<img alt="Wild Card Series - Atlanta Braves v. San Diego Padres - Game One" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ReZ2aIfbP33f_A_HBX5GoL38eLc=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73677678/2175344978.0.jpg">
Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Earlier this week, we previewed a pretty weak market for shortstops. Today, we’ll take a look at the market for another position for Alex Anthopoulos to address - starting pitchers. (For a look at my preview for the Shortstop market for the Atlanta Braves this offseason, click here)
Charlie Morton and Max Fried, inarguably the top two starters from the 2021 World Series team, are both free agents. Morton is expected by many to retire, while Fried is set to land himself a huge, well-deserved payday.
Before any moves are made, that leaves the Braves with four big-league caliber arms in the rotation to start 2025; likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale, Reynaldo López fresh off a 2.00 ERA, rookie sensation Spencer Schwellenbach, and Grant “Kenny Powers” Holmes. Spencer Strider, Atlanta’s Opening Day starter in 2024, is expected to return from his elbow injury sometime in the first half – potentially as early as mid-late April, though his timeline isn’t fully defined yet. Beyond that, they have Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, Hurston Waldrep, and AJ Smith-Shawver as their top depth arms.
The theoretical top five of Sale, Strider, López, Schwelly, and Holmes is already an extremely strong group, but each comes with question marks around workload capacity. Sale just pitched more innings in 2024 than he had in the previous three seasons combined. Strider is coming back from a major injury that has sidelined him since early April. López dealt with some minor injuries in his first full season as a full-time starting pitcher since 2019. Schwellenbach soared way past his previous career high in innings-pitched, and Holmes was used as a swingman in his debut season while surpassing 100 IP (between AAA and MLB) for the first time since 2017.
Because of all these concerns, and because Atlanta’s bullpen is stocked full of expensive, experienced veterans, I expect the Braves to go with a 6-man rotation, especially when Strider re-enters the picture. There hasn’t been any reporting that I’ve seen that confirms this, but in my mind at least, it just makes too much sense. Even if they stick with a 5 man rotation, though, the Braves will almost certainly want to add at least one starting pitcher this offseason to push Holmes into that 6th starter / swingman role.
Overview of the Market
Unlike shortstop, there are a plethora of options for upgrading the rotation this winter. There are ace-tier free agents and ace-tier trade candidates if they opt to make a splash, and there are plentiful mid-rotation starters who would doubtless make the club better.
Also unlike shortstop, however, nearly every team in the league will be investing in the starting pitcher market in some form or fashion. “You can never have enough pitching,” or so they say. Competition for netting a top arm will be stiff.
Now, let’s get into the candidates for the Braves rotation.
Tier One - The Aces
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
We’ll begin with the elephant in the room. Max Fried. World Series Game 6 winner, is 3rd among Braves SP in the integration era in ERA – behind only Maddux and Spahn – and 4th among Braves SP in FIP (since 1947, min. 550 IP). He had a 3.25 ERA and 3.33 FIP this season, and both were somehow the highest he had posted in the last 5 years. His fastball velocity remained at normal Max Fried levels, and he threw more than 165 innings for the 4th time in the last 5 full seasons.
Many have speculated that Fried will be chasing Aaron Nola money, and I think that’s a good benchmark for him to set. 7 years, $172M is the deal Nola got, and the Braves were reportedly very competitive in the bidding for Nola. When all is said and done, I think Fried’s guarantee will be a bit smaller than Nola’s – either a smaller AAV over 7 years or a slightly larger AAV over 5-6 years – because Nola’s health record is impossibly pristine, and Fried has had some arm troubles over the past couple of seasons. Most have already counted the Braves out of the Fried sweepstakes, but I don’t see it that way. AA knows that Fried’s consistent greatness is tough to find straight seasons of an ERA under 3.30 and a FIP under 3.35 is hard to find, and Fried has stated repeatedly how much he loves playing in Atlanta. If they were willing to pay big money to Aaron Nola last offseason, they could be willing to do the same for one of the greatest pitchers in franchise history.
Burnes, a Scott Boras client, will be expected to receive the biggest contract of any SP this winter, but it almost certainly won’t come from the Braves. Snell might have the highest AAV of any free agent SP – he’s extremely special when he’s on, but given the upside in the rest of their rotation, I don’t see the Braves going all-in on a high-strikeout, high-walk arm who can struggle to pitch deep into games.
At 34 years old, Sonny Gray showed a marked improvement in his ability to miss bats while still avoiding walks. The home run ball stung him a bit, but the jump in K% will be very attractive to a number of teams. The Cardinals have already stated that they plan to shed some payroll this winter, so it’s very likely that Gray will be on the move. He’s owed $25M in 2025 and $35M in 2026, which could appeal to AA as it likely won’t require multiple top prospects to land him.
A trade for Crochet, however, would definitely mean losing multiple top prospects. Crochet added a cutter to his repertoire last offseason, and it resulted in a stunning breakout season. He led all pitchers with at least 100 IP in K%, K-BB%, xFIP, and SIERA. He finished top 5 in FIP and trailed only Snell in SwStr% (% of pitches thrown that result in a whiff). The only negative was a controversial moment in his season – around the trade deadline, he claimed that if he was traded to a contending team, he wouldn’t pitch in the postseason unless he had an extension in place. Regardless of how some fans may have perceived this, I wouldn’t be surprised if AA actually saw this as a green flag. Crochet’s 2024 is similar to Strider’s 2022 – top of the league in K% and basically every peripheral metric there is – and after AA witnessed Strider’s 2022, he locked him into a 6+ year extension right away. One more note in support of a Crochet trade + extension – he grew up in Mississippi and went to the University of Tennessee.
For what it’s worth, I think it’s more likely that the Braves land one of Gray or Crochet via trade than it is that they sign one of Fried, Burnes, or Snell to a market-value contract.
Tier Two - Mid-Rotation Arms with Upside
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Kikuchi is the type of free agent arm that the Braves should be very interested in. After Kikuchi was traded to Houston at the deadline this year, they meaningfully altered his pitch mix, and he pitched like an ace down the stretch. A small sample of top performance isn’t usually a reason to bet on someone, but when there is such a clear change in approach that produces results, there may be an opportunity to land a top-of-the-rotation arm for a mid-rotation price. On top of that, he’s been very durable since coming to MLB in 2019, and he shouldn’t require a long-term deal as he enters his age 34 season.
Bieber has had a terrific career, and he’s one of the younger free agent pitchers in this class. Like Strider, he underwent elbow surgery after just two starts in 2024. It wouldn’t be ideal to have both Strider and Bieber shelved to start the season, but if Anthopoulos sees a bargain, he may decide to jump on it anyways.
After four straight seasons with an xERA around 5.00, Flaherty bounced back in a big way in 2024. Everything about the profile looks sustainable – he finished top 5 in K%, K-BB%, and CSW% (% of pitches that were called strikes or whiffs) while also rating very well in FIP and xERA. But his velocity drop and coinciding struggles this October could give some teams pause.
Following a dominant four year run, Kevin Gausman had a down year in 2024, with concerning dips in velocity, SwStr%, and K%. He was sidelined in spring training with a shoulder injury, and it’s possible that the injury stuck with him all year, or perhaps the delayed ramp may have thrown off his mechanics. Of course, it’s also possible that he’s starting to show his age, or that the shoulder injury will continue to impede his velocity. But still, he surpassed 170 IP for the fourth year in a row and posted a still-solid 3.83 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and 2.9 fWAR in 2024. Buying low is often AA’s style, and with two remaining years at $23M per year, he might see it as a good addition to the team even if he is more of a Morton-esque innings-eater instead of an ace.
Tier Three - Back-of-Rotation Arms
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
There are too many names here to spend time on each one, but I’ll mention a few that intrigue me at their potential cost.
Let’s start with Charlie Morton. If he wants to continue pitching at 41 years old, the Braves will almost certainly let him, and that might mean the end of the discussion for starting pitchers. It wouldn’t be the worst thing. He’s a reliable #5, typically good for 30+ starts with an ERA solidly below 4.50. And if you listen to any of the players or coaches, you’ll quickly learn that he’s one of the most impactful personalities in the Braves clubhouse.
Nick Pivetta has never had an ERA under 4.00, but there is some intrigue in his profile. HRs are a major issue, but he does consistently post a strong K-BB%. You might remember that just last offseason, the Braves traded for another Boston SP with a strong K-BB% and some HR issues, and he did all right for himself in Atlanta.
Nick Martinez has quietly performed at a high level while filling multiple different roles since returning to MLB three years ago after spending several years in Japan.
Scherzer and Verlander, like Morton, have declined over the past couple of seasons and could be ready to retire. If healthy, it’s possible that the Braves might still see a path for one of them to pitch at a relatively high level – particularly Scherzer, who retained his usual high-level CSW% and SwStr% but saw his K% dip in his 9 starts in 2024. If he can maintain that CSW% and SwStr% in 2025, I’d expect the K% to spike back up closer to 30%.
On the trade market, Chris Bassitt could make some sense to replace Morton as an older veteran who consistently makes 30+ starts with decent back-of-rotation numbers. While Jeffrey Springs has dealt with some major injuries over the past two years, he also has been a quietly elite pitcher over the past three seasons, and the cost-conscious Rays will see his salary double this offseason.
Tier Four - Decent but Undependable, or Just Plain Bad
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
With such a deep market for pitchers, several of these guys may have to take a minor league deal to find themselves in baseball at all. I wouldn’t expect any of these pitchers to appeal to Anthopoulos, but let’s touch on a few that might pass as a sort of backup plan for the backup plan’s backup plan.
There could be a touch of intrigue with fan favorite Michael Soroka, who spent most of the season struggling in the White Sox bullpen but finished on a high note by striking out more than 40% of the batters he faced over his final 24.1 IP. Spencer Turnbull had a nice year for Philly, but he’s only surpassed 60 IP once in his career (and zero times since 2019). Joe Ross returned to a big league mound in 2024 for the first time since 2021, and he pitched similarly to 2024 Luis Severino in his 74 IP while splitting time between the bullpen and rotation. Mikolas is probably the most reliable pitcher in any of the tiers when it comes to making 30+ starts, but he’s been terrible over the past two years, and the Cardinals would certainly love to be rid of his $17.7M salary in 2025.
Closing Thoughts
It will be interesting to see how Anthopoulos approaches the SP vacancy. There are two competing ideologies here – do you get a reliable innings-eater since the rest of the rotation has durability concerns? Or do you get another high-ceiling arm to give you another option in October so that you’re not stuck starting Charlie Morton or AJ Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder in a playoff game if one of the existing top four arms gets hurt?
Ideally, you find durability and star performance all in one package. To that end, and considering the expected price points, my personal top five options are Crochet, Fried, Gray, Gausman, and Kikuchi. Each of those guys made 28+ starts in 2024, and each has shown the ability to pitch like a top-of-the-rotation arm.
Kikuchi seems unlikely to me given that he’s a Scott Boras client, and Asian-born players have not often come to Atlanta in free agency. Crochet is likely to be dealt this winter, but nearly every contending team should be in on him, and many other teams will be able to beat any prospect package Atlanta can put together. Gray’s $35M salary in 2026 could prove prohibitive, but it’s also possible that the Cardinals could take on Jorge Soler’s salary as part of the deal in order to offset salary and net a better prospect return. Trading Gausman was perhaps the biggest mistake of AA’s tenure as Braves GM, and while I’m sure he would love to bring him back to Atlanta as some form of redemption, it’s unclear if Toronto will be buyers or sellers entering their final season with both Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette under contract.
The easiest path, and perhaps the smartest, is to bite the bullet and pay Max Fried. The Braves have locked in many of their stars to below-market extensions, and it’s worked brilliantly for them so far, but maybe this is the year that Anthopoulos finally signs a player to a long-term deal that doesn’t immediately feel like an obvious steal for the team. How sweet it would be for that contract to go to someone who is already beloved by his teammates and fanbase.
<img alt="Wild Card Series - Atlanta Braves v. San Diego Padres - Game One" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ReZ2aIfbP33f_A_HBX5GoL38eLc=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73677678/2175344978.0.jpg">
Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Earlier this week, we previewed a pretty weak market for shortstops. Today, we’ll take a look at the market for another position for Alex Anthopoulos to address - starting pitchers. (For a look at my preview for the Shortstop market for the Atlanta Braves this offseason, click here)
Charlie Morton and Max Fried, inarguably the top two starters from the 2021 World Series team, are both free agents. Morton is expected by many to retire, while Fried is set to land himself a huge, well-deserved payday.
Before any moves are made, that leaves the Braves with four big-league caliber arms in the rotation to start 2025; likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale, Reynaldo López fresh off a 2.00 ERA, rookie sensation Spencer Schwellenbach, and Grant “Kenny Powers” Holmes. Spencer Strider, Atlanta’s Opening Day starter in 2024, is expected to return from his elbow injury sometime in the first half – potentially as early as mid-late April, though his timeline isn’t fully defined yet. Beyond that, they have Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, Hurston Waldrep, and AJ Smith-Shawver as their top depth arms.
The theoretical top five of Sale, Strider, López, Schwelly, and Holmes is already an extremely strong group, but each comes with question marks around workload capacity. Sale just pitched more innings in 2024 than he had in the previous three seasons combined. Strider is coming back from a major injury that has sidelined him since early April. López dealt with some minor injuries in his first full season as a full-time starting pitcher since 2019. Schwellenbach soared way past his previous career high in innings-pitched, and Holmes was used as a swingman in his debut season while surpassing 100 IP (between AAA and MLB) for the first time since 2017.
Because of all these concerns, and because Atlanta’s bullpen is stocked full of expensive, experienced veterans, I expect the Braves to go with a 6-man rotation, especially when Strider re-enters the picture. There hasn’t been any reporting that I’ve seen that confirms this, but in my mind at least, it just makes too much sense. Even if they stick with a 5 man rotation, though, the Braves will almost certainly want to add at least one starting pitcher this offseason to push Holmes into that 6th starter / swingman role.
Overview of the Market
Unlike shortstop, there are a plethora of options for upgrading the rotation this winter. There are ace-tier free agents and ace-tier trade candidates if they opt to make a splash, and there are plentiful mid-rotation starters who would doubtless make the club better.
Also unlike shortstop, however, nearly every team in the league will be investing in the starting pitcher market in some form or fashion. “You can never have enough pitching,” or so they say. Competition for netting a top arm will be stiff.
Now, let’s get into the candidates for the Braves rotation.
Tier One - The Aces
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
We’ll begin with the elephant in the room. Max Fried. World Series Game 6 winner, is 3rd among Braves SP in the integration era in ERA – behind only Maddux and Spahn – and 4th among Braves SP in FIP (since 1947, min. 550 IP). He had a 3.25 ERA and 3.33 FIP this season, and both were somehow the highest he had posted in the last 5 years. His fastball velocity remained at normal Max Fried levels, and he threw more than 165 innings for the 4th time in the last 5 full seasons.
Many have speculated that Fried will be chasing Aaron Nola money, and I think that’s a good benchmark for him to set. 7 years, $172M is the deal Nola got, and the Braves were reportedly very competitive in the bidding for Nola. When all is said and done, I think Fried’s guarantee will be a bit smaller than Nola’s – either a smaller AAV over 7 years or a slightly larger AAV over 5-6 years – because Nola’s health record is impossibly pristine, and Fried has had some arm troubles over the past couple of seasons. Most have already counted the Braves out of the Fried sweepstakes, but I don’t see it that way. AA knows that Fried’s consistent greatness is tough to find straight seasons of an ERA under 3.30 and a FIP under 3.35 is hard to find, and Fried has stated repeatedly how much he loves playing in Atlanta. If they were willing to pay big money to Aaron Nola last offseason, they could be willing to do the same for one of the greatest pitchers in franchise history.
Burnes, a Scott Boras client, will be expected to receive the biggest contract of any SP this winter, but it almost certainly won’t come from the Braves. Snell might have the highest AAV of any free agent SP – he’s extremely special when he’s on, but given the upside in the rest of their rotation, I don’t see the Braves going all-in on a high-strikeout, high-walk arm who can struggle to pitch deep into games.
At 34 years old, Sonny Gray showed a marked improvement in his ability to miss bats while still avoiding walks. The home run ball stung him a bit, but the jump in K% will be very attractive to a number of teams. The Cardinals have already stated that they plan to shed some payroll this winter, so it’s very likely that Gray will be on the move. He’s owed $25M in 2025 and $35M in 2026, which could appeal to AA as it likely won’t require multiple top prospects to land him.
A trade for Crochet, however, would definitely mean losing multiple top prospects. Crochet added a cutter to his repertoire last offseason, and it resulted in a stunning breakout season. He led all pitchers with at least 100 IP in K%, K-BB%, xFIP, and SIERA. He finished top 5 in FIP and trailed only Snell in SwStr% (% of pitches thrown that result in a whiff). The only negative was a controversial moment in his season – around the trade deadline, he claimed that if he was traded to a contending team, he wouldn’t pitch in the postseason unless he had an extension in place. Regardless of how some fans may have perceived this, I wouldn’t be surprised if AA actually saw this as a green flag. Crochet’s 2024 is similar to Strider’s 2022 – top of the league in K% and basically every peripheral metric there is – and after AA witnessed Strider’s 2022, he locked him into a 6+ year extension right away. One more note in support of a Crochet trade + extension – he grew up in Mississippi and went to the University of Tennessee.
For what it’s worth, I think it’s more likely that the Braves land one of Gray or Crochet via trade than it is that they sign one of Fried, Burnes, or Snell to a market-value contract.
Tier Two - Mid-Rotation Arms with Upside
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Kikuchi is the type of free agent arm that the Braves should be very interested in. After Kikuchi was traded to Houston at the deadline this year, they meaningfully altered his pitch mix, and he pitched like an ace down the stretch. A small sample of top performance isn’t usually a reason to bet on someone, but when there is such a clear change in approach that produces results, there may be an opportunity to land a top-of-the-rotation arm for a mid-rotation price. On top of that, he’s been very durable since coming to MLB in 2019, and he shouldn’t require a long-term deal as he enters his age 34 season.
Bieber has had a terrific career, and he’s one of the younger free agent pitchers in this class. Like Strider, he underwent elbow surgery after just two starts in 2024. It wouldn’t be ideal to have both Strider and Bieber shelved to start the season, but if Anthopoulos sees a bargain, he may decide to jump on it anyways.
After four straight seasons with an xERA around 5.00, Flaherty bounced back in a big way in 2024. Everything about the profile looks sustainable – he finished top 5 in K%, K-BB%, and CSW% (% of pitches that were called strikes or whiffs) while also rating very well in FIP and xERA. But his velocity drop and coinciding struggles this October could give some teams pause.
Following a dominant four year run, Kevin Gausman had a down year in 2024, with concerning dips in velocity, SwStr%, and K%. He was sidelined in spring training with a shoulder injury, and it’s possible that the injury stuck with him all year, or perhaps the delayed ramp may have thrown off his mechanics. Of course, it’s also possible that he’s starting to show his age, or that the shoulder injury will continue to impede his velocity. But still, he surpassed 170 IP for the fourth year in a row and posted a still-solid 3.83 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and 2.9 fWAR in 2024. Buying low is often AA’s style, and with two remaining years at $23M per year, he might see it as a good addition to the team even if he is more of a Morton-esque innings-eater instead of an ace.
Tier Three - Back-of-Rotation Arms
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
There are too many names here to spend time on each one, but I’ll mention a few that intrigue me at their potential cost.
Let’s start with Charlie Morton. If he wants to continue pitching at 41 years old, the Braves will almost certainly let him, and that might mean the end of the discussion for starting pitchers. It wouldn’t be the worst thing. He’s a reliable #5, typically good for 30+ starts with an ERA solidly below 4.50. And if you listen to any of the players or coaches, you’ll quickly learn that he’s one of the most impactful personalities in the Braves clubhouse.
Nick Pivetta has never had an ERA under 4.00, but there is some intrigue in his profile. HRs are a major issue, but he does consistently post a strong K-BB%. You might remember that just last offseason, the Braves traded for another Boston SP with a strong K-BB% and some HR issues, and he did all right for himself in Atlanta.
Nick Martinez has quietly performed at a high level while filling multiple different roles since returning to MLB three years ago after spending several years in Japan.
Scherzer and Verlander, like Morton, have declined over the past couple of seasons and could be ready to retire. If healthy, it’s possible that the Braves might still see a path for one of them to pitch at a relatively high level – particularly Scherzer, who retained his usual high-level CSW% and SwStr% but saw his K% dip in his 9 starts in 2024. If he can maintain that CSW% and SwStr% in 2025, I’d expect the K% to spike back up closer to 30%.
On the trade market, Chris Bassitt could make some sense to replace Morton as an older veteran who consistently makes 30+ starts with decent back-of-rotation numbers. While Jeffrey Springs has dealt with some major injuries over the past two years, he also has been a quietly elite pitcher over the past three seasons, and the cost-conscious Rays will see his salary double this offseason.
Tier Four - Decent but Undependable, or Just Plain Bad
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
With such a deep market for pitchers, several of these guys may have to take a minor league deal to find themselves in baseball at all. I wouldn’t expect any of these pitchers to appeal to Anthopoulos, but let’s touch on a few that might pass as a sort of backup plan for the backup plan’s backup plan.
There could be a touch of intrigue with fan favorite Michael Soroka, who spent most of the season struggling in the White Sox bullpen but finished on a high note by striking out more than 40% of the batters he faced over his final 24.1 IP. Spencer Turnbull had a nice year for Philly, but he’s only surpassed 60 IP once in his career (and zero times since 2019). Joe Ross returned to a big league mound in 2024 for the first time since 2021, and he pitched similarly to 2024 Luis Severino in his 74 IP while splitting time between the bullpen and rotation. Mikolas is probably the most reliable pitcher in any of the tiers when it comes to making 30+ starts, but he’s been terrible over the past two years, and the Cardinals would certainly love to be rid of his $17.7M salary in 2025.
Closing Thoughts
It will be interesting to see how Anthopoulos approaches the SP vacancy. There are two competing ideologies here – do you get a reliable innings-eater since the rest of the rotation has durability concerns? Or do you get another high-ceiling arm to give you another option in October so that you’re not stuck starting Charlie Morton or AJ Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder in a playoff game if one of the existing top four arms gets hurt?
Ideally, you find durability and star performance all in one package. To that end, and considering the expected price points, my personal top five options are Crochet, Fried, Gray, Gausman, and Kikuchi. Each of those guys made 28+ starts in 2024, and each has shown the ability to pitch like a top-of-the-rotation arm.
Kikuchi seems unlikely to me given that he’s a Scott Boras client, and Asian-born players have not often come to Atlanta in free agency. Crochet is likely to be dealt this winter, but nearly every contending team should be in on him, and many other teams will be able to beat any prospect package Atlanta can put together. Gray’s $35M salary in 2026 could prove prohibitive, but it’s also possible that the Cardinals could take on Jorge Soler’s salary as part of the deal in order to offset salary and net a better prospect return. Trading Gausman was perhaps the biggest mistake of AA’s tenure as Braves GM, and while I’m sure he would love to bring him back to Atlanta as some form of redemption, it’s unclear if Toronto will be buyers or sellers entering their final season with both Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette under contract.
The easiest path, and perhaps the smartest, is to bite the bullet and pay Max Fried. The Braves have locked in many of their stars to below-market extensions, and it’s worked brilliantly for them so far, but maybe this is the year that Anthopoulos finally signs a player to a long-term deal that doesn’t immediately feel like an obvious steal for the team. How sweet it would be for that contract to go to someone who is already beloved by his teammates and fanbase.
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