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Alvarez made his MLB debut this year after a stellar stint in the minors. One season of community college ball was all it took for the Atlanta Braves to be comfortable taking Nacho Alvarez Jr. with their fifth selection in the 2022 draft. After spending all of 2023 in High-A, Alvarez ascended through the system in 2024, culminating in his big league debut.
How acquired
The Braves selected Alvarez with their fifth round pick — 155th overall — in the 2022 draft out of Riverside City College. He received a $497,500 signing bonus from Atlanta.
What were the expectations?
Given that Alvarez spent 2023 in High-A, there wasn’t much of an expectation that he’d do anything at the major league level in 2024. Sure, hype began to build as he more than held his own at Double-A and then hit even better at Triple-A, and the Braves have gotten a lot out of guys who seemed unlikely call-ups at the time, but it’s hard to say that the majority opinion was one that expected Alvarez to come up and produce in a pinch.
2024 Results
When the season began, it didn’t seem all too likely that Alvarez would see the bigs in 2024. But, as fate would have it, after Ozzie Albies fractured his wrist in late July, Alvarez Jr. got the call and made his debut against the Cincinnati Reds. Fortunately for Alvarez, he was hitting quite well at the time, so giving him a look seemed fairly obvious.
Prior to his call-up, Alvarez put up decent numbers at Double-A to begin his season. In 48 games, Alvarez Jr. he had an odd-looking .265/.381/.312 slash line for Mississippi, good for a 116 wRC+. That’s a huge OBP-SLG gap, and not in the usual direction. One big reason for it: in his 202 Double-A PAs, Alvarez didn’t hit a single homer. Sure, Trustmark Park is a tough hitting environment, but that’s an oddity for sure.
That didn’t stop him from being promoted to Triple-A, however, and then he really took off. His final line, including post-call-up, included a 128 wRC+ and a much more “normal” .297/.398/.463 line across 289 PAs. It seemed as though Alvarez flipped a switch when it came to power, as he notched 10 home runs in 64 games, while his strikeout rate fell by over three percentage points.
Honestly, Alvarez was pretty much on fire before his promotion: across 132 Triple-A PAs pre-call-up, he had an insane 162 wRC+ with a .336/.432/.575 line, and seven of his ten hmers. Those numbers were more good enough to merit giving the 21-year-old the call to the show.
Unfortunately, he couldn’t sustain anything. Alvarez simply looked overmatched during his brief stint in Atlanta. In eight games, and 32 PAs, he had three singles, zero walks, and ten strikeouts. He also finished below-average defensively in a tiny sample. Accumulating -0.5 fWAR in 32 PAs is a rough debut, but that’s the debut Alvarez had.
What went right?
Alvarez hit well enough in the minors to fly through the system. As far as his stint in the majors goes, he had this hard-hit single off a fastball against the Mets, which was probably the most positive thing you can say about his cup of coffee in Atlanta.
What went wrong?
It was a common refrain among those watching his performance in Triple-A that Alvarez wasn’t getting around on fastballs. While Alvarez’ overall stint in the majors was a whole lotta nothing offensively (.197 xwOBA, 28.1 percent whiff rate), it was even worse (somehow) against fastballs of all types, with a .161 xwOBA and a slightly higher whiff rate. Take out sinkers and cutters, and the performance drops to a .129 xwOBA and a 42.1 percent whiff rate.
It’s worth noting, at least at Triple-A, that while Alvarez’ overall quality of contact wasn’t really all that good, he still hit four-seamers better than other stuff. But, given that teams are going to challenge him with the fastball until he shows he can hit it, and given his own issues with contact quality in general, it’s a clear flaw in his game right now.
The Braves’ 3-2 loss to the Mets on July 25 was one of their most brutal games of the season, what with Ramon Laureano getting thrown out on a botched squeeze and overrunning a fly ball. But it was also Alvarez’ most brutal game of his brief stint in the majors. He started the game with two groundouts, and then had two strikeouts against Mets relievers, each with less than two outs and the go-ahead run on second. In the ninth-inning PA, Edwin Diaz threw him four straight four-seamers — Alvarez took the first two, was late and fouled off one down the pipe, and then struck out on one at the top of the zone.
Sure, Edwin Diaz isn’t an easy matchup, but Alvarez also struck out against Jose Butto, who threw him six fastballs in seven pitches, and got two whiffs on fastballs in the zone after falling behind 3-1.
2025 outlook
Sure, Alvarez’ first stint in the majors was terrible, but let’s take it with a grain of salt. His bat-to-ball skills seem good, and there don’t seem to be issues with his defense. But, unless MLB continues to make drastic changes to the circumstances of the game, power still plays, and Alvarez just isn’t much of a thumper, which dampens his outlook as a big league regular. At a minimum, he’s gotta be able to do something with fastballs that isn’t just fighting them off.
Alvarez will most likely begin 2025 at Gwinnett, where he has a very clear set of skills he needs to further develop. However, given the questions around the shortstop position for Atlanta, and assuming the Braves don’t upgrade in free agency, there is the chance — albeit a small one — that the Braves roll the dice and trot out Alvarez at the club’s starting shortstop. If Orlando Arcia struggles again, Alvarez supplanting him becomes a more realistic possibility.
Theoretically, a guy that’s done what Alvarez has so far in the minors, along with his defensive aptitude and flexibility, should already be something akin to a good bench guy or a starter on a bad team. But, Alvarez has some pretty unusual holes in his profile for a guy that’s succeeded in the high minors, and he really needs to patch them before it makes sense to give him an extended shot.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Milwaukee Brewers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3V3TPANsG8TGQ8OpvqAVNEqNcx4=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73709462/2164408430.0.jpg">
Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images
Alvarez made his MLB debut this year after a stellar stint in the minors. One season of community college ball was all it took for the Atlanta Braves to be comfortable taking Nacho Alvarez Jr. with their fifth selection in the 2022 draft. After spending all of 2023 in High-A, Alvarez ascended through the system in 2024, culminating in his big league debut.
How acquired
The Braves selected Alvarez with their fifth round pick — 155th overall — in the 2022 draft out of Riverside City College. He received a $497,500 signing bonus from Atlanta.
What were the expectations?
Given that Alvarez spent 2023 in High-A, there wasn’t much of an expectation that he’d do anything at the major league level in 2024. Sure, hype began to build as he more than held his own at Double-A and then hit even better at Triple-A, and the Braves have gotten a lot out of guys who seemed unlikely call-ups at the time, but it’s hard to say that the majority opinion was one that expected Alvarez to come up and produce in a pinch.
2024 Results
When the season began, it didn’t seem all too likely that Alvarez would see the bigs in 2024. But, as fate would have it, after Ozzie Albies fractured his wrist in late July, Alvarez Jr. got the call and made his debut against the Cincinnati Reds. Fortunately for Alvarez, he was hitting quite well at the time, so giving him a look seemed fairly obvious.
Prior to his call-up, Alvarez put up decent numbers at Double-A to begin his season. In 48 games, Alvarez Jr. he had an odd-looking .265/.381/.312 slash line for Mississippi, good for a 116 wRC+. That’s a huge OBP-SLG gap, and not in the usual direction. One big reason for it: in his 202 Double-A PAs, Alvarez didn’t hit a single homer. Sure, Trustmark Park is a tough hitting environment, but that’s an oddity for sure.
That didn’t stop him from being promoted to Triple-A, however, and then he really took off. His final line, including post-call-up, included a 128 wRC+ and a much more “normal” .297/.398/.463 line across 289 PAs. It seemed as though Alvarez flipped a switch when it came to power, as he notched 10 home runs in 64 games, while his strikeout rate fell by over three percentage points.
Honestly, Alvarez was pretty much on fire before his promotion: across 132 Triple-A PAs pre-call-up, he had an insane 162 wRC+ with a .336/.432/.575 line, and seven of his ten hmers. Those numbers were more good enough to merit giving the 21-year-old the call to the show.
Unfortunately, he couldn’t sustain anything. Alvarez simply looked overmatched during his brief stint in Atlanta. In eight games, and 32 PAs, he had three singles, zero walks, and ten strikeouts. He also finished below-average defensively in a tiny sample. Accumulating -0.5 fWAR in 32 PAs is a rough debut, but that’s the debut Alvarez had.
What went right?
Alvarez hit well enough in the minors to fly through the system. As far as his stint in the majors goes, he had this hard-hit single off a fastball against the Mets, which was probably the most positive thing you can say about his cup of coffee in Atlanta.
What went wrong?
It was a common refrain among those watching his performance in Triple-A that Alvarez wasn’t getting around on fastballs. While Alvarez’ overall stint in the majors was a whole lotta nothing offensively (.197 xwOBA, 28.1 percent whiff rate), it was even worse (somehow) against fastballs of all types, with a .161 xwOBA and a slightly higher whiff rate. Take out sinkers and cutters, and the performance drops to a .129 xwOBA and a 42.1 percent whiff rate.
It’s worth noting, at least at Triple-A, that while Alvarez’ overall quality of contact wasn’t really all that good, he still hit four-seamers better than other stuff. But, given that teams are going to challenge him with the fastball until he shows he can hit it, and given his own issues with contact quality in general, it’s a clear flaw in his game right now.
The Braves’ 3-2 loss to the Mets on July 25 was one of their most brutal games of the season, what with Ramon Laureano getting thrown out on a botched squeeze and overrunning a fly ball. But it was also Alvarez’ most brutal game of his brief stint in the majors. He started the game with two groundouts, and then had two strikeouts against Mets relievers, each with less than two outs and the go-ahead run on second. In the ninth-inning PA, Edwin Diaz threw him four straight four-seamers — Alvarez took the first two, was late and fouled off one down the pipe, and then struck out on one at the top of the zone.
Sure, Edwin Diaz isn’t an easy matchup, but Alvarez also struck out against Jose Butto, who threw him six fastballs in seven pitches, and got two whiffs on fastballs in the zone after falling behind 3-1.
2025 outlook
Sure, Alvarez’ first stint in the majors was terrible, but let’s take it with a grain of salt. His bat-to-ball skills seem good, and there don’t seem to be issues with his defense. But, unless MLB continues to make drastic changes to the circumstances of the game, power still plays, and Alvarez just isn’t much of a thumper, which dampens his outlook as a big league regular. At a minimum, he’s gotta be able to do something with fastballs that isn’t just fighting them off.
Alvarez will most likely begin 2025 at Gwinnett, where he has a very clear set of skills he needs to further develop. However, given the questions around the shortstop position for Atlanta, and assuming the Braves don’t upgrade in free agency, there is the chance — albeit a small one — that the Braves roll the dice and trot out Alvarez at the club’s starting shortstop. If Orlando Arcia struggles again, Alvarez supplanting him becomes a more realistic possibility.
Theoretically, a guy that’s done what Alvarez has so far in the minors, along with his defensive aptitude and flexibility, should already be something akin to a good bench guy or a starter on a bad team. But, Alvarez has some pretty unusual holes in his profile for a guy that’s succeeded in the high minors, and he really needs to patch them before it makes sense to give him an extended shot.
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