<img alt="MLB: MAR 09 Spring Training - Orioles at Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xXFJ-9_drw9H6mYvsmbiUQyFKQM=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73717923/2063599242.0.jpg">
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The last two seasons have been about as rough as they can be for Ynoa Once a potential rising star and a player considered integral to the Atlanta Braves future plans, the wheels has all but fallen off for Huascar Ynoa, who is now three seasons removed from major league success. Ynoa hasn’t regained his velocity following 2022 Tommy John surgery, and could be on Atlanta’s 40-man chopping block in the near future.
How acquired
Initially a July, 2014 international signee for the Minnesota Twins, Ynoa was one of the last of the rebuild-era prospect trades for the Braves. Before the 2017 trade deadline the Braves traded away Jaime Garcia, Anthony Recker, and cash to the Twins to acquire Ynoa, and in the 2018 offseason he was added to the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.
What were the expectations?
Following his poor season in 2022 Ynoa had Tommy John surgery on September 7th, which kept him sidelined through the entirety of the 2023 season. Expectations were thus limited, with Ynoa thought to potentially fit into the Braves Quad-A shuttle but unlikely to make any real impact at the Major League level. The biggest key for Ynoa would be a return to form with his raw stuff and the ability to stay healthy throughout most of the season to try to earn a spot in the rotation.
2024 Results
Ynoa made his first regular season appearance for Gwinnett on April 3rd, just a few days short of the 17-month mark post-surgery, and though he went four scoreless innings he sparked immediate concern with the quality of his stuff. In his short time in Atlanta in 2022 Ynoa averaged 96.4 mph on his fastball, his velocity the hallmark of his entire profile. In his first game of 2024 he averaged only 91.3 mph on the pitch, and while some velocity loss post Tommy John surgery is to be expected it was a rather extreme drop. Ynoa’s velocity did bump up to 92.3 mph in his April 14th start, but soon after he hit the 60 day injured list due to a “right elbow stress reaction” and that was his final start until he re-appeared mid-summer. After a two game stint in North Port in July Ynoa returned to Gwinnett to close out the season, where his results failed to induce confidence in his future.
Ynoa did come back hot with his arm, averaging 93.6 mph on his fastball in his first Triple-A start back off of the injured list and going three scoreless innings. Ynoa made three straight appearances of 40+ pitched and allowed only one run over 9 2⁄3 innings, but yet again the velocity question started to creep in as he dipped down to 92.8 mph and 92.7 mph on the pitch in his next two games, respectively. Ynoa then missed another month of action, and when he returned to the field didn’t throw more than 39 pitches in any of his final six appearances. In these shorter stints Ynoa did show a flash of promise, with each of his final five games featuring an average fastball velocity over 94 mph, including a 96.2 mph showing on September 7th, but failed to produce statistically down the stretch. Over those six relief appearances Ynoa walked as many batters as he struck out, with a 12.86 ERA and 6.43 FIP. In total Ynoa pitched just 26 1⁄3 innings in Triple-A, with a 6.15 ERA, 5.09 FIP, and 5.04 xFIP.
What went right?
The only real positive spin for Ynoa on the season is that he did pitch, and that towards the end of the season there was a glimmer of hope with his velocity. Ynoa was tumbling towards a non-tender when he was averaging 91-93 mph on his fastball, but the increased velocity he showed gives him some chance of getting a look out of the bullpen next season. Ynoa has had some major league success when he has lived in the upper 90’s, and while he didn’t get to that point last season he did show enough recovery to potentially be brought into spring training in 2025.
What went wrong?
Ynoa was simply a mess, and it wasn’t just the injuries and velocity problems that plagued his season. Ynoa struggled to repeat his delivery and failed to locate either of his secondaries effectively, and hitters were not going to miss him at those lower velocities. Ynoa has now lost effectively two full seasons of development time, and has likely been passed by other, younger pitchers. He has all of the same warts as when he struggled in 2022, with an inconsistent release and a release point gap between his pitches that makes them easier to pick up out of the hand. Now though he lacks the elite velocity that helped him beat hitters in 2021, and he will need to improve both his command and velocity to get back to a major league role.
2025 Outlook
The big day for Huascar Ynoa will be the non-tender deadline on November 22nd, as there is still a reasonable shot he is not going to be tendered a contract for 2025. He is one of the handful of players at the back end of the 40 man roster that will remain at risk of losing their spot, and Ynoa’s lack of recent success is concerning. If he remains a Brave the question will be whether they stretch him out to start or leave him in the bullpen, but his inability to stay healthy and put together consistent command will likely push him to a relief role. There are so many unanswered questions for Ynoa that it’s hard to forecast his future, but what is clear is that if his velocity does not return to 2021 and 2022 levels his major league career may not get another chance.
<img alt="MLB: MAR 09 Spring Training - Orioles at Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xXFJ-9_drw9H6mYvsmbiUQyFKQM=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73717923/2063599242.0.jpg">
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The last two seasons have been about as rough as they can be for Ynoa Once a potential rising star and a player considered integral to the Atlanta Braves future plans, the wheels has all but fallen off for Huascar Ynoa, who is now three seasons removed from major league success. Ynoa hasn’t regained his velocity following 2022 Tommy John surgery, and could be on Atlanta’s 40-man chopping block in the near future.
How acquired
Initially a July, 2014 international signee for the Minnesota Twins, Ynoa was one of the last of the rebuild-era prospect trades for the Braves. Before the 2017 trade deadline the Braves traded away Jaime Garcia, Anthony Recker, and cash to the Twins to acquire Ynoa, and in the 2018 offseason he was added to the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.
What were the expectations?
Following his poor season in 2022 Ynoa had Tommy John surgery on September 7th, which kept him sidelined through the entirety of the 2023 season. Expectations were thus limited, with Ynoa thought to potentially fit into the Braves Quad-A shuttle but unlikely to make any real impact at the Major League level. The biggest key for Ynoa would be a return to form with his raw stuff and the ability to stay healthy throughout most of the season to try to earn a spot in the rotation.
2024 Results
Ynoa made his first regular season appearance for Gwinnett on April 3rd, just a few days short of the 17-month mark post-surgery, and though he went four scoreless innings he sparked immediate concern with the quality of his stuff. In his short time in Atlanta in 2022 Ynoa averaged 96.4 mph on his fastball, his velocity the hallmark of his entire profile. In his first game of 2024 he averaged only 91.3 mph on the pitch, and while some velocity loss post Tommy John surgery is to be expected it was a rather extreme drop. Ynoa’s velocity did bump up to 92.3 mph in his April 14th start, but soon after he hit the 60 day injured list due to a “right elbow stress reaction” and that was his final start until he re-appeared mid-summer. After a two game stint in North Port in July Ynoa returned to Gwinnett to close out the season, where his results failed to induce confidence in his future.
Ynoa did come back hot with his arm, averaging 93.6 mph on his fastball in his first Triple-A start back off of the injured list and going three scoreless innings. Ynoa made three straight appearances of 40+ pitched and allowed only one run over 9 2⁄3 innings, but yet again the velocity question started to creep in as he dipped down to 92.8 mph and 92.7 mph on the pitch in his next two games, respectively. Ynoa then missed another month of action, and when he returned to the field didn’t throw more than 39 pitches in any of his final six appearances. In these shorter stints Ynoa did show a flash of promise, with each of his final five games featuring an average fastball velocity over 94 mph, including a 96.2 mph showing on September 7th, but failed to produce statistically down the stretch. Over those six relief appearances Ynoa walked as many batters as he struck out, with a 12.86 ERA and 6.43 FIP. In total Ynoa pitched just 26 1⁄3 innings in Triple-A, with a 6.15 ERA, 5.09 FIP, and 5.04 xFIP.
What went right?
The only real positive spin for Ynoa on the season is that he did pitch, and that towards the end of the season there was a glimmer of hope with his velocity. Ynoa was tumbling towards a non-tender when he was averaging 91-93 mph on his fastball, but the increased velocity he showed gives him some chance of getting a look out of the bullpen next season. Ynoa has had some major league success when he has lived in the upper 90’s, and while he didn’t get to that point last season he did show enough recovery to potentially be brought into spring training in 2025.
What went wrong?
Ynoa was simply a mess, and it wasn’t just the injuries and velocity problems that plagued his season. Ynoa struggled to repeat his delivery and failed to locate either of his secondaries effectively, and hitters were not going to miss him at those lower velocities. Ynoa has now lost effectively two full seasons of development time, and has likely been passed by other, younger pitchers. He has all of the same warts as when he struggled in 2022, with an inconsistent release and a release point gap between his pitches that makes them easier to pick up out of the hand. Now though he lacks the elite velocity that helped him beat hitters in 2021, and he will need to improve both his command and velocity to get back to a major league role.
2025 Outlook
The big day for Huascar Ynoa will be the non-tender deadline on November 22nd, as there is still a reasonable shot he is not going to be tendered a contract for 2025. He is one of the handful of players at the back end of the 40 man roster that will remain at risk of losing their spot, and Ynoa’s lack of recent success is concerning. If he remains a Brave the question will be whether they stretch him out to start or leave him in the bullpen, but his inability to stay healthy and put together consistent command will likely push him to a relief role. There are so many unanswered questions for Ynoa that it’s hard to forecast his future, but what is clear is that if his velocity does not return to 2021 and 2022 levels his major league career may not get another chance.
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