<img alt="MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FGf6ePQhf8Yd4a_uzw-SRVrFQuo=/0x697:2217x2175/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73776357/usa_today_22965523.0.jpg">
Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Dr. Curveball dispensed some relief for the pitching staff this year Pierce Johnson, like his curveballs, had an up-and-down year. Mostly good, but August was bad. He was definitely a solid contributor to the bullpen and the Braves successful playoff run, but some pretty big blow-ups happened while he was on the mound, especially down the stretch.
How acquired
The Braves acquired a few relievers for the stretch run at the 2023 Trade Deadline. Pierce Johnson was one of them, acquired from the Rockies with pitchers Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon going the other way. After the season, the Braves extended Johnson with a two-year, $14.25 million deal that also includes an option for the 2026 season.
For what it’s worth, Vodnik has pitched a lot of bulk for the Rockies since the trade, clearing the 80-inning mark, while doing some decent relief work. Gordon has struggled, but still gave the Rockies eight starts this past season.
What were the expectations?
In 2023, the Braves targeting Johnson was fairly obvious: he had a 121 ERA-, 99 FIP-, and 91 xFIP- before the trade. Once he got to Atlanta, his fortunes turned, and then some, with an insane 17/66/48 line in 23 2⁄3 innings of work. Put another way, Johnson had 0.2 fWAR before the trade in 39 innings; he had 0.4 fWAR after the trade in fewer than two-thirds of the innings. He faced 89 batters as a Brave, struck out 32 of them, and walked five, giving him a K%-BB% above 30 percent. Wild stuff. The Braves won in 18 of his 24 appearances down the stretch; he was throwing his curve more than 70 percent of the time, and getting grounders on more than 55 percent of his balls in play.
Johnson’s resurgence in Atlanta gave him an aggregate 84/80/80 line since returning to MLB after spending a year in Japan. Basically, he’s been a really good reliever, if not one of the crazy-dominant ones. Given that, he was expected to be another high leverage-y arm for the Braves. Perhaps of particular interest to the Braves was the fact that due to his arsenal, Johnson essentially has no platoon split; his career xFIP is actually lower against lefties by close to 0.50.
ZiPS projected Johnson for 0.5 WAR over 50 or so innings; that’s a little lower than the rate he had amassed from 2020-onward, but it’s definitely in the ballpark.
2024 results
In the end, ZIPS had Johnson pretty well nailed. He only had 67 strikeouts over 56 1⁄3 innings instead of the point estimate projection of 70 over 51 1⁄3 innings, but he finished with exactly 0.5 fWAR. If it was a close game in the seventh inning with some righties due up, chances are his number would be called. His final line was 88/91/90, which was somewhat worse than he’s done before, but we’ll get to that.
What went right
The curveball. Well, they went “up” and then down, but you get the idea. Johnson threw 645 curveballs during the course of the year, fourth in baseball despite him being a reliever (and far and away the most among relievers). (Charlie Morton threw the most curveballs in 2024.) Only eight guys had more strikeouts on a curveball than Johnson, none of them relievers.
Johnson threw his curve 71.6 percent of the time, also the highest rate in baseball. It’s kind of funny, because given what we know about him 71.6 percent doesn’t seem that high in a vacuum, but his previous career high was 67.5 percent, and he was only at 56.7 percent last year. The Braves got him to throw his curve, and throw his curve he did.
Because of the curve, his fastball benefited, posting a very-nice-for-a-fastball .309 xwOBA and 26.6 percent whiff rate. (For comparison, his curve was at .298 and 28.1 percent.)
On April 6, in the tenth inning, we were treated to perhaps the most Pierce Johnson appearance ever. In a 5-5 tie, Johnson pushed the Diamondbacks aside with 14 straight curveballs.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hBMWeDKIfa5oioa9lgtlfpOIqBM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25770841/cu.png">
Strikeout swinging, strikeout swinging, walk, groundout to Ozzie, inning over.
Let’s see that again.
During high leverage during the first two months of the season, he leaned on the curveball nearly exclusively. And it paid off.
He was also the beneficiary of this thing that happened on July 20, showing that not everything about this season was cursed.
What went wrong
Johnson’s monthly stats were pretty variable, as you’d expect from a reliever that only made a handful of appearances each month. He had a sub-3.00 FIP and xFIP in April; he struggled with walks in May en route to a 4.68 xFIP, but his FIP was still good. June was similar to May, and he absolutely eviscerated guys in July with a sub-2.00 FIP and xFIP. But then he hit the skids with an awful August in which he faced 55 batters, struck out just nine, walked eight, and gave up two homers to boot. Johnson came in to August with a +0.57 WPA accrued while pitching, and nine shutdowns to five meltdowns. In August, he had three shutdowns to three meltdowns and finished with -0.07 WPA. September was better pitching-wise, but he lost -0.48 WPA for the month, and had just three shutdowns to two meltdowns. Just to be clear:
Johnson, through July: nine shutdowns, five meltdowns, +0.57 WPA, 67/67/78
Johnson, August and September: six shutdowns, five meltdowns, -0.56 WPA, 126/133/111
Did guys catch on to his curve? It’s a little hard to say, but he definitely decreased his usage of it. Still, it doesn’t really seem like that’s the case. Hitter swing rates against his curve actually dropped, while its zone rate went up. It’s hard to say his command of it got worse. But even so, the whiff rate on his curve was basically halved and the xwOBA against it went up to an uncomfortable .360ish, while hitters started performing way worse against his fastball. Johnson did adjust to throw more fastballs, especially in September, so it’s possible that his bad August was because hitters finally decided to sit on his curve and it took him the better part of a month to move away from the curve.
The lowlight was a game we need to bury along with the trail of injuries in 2024. The penultimate game of the regular season was one the Braves needed to not only clinch a playoff berth, but also was needed to not have Braves and their fans clench it during the final game.
Thankfully, it was going great into the eighth. Spencer Schwellenbach threw seven innings of spotless ball and the Braves were up 3-0. Then Joe Jimenez and Raisel Iglesias (who were saved along with the rest of the bullpen for six months for just this moment) unraveled completely. They allowed six runs before Aaron Bummer came in to save the day. The Braves somehow scored four in the bottom half of the eighth inning to grab the lead back. And then, ugh.
Something something save the bullpen something.
Did Lindor know that curve was coming? I mean, yeah. But he also didn’t miss it, which is what guys were doing over and over earlier in the season.
2025 Outlook
Steamer and ZiPS have Johnson’s 2025 season in line with his previous two seasons, which makes sense, because, well, those seasons weren’t that different. Something in the 0.5-0.7 WAR range will work out just fine for the Braves.
With Jimenez lost for the year, Johnson becomes the de facto primary right-handed set-up option. Theoretically, a triumvirate of Iglesias, Bummer, and Johnson is a great starting point, with Dylan Lee and Daysbel Hernandez no chopped liver either. The Braves will probably add more to this group; it remains to be seen where Johnson’s spot in the pecking order falls given the current, biannual opportunity to do what the Braves love doing: paying for relievers.
<img alt="MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FGf6ePQhf8Yd4a_uzw-SRVrFQuo=/0x697:2217x2175/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73776357/usa_today_22965523.0.jpg">
Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Dr. Curveball dispensed some relief for the pitching staff this year Pierce Johnson, like his curveballs, had an up-and-down year. Mostly good, but August was bad. He was definitely a solid contributor to the bullpen and the Braves successful playoff run, but some pretty big blow-ups happened while he was on the mound, especially down the stretch.
How acquired
The Braves acquired a few relievers for the stretch run at the 2023 Trade Deadline. Pierce Johnson was one of them, acquired from the Rockies with pitchers Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon going the other way. After the season, the Braves extended Johnson with a two-year, $14.25 million deal that also includes an option for the 2026 season.
For what it’s worth, Vodnik has pitched a lot of bulk for the Rockies since the trade, clearing the 80-inning mark, while doing some decent relief work. Gordon has struggled, but still gave the Rockies eight starts this past season.
What were the expectations?
In 2023, the Braves targeting Johnson was fairly obvious: he had a 121 ERA-, 99 FIP-, and 91 xFIP- before the trade. Once he got to Atlanta, his fortunes turned, and then some, with an insane 17/66/48 line in 23 2⁄3 innings of work. Put another way, Johnson had 0.2 fWAR before the trade in 39 innings; he had 0.4 fWAR after the trade in fewer than two-thirds of the innings. He faced 89 batters as a Brave, struck out 32 of them, and walked five, giving him a K%-BB% above 30 percent. Wild stuff. The Braves won in 18 of his 24 appearances down the stretch; he was throwing his curve more than 70 percent of the time, and getting grounders on more than 55 percent of his balls in play.
Johnson’s resurgence in Atlanta gave him an aggregate 84/80/80 line since returning to MLB after spending a year in Japan. Basically, he’s been a really good reliever, if not one of the crazy-dominant ones. Given that, he was expected to be another high leverage-y arm for the Braves. Perhaps of particular interest to the Braves was the fact that due to his arsenal, Johnson essentially has no platoon split; his career xFIP is actually lower against lefties by close to 0.50.
ZiPS projected Johnson for 0.5 WAR over 50 or so innings; that’s a little lower than the rate he had amassed from 2020-onward, but it’s definitely in the ballpark.
2024 results
In the end, ZIPS had Johnson pretty well nailed. He only had 67 strikeouts over 56 1⁄3 innings instead of the point estimate projection of 70 over 51 1⁄3 innings, but he finished with exactly 0.5 fWAR. If it was a close game in the seventh inning with some righties due up, chances are his number would be called. His final line was 88/91/90, which was somewhat worse than he’s done before, but we’ll get to that.
What went right
The curveball. Well, they went “up” and then down, but you get the idea. Johnson threw 645 curveballs during the course of the year, fourth in baseball despite him being a reliever (and far and away the most among relievers). (Charlie Morton threw the most curveballs in 2024.) Only eight guys had more strikeouts on a curveball than Johnson, none of them relievers.
Johnson threw his curve 71.6 percent of the time, also the highest rate in baseball. It’s kind of funny, because given what we know about him 71.6 percent doesn’t seem that high in a vacuum, but his previous career high was 67.5 percent, and he was only at 56.7 percent last year. The Braves got him to throw his curve, and throw his curve he did.
Because of the curve, his fastball benefited, posting a very-nice-for-a-fastball .309 xwOBA and 26.6 percent whiff rate. (For comparison, his curve was at .298 and 28.1 percent.)
On April 6, in the tenth inning, we were treated to perhaps the most Pierce Johnson appearance ever. In a 5-5 tie, Johnson pushed the Diamondbacks aside with 14 straight curveballs.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hBMWeDKIfa5oioa9lgtlfpOIqBM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25770841/cu.png">
Strikeout swinging, strikeout swinging, walk, groundout to Ozzie, inning over.
Let’s see that again.
During high leverage during the first two months of the season, he leaned on the curveball nearly exclusively. And it paid off.
He was also the beneficiary of this thing that happened on July 20, showing that not everything about this season was cursed.
What went wrong
Johnson’s monthly stats were pretty variable, as you’d expect from a reliever that only made a handful of appearances each month. He had a sub-3.00 FIP and xFIP in April; he struggled with walks in May en route to a 4.68 xFIP, but his FIP was still good. June was similar to May, and he absolutely eviscerated guys in July with a sub-2.00 FIP and xFIP. But then he hit the skids with an awful August in which he faced 55 batters, struck out just nine, walked eight, and gave up two homers to boot. Johnson came in to August with a +0.57 WPA accrued while pitching, and nine shutdowns to five meltdowns. In August, he had three shutdowns to three meltdowns and finished with -0.07 WPA. September was better pitching-wise, but he lost -0.48 WPA for the month, and had just three shutdowns to two meltdowns. Just to be clear:
Johnson, through July: nine shutdowns, five meltdowns, +0.57 WPA, 67/67/78
Johnson, August and September: six shutdowns, five meltdowns, -0.56 WPA, 126/133/111
Did guys catch on to his curve? It’s a little hard to say, but he definitely decreased his usage of it. Still, it doesn’t really seem like that’s the case. Hitter swing rates against his curve actually dropped, while its zone rate went up. It’s hard to say his command of it got worse. But even so, the whiff rate on his curve was basically halved and the xwOBA against it went up to an uncomfortable .360ish, while hitters started performing way worse against his fastball. Johnson did adjust to throw more fastballs, especially in September, so it’s possible that his bad August was because hitters finally decided to sit on his curve and it took him the better part of a month to move away from the curve.
The lowlight was a game we need to bury along with the trail of injuries in 2024. The penultimate game of the regular season was one the Braves needed to not only clinch a playoff berth, but also was needed to not have Braves and their fans clench it during the final game.
Thankfully, it was going great into the eighth. Spencer Schwellenbach threw seven innings of spotless ball and the Braves were up 3-0. Then Joe Jimenez and Raisel Iglesias (who were saved along with the rest of the bullpen for six months for just this moment) unraveled completely. They allowed six runs before Aaron Bummer came in to save the day. The Braves somehow scored four in the bottom half of the eighth inning to grab the lead back. And then, ugh.
Something something save the bullpen something.
Did Lindor know that curve was coming? I mean, yeah. But he also didn’t miss it, which is what guys were doing over and over earlier in the season.
2025 Outlook
Steamer and ZiPS have Johnson’s 2025 season in line with his previous two seasons, which makes sense, because, well, those seasons weren’t that different. Something in the 0.5-0.7 WAR range will work out just fine for the Braves.
With Jimenez lost for the year, Johnson becomes the de facto primary right-handed set-up option. Theoretically, a triumvirate of Iglesias, Bummer, and Johnson is a great starting point, with Dylan Lee and Daysbel Hernandez no chopped liver either. The Braves will probably add more to this group; it remains to be seen where Johnson’s spot in the pecking order falls given the current, biannual opportunity to do what the Braves love doing: paying for relievers.
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