<img alt="MLB: Game Two-New York Mets at Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/f7bd3ulFsRYaFfW7Rp1thijfcrE=/0x0:5232x3488/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73623886/usa_today_24369182.0.jpg">
Brett Davis-Imagn Images
How the Braves handle the Game 1 starter is the real wild card in this discussion I’m not sure I expected the Atlanta Braves to be here. This season has been filled with injuries and rainouts and interesting pitching strategy. It even featured some pestilence, but enough about the Phillies. Winning 89 games and gaining a playoff berth with this group of players is probably the most impressive accomplishment in the last 20 years, in my opinion. This team was constantly injuring one foot while repeatedly shooting the other all season.
The Braves somehow survived the regular season and will land in San Diego to face the Padres in a 3-game series. The first question becomes who starts Game one after playing four pressure-filled games in three days.
Pitcher Locks (8): Max Fried, Reynaldo Lopez, Aaron Bummer, Daysbel Hernandez, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, Raisel Iglesias
This eight appears to be locked in. Much of the talk centers around the Game 1 starter, but Fried and Lopez appear to be lined up for Game 2 and a possible 3. The usual suspects in the bullpen are here. I’ll include Pierce Johnson even after a fall-off in production since August, because he was still put in position to save a game yesterday.
Pitcher Question Marks (9): Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes, Charlie Morton, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, John Brebbia, Jesse Chavez, Luke Jackson
Here are six starting pitcher options and three in the bullpen. Ian Anderson hasn’t pitched for Atlanta since August 13th of 2022, but after working through Tommy John surgery in April 2023 was a starting pitcher in AAA Gwinnett. He has a 3.96/4.89/4.35 line in 52.1 innings in AAA. Bryce Elder is in contention for Game 1 starter after giving up 6+ runs in 4 of 10 outings this season. AJ Smith-Shawver is a possibility for Game 1 starter after getting more seasoning in AAA this season. Grant Holmes, Charlie Morton, and Spencer Schwellenbach have started games in the last two days and might not be available. John Brebbia is currently not on the roster, but sports a 2.87 FIP and 3.33 xFIP versus righties this season and the Padres have plenty of those. Jesse Chavez provides an okayish multiple inning option with a 1.67 FIP in September. Luke Jackson has a 3.74 FIP in the second half but has let some games get away from him.
Pitchers on the Outside Looking In (4): Dylan Dodd, Chris Sale, Hurston Waldrep, Allan Winans
I’m not sure Chris Sale pitches again this year. Or he could start Game 3 depending on his back. Who knows? I don't think the Braves would add him today, but maybe later if he recovers.
Position Player Locks (12): Marcell Ozuna, Ramon Laureano, Michael Harris II, Jorge Soler, Eli White, Gio Urshela, Orlando Arcia, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Travis d’Arnaud, Sean Murphy, Whit Merrifield
These are your regular starters, accompanied by late-inning sub right fielder Eli White and utility player Whit Merrifeld. Not much else to say here.
Position Player Question Marks (3) : Adam Duvall, Chadwick Tromp, Jarred Kelenic
Our question marks begin with Adam Duvall, who last played on September 19th and who has had seven plate appearances in September. Chadwick Tromp offers a late-inning third catcher substitution should Murphy be selected to pitch-hit. Lastly you have Jarred Kelenic with his .767 OPS in September in limited plate appearances and center field defense.
Position Players on the Outside Looking in (3): Luke Williams, Cavan Biggio, Nacho Alvarez,
I’m not sure this group will be in consideration. Luke Williams offers utility defense and a ninth-inning emergency pitching option, but the Braves won’t be pitching the ninth in a Padres blowout since all of the games will be in San Diego.
PENCILS DOWN
I’ll assume the Braves will take 13 pitchers. The last two seasons they have brought 12 pitchers in for five-game sets, but the starting pitching options for Game 1 make that problematic. The postseason rules don’t specify a particular pitcher quorum, so maybe they take 14?
If the Braves are taking 13 position players, I would take the 12 locks and would think Kelenic gets the nod as well. They have added a third catcher before, but haven’t played him. I don’t think they use Kelenic either though so, eh. They may take Tromp after all.
I don’t really know what they do for Game 1 starter. I would love to think that they would roll with Aaron Bummer followed by Dylan Lee for some bulk innings. But the Padres are so good from the right sided batter’s box that I don’t know if that’s the best option either. RHP Daysbel Hernandez would have made a great option here, but he’s thrown 50 pitches in the last two days and may be unavailable.
I think the Braves may believe that Bryce Elder may have the best chance to flummox the Padres. When he has been good, he’s been good. He shut out the Marlins through 6.2, gave up one run versus the Brewers in 6.1, and had a few other good outings. But the stinker outings have been bad. If they pull him at the first sign of trouble and go with Bummer and Lee, the Braves might be ok. But this is Snitker making the call we’re talking about.
So I will go with the 8 pitcher locks plus Bryce Elder, Spencer Schwellenbach, Charlie Morton, Jesse Chavez, and depending on Grant Holmes’s status, either him or Luke Jackson. Those first four give them their best shot, even if it’s two one-inning side session appearances for Morton and Schwellenbach. I would rather have John Brebbia, but I think Luke Jackson gets the nod.
We’ll know in probably three hours, but let me know where I am wrong in the meantime.
<img alt="MLB: Game Two-New York Mets at Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/f7bd3ulFsRYaFfW7Rp1thijfcrE=/0x0:5232x3488/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73623886/usa_today_24369182.0.jpg">
Brett Davis-Imagn Images
How the Braves handle the Game 1 starter is the real wild card in this discussion I’m not sure I expected the Atlanta Braves to be here. This season has been filled with injuries and rainouts and interesting pitching strategy. It even featured some pestilence, but enough about the Phillies. Winning 89 games and gaining a playoff berth with this group of players is probably the most impressive accomplishment in the last 20 years, in my opinion. This team was constantly injuring one foot while repeatedly shooting the other all season.
The Braves somehow survived the regular season and will land in San Diego to face the Padres in a 3-game series. The first question becomes who starts Game one after playing four pressure-filled games in three days.
Pitcher Locks (8): Max Fried, Reynaldo Lopez, Aaron Bummer, Daysbel Hernandez, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, Raisel Iglesias
This eight appears to be locked in. Much of the talk centers around the Game 1 starter, but Fried and Lopez appear to be lined up for Game 2 and a possible 3. The usual suspects in the bullpen are here. I’ll include Pierce Johnson even after a fall-off in production since August, because he was still put in position to save a game yesterday.
Pitcher Question Marks (9): Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes, Charlie Morton, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, John Brebbia, Jesse Chavez, Luke Jackson
Here are six starting pitcher options and three in the bullpen. Ian Anderson hasn’t pitched for Atlanta since August 13th of 2022, but after working through Tommy John surgery in April 2023 was a starting pitcher in AAA Gwinnett. He has a 3.96/4.89/4.35 line in 52.1 innings in AAA. Bryce Elder is in contention for Game 1 starter after giving up 6+ runs in 4 of 10 outings this season. AJ Smith-Shawver is a possibility for Game 1 starter after getting more seasoning in AAA this season. Grant Holmes, Charlie Morton, and Spencer Schwellenbach have started games in the last two days and might not be available. John Brebbia is currently not on the roster, but sports a 2.87 FIP and 3.33 xFIP versus righties this season and the Padres have plenty of those. Jesse Chavez provides an okayish multiple inning option with a 1.67 FIP in September. Luke Jackson has a 3.74 FIP in the second half but has let some games get away from him.
Pitchers on the Outside Looking In (4): Dylan Dodd, Chris Sale, Hurston Waldrep, Allan Winans
I’m not sure Chris Sale pitches again this year. Or he could start Game 3 depending on his back. Who knows? I don't think the Braves would add him today, but maybe later if he recovers.
Position Player Locks (12): Marcell Ozuna, Ramon Laureano, Michael Harris II, Jorge Soler, Eli White, Gio Urshela, Orlando Arcia, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Travis d’Arnaud, Sean Murphy, Whit Merrifield
These are your regular starters, accompanied by late-inning sub right fielder Eli White and utility player Whit Merrifeld. Not much else to say here.
Position Player Question Marks (3) : Adam Duvall, Chadwick Tromp, Jarred Kelenic
Our question marks begin with Adam Duvall, who last played on September 19th and who has had seven plate appearances in September. Chadwick Tromp offers a late-inning third catcher substitution should Murphy be selected to pitch-hit. Lastly you have Jarred Kelenic with his .767 OPS in September in limited plate appearances and center field defense.
Position Players on the Outside Looking in (3): Luke Williams, Cavan Biggio, Nacho Alvarez,
I’m not sure this group will be in consideration. Luke Williams offers utility defense and a ninth-inning emergency pitching option, but the Braves won’t be pitching the ninth in a Padres blowout since all of the games will be in San Diego.
PENCILS DOWN
I’ll assume the Braves will take 13 pitchers. The last two seasons they have brought 12 pitchers in for five-game sets, but the starting pitching options for Game 1 make that problematic. The postseason rules don’t specify a particular pitcher quorum, so maybe they take 14?
If the Braves are taking 13 position players, I would take the 12 locks and would think Kelenic gets the nod as well. They have added a third catcher before, but haven’t played him. I don’t think they use Kelenic either though so, eh. They may take Tromp after all.
I don’t really know what they do for Game 1 starter. I would love to think that they would roll with Aaron Bummer followed by Dylan Lee for some bulk innings. But the Padres are so good from the right sided batter’s box that I don’t know if that’s the best option either. RHP Daysbel Hernandez would have made a great option here, but he’s thrown 50 pitches in the last two days and may be unavailable.
I think the Braves may believe that Bryce Elder may have the best chance to flummox the Padres. When he has been good, he’s been good. He shut out the Marlins through 6.2, gave up one run versus the Brewers in 6.1, and had a few other good outings. But the stinker outings have been bad. If they pull him at the first sign of trouble and go with Bummer and Lee, the Braves might be ok. But this is Snitker making the call we’re talking about.
So I will go with the 8 pitcher locks plus Bryce Elder, Spencer Schwellenbach, Charlie Morton, Jesse Chavez, and depending on Grant Holmes’s status, either him or Luke Jackson. Those first four give them their best shot, even if it’s two one-inning side session appearances for Morton and Schwellenbach. I would rather have John Brebbia, but I think Luke Jackson gets the nod.
We’ll know in probably three hours, but let me know where I am wrong in the meantime.
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