phillies). Look at his walk rates. Look at his injury history. Then consider that he’s still somehow still in an organization. I mean, there’s something there. Would anyone waste a pick and major league roster spot on it? No, but if the Phillies can sign a non-tendered guy for more than his arbitration-eligible salary estimate, why can’t someone do something insane like taking McGarry with a Rule 5 pick?
Christian McGowan (SP, Phillies). McGowan has been super-injured and failed as a starter in a handful of outings in Double-A last year, but from a prospect evaluation perspective he seems to have the skillset to transition to an effective reliever, basically right now.
Juan Nunez (Sish P, Orioles). There are two things that make Nunez a longshot to be taken. First, he hasn’t pitched above High-A yet. Second, he missed most of last year with a shoulder injury. That’s why the Orioles didn’t bother protecting him. Still, his stuff gets a lot of praise, and injuries aside, he was kind of at the right level of stretched out for a mop-up long relief role.
Alex Pham (SP, Orioles). Pham went from college reliever to pro reliever to pro starter as of 2023, and has held his own through the transition. He could probably already eat backend innings right now, so he could be thrown into a mop-up role, provided a team actually wanted a “free” backend starter at all. Given that most teams already have a bunch of those guys because modern roster management requires it, I’m not sure Pham is a particularly exciting Rule 5 get, but he’s there if a team feels thin on Quad-A/sixth starter types.
Dahlan Santos (SP, Blue Jays). This guy is here because he has posted disgusting strikeout rates in the minors. Of course, with those strikeout rates have come all sorts of forearm problems and truckloads of walks, but you know how it is. Taking Santos is basically an insane upside play on a guy that’s still 21. Sometimes, rebuilding teams will sign random veteran relievers or whatever and try to flip them for lottery tickets at the Trade Deadline; a rebuilding team that doesn’t need roster flexibility could simply get a lottery ticket by taking Santos on Wednesday.
Mike Vasil (SP, Mets). Vasil was highly-regarded and has totally blown it after transitioning to Triple-A in the middle of 2023. He’s here in case someone thinks getting him out of the Mets’ system is the cure for what ails him, but I can’t see a reason to take him beyond that.
Backup catchers
Pablo Aliendo (C, Cubs). I don’t think anyone actually wants to take a backup catcher in the Rule 5 Draft, because why? But if they did, Oliendo is a boom-and-bust type — big power, big whiffs, big arm, otherwise rough defensively. He’s succeeded at Double-A, and while teams will probably be too concerned about the fact that their pitchers won’t like throwing to a poor receiver, he’s a way to add power to the lineup for teams with a primary catcher and no exciting backup options.
Brandon Valenzuela (C, Padres). Valenzuela has some good things about his profile (switch-hitting, throwing), some things that should be good but that are hard to trust without good major league data (framing skill), and some concerning things (apparently a horrible blocker, hasn’t actually hit well in the minors). In some ways, he’s kind of the default “hey, get a decent prospect by stashing him for a year,” but that sort of play has been out of fashion in the Rule 5 lately.
Fifth-ish outfielders
Dasan Brown (OF, Blue Jays). No one wanted Brown last year, when he was eligible and made my list. Since then, he proceeded to Double-A and was horrible offensively, but we pretty much knew it was coming. He’s one of the fastest guys around and plays a great center field defense. That might be a fit somewhere, even if it wasn’t last year. He offers so little offensive upside that, well, the best hope for him may be a rule change that adds designated fielders and/or runners to the mix.
Christian Franklin (OF, Cubs). Great walk rates, good success at Double-A, good defensive value as an outfielder. Having a higher OBP than slugging last year at Double-A is probably why he went unprotected, but there may be certain teams who play in certain parks that don’t think of this as a particularly horrible thing.
Kala’i Rosario (OF, Twins). This is the usual “hey this guy has a lot of raw power but strikes out too much” pick that goes here. Teams haven’t been interested in this profile much, but it’s one of the generic types of guy that isn’t protected, and the idea is that a team successful at tweaking swings could grab Rosario and stick him in as the short side of a platoon and get something out of him already.
Utility infielders
Kevin Made (SS, Nationals). He’s the generic type of utility infielder that’s available in the Rule 5 Draft: can play shortstop well, can’t really hit. I don’t know who’s going into the Rule 5 looking for a utility infielder, but if such a team exists and finds Workman too weird, Made is there for them.
Gage Workman (SS/3B, Tigers). Pros: switch-hitter, crushed Double-A last year, has grown into walks, an actual good defender. Cons: has a hole in his bat. Everyone’s basically written Workman off because of his contact issues, but if you ignore them for some reason, he provides mostly everything else.
Weird guys I can’t fit anywhere else
Colin Barber (LF, Astros). Hit over power corner outfielder is a strange profile, and Barber really did himself a disservice by playing really poorly when repeating Double-A last year. If some team wants to give him a mulligan for 2024 and try something other than the current hitting meta, as it were, he could be an option.
Cooper Bowman (2B/CF, Oakland-Sacramento-Las Vegas-Xanadu Athletics). Mostly, I think someone taking Bowman would be funny. A 2B/CF is funny enough to maybe be useful. He actually tore up Double-A last year, but was horrendous at Triple-A. He doesn’t have high marks for power, but his ISOs have been reasonable in the minors. And he has surprisingly good plate discipline for a guy that’s a pretty fringy prospect. He’s fast and has stolen bases well. Basically, I don’t know what team would want to use a permanent roster spot on a 2B/CF who can be a useful pinch-runner and seems well-rounded at the plate without any guarantee they’d actually be good... but there’s at least one, right?
Coleman Crow (SP, Brewers). I had Crow on here last year, and since then he’s changed teams (again) and hasn’t appeared in a professional game, as he spent all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John Surgery. It’s rough for a new team to take a guy and immediately plug him into a major league role coming off a lengthy recovery, but Crow seems likely to be a major leaguer — it’s just a matter of anyone wants to commit to calling the Brewers’ bluff in not protecting him given that he last logged an official appearance in April 2023.
Austin Gauthier (2B/SS, Dodgers). An undrafted free agent from 2021 who absolutely tore up the minors before finally stumbling in Triple-A last year, Gauthier posts insane walk rates and should give a team useful major league baserunning and fielding production. He has no real power and his ISOs are mostly based on spray and hustle doubles, so again, he’s a weird guy in the weird guy bucket, but like some other guys I’ve listed here, he’s a pseudo-fancy pick for a team that wants to change up the paradigm who actually provides backup infielder/pinch runner value and can draw a walk against relievers with poor command (which is most of them).
Blaze Jordan (3B/1B, Red Sox). Jordan terrorized the low minors and has been meh at Double-A, but he has a weird profile that maybe some team could do something with. He swings at everything but hasn’t had it kill him so far, and it’s worth noting that he may have been unfortunate during his Double-A stints. In some ways, this might be a waste of a blurb because no team really needs a guy like Jordan eating up a roster spot all year, but if there’s some team who thinks they have some sort of secret sauce for rectifying swing-happy approaches, he’s right there.
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