<img alt="Texas Rangers v Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/elKFcYhPVCvaMR9sbJHek98sbN0=/0x0:4200x2800/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73704672/2149728636.0.jpg">
Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
Darius Vines had his chance to grab a major league role in 2024, but played his way off of the 40-man roster instead Darius Vines turned in a not-altogether-horrible rookie campaign for the Atlanta Braves in 2023, but 2024 was a nightmare on every level. After being poised to join the shuttle between Gwinnett and Atlanta for the near future, he instead lost his 40-man roster spot and now finds his health in question.
How acquired
Darius Vines was twice drafted — once out of high school and once out of junior college — before the Braves took him in the 7th round of the 2019 MLB Draft. Vines had to wait through the pandemic year to finally play full-season ball in 2021, then shot through the lower levels of the system. On August 30, 2023, he made his major league debut in Colorado, going six innings with a 5/2 K/BB ratio in what was possibly his best major league outing so far.
What were the expectations?
In his age-26 season, Vines was expected to play a much bigger role for Atlanta in 2024. While no one hoped he would need to be a rotation mainstay, the idea that he could be a fine depth piece that hung out in Gwinnett and make spot starts as needed seemed just fine.
Though Vines never progressed with his well-below average fastball velocity, a combination of changeup, slider, and above-average command made him a workhorse minor league starter who could get major league lineups out in limited looks.
2024 Results
Vines only made four appearances for Atlanta this season. He cut down on his walk rate from his cup of coffee last year, but his strikeout rate tumbled even further, giving him an awful -0.2 fWAR across 13 2⁄3 innings with a 206/168/134 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-).
He also struggled in Triple-A, with an ERA, FIP, and xFIP all above 5.00 across 14 starts. Similar to his brief major league stint, his strikeout rate fell by more than his walk rate for Gwinnett, which was a real problem.
The Braves DFAed the floundering Vines on July 30, making room for the Trade Deadline acquisitions of Jorge Soler and Luke Jackson. Vines ended up clearing waivers and getting outrighted, and the Braves kicked him all the way back down to Double-A Mississippi. Vines was, unsurprisingly, pretty good for the M-Braves across three outings, but following his August 18th start he did not appear again and was placed on the 60-day Injured List on August 29th.
What went right?
The Braves, wisely, decided that a pitcher with a non-MLB quality fastball needed to focus more on his overall arsenal, and as a result Vines re-introduced his curveball to his pitch mix while also increasing his rate of slider usage. Both pitches gave somewhat promising results, with his curveball producing a 34.4 percent whiff rate and his slider eliciting a 33.1 percent whiff rate; neither were hit hard when batters did make contact. Vines was able to increase his spin on his pitches across the board, while cutting back on his walk rates and getting closer to the command he showed at the lower levels.
Vines has struggled with getting consistency in breaking pitches throughout his minor league career, at times showing better sliders and at other times better curveballs, but this was the first time that it seemed Vines unlocked both pitches at the same time with reasonable success.
Among his four outings, his 2024 major league debut in Houston was probably his memorable, and the only one of the four in which the Braves emerged victorious. Vines went 4 2⁄3 with a 4/3 K/BB ratio; it was his only outing of the year in which he didn’t give up a homer. After a messy first, Vines faced just one over the minimum until getting chased by a two-out single in the fifth that heralded the third time through the order. He had made a 2-1 lead stand up to that point, and the Braves pulled away in the ninth for a 6-1 win.
What went wrong?
Unfortunately, it was largely downhill from there.
Overall, Vines’ struggles in 2024 can be traced to a huge regression in his changeup, which is the one true major league out pitch in his arsenal. Hitters pretty much just sat on his fastball and torched him, including a 52.6 percent hard-hit rate and 92.5 average exit velocity against his fastball in Triple-A, including six homers. But the major league stats were even more concerning: he had one whiff via the fastball in four outings.
His changeup dropped 2.5 inches less and moved 1.1 inches less in his Triple-A starts compared to 2023, and hitters went from getting embarrassed to fighting them off and forcing Vines off of the pitch. His changeup usage dipped at Triple-A (likely a concerted effort to focus on other pitches), though at the major league level he did show increased usage in a small sample. In 2023 Vines produced a 44.1 percent whiff rate on his changeup at Triple-A, which bottomed down to just 31.0 percent this season. At the major league level hitters whiffed on it only 15.9 percent of the time and put up a .727 slugging percentage against it. Without his primary weapon dominating hitters, the problems with Vines’ lack of velocity were made much clearer, and he was unable to consistently get the weak contact and whiff rates necessary to succeed.
Vines only walked one batter in his last three outings of the season, but he also only got five strikeouts, and allowed four homers in the process. His start against the Rangers at home, which came after the Braves’ defeat of the Astros in his season debut bought him another rotation turn, was less ugly than his two relief appearances later in the year, but still showed his issues quite well: staked to a 3-0 lead, Vines gave up a leadoff homer to Evan Carter the second time through, and then later yielded a three-run shot to Andrew Knizner in the same inning. Both homers came on elevated changeups that were incredibly easy for batters to jump on as they floated towards the plate.
2025 Outlook
The biggest question mark now for Vines isn’t his stuff, but whether he will be healthy in 2025. Vines already missed most of 2023, not appearing until a June 30th rehab start in Rookie ball. To lose the end of 2024 and potentially parts of 2025 would be even more damaging to an already fringy player who turns 27 in April.
The Braves simply don’t disclose injuries for minor league players and there has been no confirmation as to Vines’ specific issue, which makes it hard to give a useful outlook for Vines in 2025 without knowing how hurt he is. If he does play, it seems unlikely he will get back to the major leagues with Atlanta, as he’s clearly behind multiple arms like Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Allan Winans, and Hurston Waldrep on the 40-man roster. Even if the Braves do decide to add someone to the 40-man to take spot starts, the rises of Lucas Braun and Drue Hackenberg could stand in Vines’ path to a return to the majors. A renaissance of the changeup is the only real shot he has at getting back to the major leagues, and even then it would be in a limited role, and probably for another organization. As it is, Vines is an injured, replacement level-y arm without the profile that teams usually target for their Quad-A shuttle types.
<img alt="Texas Rangers v Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/elKFcYhPVCvaMR9sbJHek98sbN0=/0x0:4200x2800/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73704672/2149728636.0.jpg">
Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
Darius Vines had his chance to grab a major league role in 2024, but played his way off of the 40-man roster instead Darius Vines turned in a not-altogether-horrible rookie campaign for the Atlanta Braves in 2023, but 2024 was a nightmare on every level. After being poised to join the shuttle between Gwinnett and Atlanta for the near future, he instead lost his 40-man roster spot and now finds his health in question.
How acquired
Darius Vines was twice drafted — once out of high school and once out of junior college — before the Braves took him in the 7th round of the 2019 MLB Draft. Vines had to wait through the pandemic year to finally play full-season ball in 2021, then shot through the lower levels of the system. On August 30, 2023, he made his major league debut in Colorado, going six innings with a 5/2 K/BB ratio in what was possibly his best major league outing so far.
What were the expectations?
In his age-26 season, Vines was expected to play a much bigger role for Atlanta in 2024. While no one hoped he would need to be a rotation mainstay, the idea that he could be a fine depth piece that hung out in Gwinnett and make spot starts as needed seemed just fine.
Though Vines never progressed with his well-below average fastball velocity, a combination of changeup, slider, and above-average command made him a workhorse minor league starter who could get major league lineups out in limited looks.
2024 Results
Vines only made four appearances for Atlanta this season. He cut down on his walk rate from his cup of coffee last year, but his strikeout rate tumbled even further, giving him an awful -0.2 fWAR across 13 2⁄3 innings with a 206/168/134 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-).
He also struggled in Triple-A, with an ERA, FIP, and xFIP all above 5.00 across 14 starts. Similar to his brief major league stint, his strikeout rate fell by more than his walk rate for Gwinnett, which was a real problem.
The Braves DFAed the floundering Vines on July 30, making room for the Trade Deadline acquisitions of Jorge Soler and Luke Jackson. Vines ended up clearing waivers and getting outrighted, and the Braves kicked him all the way back down to Double-A Mississippi. Vines was, unsurprisingly, pretty good for the M-Braves across three outings, but following his August 18th start he did not appear again and was placed on the 60-day Injured List on August 29th.
What went right?
The Braves, wisely, decided that a pitcher with a non-MLB quality fastball needed to focus more on his overall arsenal, and as a result Vines re-introduced his curveball to his pitch mix while also increasing his rate of slider usage. Both pitches gave somewhat promising results, with his curveball producing a 34.4 percent whiff rate and his slider eliciting a 33.1 percent whiff rate; neither were hit hard when batters did make contact. Vines was able to increase his spin on his pitches across the board, while cutting back on his walk rates and getting closer to the command he showed at the lower levels.
Vines has struggled with getting consistency in breaking pitches throughout his minor league career, at times showing better sliders and at other times better curveballs, but this was the first time that it seemed Vines unlocked both pitches at the same time with reasonable success.
Among his four outings, his 2024 major league debut in Houston was probably his memorable, and the only one of the four in which the Braves emerged victorious. Vines went 4 2⁄3 with a 4/3 K/BB ratio; it was his only outing of the year in which he didn’t give up a homer. After a messy first, Vines faced just one over the minimum until getting chased by a two-out single in the fifth that heralded the third time through the order. He had made a 2-1 lead stand up to that point, and the Braves pulled away in the ninth for a 6-1 win.
What went wrong?
Unfortunately, it was largely downhill from there.
Overall, Vines’ struggles in 2024 can be traced to a huge regression in his changeup, which is the one true major league out pitch in his arsenal. Hitters pretty much just sat on his fastball and torched him, including a 52.6 percent hard-hit rate and 92.5 average exit velocity against his fastball in Triple-A, including six homers. But the major league stats were even more concerning: he had one whiff via the fastball in four outings.
His changeup dropped 2.5 inches less and moved 1.1 inches less in his Triple-A starts compared to 2023, and hitters went from getting embarrassed to fighting them off and forcing Vines off of the pitch. His changeup usage dipped at Triple-A (likely a concerted effort to focus on other pitches), though at the major league level he did show increased usage in a small sample. In 2023 Vines produced a 44.1 percent whiff rate on his changeup at Triple-A, which bottomed down to just 31.0 percent this season. At the major league level hitters whiffed on it only 15.9 percent of the time and put up a .727 slugging percentage against it. Without his primary weapon dominating hitters, the problems with Vines’ lack of velocity were made much clearer, and he was unable to consistently get the weak contact and whiff rates necessary to succeed.
Vines only walked one batter in his last three outings of the season, but he also only got five strikeouts, and allowed four homers in the process. His start against the Rangers at home, which came after the Braves’ defeat of the Astros in his season debut bought him another rotation turn, was less ugly than his two relief appearances later in the year, but still showed his issues quite well: staked to a 3-0 lead, Vines gave up a leadoff homer to Evan Carter the second time through, and then later yielded a three-run shot to Andrew Knizner in the same inning. Both homers came on elevated changeups that were incredibly easy for batters to jump on as they floated towards the plate.
2025 Outlook
The biggest question mark now for Vines isn’t his stuff, but whether he will be healthy in 2025. Vines already missed most of 2023, not appearing until a June 30th rehab start in Rookie ball. To lose the end of 2024 and potentially parts of 2025 would be even more damaging to an already fringy player who turns 27 in April.
The Braves simply don’t disclose injuries for minor league players and there has been no confirmation as to Vines’ specific issue, which makes it hard to give a useful outlook for Vines in 2025 without knowing how hurt he is. If he does play, it seems unlikely he will get back to the major leagues with Atlanta, as he’s clearly behind multiple arms like Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Allan Winans, and Hurston Waldrep on the 40-man roster. Even if the Braves do decide to add someone to the 40-man to take spot starts, the rises of Lucas Braun and Drue Hackenberg could stand in Vines’ path to a return to the majors. A renaissance of the changeup is the only real shot he has at getting back to the major leagues, and even then it would be in a limited role, and probably for another organization. As it is, Vines is an injured, replacement level-y arm without the profile that teams usually target for their Quad-A shuttle types.
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