<img alt="San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_Duv2G-Orj59_NXhQg1rno2c9m0=/1x0:3928x2618/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73617525/2175149480.0.jpg">
Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images
The Braves came away with a big day on Friday, setting themselves in prime position for the playoffs The Atlanta Braves couldn’t have asked for a better day on Friday, getting a huge win over the Royals while taking a huge leap in the standings thanks to losses from the Mets and Diamondbacks. The Braves hold the tiebreaker over both squads, putting them in the driver’s seat to get the second or third wild card berth.
Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72) 3, San Diego Padres (92-68) 5
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The Arizona Diamondbacks are fading fast, and with four losses in their past five games they have gone from being in control of their own destiny to needing Atlanta and/or New York to slip up for them to have a shot. Arizona will lose out on tie-breakers to both, and with this tough matchup against the wild-card leading Padres it is no surprise that they got off to a rough start in the series. Arizona had to feel confident coming into this game with Merrill Kelly on the mound, who came into this outing on a hot streak with a sub-3 ERA and FIP in September. The game would start poorly for him though, with a jammed fly ball off of the bat of Luis Arraez falling perfectly in the right center gap for a lead off double. Manny Machado opened the scoring by skipping a ground ball past Ketel Marte at second base, and Padres were off to the races with a first inning that ultimately was what put away the game. Jackson Merrill brought home a run with a clean hit into center field, and a throwing error on an ill-advised attempt to turn two by Marte then allowed Machado to score the third run of the inning. David Peralta’s hot shot through the right side capped off a four run inning and Arizona never caught back up.
The Diamondbacks were not going down without a fight, though, as they quickly got theirs back against Yu Darvish. Corbin Carroll led off the inning by taking Darvish deep, and Darvish made a couple of mistakes with a walk to Marte and a hit batter to put Arizona in position to potentially tie the game back up early. A diving play from Xander Bogaerts on a bouncer over to short saved what could have been a bigger inning, as Darvish held the Diamondbacks to two runs and despite hitting him hard throughout the game Arizona couldn’t scratch anything more together. In the fourth inning Arraez would repeat his first inning fortunes, flipping a similar fly ball into the gap that fell just out of reach of Carroll for an RBI triple. Arizona would get one more big chance in the sixth inning after a hit batter chased Darvish from the game. Eugenio Suarez turned on a 98 mph fastball to drive home the third run of the game, bringing up Gabriel Moreno as the tying run. Moreno reached on a hopper that got past Machado at third base and the Diamondbacks found themselves with two runners in scoring position. Geraldo Perdomo failed to come through, taking an ugly half swing and rolling a grounder over to second for the final out.
This was a rough loss for the Diamondbacks from a luck perspective, as they had a .412 xwOBA as a team but only managed three runs and a .283 wOBA while the Padres had a .328 wOBA and .331 xwOBA. Over the past five games the pitching has been the weak point for Arizona as they have produced a .384 wOBA and .363 xwOBA during this 1-4 stretch, both of which rank behind only the Rockies for the second-worst in baseball during that span.
New York Mets (87-71) 4, Milwaukee Brewers (92-68) 8
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Another game where early runs played to the Braves’s favor, Milwaukee put up a four spot in the first inning and ended a long streak of success from Mets starter Sean Manaea. Manaea has been a work horse for the Mets lately, coming into this game with eight straight starts of either 6 2⁄3 or 7 inning during which time he has led baseball in innings pitched while pitching to a 2.93 ERA and 3.66 FIP. Manaea allowed a leadoff base hit to Brice Turang, but seemed to quickly get over that as a strikeout and a weak fly out had him in position to get out of the inning. Manaea then issued two straight walks where he got squeezed a bit early in those counts, before he made his one big mistake in the game. Manaea left a sinker middle-middle to Rhys Hoskins, who put a charge into one and cleared left center field for a grand slam. Milwaukee struck for another run in the second inning with Turang hitting a sinking double into center that just evaded Tyrone Taylor’s diving attempt. Turang overall had a huge day at the plate, going 3-4 with a walk and stealing three bases as he accounted for four of Milwaukee’s eight runs.
Milwaukee turned to Frankie Montas to start in this game, who prior to getting torched by the Diamondbacks last week had come into his own with the Brewers since being acquired at the trade deadline. Montas managed to hold the Mets to two runs over four innings, both coming on a Mark Vientos moonshot in the third inning, but it wasn’t a pretty sight to behold. Montas struggled with his command and issued three walks, managing to work around further damage thanks to some batted ball luck as the Brewers starter allowed a .336 wOBA despite a .451 xwOBA. Montas had a shaky fourth inning where he hit a batter and walked another, but nipped the bottom of the strike zone (according to statcast) on a 3-2 slider to Francisco Alvarez, getting a call that would lead to the ejection of Carlos Mendoza.
Fortunately for the Brewers this was also the end of the line for Montas, as their bullpen would shut down the Mets offense for the rest of the game. Joe Ross pitched three brilliant innings of relief where he didn’t allow a single well-hit batted ball, and in the meantime the Brewers added on a couple of runs. The game got a bit shaky in the eighth inning with the appearance of Hoby Milner, who loaded the bases with one out. With the bases loaded Harrison Bader put a charge into the ball in left center field, but Jackson Chourio was able to track it down, making a leaping play that saved runs and allowed only one to score. A dropped pop up by Turang allowed another run to score and extended the inning, but Trevor Megill came in to force a weak pop out that dashed New York’s final hope. Gary Sanchez annihilated a 425 foot home run in the eighth inning that put the bow on this one, with Megill remaining in to get the final three outs in the ninth inning.
The up-to-date NL Wild Card standings (Playoff Odds via FanGraphs):
Padres 92-68, +4.0, 100.0% Playoff Odds (—)
Braves 87-71, —, 90.7% Playoff Odds (+26.3 %)
Mets 87-71, —, 71.8% Playoff Odds (-5.0 %)
Diamondbacks 88-72, —, 37.5% Playoff Odds (-21.3 %)
<img alt="San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_Duv2G-Orj59_NXhQg1rno2c9m0=/1x0:3928x2618/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73617525/2175149480.0.jpg">
Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images
The Braves came away with a big day on Friday, setting themselves in prime position for the playoffs The Atlanta Braves couldn’t have asked for a better day on Friday, getting a huge win over the Royals while taking a huge leap in the standings thanks to losses from the Mets and Diamondbacks. The Braves hold the tiebreaker over both squads, putting them in the driver’s seat to get the second or third wild card berth.
Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72) 3, San Diego Padres (92-68) 5
box score | savant | highlights
The Arizona Diamondbacks are fading fast, and with four losses in their past five games they have gone from being in control of their own destiny to needing Atlanta and/or New York to slip up for them to have a shot. Arizona will lose out on tie-breakers to both, and with this tough matchup against the wild-card leading Padres it is no surprise that they got off to a rough start in the series. Arizona had to feel confident coming into this game with Merrill Kelly on the mound, who came into this outing on a hot streak with a sub-3 ERA and FIP in September. The game would start poorly for him though, with a jammed fly ball off of the bat of Luis Arraez falling perfectly in the right center gap for a lead off double. Manny Machado opened the scoring by skipping a ground ball past Ketel Marte at second base, and Padres were off to the races with a first inning that ultimately was what put away the game. Jackson Merrill brought home a run with a clean hit into center field, and a throwing error on an ill-advised attempt to turn two by Marte then allowed Machado to score the third run of the inning. David Peralta’s hot shot through the right side capped off a four run inning and Arizona never caught back up.
The Diamondbacks were not going down without a fight, though, as they quickly got theirs back against Yu Darvish. Corbin Carroll led off the inning by taking Darvish deep, and Darvish made a couple of mistakes with a walk to Marte and a hit batter to put Arizona in position to potentially tie the game back up early. A diving play from Xander Bogaerts on a bouncer over to short saved what could have been a bigger inning, as Darvish held the Diamondbacks to two runs and despite hitting him hard throughout the game Arizona couldn’t scratch anything more together. In the fourth inning Arraez would repeat his first inning fortunes, flipping a similar fly ball into the gap that fell just out of reach of Carroll for an RBI triple. Arizona would get one more big chance in the sixth inning after a hit batter chased Darvish from the game. Eugenio Suarez turned on a 98 mph fastball to drive home the third run of the game, bringing up Gabriel Moreno as the tying run. Moreno reached on a hopper that got past Machado at third base and the Diamondbacks found themselves with two runners in scoring position. Geraldo Perdomo failed to come through, taking an ugly half swing and rolling a grounder over to second for the final out.
This was a rough loss for the Diamondbacks from a luck perspective, as they had a .412 xwOBA as a team but only managed three runs and a .283 wOBA while the Padres had a .328 wOBA and .331 xwOBA. Over the past five games the pitching has been the weak point for Arizona as they have produced a .384 wOBA and .363 xwOBA during this 1-4 stretch, both of which rank behind only the Rockies for the second-worst in baseball during that span.
New York Mets (87-71) 4, Milwaukee Brewers (92-68) 8
box score | savant | highlights
Another game where early runs played to the Braves’s favor, Milwaukee put up a four spot in the first inning and ended a long streak of success from Mets starter Sean Manaea. Manaea has been a work horse for the Mets lately, coming into this game with eight straight starts of either 6 2⁄3 or 7 inning during which time he has led baseball in innings pitched while pitching to a 2.93 ERA and 3.66 FIP. Manaea allowed a leadoff base hit to Brice Turang, but seemed to quickly get over that as a strikeout and a weak fly out had him in position to get out of the inning. Manaea then issued two straight walks where he got squeezed a bit early in those counts, before he made his one big mistake in the game. Manaea left a sinker middle-middle to Rhys Hoskins, who put a charge into one and cleared left center field for a grand slam. Milwaukee struck for another run in the second inning with Turang hitting a sinking double into center that just evaded Tyrone Taylor’s diving attempt. Turang overall had a huge day at the plate, going 3-4 with a walk and stealing three bases as he accounted for four of Milwaukee’s eight runs.
Milwaukee turned to Frankie Montas to start in this game, who prior to getting torched by the Diamondbacks last week had come into his own with the Brewers since being acquired at the trade deadline. Montas managed to hold the Mets to two runs over four innings, both coming on a Mark Vientos moonshot in the third inning, but it wasn’t a pretty sight to behold. Montas struggled with his command and issued three walks, managing to work around further damage thanks to some batted ball luck as the Brewers starter allowed a .336 wOBA despite a .451 xwOBA. Montas had a shaky fourth inning where he hit a batter and walked another, but nipped the bottom of the strike zone (according to statcast) on a 3-2 slider to Francisco Alvarez, getting a call that would lead to the ejection of Carlos Mendoza.
Fortunately for the Brewers this was also the end of the line for Montas, as their bullpen would shut down the Mets offense for the rest of the game. Joe Ross pitched three brilliant innings of relief where he didn’t allow a single well-hit batted ball, and in the meantime the Brewers added on a couple of runs. The game got a bit shaky in the eighth inning with the appearance of Hoby Milner, who loaded the bases with one out. With the bases loaded Harrison Bader put a charge into the ball in left center field, but Jackson Chourio was able to track it down, making a leaping play that saved runs and allowed only one to score. A dropped pop up by Turang allowed another run to score and extended the inning, but Trevor Megill came in to force a weak pop out that dashed New York’s final hope. Gary Sanchez annihilated a 425 foot home run in the eighth inning that put the bow on this one, with Megill remaining in to get the final three outs in the ninth inning.
The up-to-date NL Wild Card standings (Playoff Odds via FanGraphs):
Padres 92-68, +4.0, 100.0% Playoff Odds (—)
Braves 87-71, —, 90.7% Playoff Odds (+26.3 %)
Mets 87-71, —, 71.8% Playoff Odds (-5.0 %)
Diamondbacks 88-72, —, 37.5% Playoff Odds (-21.3 %)
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