<img alt="MLB: Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/40eIExRK1YRmy6vp6CZi3JW2xD4=/0x0:3233x2155/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73607066/usa_today_24273297.0.jpg">
Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
The Braves could have started their ace Chris Sale in game one of the Mets series on Tuesday, which would have lined him up to start Game 162 on Sunday if the season is on the line. Here is why they chose to start him on Wednesday instead. As MLB kicks off the final week of their regular season, the Atlanta Braves have found themselves in an unfamiliar position – on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. At 85-71, Atlanta sits one-and-a-half games behind the Diamondbacks and two games behind the Mets with six games left to play.
Today begins the most important series of the Braves season, a decisive showdown in Atlanta against the New York Mets. The winner of this series will hold the tiebreaker should the two teams wind up with the same record at season’s end. In terms of the potential impact on their playoff odds, it is the most important regular season series the Braves have played since they came out of their rebuild in 2018.
Some have been saying that the Braves need a sweep over the Mets, and it’s true that a sweep is the only way that Atlanta can control their own destiny. If they don’t sweep, they’ll be counting on other teams to beat the D-Backs or Mets. In reality, what they need is to either win two more games than the Diamondbacks in the next week OR win the series vs. the Mets and win two more than them the rest of the way. The D-Backs finish the season at home with three games vs. San Francisco and three games vs. San Diego, the Mets will finish with a three game series in Milwaukee after they leave Atlanta, and the Braves will wrap up the regular season at home with a three game set against Kansas City.
Considering all these factors, a 5-1 week should get the job done. If they beat the Mets two out of three and sweep Kansas City, the Mets would need to sweep Milwaukee on the road AND Arizona would need at least a 4-2 week to keep the Braves out of the playoffs.
A 5-1 week is a tall order, however, particularly against two teams currently in playoff position. This is why most Braves fans (and beat writers) expected the Braves to flip Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach in the rotation, having Sale start in game one vs. the Mets on regular rest Tuesday so that he could be available on regular rest for Game 162 vs. KC on Sunday if the Braves’ playoff lives depended on it. Sale is the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young, and you certainly like your odds of a 5-1 week more when you know he will be pitching two of those games. But the Braves surprised us by announcing that they would keep Schwellenbach as the Tuesday starter and pitch Sale on Wednesday, setting up Schwellenbach as the likely starter for what could potentially be a season-deciding death match vs. the Royals in Game 162.
Not everyone agrees with this decision, and it’s certainly possible the Braves will come to regret it. But there are three reasons why it makes sense to do it this way:
Sale’s velocity has been slipping late in the season.
Winning vs. the Mets is the top priority
Spencer Schwellenbach is extremely capable
Let’s take a magnifying glass to each of these reasons in order.
Chris Sale’s velocity has slipped a bit lately.
In a season that has been so unexpected – mostly in bad, painful ways – one of the more shocking developments on the positive side has been Chris Sale regaining his ace form. Many words have been written about Sale’s dominance, and many more will be written on this site about his season in the weeks and months to come. The return of Sale’s velocity has been of huge importance to his resurgence – he’s averaging 94.8 mph with his four-seam fastball this year, the first time he’s been above 94.0 mph in a season with more than 10 IP since 2018.
In Sale’s past four starts, however, he’s averaged 93.8 mph – a full tick down from his season average. It should be noted that during that time, he did find some extra juice vs. the Dodgers, averaging 95.9 mph with his four-seamer when he limited them to one run in six innings. But in his other three starts, he averaged 93.0 mph, 93.6 mph, and a season-low 92.7 mph in his most recent start vs. the Reds. While he was still effective in each of those starts, his pitches had noticeably less life this past week in Cincinnati, and pitchers are generally most effective when they are operating at the top of their velo range.
Sale is already well beyond any workload that he’s sustained in any of the previous five years, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he is experiencing some fatigue. The Braves brass likely saw this and opted to give him the extra day to ensure he would have the dominant stuff he’s had all year for his most important start of the season. Which brings me to reason #2.
The Braves have to win Chris Sale’s start vs. the Mets
Winning the series vs. New York to gain the tiebreaker is absolutely imperative for the Braves playoff hopes. The Braves must believe they can get a little more from Sale in the series vs. New York by giving him the extra day of rest. They are prioritizing a marginally stronger start from a rested Sale vs. New York over getting two more starts from a heavily worked Sale. It’s that simple.
A huge factor which affords this line of thinking is Spencer Schwellenbach existing as the alternative for Chris Sale in Game 162. On to reason #3.
Spencer Schwellenbach is an extremely capable pitcher.
Schwellenbach’s emergence this year has been nothing short of astonishing. For a guy who was not considered a top 100 prospect by most publications before his debut, it’s pretty amazing that nearly every single metric out there confirms he is a top tier MLB starter.
His first couple of starts were a bit rocky, but he’s been nails ever since. Here are his stats and MLB ranks out of 69 qualified SP dating back to his 3rd MLB start on June 12th:
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
He’s been even better than this over his past 10 starts, posting a 29.1% K rate, 5.1% BB rate, 2.75 ERA and 2.86 FIP during a stretch that included two starts vs. the Phillies, a start vs. the Dodgers, and a start at Coors Field. The Braves have every reason to believe that, rookie or not, Schwelly is a guy they can trust in a big game vs. top competition. And if the Braves have a week that is good enough to make Game 162 meaningful, they’ll be putting that trust to the test on Sunday.
<img alt="MLB: Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/40eIExRK1YRmy6vp6CZi3JW2xD4=/0x0:3233x2155/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73607066/usa_today_24273297.0.jpg">
Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
The Braves could have started their ace Chris Sale in game one of the Mets series on Tuesday, which would have lined him up to start Game 162 on Sunday if the season is on the line. Here is why they chose to start him on Wednesday instead. As MLB kicks off the final week of their regular season, the Atlanta Braves have found themselves in an unfamiliar position – on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. At 85-71, Atlanta sits one-and-a-half games behind the Diamondbacks and two games behind the Mets with six games left to play.
Today begins the most important series of the Braves season, a decisive showdown in Atlanta against the New York Mets. The winner of this series will hold the tiebreaker should the two teams wind up with the same record at season’s end. In terms of the potential impact on their playoff odds, it is the most important regular season series the Braves have played since they came out of their rebuild in 2018.
Some have been saying that the Braves need a sweep over the Mets, and it’s true that a sweep is the only way that Atlanta can control their own destiny. If they don’t sweep, they’ll be counting on other teams to beat the D-Backs or Mets. In reality, what they need is to either win two more games than the Diamondbacks in the next week OR win the series vs. the Mets and win two more than them the rest of the way. The D-Backs finish the season at home with three games vs. San Francisco and three games vs. San Diego, the Mets will finish with a three game series in Milwaukee after they leave Atlanta, and the Braves will wrap up the regular season at home with a three game set against Kansas City.
Considering all these factors, a 5-1 week should get the job done. If they beat the Mets two out of three and sweep Kansas City, the Mets would need to sweep Milwaukee on the road AND Arizona would need at least a 4-2 week to keep the Braves out of the playoffs.
A 5-1 week is a tall order, however, particularly against two teams currently in playoff position. This is why most Braves fans (and beat writers) expected the Braves to flip Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach in the rotation, having Sale start in game one vs. the Mets on regular rest Tuesday so that he could be available on regular rest for Game 162 vs. KC on Sunday if the Braves’ playoff lives depended on it. Sale is the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young, and you certainly like your odds of a 5-1 week more when you know he will be pitching two of those games. But the Braves surprised us by announcing that they would keep Schwellenbach as the Tuesday starter and pitch Sale on Wednesday, setting up Schwellenbach as the likely starter for what could potentially be a season-deciding death match vs. the Royals in Game 162.
Not everyone agrees with this decision, and it’s certainly possible the Braves will come to regret it. But there are three reasons why it makes sense to do it this way:
Sale’s velocity has been slipping late in the season.
Winning vs. the Mets is the top priority
Spencer Schwellenbach is extremely capable
Let’s take a magnifying glass to each of these reasons in order.
Chris Sale’s velocity has slipped a bit lately.
In a season that has been so unexpected – mostly in bad, painful ways – one of the more shocking developments on the positive side has been Chris Sale regaining his ace form. Many words have been written about Sale’s dominance, and many more will be written on this site about his season in the weeks and months to come. The return of Sale’s velocity has been of huge importance to his resurgence – he’s averaging 94.8 mph with his four-seam fastball this year, the first time he’s been above 94.0 mph in a season with more than 10 IP since 2018.
In Sale’s past four starts, however, he’s averaged 93.8 mph – a full tick down from his season average. It should be noted that during that time, he did find some extra juice vs. the Dodgers, averaging 95.9 mph with his four-seamer when he limited them to one run in six innings. But in his other three starts, he averaged 93.0 mph, 93.6 mph, and a season-low 92.7 mph in his most recent start vs. the Reds. While he was still effective in each of those starts, his pitches had noticeably less life this past week in Cincinnati, and pitchers are generally most effective when they are operating at the top of their velo range.
Sale is already well beyond any workload that he’s sustained in any of the previous five years, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he is experiencing some fatigue. The Braves brass likely saw this and opted to give him the extra day to ensure he would have the dominant stuff he’s had all year for his most important start of the season. Which brings me to reason #2.
The Braves have to win Chris Sale’s start vs. the Mets
Winning the series vs. New York to gain the tiebreaker is absolutely imperative for the Braves playoff hopes. The Braves must believe they can get a little more from Sale in the series vs. New York by giving him the extra day of rest. They are prioritizing a marginally stronger start from a rested Sale vs. New York over getting two more starts from a heavily worked Sale. It’s that simple.
A huge factor which affords this line of thinking is Spencer Schwellenbach existing as the alternative for Chris Sale in Game 162. On to reason #3.
Spencer Schwellenbach is an extremely capable pitcher.
Schwellenbach’s emergence this year has been nothing short of astonishing. For a guy who was not considered a top 100 prospect by most publications before his debut, it’s pretty amazing that nearly every single metric out there confirms he is a top tier MLB starter.
His first couple of starts were a bit rocky, but he’s been nails ever since. Here are his stats and MLB ranks out of 69 qualified SP dating back to his 3rd MLB start on June 12th:
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
He’s been even better than this over his past 10 starts, posting a 29.1% K rate, 5.1% BB rate, 2.75 ERA and 2.86 FIP during a stretch that included two starts vs. the Phillies, a start vs. the Dodgers, and a start at Coors Field. The Braves have every reason to believe that, rookie or not, Schwelly is a guy they can trust in a big game vs. top competition. And if the Braves have a week that is good enough to make Game 162 meaningful, they’ll be putting that trust to the test on Sunday.
Link to original article
