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Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
We’ve previewed the market for shortstop, starting pitchers, and outfielders – now let’s look at how the Braves might bolster their bullpen. The 2024 Atlanta Braves relied on an undeniably elite bullpen that ranked 3rd in fWAR, 3rd in ERA, and 2nd in FIP. Entering the offseason, they seemed poised to handle the potential loss of A.J. Minter to free agency, with closer Raisel Iglesias coming off one of his best seasons (1.95 ERA, 2.65 FIP in 2024), two fantastic left-handed relievers still under team control in Dylan Lee (2.11 ERA, 3.00 FIP) and Aaron Bummer (3.58 ERA, 2.23 FIP), and two experienced high-leverage arms from the right side in Joe Jiménez (2.62 ERA, 2.34 FIP) and Pierce Johnson (3.67 ERA, 3.61 FIP).
Unfortunately, the injury bug that infested nearly every square inch of the 2024 season has already found its way into the offseason. Earlier this month, it was announced that Joe Jiménez had knee surgery that will sideline him for 8-12 months. Jiménez has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past three seasons and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Best case scenario, the Braves will get him back around the All-Star break. Worst case scenario, he misses the entire season. Either way, it’s a massive loss.
That leaves the Braves with Iglesias, Lee, Bummer, and Johnson as the most established options out of the pen. Grant Holmes (3.56 ERA, 3.20 FIP), had an excellent season as the Braves swingman, and flamethrower Daysbel Hernandez (2.50 ERA, 2.11 FIP) seems very likely to have a spot on the team after he impressed over 18 IP in a limited role. That leaves either two or three open spots, depending on whether or not they decide to use Holmes as a starter or reliever.
There are a couple of interesting internal options on the 40-man roster who could readily fill those spots. One of those names is the 6 ‘8, 265 pound lefty Angel Perdomo. Perdomo was claimed off waivers by the Braves last November. The Braves knew at the time that he would miss the entire 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but given his career 35.8% strikeout rate over parts of three seasons and his 3.01 FIP in 30 games to start 2023, they figured he was worth the hold. The other name is Domingo Gonzalez, who was just added to the 40-man earlier this month. Gonzalez has yet to appear in a MLB game, but he dominated in the minor leagues this past season, posting a 2.91 ERA and 2.75 FIP across 52.2 IP between AA and AAA with a gaudy 38.8 K%.
Perdomo is out of minor league options, so assuming he is healthy at the end of spring training, you can expect him to be in Atlanta at the start of the season. Given the emphasis Alex Anthopoulos has put on the bullpen in recent years, I’d expect them to add one or two relievers (depending on the plan for Holmes) and keep Gonzalez as the proverbial “next man up” in Gwinnett to start 2025.
There are a bevy of high-caliber options at AA’s disposal to consider. Let’s take a look.
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
You could argue that a couple of the names in Tier Two are also better than Raisel Iglesias (who is excellent himself and coming off a tremendous 2024 season). But, in my estimation, these are the only two available arms with enough closer experience and enough of a lights-out track record to convince Brian Snitker to replace Iggy in the 9th.
Devin Williams is so good that they had to give his changeup a new name. Just as his cartoonish “airbender” has been one of the league’s most dominant pitches since his Rookie of the Year season in 2020, he’s been one of the league’s most dominant relievers. There are 275 qualified relievers over the past five years combined – Devin Williams ranks 2nd among them in ERA (1.70), 3rd in FIP (2.24), 2nd in K% (40.8%), 4th in K-BB% (28.8%), and 2nd in fWAR (7.6), He’s an utterly overpowering arm and, despite a couple of disastrous postseason performances over the past couple of seasons, there is almost nobody in the league you would trust more in high leverage. Williams has one more year of arbitration remaining, where he is projected to earn $7.7M. The Brewers have hinted that they may look to deal him in an attempt to make the most of their small-market payroll.
Ryan Helsley broke out in a big way in 2022, and he’s been an unstoppable force ever since. Over the past three seasons, he ranks 3rd in ERA, 4th in FIP, 8th in K%, 7th in K-BB%, and 2nd in fWAR. He gets it done with a blazing fastball that averages 99.6 mph and a wipeout slider. As a team, the Braves ranked 29th in average fastball velocity in 2024. Adding some overwhelming heat in the 9th could prove an important weapon for them in October. Like Williams, Helsley is in his final year of arbitration, projected to make $6.9M. The Cardinals have signaled their intention to reduce payroll this winter, and coming off a second consecutive season of missing the playoffs, they may feel that a top 5 closer in baseball is an unnecessary luxury for the 2025 season.
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Let’s start with A.J. Minter, one of the most consistently excellent left-handed relievers in MLB. Minter is the second-longest tenured Brave from the 2024 team, debuting in August of 2017, just a few weeks after Ozzie Albies. Among lefty relievers with at least 100 IP over the past 5 years, Minter ranks 5th in ERA, 1st in FIP, and 3rd in fWAR. The trouble is, in the same time frame, Dylan Lee ranks 2nd in ERA and 8th in FIP, and Aaron Bummer ranks 2nd in FIP and 4th in fWAR.
On the one hand, with Lee and Bummer in the fold and Perdomo representing another interesting lefty reliever, it would be surprising to see Minter back in a Braves uniform in 2025. On the other hand, Minter hinted strongly that he expects to be back in Atlanta after his season was cut short due to a hip injury, and he actually has a better K-BB% and wOBA against RHH over the past three seasons (which is why Snitker has said he sees Minter as a high-leverage reliever more than a left-handed reliever). Besides, Minter and the Night Shift proved in 2021 that it’s not a bad thing to have a plethora of high-leverage lefties at the back of your bullpen.
Jeff Hoffman has been exceptional since he arrived in Philly in 2023 and has the combination of high strikeouts and weak contact that AA often covets. Old friends Kirby Yates and Chris Martin continue to be reliable high-leverage options even in their late 30s, with Yates putting together a 1.17 ERA, 1.81 FIP season as the Rangers’ closer in 2024. Clay Holmes has become criminally underrated as something akin to a right-handed version of Zach Britton – he hasn’t run a GB% under 65% since the 2020 season. Camilo Doval trade rumors have been swirling in the early portion of the offseason, and he’d be an interesting high-octane, buy-low target for AA. Robertson will turn 40 in April, but he’s been durable and exceptional in each of the past three seasons and might be an attractive option on a one-year deal.
The rest of the names in Tier Two seem unlikely to come to Atlanta. Scott, Chapman, and Coloumbe are all tremendous, but it would be shocking to see the Braves bring in a lefty that isn’t Minter. Old friend Kenley Jansen would likely prefer to go somewhere he can be the clear closer, and it’s difficult to see Treinen leaving LAD after he was the most reliable high-leverage bullpen arm in their World Series run. Carlos Estevez throws hard but doesn’t seem likely to be an Anthopoulos target – low K% for a reliever and doesn’t have the track record of an elite reliever beyond 2024 like the other names on this list.
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
We’ll start with the closers coming off rough seasons.
It’s still unclear what Toronto plans to do in 2025, but if they’re selling, Romano is almost certain to be moved in his final year of team control. He was off to a rough start in 2024 before an elbow impingement ended his season in May, but he had been a terrific closer in the three seasons prior – if he’s available, don’t be surprised if Anthopoulos makes a play for him. Kimbrel still gets his strikeouts, but the walks and homers were so bad in 2024 that the Orioles wound up releasing him right before the playoffs started, and he hasn’t been truly elite for several years. Sewald wasn’t his usual self after injury delayed the start of his season, but like Romano, he had been terrific for three years prior to that and may still have something in the tank.
Now for the intriguing setup guys.
Leclerc seems like a strong AA target – his ERA in 2024 was much higher than his peripherals, he averages over 95 mph on his fastball, and he’s elite at eliciting whiffs. Yimi García also seems like a good target for any savvy team. He had a 36.5% K, 7.0% BB, 2.70 ERA, and 2.67 FIP in 30 IP with Toronto to start the year and was traded to Seattle ahead of the deadline. Once he arrived in Seattle, his pitch mix changed, and he was terrible down the stretch. López had the opposite experience of García in 2024. He was released by the Mets after hurling his glove into the stands following a meltdown performance, and the Cubs eventually picked him up on a minor league deal. They adjusted his pitch mix, having him throw more four-seamers and significantly fewer sinkers, and he ultimately pitched to a 29.2% K, 7.5% BB, 2.03 ERA, and 3.20 FIP as a Cub. Ottavino is an interesting buy-low candidate — he still gets plenty of strikeouts and is coming off a year where his 3.13 xERA was far superior to his 4.34 ERA. Kittredge had a great year with STL, and while his relatively low K% makes him an unlikely target for AA, the rate at which he produced both called and swinging strikes suggests he may have more strikeouts in him. Kahnle made headlines with his oops, all changeups approach to October and has excellent plate discipline numbers that make him an interesting option. Like the other non-Minter lefties in Tier Two, Chafin isn’t the best fit for the Braves in 2025.
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
None of the names in this category would be trusted with high leverage innings without some big improvement on their recent performance, so we’ll touch briefly on just a few of them.
If they spend big on other parts of the roster and need to go with a lower-budget option in the bullpen, don’t be surprised to see Luke Jackson back as a low-leverage arm. Michael Soroka is the most intriguing name on this list — he’s by far the youngest RP in any tier, and he actually seemed to figure something out as a reliever, posting a 39.0% K rate that ranked 2nd in MLB among RP with at least 30 IP (behind only Mason Miller, who throws 104 mph). Luis García is an interesting Clay Holmes-lite type of option – he throws hard and gets a ton of ground balls – but he’ll be entering his age 38 season and has seen his velocity start to decline over the past couple of seasons. Stanek throws extremely hard, but hasn’t had much sustained success in MLB. Barlow and Armstrong are similar cases – both were excellent in recent years, but both have lost a couple ticks off their fastball over the past few seasons and would need to find a way to regain velocity before you could feel good about trusting them in big spots.
Conclusion
The reliever market is deep this year, and there are a ton of different directions the Braves could go. If you’re looking at “who would most improve the team,” trading for Devin Williams or Ryan Helsley is probably the path. If you’re looking for the best value, I could make the argument for a number of different arms – some of my favorites being José Leclerc, Yimi García, and Camilo Doval.
But if you’re looking for who is most likely to fill an open bullpen spot in Atlanta, it’s A.J. Minter. Between the diminished contract he’s likely to get as a result of his hip injury, the fact that he’s performed better vs. RHH than LHH over the past three years, and the club’s obvious familiarity with his upside and how he fits in the clubhouse, it just makes too much sense. If that’s not convincing enough, though, let me remind you of the post Minter made on Instagram after it was announced that his season was cut short due to injury. The song on the post: “Rather Be,” with artist Jess Glynne singing the lyrics “There’s no place I’d rather be.” And the quote from Mint: “...My number one goal is to get healthy so I can help this organization win another World Series next year.”
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9NJ9gk_Z7SM-snJPY8VTrRzw_lQ=/0x0:7038x4692/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73731361/2166242233.0.jpg">
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
We’ve previewed the market for shortstop, starting pitchers, and outfielders – now let’s look at how the Braves might bolster their bullpen. The 2024 Atlanta Braves relied on an undeniably elite bullpen that ranked 3rd in fWAR, 3rd in ERA, and 2nd in FIP. Entering the offseason, they seemed poised to handle the potential loss of A.J. Minter to free agency, with closer Raisel Iglesias coming off one of his best seasons (1.95 ERA, 2.65 FIP in 2024), two fantastic left-handed relievers still under team control in Dylan Lee (2.11 ERA, 3.00 FIP) and Aaron Bummer (3.58 ERA, 2.23 FIP), and two experienced high-leverage arms from the right side in Joe Jiménez (2.62 ERA, 2.34 FIP) and Pierce Johnson (3.67 ERA, 3.61 FIP).
Unfortunately, the injury bug that infested nearly every square inch of the 2024 season has already found its way into the offseason. Earlier this month, it was announced that Joe Jiménez had knee surgery that will sideline him for 8-12 months. Jiménez has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past three seasons and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Best case scenario, the Braves will get him back around the All-Star break. Worst case scenario, he misses the entire season. Either way, it’s a massive loss.
That leaves the Braves with Iglesias, Lee, Bummer, and Johnson as the most established options out of the pen. Grant Holmes (3.56 ERA, 3.20 FIP), had an excellent season as the Braves swingman, and flamethrower Daysbel Hernandez (2.50 ERA, 2.11 FIP) seems very likely to have a spot on the team after he impressed over 18 IP in a limited role. That leaves either two or three open spots, depending on whether or not they decide to use Holmes as a starter or reliever.
There are a couple of interesting internal options on the 40-man roster who could readily fill those spots. One of those names is the 6 ‘8, 265 pound lefty Angel Perdomo. Perdomo was claimed off waivers by the Braves last November. The Braves knew at the time that he would miss the entire 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but given his career 35.8% strikeout rate over parts of three seasons and his 3.01 FIP in 30 games to start 2023, they figured he was worth the hold. The other name is Domingo Gonzalez, who was just added to the 40-man earlier this month. Gonzalez has yet to appear in a MLB game, but he dominated in the minor leagues this past season, posting a 2.91 ERA and 2.75 FIP across 52.2 IP between AA and AAA with a gaudy 38.8 K%.
Perdomo is out of minor league options, so assuming he is healthy at the end of spring training, you can expect him to be in Atlanta at the start of the season. Given the emphasis Alex Anthopoulos has put on the bullpen in recent years, I’d expect them to add one or two relievers (depending on the plan for Holmes) and keep Gonzalez as the proverbial “next man up” in Gwinnett to start 2025.
There are a bevy of high-caliber options at AA’s disposal to consider. Let’s take a look.
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
You could argue that a couple of the names in Tier Two are also better than Raisel Iglesias (who is excellent himself and coming off a tremendous 2024 season). But, in my estimation, these are the only two available arms with enough closer experience and enough of a lights-out track record to convince Brian Snitker to replace Iggy in the 9th.
Devin Williams is so good that they had to give his changeup a new name. Just as his cartoonish “airbender” has been one of the league’s most dominant pitches since his Rookie of the Year season in 2020, he’s been one of the league’s most dominant relievers. There are 275 qualified relievers over the past five years combined – Devin Williams ranks 2nd among them in ERA (1.70), 3rd in FIP (2.24), 2nd in K% (40.8%), 4th in K-BB% (28.8%), and 2nd in fWAR (7.6), He’s an utterly overpowering arm and, despite a couple of disastrous postseason performances over the past couple of seasons, there is almost nobody in the league you would trust more in high leverage. Williams has one more year of arbitration remaining, where he is projected to earn $7.7M. The Brewers have hinted that they may look to deal him in an attempt to make the most of their small-market payroll.
Ryan Helsley broke out in a big way in 2022, and he’s been an unstoppable force ever since. Over the past three seasons, he ranks 3rd in ERA, 4th in FIP, 8th in K%, 7th in K-BB%, and 2nd in fWAR. He gets it done with a blazing fastball that averages 99.6 mph and a wipeout slider. As a team, the Braves ranked 29th in average fastball velocity in 2024. Adding some overwhelming heat in the 9th could prove an important weapon for them in October. Like Williams, Helsley is in his final year of arbitration, projected to make $6.9M. The Cardinals have signaled their intention to reduce payroll this winter, and coming off a second consecutive season of missing the playoffs, they may feel that a top 5 closer in baseball is an unnecessary luxury for the 2025 season.
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Let’s start with A.J. Minter, one of the most consistently excellent left-handed relievers in MLB. Minter is the second-longest tenured Brave from the 2024 team, debuting in August of 2017, just a few weeks after Ozzie Albies. Among lefty relievers with at least 100 IP over the past 5 years, Minter ranks 5th in ERA, 1st in FIP, and 3rd in fWAR. The trouble is, in the same time frame, Dylan Lee ranks 2nd in ERA and 8th in FIP, and Aaron Bummer ranks 2nd in FIP and 4th in fWAR.
On the one hand, with Lee and Bummer in the fold and Perdomo representing another interesting lefty reliever, it would be surprising to see Minter back in a Braves uniform in 2025. On the other hand, Minter hinted strongly that he expects to be back in Atlanta after his season was cut short due to a hip injury, and he actually has a better K-BB% and wOBA against RHH over the past three seasons (which is why Snitker has said he sees Minter as a high-leverage reliever more than a left-handed reliever). Besides, Minter and the Night Shift proved in 2021 that it’s not a bad thing to have a plethora of high-leverage lefties at the back of your bullpen.
Jeff Hoffman has been exceptional since he arrived in Philly in 2023 and has the combination of high strikeouts and weak contact that AA often covets. Old friends Kirby Yates and Chris Martin continue to be reliable high-leverage options even in their late 30s, with Yates putting together a 1.17 ERA, 1.81 FIP season as the Rangers’ closer in 2024. Clay Holmes has become criminally underrated as something akin to a right-handed version of Zach Britton – he hasn’t run a GB% under 65% since the 2020 season. Camilo Doval trade rumors have been swirling in the early portion of the offseason, and he’d be an interesting high-octane, buy-low target for AA. Robertson will turn 40 in April, but he’s been durable and exceptional in each of the past three seasons and might be an attractive option on a one-year deal.
The rest of the names in Tier Two seem unlikely to come to Atlanta. Scott, Chapman, and Coloumbe are all tremendous, but it would be shocking to see the Braves bring in a lefty that isn’t Minter. Old friend Kenley Jansen would likely prefer to go somewhere he can be the clear closer, and it’s difficult to see Treinen leaving LAD after he was the most reliable high-leverage bullpen arm in their World Series run. Carlos Estevez throws hard but doesn’t seem likely to be an Anthopoulos target – low K% for a reliever and doesn’t have the track record of an elite reliever beyond 2024 like the other names on this list.
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
We’ll start with the closers coming off rough seasons.
It’s still unclear what Toronto plans to do in 2025, but if they’re selling, Romano is almost certain to be moved in his final year of team control. He was off to a rough start in 2024 before an elbow impingement ended his season in May, but he had been a terrific closer in the three seasons prior – if he’s available, don’t be surprised if Anthopoulos makes a play for him. Kimbrel still gets his strikeouts, but the walks and homers were so bad in 2024 that the Orioles wound up releasing him right before the playoffs started, and he hasn’t been truly elite for several years. Sewald wasn’t his usual self after injury delayed the start of his season, but like Romano, he had been terrific for three years prior to that and may still have something in the tank.
Now for the intriguing setup guys.
Leclerc seems like a strong AA target – his ERA in 2024 was much higher than his peripherals, he averages over 95 mph on his fastball, and he’s elite at eliciting whiffs. Yimi García also seems like a good target for any savvy team. He had a 36.5% K, 7.0% BB, 2.70 ERA, and 2.67 FIP in 30 IP with Toronto to start the year and was traded to Seattle ahead of the deadline. Once he arrived in Seattle, his pitch mix changed, and he was terrible down the stretch. López had the opposite experience of García in 2024. He was released by the Mets after hurling his glove into the stands following a meltdown performance, and the Cubs eventually picked him up on a minor league deal. They adjusted his pitch mix, having him throw more four-seamers and significantly fewer sinkers, and he ultimately pitched to a 29.2% K, 7.5% BB, 2.03 ERA, and 3.20 FIP as a Cub. Ottavino is an interesting buy-low candidate — he still gets plenty of strikeouts and is coming off a year where his 3.13 xERA was far superior to his 4.34 ERA. Kittredge had a great year with STL, and while his relatively low K% makes him an unlikely target for AA, the rate at which he produced both called and swinging strikes suggests he may have more strikeouts in him. Kahnle made headlines with his oops, all changeups approach to October and has excellent plate discipline numbers that make him an interesting option. Like the other non-Minter lefties in Tier Two, Chafin isn’t the best fit for the Braves in 2025.
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
None of the names in this category would be trusted with high leverage innings without some big improvement on their recent performance, so we’ll touch briefly on just a few of them.
If they spend big on other parts of the roster and need to go with a lower-budget option in the bullpen, don’t be surprised to see Luke Jackson back as a low-leverage arm. Michael Soroka is the most intriguing name on this list — he’s by far the youngest RP in any tier, and he actually seemed to figure something out as a reliever, posting a 39.0% K rate that ranked 2nd in MLB among RP with at least 30 IP (behind only Mason Miller, who throws 104 mph). Luis García is an interesting Clay Holmes-lite type of option – he throws hard and gets a ton of ground balls – but he’ll be entering his age 38 season and has seen his velocity start to decline over the past couple of seasons. Stanek throws extremely hard, but hasn’t had much sustained success in MLB. Barlow and Armstrong are similar cases – both were excellent in recent years, but both have lost a couple ticks off their fastball over the past few seasons and would need to find a way to regain velocity before you could feel good about trusting them in big spots.
Conclusion
The reliever market is deep this year, and there are a ton of different directions the Braves could go. If you’re looking at “who would most improve the team,” trading for Devin Williams or Ryan Helsley is probably the path. If you’re looking for the best value, I could make the argument for a number of different arms – some of my favorites being José Leclerc, Yimi García, and Camilo Doval.
But if you’re looking for who is most likely to fill an open bullpen spot in Atlanta, it’s A.J. Minter. Between the diminished contract he’s likely to get as a result of his hip injury, the fact that he’s performed better vs. RHH than LHH over the past three years, and the club’s obvious familiarity with his upside and how he fits in the clubhouse, it just makes too much sense. If that’s not convincing enough, though, let me remind you of the post Minter made on Instagram after it was announced that his season was cut short due to injury. The song on the post: “Rather Be,” with artist Jess Glynne singing the lyrics “There’s no place I’d rather be.” And the quote from Mint: “...My number one goal is to get healthy so I can help this organization win another World Series next year.”
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