<img alt="MLB: SEP 30 Mets at Braves - Game 2" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/r4hKrAEK2vtx1nQBH6itcya_Lpk=/0x378:2400x1978/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73770915/2175116294.0.jpg">
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The icon returned for another season with Atlanta. Jesse Chavez and the Atlanta Braves go together like peas and carrots.
Chavez didn’t come to Spring Training with the Braves in 2024, but by the time the regular season started there he was, adorned in his number 60 jersey, picking up the win for Atlanta on March 30 — the second game of the season.
By the time this year’s campaign ended, the bespectacled Chavez turned in another lengthy season as “Coach” in the team’s highly effective bullpen, and though the homers got him this time, he can probably keep pitching into his 40s if he wants to.
How acquired
Which time? This time? The Braves signed Chavez to a minor league contract just before the start of the regular season, after he was released by the Chicago White Sox. Atlanta brought him up to the big club for Opening Day. It was a bit of a surprise when Chavez signed a minor league deal with the White Sox and not the Braves back in February, but all ended up right with the world since he didn’t actually miss his chance to be a Brave in 2024.
Before that? Rather that go through that again, click this link to last year’s profile, which links to the years prior, which like Chavez himself just keeps on going.
What were the expectations?
At this point, the expectations for Chavez and his return engagement with the Braves were as high as they could be for a 40-year-old journeyman reliever who seemingly found a magic elixir of pixie dust and youth serum somewhere near the Chattahoochee River a few years ago that turned him into an in-the-conversation-for-being-an-All-Star-for-the-first-time in the last two seasons.
That run-on sentence seems nonsensical if someone doesn’t follow the Braves closely, but for those who do, they understand that the success Chavez found with Atlanta earlier this decade makes no logical sense, nor is there reason to think one season would be repeatable — much less four — especially when looking at his performance with other clubs prior to returning to Atlanta and the pit-stops he made elsewhere during his run with the Braves.
Fundamentally, Chavez was really good reliever in 2021, 2022, and 2023. He totaled 2.4 fWAR across those seasons, and his 68/73/83 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) line suggested that sure, he was getting a bit fortunate, but still relieving very well for a guy whose profile best befits a multi-inning, mop-up option. It gets a bit crazier when you consider that in 2023, he was much better as a Brave than as a Cub or Angel, which makes his Braves numbers in that span even better. So, what should you have expected from Chavez in 2024, his age-40 season? Another really good relief season, akin to his 2022 or 2023? Why not? Even ZiPS had him as a fine reliever, if not a superb one, coming into the season, which is pretty high praise considering his age.
2024 results
Chavez, serving as a low-to-mid-leverage right-handed reliever, pitched in 46 games and logged 63 1⁄3 innings in 2024. Unlike his past few seasons, though, his line ended up with some weirdness.
On the surface, his 75 ERA- was pretty great. But, thanks to his first truly elevated HR/FB rate in four seasons, he finished with a pretty bad 111 FIP-, and -0.2 fWAR. It’s not a particularly common occurrence to have a guy skate by with a low ERA despite getting dinged by homers again and again, but Chavez is anything but a common pitcher.
Chavez’ xFIP- increased to 96, after actually dropping from 87 to 84 to 78 over his last three seasons. The erosion of his strikeout rate was the big driver here, but a 96 xFIP- is still a fine mark for a mop-up long relief guy.
What went right?
Chavez turned 41 in August and was one of the oldest pitchers to play in 2024. That alone is is worth celebrating. But, his presence on the roster wasn’t some kind of lifetime achievement award. He continued to show his trademark pinpoint command, for the most part, though he struggled with the feel of his changeup in a way he really hadn’t in the last few seasons. His cutter and sinker still got the job done. And, of course, the team didn’t really suffer despite all the homers he gave up, which isn’t much of a consolation to Chavez.
Despite his general usage profile, Chavez still came through when the Braves needed him to in higher leverage. On May 12 against the Mets, in the game the Braves eventually lost when Brandon Nimmo hit a walkoff homer against A.J. Minter, Chavez had a pretty big outing in the WPA department that was also reflective of his 2024 because he didn’t strike anyone out. He came on with one out in a tie game in the seventh, with a runner on first. A single, a comebacker-turned-forceout, and a flyout ended that frame, and after the Braves took the lead in the eighth, he came back out and got another flyout to set the Braves up for success (alas).
But, perhaps his best outing of the season came on June 17 — the Tigers had finally gotten to Max Fried to break a scoreless tie in the sixth, and Chavez came on with one out and two on, and struck out the next two batters to escape the inning. Well, he actually struck out the next batter and walked Colt Keith, but then whatever this was happened, and the inning ended despite the walk:
He then fired a patented Chavez 1-2-3, seven-pitch inning; the Braves tied the game up in the seventh and went ahead for good in the eighth.
What went wrong?
Well, ten homers in about 63 innings of work is a lot of homers. And Chavez somehow finished with a negative WPA and a 10/9 shutdown/meltdown ratio, despite a 75 ERA- and the fact that he somehow almost made it all the way through August without said ERA rising above the 3.00 mark. So, it was a weird season all around in that regard, where somehow there weren’t a lot of runs scored while he was pitching, but there were a lot of homers, and the runs that did score while he was pitching mattered a lot. (Let’s just all avert our eyes from his 8+ FIP and 7.00 xFIP in high leverage this year.)
Beyond that, it’s hard to say too much. Chavez clearly had some changeup issues, and there were some really small things with the location of his cutter that he probably wishes were improved, but it’s hard to nitpick when he debuted in 2008 and was mostly done in by HR/FB in a season where inducing balls to die at the warning track felt, at times, like a legitimate, if accidental, strategy.
By far his most damaging outing of the season came in late July in Milwaukee — he entered after Grant Holmes had fired five frames leading to a 2-1 Braves lead, and the inning went single-steal-walk-forceout-Willy Adames three-run homer. Oops.
That clip actually shows a bit of Chavez’ cutter weirdness — he threw cutters inside-ish to righties more in 2024 than ever before, and while it usually worked out great for him, this was a time when it didn’t, stinging more because it came in an 0-2 count.
2025 outlook
When he walked off the mound after pitching two scoreless innings in the Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres, did the southern California native do so for the last night as an active player?
Maybe.
Early in the season, Chavez indicated that this would be his last year, but given how the season went and the fact that the Braves seemed to be inclined to give him ample opportunities to pitch, could he return for 2025? Who knows. At this point, anything seems possible.
If 2024 was the end, it was a hell of a ride for one of the most beloved non-star players to wear a Braves jersey in Atlanta.
<img alt="MLB: SEP 30 Mets at Braves - Game 2" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/r4hKrAEK2vtx1nQBH6itcya_Lpk=/0x378:2400x1978/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73770915/2175116294.0.jpg">
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The icon returned for another season with Atlanta. Jesse Chavez and the Atlanta Braves go together like peas and carrots.
Chavez didn’t come to Spring Training with the Braves in 2024, but by the time the regular season started there he was, adorned in his number 60 jersey, picking up the win for Atlanta on March 30 — the second game of the season.
By the time this year’s campaign ended, the bespectacled Chavez turned in another lengthy season as “Coach” in the team’s highly effective bullpen, and though the homers got him this time, he can probably keep pitching into his 40s if he wants to.
How acquired
Which time? This time? The Braves signed Chavez to a minor league contract just before the start of the regular season, after he was released by the Chicago White Sox. Atlanta brought him up to the big club for Opening Day. It was a bit of a surprise when Chavez signed a minor league deal with the White Sox and not the Braves back in February, but all ended up right with the world since he didn’t actually miss his chance to be a Brave in 2024.
Before that? Rather that go through that again, click this link to last year’s profile, which links to the years prior, which like Chavez himself just keeps on going.
What were the expectations?
At this point, the expectations for Chavez and his return engagement with the Braves were as high as they could be for a 40-year-old journeyman reliever who seemingly found a magic elixir of pixie dust and youth serum somewhere near the Chattahoochee River a few years ago that turned him into an in-the-conversation-for-being-an-All-Star-for-the-first-time in the last two seasons.
That run-on sentence seems nonsensical if someone doesn’t follow the Braves closely, but for those who do, they understand that the success Chavez found with Atlanta earlier this decade makes no logical sense, nor is there reason to think one season would be repeatable — much less four — especially when looking at his performance with other clubs prior to returning to Atlanta and the pit-stops he made elsewhere during his run with the Braves.
Fundamentally, Chavez was really good reliever in 2021, 2022, and 2023. He totaled 2.4 fWAR across those seasons, and his 68/73/83 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) line suggested that sure, he was getting a bit fortunate, but still relieving very well for a guy whose profile best befits a multi-inning, mop-up option. It gets a bit crazier when you consider that in 2023, he was much better as a Brave than as a Cub or Angel, which makes his Braves numbers in that span even better. So, what should you have expected from Chavez in 2024, his age-40 season? Another really good relief season, akin to his 2022 or 2023? Why not? Even ZiPS had him as a fine reliever, if not a superb one, coming into the season, which is pretty high praise considering his age.
2024 results
Chavez, serving as a low-to-mid-leverage right-handed reliever, pitched in 46 games and logged 63 1⁄3 innings in 2024. Unlike his past few seasons, though, his line ended up with some weirdness.
On the surface, his 75 ERA- was pretty great. But, thanks to his first truly elevated HR/FB rate in four seasons, he finished with a pretty bad 111 FIP-, and -0.2 fWAR. It’s not a particularly common occurrence to have a guy skate by with a low ERA despite getting dinged by homers again and again, but Chavez is anything but a common pitcher.
Chavez’ xFIP- increased to 96, after actually dropping from 87 to 84 to 78 over his last three seasons. The erosion of his strikeout rate was the big driver here, but a 96 xFIP- is still a fine mark for a mop-up long relief guy.
What went right?
Chavez turned 41 in August and was one of the oldest pitchers to play in 2024. That alone is is worth celebrating. But, his presence on the roster wasn’t some kind of lifetime achievement award. He continued to show his trademark pinpoint command, for the most part, though he struggled with the feel of his changeup in a way he really hadn’t in the last few seasons. His cutter and sinker still got the job done. And, of course, the team didn’t really suffer despite all the homers he gave up, which isn’t much of a consolation to Chavez.
Despite his general usage profile, Chavez still came through when the Braves needed him to in higher leverage. On May 12 against the Mets, in the game the Braves eventually lost when Brandon Nimmo hit a walkoff homer against A.J. Minter, Chavez had a pretty big outing in the WPA department that was also reflective of his 2024 because he didn’t strike anyone out. He came on with one out in a tie game in the seventh, with a runner on first. A single, a comebacker-turned-forceout, and a flyout ended that frame, and after the Braves took the lead in the eighth, he came back out and got another flyout to set the Braves up for success (alas).
But, perhaps his best outing of the season came on June 17 — the Tigers had finally gotten to Max Fried to break a scoreless tie in the sixth, and Chavez came on with one out and two on, and struck out the next two batters to escape the inning. Well, he actually struck out the next batter and walked Colt Keith, but then whatever this was happened, and the inning ended despite the walk:
He then fired a patented Chavez 1-2-3, seven-pitch inning; the Braves tied the game up in the seventh and went ahead for good in the eighth.
What went wrong?
Well, ten homers in about 63 innings of work is a lot of homers. And Chavez somehow finished with a negative WPA and a 10/9 shutdown/meltdown ratio, despite a 75 ERA- and the fact that he somehow almost made it all the way through August without said ERA rising above the 3.00 mark. So, it was a weird season all around in that regard, where somehow there weren’t a lot of runs scored while he was pitching, but there were a lot of homers, and the runs that did score while he was pitching mattered a lot. (Let’s just all avert our eyes from his 8+ FIP and 7.00 xFIP in high leverage this year.)
Beyond that, it’s hard to say too much. Chavez clearly had some changeup issues, and there were some really small things with the location of his cutter that he probably wishes were improved, but it’s hard to nitpick when he debuted in 2008 and was mostly done in by HR/FB in a season where inducing balls to die at the warning track felt, at times, like a legitimate, if accidental, strategy.
By far his most damaging outing of the season came in late July in Milwaukee — he entered after Grant Holmes had fired five frames leading to a 2-1 Braves lead, and the inning went single-steal-walk-forceout-Willy Adames three-run homer. Oops.
That clip actually shows a bit of Chavez’ cutter weirdness — he threw cutters inside-ish to righties more in 2024 than ever before, and while it usually worked out great for him, this was a time when it didn’t, stinging more because it came in an 0-2 count.
2025 outlook
When he walked off the mound after pitching two scoreless innings in the Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres, did the southern California native do so for the last night as an active player?
Maybe.
Early in the season, Chavez indicated that this would be his last year, but given how the season went and the fact that the Braves seemed to be inclined to give him ample opportunities to pitch, could he return for 2025? Who knows. At this point, anything seems possible.
If 2024 was the end, it was a hell of a ride for one of the most beloved non-star players to wear a Braves jersey in Atlanta.
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