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Photo by Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Braves protected Domingo Gonzalez from the Rule 5 draft this week, but have a number of notable players still left exposed ahead of the November 19th deadline It is a bit more than a month until Major League Baseball’s winter meetings get underway, and with that will come the Rule 5 draft which is scheduled to take place on December 11th. The Rule 5 draft allows teams to select players in other organizations who are not on the 40-man roster, as long as said player was signed either five or more years ago in the case of a player signed at age 18 or younger (most prep draftees and international signings) or four or more years in the case of those signed at 19 or older. If a team selects a player they pay $100,000 for the rights to that player, and have to spend the next year on the selecting team’s 26-man roster.
The Atlanta Braves haven’t featured heavily in recent drafts, having no one selected from their organization since Gabriel Rodriguez in 2021 and passing on a chance to select anyone in every year under Alex Anthopoulos. The last Braves selection was relief pitcher Anyelo Gomez in 2017, who was subsequently returned to the Yankees in spring training of 2018.
In order to avoid having a player selected in the Rule 5 draft the deadline to add the player to the 40 man roster by November 19th. The Braves jumped the gun a bit and made the move that was expected of them, adding reliever Domingo Gonzalez to the 40 man roster on November 2nd. Gonzalez had a breakout campaign in Double- and Triple-A this past season, striking out a system-leading 38.8% of batters across 52 2⁄3 innings. Gonzalez, himself a Rule 5 selection in the minor league phase of the draft back in 2022, has steadily improved since moving to relief and focusing on a 4 seam fastball with elite strikeout rates over the past two seasons. Gonzalez utilizes a low release to create a flat angle of approach on his mid-90’s fastball, and along with a hard slider and improved control has turned himself from a cast-off starter into a player that likely features into the Braves plans in some way this season. Gonzalez still needs to improve his fastball command, but still was the one player I had circled this offseason as the one the Braves could and should protect.
Domingo Gonzalez slider pic.twitter.com/gWebDtlxzI— Gaurav (@gvedak) June 28, 2024
There are as of now a number of notable prospects who are going to be potentially exposed to the Rule 5 draft, though there is obviously still time for the Braves to add more guys to the 40 man roster if they see fit. However, looking at the rest of the list I think it is unlikely that anyone will get protected.
Among the prospects there is only one Rule 5 eligible starting pitcher with notoriety, that being former minor league Rule 5 pick Luis De Avila. De Avila may be the most likely of any of these guys to be selected, given he has two years of solid performances in Double-A and over his final eight starts this past season put up a 3.27 FIP. The problem for De Avila is that he is buried in this system with at least 14 starters under contract who would be ahead of him in the pecking order, and his lack of any swing-and-miss offerings makes it hard to project him beyond a back end starter. The Braves made adjustments to his mechanics this past season that improved his command significantly down the stretch and right now his fastball-changeup command does give him some potential as a soft-contact swing-man or depth starter, but it’s unlikely the Braves will see him as worth a valuable 40 man spot. However it could be possible that another team sees him as an immediate fit in the back of their rotation and decide to select him.
The best crop of actual potential impact Braves players comes from their relief prospects, though all have a similar issue with command that would make it hard for a team to hide them on the 26 man roster for a full season. Luis Vargas spent most of the past season as a starter, showing off an increase in velocity that had him sitting in the upper 90’s for most of a 12-strikeout performance on May 22nd. Vargas has always had a major league caliber slider, and this increase in velocity helped him clear the 100 strikeout mark this season. Unfortunately for Vargas he hasn’t pitched above High-A, and while a move to the bullpen could hasten his ascent through the system the Braves seem intent on him as a starter for now and he hasn’t shown off the command or third pitch necessary to succeed at a higher level. He’s probably the least likely of the four players I project as long-term relievers to be selected, though he also has the best command of the trio.
For much of the season Vargas had Jared Johnson around to close out games, and Johnson has been curiously slow-moving despite some dominant numbers at the lower levels. Johnson’s command is certainly inconsistent, but he posted a 2.60 ERA in High-A this season with a system-leading 19.6% swinging strike rate. Johnson can clear triple digits with his fastball and pairs that with an upper-80’s to low-90’s slider, and when he is on he is arguably the most dominant relief arm in the system. Johnson might be the player I would be most willing to take the risk on given how strong he has been in flashes and how tantalizing the underlying metrics on his slider are, but at 23 with as of yet no indication that his command will ever get close to average he may need another year in the system before he gets real attention. It could be a similar situation to Gonzalez last season, who showed the same sort of stuff but had too many walks to get past Double-A and was ultimately passed over in the Rule 5 draft despite being eligible. Johnson likely does not get selected this season, but with a similar Double-A breakout and improvement in command could easily be on a short list by this time next season.
Rolddy Munoz looked well on his way to a breakout season after two months, showcasing a triple digit fastball and hard slider that helped him produce a 41.9% strikeout rate and 2.10 FIP through the end of May. Unfortunately his time in Double-A was plagued by command issues throughout the middle months before he ultimately finished strong and placed himself back into the case for being a top 30 prospect. Munoz’s stuff elite, with a punchy slider and a hard fastball with mediocre movement, but his command is either the worst or second-worst. Unlike Johnson, who has above average athleticism and showcases stretches of slider command Munoz scatters his pitches even on his best days. He has the stuff to sit in the zone and serve up pitches while still throwing them past batters, but his movement is average to below average and so the velocity doesn’t quite play up. His command would make him a no-go if I were looking at Rule 5 options from the outside, but he also has the potential to be a dominant reliever if he can unlock even an ounce of command. A team who feels they have the mechanical answer might find the price of admission worth the risk, but right now burying Munoz would be tough. Again with all of these guys it could be similar to Gonzalez. where a year from now the Braves have made the right changes to make him a contender, though if that happens the Braves will also likely protect him.
Elison Joseph might have the worst command of the group, but he also has gone from a later age signee with hopeless command to a player who looks to be on the verge of a true breakout. Unlike Munoz and Johnson, whose size and high release make their fastballs less potent than their triple-digit velocities, Joseph is smaller with a lower arm angle and release point, and his upper-90’s heat is monstrous when he can place it in the top of the zone. He pairs it with an upper-80’s slider with elite spin that tortures hitters when he gets it even around the zone. It’s the highest ceiling of the crew, two true pitches with 70 ceilings, but he is volatile at best and hair-ripping to watch at worst. Still, his swinging strike rate comes in third in the system this season and he played at a higher level than did Johnson who ranked first, and across two levels he posted a 2.04 ERA and 2.78 FIP. Joseph’s 12.6% walk rate is bad, that cannot be disputed, but he has managed to cut it back each of the past two seasons while making progress in terms of pure stuff and underlying data. He is a monster waiting to be unlocked, though his lack of athleticism and inconsistent release does give plenty of concern as to whether the command will ever get to major league fringe quality. He isn’t ready for a 26 man roster spot at the moment, so I don’t see him being selected, but if a team is just crazy enough to take the risk I would understand it.
Welcome to Double-A, Elison Joseph! He closed out the combined shutout with Ian Mejia and Jorge Juan! pic.twitter.com/RGHqcY4z7g— Mississippi Braves (@mbraves) July 10, 2024
There are a few former or current top 30 prospects on the position player side of the coin that are Rule 5 eligible, but I would bet against there even being a chance of them getting selected. While a team like the Braves who rarely use the last man on their bench could easily hide one of these guys for a season, it would also be wasting a year of development that all would need. Unless a player can come in and contribute immediately on offense it isn’t worth selecting them, and the Braves aren’t going to just let one of those types of players be exposed to the draft anyways. Still, there are names worth knowing here.
Among catchers Tyler Tolve and Adam Zebrowski are similar-ish players, but both haven’t made enough contact to be given a look in the Rule 5 draft. Both are fringy defenders that are worth stashing for the Braves given their raw power and offensive ceilings, but the likelihood of either reaching a major league role is low. Between the two Tolve is a better defender and has shown flashes of good play, but neither have had upper level success and won’t factor into the Rule 5 draft.
The infield is where it gets a bit more interesting, as the Braves have two utility infielders that could both be major league quality bench players relatively quickly. Luke Waddell has improved plenty at shortstop this season, though his defense there is still fringy and his arm well-below average, and that lack of versatility makes it harder for a team to utilize him as a bench infielder. He hasn’t yet hit at Triple-A despite high contact rates as his power isn’t enough for him to threaten pitchers, and while he’s likely just going to be a Triple-A player unless he suddenly grows into strength. Cal Conley is the more interesting of the two, and a player I’ve pointed out on multiple occasions to be one of the most-improved players this season. Defensively he has gone from a player I didn’t think would stick on the dirt to one I think is a major league average shortstop, and paired with improved contact rates and swing decisions I see him as a potential utility shortstop at the major league level. The offensive numbers are not good and his power hasn’t shown up since A-ball, but it’s also important to remember the awful power environments he has played in over the past two seasons. If he can get back to making an impact on the ball without sacrificing too much contact he would be an interesting piece, and a team that thinks they have the fix for him might be willing to take a chance, but I really don’t see it happening this season.
The outfield crew for the Braves have one interesting player and not much else, but there are four notable names I picked out that will all not be selected. Stephen Paolini was a fifth round pick in 2019 that got a $600k signing bonus, but the hit tool never progresses to a point that he could be considered a real top prospect. Geraldo Quintero is on the other end of the spectrum. His hit tool is his carrying tool, as he has showed above average on base skill at every level, but he wasn’t a good enough defender to fit on the infield and he lacks the physicality necessary to hit for power at the rate expected for a corner outfielder. A solid player who is still young, but his lack of defensive ability makes it difficult to project him to a major league role. Then there is Cody Milligan, who is an elite defender in the outfield that can moonlight at second base, but whose bat has stalled out a bit at Double-A, Some of that is his size, as he just doesn’t have the power to succeed in those run environments, and some is his hit tool which flirts with average but hasn’t been consistent somewhat due to the number of injuries he’s dealt with. Milligan is a solid fourth or fifth outfielder type that could find his way into a major league role, but as mentioned that really isn’t something that is worth spending a Rule 5 pick on.
The biggest name on this list by far is Jesse Franklin, who of all of the players on this list is the one I could project to being a major league starter. Franklin has easy plus power, enough athleticism to play a fringe center field, and in the second half of 2023 turned in the best contact rates and approach of his career. Unfortunately Franklin hasn’t actually had a chance to play much. He lost all of 2020, then most of 2022 following Tommy John surgery, then missed all of 2024 following shoulder surgery. Franklin has played 226 games since 2019, and in that time he has shown the best power in the system but hasn’t hit enough. There is no way a team can take a chance on Franklin given his lack of experience and track record for hitting, though he has clearly the highest ceiling of the list of eligible players.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v. Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/00VQr7Vu_WAdP2H1rms2egyLiGQ=/0x0:4774x3183/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73702815/2180726028.0.jpg">
Photo by Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Braves protected Domingo Gonzalez from the Rule 5 draft this week, but have a number of notable players still left exposed ahead of the November 19th deadline It is a bit more than a month until Major League Baseball’s winter meetings get underway, and with that will come the Rule 5 draft which is scheduled to take place on December 11th. The Rule 5 draft allows teams to select players in other organizations who are not on the 40-man roster, as long as said player was signed either five or more years ago in the case of a player signed at age 18 or younger (most prep draftees and international signings) or four or more years in the case of those signed at 19 or older. If a team selects a player they pay $100,000 for the rights to that player, and have to spend the next year on the selecting team’s 26-man roster.
The Atlanta Braves haven’t featured heavily in recent drafts, having no one selected from their organization since Gabriel Rodriguez in 2021 and passing on a chance to select anyone in every year under Alex Anthopoulos. The last Braves selection was relief pitcher Anyelo Gomez in 2017, who was subsequently returned to the Yankees in spring training of 2018.
In order to avoid having a player selected in the Rule 5 draft the deadline to add the player to the 40 man roster by November 19th. The Braves jumped the gun a bit and made the move that was expected of them, adding reliever Domingo Gonzalez to the 40 man roster on November 2nd. Gonzalez had a breakout campaign in Double- and Triple-A this past season, striking out a system-leading 38.8% of batters across 52 2⁄3 innings. Gonzalez, himself a Rule 5 selection in the minor league phase of the draft back in 2022, has steadily improved since moving to relief and focusing on a 4 seam fastball with elite strikeout rates over the past two seasons. Gonzalez utilizes a low release to create a flat angle of approach on his mid-90’s fastball, and along with a hard slider and improved control has turned himself from a cast-off starter into a player that likely features into the Braves plans in some way this season. Gonzalez still needs to improve his fastball command, but still was the one player I had circled this offseason as the one the Braves could and should protect.
Domingo Gonzalez slider pic.twitter.com/gWebDtlxzI— Gaurav (@gvedak) June 28, 2024
There are as of now a number of notable prospects who are going to be potentially exposed to the Rule 5 draft, though there is obviously still time for the Braves to add more guys to the 40 man roster if they see fit. However, looking at the rest of the list I think it is unlikely that anyone will get protected.
Among the prospects there is only one Rule 5 eligible starting pitcher with notoriety, that being former minor league Rule 5 pick Luis De Avila. De Avila may be the most likely of any of these guys to be selected, given he has two years of solid performances in Double-A and over his final eight starts this past season put up a 3.27 FIP. The problem for De Avila is that he is buried in this system with at least 14 starters under contract who would be ahead of him in the pecking order, and his lack of any swing-and-miss offerings makes it hard to project him beyond a back end starter. The Braves made adjustments to his mechanics this past season that improved his command significantly down the stretch and right now his fastball-changeup command does give him some potential as a soft-contact swing-man or depth starter, but it’s unlikely the Braves will see him as worth a valuable 40 man spot. However it could be possible that another team sees him as an immediate fit in the back of their rotation and decide to select him.
The best crop of actual potential impact Braves players comes from their relief prospects, though all have a similar issue with command that would make it hard for a team to hide them on the 26 man roster for a full season. Luis Vargas spent most of the past season as a starter, showing off an increase in velocity that had him sitting in the upper 90’s for most of a 12-strikeout performance on May 22nd. Vargas has always had a major league caliber slider, and this increase in velocity helped him clear the 100 strikeout mark this season. Unfortunately for Vargas he hasn’t pitched above High-A, and while a move to the bullpen could hasten his ascent through the system the Braves seem intent on him as a starter for now and he hasn’t shown off the command or third pitch necessary to succeed at a higher level. He’s probably the least likely of the four players I project as long-term relievers to be selected, though he also has the best command of the trio.
For much of the season Vargas had Jared Johnson around to close out games, and Johnson has been curiously slow-moving despite some dominant numbers at the lower levels. Johnson’s command is certainly inconsistent, but he posted a 2.60 ERA in High-A this season with a system-leading 19.6% swinging strike rate. Johnson can clear triple digits with his fastball and pairs that with an upper-80’s to low-90’s slider, and when he is on he is arguably the most dominant relief arm in the system. Johnson might be the player I would be most willing to take the risk on given how strong he has been in flashes and how tantalizing the underlying metrics on his slider are, but at 23 with as of yet no indication that his command will ever get close to average he may need another year in the system before he gets real attention. It could be a similar situation to Gonzalez last season, who showed the same sort of stuff but had too many walks to get past Double-A and was ultimately passed over in the Rule 5 draft despite being eligible. Johnson likely does not get selected this season, but with a similar Double-A breakout and improvement in command could easily be on a short list by this time next season.
Rolddy Munoz looked well on his way to a breakout season after two months, showcasing a triple digit fastball and hard slider that helped him produce a 41.9% strikeout rate and 2.10 FIP through the end of May. Unfortunately his time in Double-A was plagued by command issues throughout the middle months before he ultimately finished strong and placed himself back into the case for being a top 30 prospect. Munoz’s stuff elite, with a punchy slider and a hard fastball with mediocre movement, but his command is either the worst or second-worst. Unlike Johnson, who has above average athleticism and showcases stretches of slider command Munoz scatters his pitches even on his best days. He has the stuff to sit in the zone and serve up pitches while still throwing them past batters, but his movement is average to below average and so the velocity doesn’t quite play up. His command would make him a no-go if I were looking at Rule 5 options from the outside, but he also has the potential to be a dominant reliever if he can unlock even an ounce of command. A team who feels they have the mechanical answer might find the price of admission worth the risk, but right now burying Munoz would be tough. Again with all of these guys it could be similar to Gonzalez. where a year from now the Braves have made the right changes to make him a contender, though if that happens the Braves will also likely protect him.
Elison Joseph might have the worst command of the group, but he also has gone from a later age signee with hopeless command to a player who looks to be on the verge of a true breakout. Unlike Munoz and Johnson, whose size and high release make their fastballs less potent than their triple-digit velocities, Joseph is smaller with a lower arm angle and release point, and his upper-90’s heat is monstrous when he can place it in the top of the zone. He pairs it with an upper-80’s slider with elite spin that tortures hitters when he gets it even around the zone. It’s the highest ceiling of the crew, two true pitches with 70 ceilings, but he is volatile at best and hair-ripping to watch at worst. Still, his swinging strike rate comes in third in the system this season and he played at a higher level than did Johnson who ranked first, and across two levels he posted a 2.04 ERA and 2.78 FIP. Joseph’s 12.6% walk rate is bad, that cannot be disputed, but he has managed to cut it back each of the past two seasons while making progress in terms of pure stuff and underlying data. He is a monster waiting to be unlocked, though his lack of athleticism and inconsistent release does give plenty of concern as to whether the command will ever get to major league fringe quality. He isn’t ready for a 26 man roster spot at the moment, so I don’t see him being selected, but if a team is just crazy enough to take the risk I would understand it.
Welcome to Double-A, Elison Joseph! He closed out the combined shutout with Ian Mejia and Jorge Juan! pic.twitter.com/RGHqcY4z7g— Mississippi Braves (@mbraves) July 10, 2024
There are a few former or current top 30 prospects on the position player side of the coin that are Rule 5 eligible, but I would bet against there even being a chance of them getting selected. While a team like the Braves who rarely use the last man on their bench could easily hide one of these guys for a season, it would also be wasting a year of development that all would need. Unless a player can come in and contribute immediately on offense it isn’t worth selecting them, and the Braves aren’t going to just let one of those types of players be exposed to the draft anyways. Still, there are names worth knowing here.
Among catchers Tyler Tolve and Adam Zebrowski are similar-ish players, but both haven’t made enough contact to be given a look in the Rule 5 draft. Both are fringy defenders that are worth stashing for the Braves given their raw power and offensive ceilings, but the likelihood of either reaching a major league role is low. Between the two Tolve is a better defender and has shown flashes of good play, but neither have had upper level success and won’t factor into the Rule 5 draft.
The infield is where it gets a bit more interesting, as the Braves have two utility infielders that could both be major league quality bench players relatively quickly. Luke Waddell has improved plenty at shortstop this season, though his defense there is still fringy and his arm well-below average, and that lack of versatility makes it harder for a team to utilize him as a bench infielder. He hasn’t yet hit at Triple-A despite high contact rates as his power isn’t enough for him to threaten pitchers, and while he’s likely just going to be a Triple-A player unless he suddenly grows into strength. Cal Conley is the more interesting of the two, and a player I’ve pointed out on multiple occasions to be one of the most-improved players this season. Defensively he has gone from a player I didn’t think would stick on the dirt to one I think is a major league average shortstop, and paired with improved contact rates and swing decisions I see him as a potential utility shortstop at the major league level. The offensive numbers are not good and his power hasn’t shown up since A-ball, but it’s also important to remember the awful power environments he has played in over the past two seasons. If he can get back to making an impact on the ball without sacrificing too much contact he would be an interesting piece, and a team that thinks they have the fix for him might be willing to take a chance, but I really don’t see it happening this season.
The outfield crew for the Braves have one interesting player and not much else, but there are four notable names I picked out that will all not be selected. Stephen Paolini was a fifth round pick in 2019 that got a $600k signing bonus, but the hit tool never progresses to a point that he could be considered a real top prospect. Geraldo Quintero is on the other end of the spectrum. His hit tool is his carrying tool, as he has showed above average on base skill at every level, but he wasn’t a good enough defender to fit on the infield and he lacks the physicality necessary to hit for power at the rate expected for a corner outfielder. A solid player who is still young, but his lack of defensive ability makes it difficult to project him to a major league role. Then there is Cody Milligan, who is an elite defender in the outfield that can moonlight at second base, but whose bat has stalled out a bit at Double-A, Some of that is his size, as he just doesn’t have the power to succeed in those run environments, and some is his hit tool which flirts with average but hasn’t been consistent somewhat due to the number of injuries he’s dealt with. Milligan is a solid fourth or fifth outfielder type that could find his way into a major league role, but as mentioned that really isn’t something that is worth spending a Rule 5 pick on.
The biggest name on this list by far is Jesse Franklin, who of all of the players on this list is the one I could project to being a major league starter. Franklin has easy plus power, enough athleticism to play a fringe center field, and in the second half of 2023 turned in the best contact rates and approach of his career. Unfortunately Franklin hasn’t actually had a chance to play much. He lost all of 2020, then most of 2022 following Tommy John surgery, then missed all of 2024 following shoulder surgery. Franklin has played 226 games since 2019, and in that time he has shown the best power in the system but hasn’t hit enough. There is no way a team can take a chance on Franklin given his lack of experience and track record for hitting, though he has clearly the highest ceiling of the list of eligible players.
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