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The Braves best offensive prospect this season finished Triple-A with a flourish, leading the team in hits his final week The final week of the season for Atlanta Braves minor league baseball has passed, with the Gwinnett Stripers ending theirs on a three-game losing streak. Despite this they got a handful of key performances from their top prospects, and now attention for us prospect addicts will turn to the upcoming Arizona Fall League season that kicks off on October 8th for Peoria. We will be getting rosters soon, and Battery Power will have consistent coverage of the AFL season along with some minor league wrap ups coming up hopefully at the same time as a Braves playoff run.
Gwinnett Stripers
Record: 72-78, 37-38 2nd half, 5th in IL West (11.5 GB)
Gwinnett went on a scorcher and were in the running to make the playoffs, but after getting smoked in their matchup against the first-place and eventual second half winning Columbus Clippers they faded mightily down the stretch. Gwinnett ended the second half with the best run differential in the International League, however, largely due to a pitching staff that allowed the fewest runs. Sunday’s finale was headlined by a ten-strikeout, 24 whiff performance from AJ Smith-Shawver, which also featured four home runs allowed which tanked Smith-Shawver’s final stat line. Smith-Shawver’s inability to find his command throughout the season led to home runs being a real issue. Despite struggling most of the year to have any success with his breaking pitches AJ Smith-Shawver finished with a team-leading 31% whiff rate (min 1000 pitches) and over the last couple of months featured a consistent shape on his slider that started to produce good results. However he has yet to find a way to avoid leaving pitches over the plate, with 32.9% of his fastball landing in the heart of the zone, and hitters haven’t been missing there either. Smith-Shawver’s fastball had the second-highest barrel rate in Triple-A when left in the heart of the zone and his pitches overall had the third-highest barrel rate in the heart of the zone. While in Sunday’s game Smith-Shawver did a decent job of elevating his fastball he also saw the pitch drift into the middle of the zone, and Jacksonville hitters weren’t missing as they took his fastball deep three times. He wasn’t burying his slider either and was scattering his changeup, leading to him almost completely relying on his fastball to get outs. While he missed bats the hard-hit balls piled up rapidly. The Braves at this point feel his pitch mix is major league ready, but his command and extremely fastball-heavy approach needs to be adjusted in order for him to settle into long term success at that level.
Hurston Waldrep had some intriguing results in his start, and that is said in a good way. Waldrep went multiple starts consecutively without forcing a whiff on his fastball, and a change in a release point along with a velocity dip following his injury had drastically affected the shape and quality of his fastballs. Last Tuesday though was a different story, as his fastball velocity bumped up and he forced eight whiffs on just that pitch alone. Waldrep shied away from his splitter usage a bit and was feeding all of his pitches into the zone at a high rate, where both his fastball and splitter were having success getting in-zone swing and miss. His slider was still a distant third pitch and the increased usage may have just been the Braves getting him work on that pitch in particular, but that fastball success is what really matters. Waldrep’s command is still a good distance away from what it needs for him to be a consistent mid-rotation type starter, currently forcing him into a back-end/swing man type role until and unless he improves, but having success with his fastball and with his splitter in the zone is a key for him to take another step. As it stood for his entire professional career Waldrep threw very few splitters in the zone, and as a result experienced hitters could basically sit on his fastball and crush it while spitting on everything else. This issue was not apparent against lower level hitters, but his major league debut displayed just how quickly experienced hitters can adjust and take away a pitcher’s strengths and Waldrep has struggled to find an identity that can lead to success. If Waldrep can land his splitter in the zone often enough hitters actually have to swing at it, he will find much more success on all of his pitches as hitters will have to account for trying to make contact against multiple pitches.
Ian Anderson was in a good place with his pitch mix, but it seems like fatigue may be creeping in as his work load has increased down the stretch. His fastball velocity has dipped for a few games and his command of the new slider he is working with has dropped off of a cliff, leading him back into mostly working fastball/changeup. His changeup is dominant at any level and he did a great job landing that pitch on the his arm side down in the zone this past game, but other than that it was a pretty lackluster day for his command and non-changeup pitch quality. I’m going to take it easy here because to reiterate fatigue is almost certainly a factor in his slider and overall command losing consistency compared to a few starts ago. I think Anderson finished out this season in a good spot and had started to get a really good feel for his new pitches and approach, and an offseason of recovery will serve him well going into spring training. I do think he needs to get back into that 94+ mph range for him to earn back a major league job beyond just being a back end type starter, but he’s returning from a host of injuries and he’s been sharper than you would often expect pitchers to be.
The final pitcher to look at is Drue Hackenberg, who is more or less finding his way at Triple-A. His whiff rates across the board have gone up significantly since his first couple of starts, though his command has been a much less reliable feature in his arsenal. He threw 61% fastball/sinker in this past start and the Braves seem to be focusing in on having him command his fastball before they’re ready to take the next step in his development. That’s the appropriate response in my opinion, and I’ve been impressed by Hackenberg’s cutter as a third pitch. He has not been landing quality curveballs at all and his changeup is weak in regards to its raw shape/velocity, but if he can command his fastballs well I think he can go into starts with a kitchen-sink type approach that allows all of his pitches to play up. His curveball is the real strikeout pitch there, but he hasn’t had it at Triple-A in any of his starts and will need to improve dramatically to make it a useful pitch. His pitches should work, he just needs to throw more than 37% of them in the zone and especially needs to land that curveball. The other issue I have with his curveball is that it may actually be too different from his other pitches to work at this point. It varies drastically from all of his other pitches in terms of shape and velocity, and without something intermediate to it to tunnel off of it may be hard for him to get experienced hitters to bit on that pitch especially when he can’t throw it for a strike anyways. Similar to what they’ve done with Smith-Shawver it may be a situation where they need to have Hackenberg throw his curveball a bit harder and with a bit less movement, making it easier to tunnel off of his other pitches and easier to command around the zone.
Hitting-wise you know where we’re going here, Drake Baldwin was once again fantastic leading the team in xwOBA last week and continuing to hit the ball hard. Baldwin is lifting the ball more consistently and pulling it more consistently, though the trade off has been an increase in whiff rates most notably on sliders from both right and left-handed pitchers. Baldwin is getting beat on the inside corner down, where many of his whiffs have come from, but has also shown that he isn’t really the type of hitter that you can beat the same way twice. As he sees pitchers two or more times he has shown a remarkable ability to recognize and adjust to patterns and opponent approaches within games and even at bats, and the only pitches he’s really looked like he’s had consistent issues with are low-release lefties that he has trouble picking release points from. Otherwise he is a guy who second and third time through does a great job picking apart opponents, and while is overall ability to hit the ball hard pull side and lift the ball to increase power production may need some work his ability to make the necessary micro-adjustments is something that bodes well for him sticking as an above-average hitter at the major league level. Unfortunately Nacho Alvarez has been a bit more slow-progressing, showing some flashes of the adjustments he needs to make but overall a huge dip in the quality of his contact since he started at Triple-A. For awhile there Nacho was running into enough fly balls into the corner to rack up some home runs, but lately those have been falling short of the wall and he is just not able to lift fastballs with enough consistency for pitchers to not challenge him in the zone. He too often gets pitches in the heart of the zone and pokes them the opposite way instead of taking full swings to look for hard contact, and he seems to be in a stage where he is a bit in between approaches and struggling to figure out what eh should and should not attack in the zone. His zone recognition is still solid, and he recognizes spin well, it’s just the inconsistent attack in the zone that has been frustrating to watch. It’s important though to realize that Alvarez is a 21 year old who blitzed through the minor leagues and didn’t struggle to get results until a major league call up. Some of the adjustments he’s needed to make now he has never had to make before, and he’s having to do it against much-older competition who has experience picking apart those sort of flaws in hitters. It may take some time and Alvarez’s lack of high end hard contact will limit his ceiling, but there are still plenty of traits in regards to his contact ability and recognition that are impressive and he needs seasoning at Triple-A to figure out how to both make adjustments in game and to gear his swing to get his batted balls off of the ground.
<img alt="2024 All-Star Futures Game" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dvgCr1Z5MCCb24kLPGB1GaT3tJ0=/0x0:4699x3133/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73606783/2161343789.0.jpg">
Photo by Sam Hodde/MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Braves best offensive prospect this season finished Triple-A with a flourish, leading the team in hits his final week The final week of the season for Atlanta Braves minor league baseball has passed, with the Gwinnett Stripers ending theirs on a three-game losing streak. Despite this they got a handful of key performances from their top prospects, and now attention for us prospect addicts will turn to the upcoming Arizona Fall League season that kicks off on October 8th for Peoria. We will be getting rosters soon, and Battery Power will have consistent coverage of the AFL season along with some minor league wrap ups coming up hopefully at the same time as a Braves playoff run.
Gwinnett Stripers
Record: 72-78, 37-38 2nd half, 5th in IL West (11.5 GB)
Gwinnett went on a scorcher and were in the running to make the playoffs, but after getting smoked in their matchup against the first-place and eventual second half winning Columbus Clippers they faded mightily down the stretch. Gwinnett ended the second half with the best run differential in the International League, however, largely due to a pitching staff that allowed the fewest runs. Sunday’s finale was headlined by a ten-strikeout, 24 whiff performance from AJ Smith-Shawver, which also featured four home runs allowed which tanked Smith-Shawver’s final stat line. Smith-Shawver’s inability to find his command throughout the season led to home runs being a real issue. Despite struggling most of the year to have any success with his breaking pitches AJ Smith-Shawver finished with a team-leading 31% whiff rate (min 1000 pitches) and over the last couple of months featured a consistent shape on his slider that started to produce good results. However he has yet to find a way to avoid leaving pitches over the plate, with 32.9% of his fastball landing in the heart of the zone, and hitters haven’t been missing there either. Smith-Shawver’s fastball had the second-highest barrel rate in Triple-A when left in the heart of the zone and his pitches overall had the third-highest barrel rate in the heart of the zone. While in Sunday’s game Smith-Shawver did a decent job of elevating his fastball he also saw the pitch drift into the middle of the zone, and Jacksonville hitters weren’t missing as they took his fastball deep three times. He wasn’t burying his slider either and was scattering his changeup, leading to him almost completely relying on his fastball to get outs. While he missed bats the hard-hit balls piled up rapidly. The Braves at this point feel his pitch mix is major league ready, but his command and extremely fastball-heavy approach needs to be adjusted in order for him to settle into long term success at that level.
Hurston Waldrep had some intriguing results in his start, and that is said in a good way. Waldrep went multiple starts consecutively without forcing a whiff on his fastball, and a change in a release point along with a velocity dip following his injury had drastically affected the shape and quality of his fastballs. Last Tuesday though was a different story, as his fastball velocity bumped up and he forced eight whiffs on just that pitch alone. Waldrep shied away from his splitter usage a bit and was feeding all of his pitches into the zone at a high rate, where both his fastball and splitter were having success getting in-zone swing and miss. His slider was still a distant third pitch and the increased usage may have just been the Braves getting him work on that pitch in particular, but that fastball success is what really matters. Waldrep’s command is still a good distance away from what it needs for him to be a consistent mid-rotation type starter, currently forcing him into a back-end/swing man type role until and unless he improves, but having success with his fastball and with his splitter in the zone is a key for him to take another step. As it stood for his entire professional career Waldrep threw very few splitters in the zone, and as a result experienced hitters could basically sit on his fastball and crush it while spitting on everything else. This issue was not apparent against lower level hitters, but his major league debut displayed just how quickly experienced hitters can adjust and take away a pitcher’s strengths and Waldrep has struggled to find an identity that can lead to success. If Waldrep can land his splitter in the zone often enough hitters actually have to swing at it, he will find much more success on all of his pitches as hitters will have to account for trying to make contact against multiple pitches.
Ian Anderson was in a good place with his pitch mix, but it seems like fatigue may be creeping in as his work load has increased down the stretch. His fastball velocity has dipped for a few games and his command of the new slider he is working with has dropped off of a cliff, leading him back into mostly working fastball/changeup. His changeup is dominant at any level and he did a great job landing that pitch on the his arm side down in the zone this past game, but other than that it was a pretty lackluster day for his command and non-changeup pitch quality. I’m going to take it easy here because to reiterate fatigue is almost certainly a factor in his slider and overall command losing consistency compared to a few starts ago. I think Anderson finished out this season in a good spot and had started to get a really good feel for his new pitches and approach, and an offseason of recovery will serve him well going into spring training. I do think he needs to get back into that 94+ mph range for him to earn back a major league job beyond just being a back end type starter, but he’s returning from a host of injuries and he’s been sharper than you would often expect pitchers to be.
The final pitcher to look at is Drue Hackenberg, who is more or less finding his way at Triple-A. His whiff rates across the board have gone up significantly since his first couple of starts, though his command has been a much less reliable feature in his arsenal. He threw 61% fastball/sinker in this past start and the Braves seem to be focusing in on having him command his fastball before they’re ready to take the next step in his development. That’s the appropriate response in my opinion, and I’ve been impressed by Hackenberg’s cutter as a third pitch. He has not been landing quality curveballs at all and his changeup is weak in regards to its raw shape/velocity, but if he can command his fastballs well I think he can go into starts with a kitchen-sink type approach that allows all of his pitches to play up. His curveball is the real strikeout pitch there, but he hasn’t had it at Triple-A in any of his starts and will need to improve dramatically to make it a useful pitch. His pitches should work, he just needs to throw more than 37% of them in the zone and especially needs to land that curveball. The other issue I have with his curveball is that it may actually be too different from his other pitches to work at this point. It varies drastically from all of his other pitches in terms of shape and velocity, and without something intermediate to it to tunnel off of it may be hard for him to get experienced hitters to bit on that pitch especially when he can’t throw it for a strike anyways. Similar to what they’ve done with Smith-Shawver it may be a situation where they need to have Hackenberg throw his curveball a bit harder and with a bit less movement, making it easier to tunnel off of his other pitches and easier to command around the zone.
Hitting-wise you know where we’re going here, Drake Baldwin was once again fantastic leading the team in xwOBA last week and continuing to hit the ball hard. Baldwin is lifting the ball more consistently and pulling it more consistently, though the trade off has been an increase in whiff rates most notably on sliders from both right and left-handed pitchers. Baldwin is getting beat on the inside corner down, where many of his whiffs have come from, but has also shown that he isn’t really the type of hitter that you can beat the same way twice. As he sees pitchers two or more times he has shown a remarkable ability to recognize and adjust to patterns and opponent approaches within games and even at bats, and the only pitches he’s really looked like he’s had consistent issues with are low-release lefties that he has trouble picking release points from. Otherwise he is a guy who second and third time through does a great job picking apart opponents, and while is overall ability to hit the ball hard pull side and lift the ball to increase power production may need some work his ability to make the necessary micro-adjustments is something that bodes well for him sticking as an above-average hitter at the major league level. Unfortunately Nacho Alvarez has been a bit more slow-progressing, showing some flashes of the adjustments he needs to make but overall a huge dip in the quality of his contact since he started at Triple-A. For awhile there Nacho was running into enough fly balls into the corner to rack up some home runs, but lately those have been falling short of the wall and he is just not able to lift fastballs with enough consistency for pitchers to not challenge him in the zone. He too often gets pitches in the heart of the zone and pokes them the opposite way instead of taking full swings to look for hard contact, and he seems to be in a stage where he is a bit in between approaches and struggling to figure out what eh should and should not attack in the zone. His zone recognition is still solid, and he recognizes spin well, it’s just the inconsistent attack in the zone that has been frustrating to watch. It’s important though to realize that Alvarez is a 21 year old who blitzed through the minor leagues and didn’t struggle to get results until a major league call up. Some of the adjustments he’s needed to make now he has never had to make before, and he’s having to do it against much-older competition who has experience picking apart those sort of flaws in hitters. It may take some time and Alvarez’s lack of high end hard contact will limit his ceiling, but there are still plenty of traits in regards to his contact ability and recognition that are impressive and he needs seasoning at Triple-A to figure out how to both make adjustments in game and to gear his swing to get his batted balls off of the ground.
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