<img alt="New York Mets v Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wpG8vgLZvCx_TMEMcpoVke-ju0A=/0x0:4608x3072/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73606875/2149277995.0.jpg">
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
More than likely, the fate of both of these teams is all going to come down to who comes out on top in this series. The penultimate series of the season for our Atlanta Braves is here and it’s looking like it’s going to be a doozy. The Braves have the New York Mets coming into town and once again, the stakes couldn’t be any higher for a late-season series between these two teams. There’s an NL Wild Card spot on the line here and the next three games could very well decide who ends up getting that Wild Card spot.
If the Braves are going to get that spot here at home, they’ll really have to earn it because the Mets have been red-hot here in the second half of the season. They are currently 38-23 sine the break and their stats since the Braves last saw them on July 29 are extremely impressive. According to wRC+, they have produced at the plate at a clip of .248/.323/.417 with a .323 wOBA and 111 wRC+ since the last time they locked horns with the Braves. Atlanta’s actually kept up with them in terms of offense since then, as the Braves themselves have hit .251/.322/.439 with a .329 wOBA and 111 wRC+.
Atlanta also has the power advantage as well, as they’ve hit for .187 in Isolated Power and 81 homers since then, compared to New York’s .169 in Isolated Power and 65 homers. Francisco Lindor has been the engine powering this team in offense, with Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias being dangerous as well. Also, Luisangel Acuña has been hot out of the gate after being called up and you know he’ll be looking to really show out in his big brother’s stadium. Either way, this New York lineup has been getting the job done so far and it really wouldn’t be shocking if they continued to do so in this series.
Meanwhile, their pitching staff has been especially impressive during this stretch. The Mets pitching staff since July 29 have a collective ERA- of 85 (fifth-best in baseball since then), a FIP- of 85 (third-best in that span) and a 94 wRC+ (top-10 in baseball since that time). This is another case where Atlanta’s pitching staff has been just as good (87 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 80 xFIP- to boot) during that span, so it also wouldn’t be particularly shocking if this turned into a trio of pitcher’s duels. Unfortunately for the Braves, they’ll also have to deal with the top of New York’s rotation and also Edwín Diaz appears to be returning to the point where you absolutely don’t want to get to the ninth (or apparently even the eighth inning) with this guy out there with a lead. So yeah, this should be a tough series but did you really expect anything less with the Postseason on the line?
Tuesday, September 24, 7:20 pm E.T., Bally Sports South
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (19 GS, 109.2 IP, 86 ERA-, 83 FIP-, 26.3 K%, 3.9 BB%)
Schwellenbach’s baptism-by-fire as a rookie continues, as he’s been called upon to start in what will be the biggest game of the season (until Wednesday’s game becomes the biggest game of the season). The good news for us is that Schwellenbach has been very reliable this season and his past two starts have gone really well. He’s pitched 12 innings across his past two starts and given up five hits, three walks, three runs, and 11 strikeouts. This came against a Dodgers lineup that is rolling and an inconsistent Reds lineup, so he’s getting it done against all types of baseball life.
He also has a pretty good track record against the Mets. It didn’t take Schwellenbach two starts to strike out 11 batters against the Mets, because he did it in one seven-inning start against New York back on July 27. That start has been the crown jewel of Schwellenbach’s rookie season so far and it would be absolutely fantastic if he figured out a way to repeat that performance on Tuesday night.
RHP Luis Severino (30 GS, 178.0 IP, 96 ERA-, 104 FIP-, 21.1 K%, 8.0 BB%)
After ending his time in the Bronx with a flop, Luis Severino has revived his career in Queens and had himself a very solid season on a one-year deal with the Mets. Severino’s had at least three starts this season where he’s gone at least eight innings deep into a game and just last month he threw a complete game shut out with eight strikeouts against the Marlins. With that being said, he didn’t exactly look dominant against the Phillies over his past couple of starts. Part of that has to do with the fact that, well, it’s the Phillies; but also, Severino has not pitched anywhere close to this many innings since 2018. Just like Schwellenbach (and Chris Sale), he could be dealing with a bit of fatigue heading into this final portion of the season. He had a great start to the month where he had a pair of starts where he got into the seventh inning and only gave up one run in each of those starts but it could be something to watch for.
As far as his games against the Braves are concerned, the Braves don’t exactly have a strong record of success against him here in 2024. Atlanta was only able to push past two runs against Severino in each of the two starts he had against the Braves this season. He only went five innings in each of those starts but he did rack up 10 strikeouts across those two starts as well. As you can imagine, it won’t be easy dealing with Severino to start this series.
Wednesday, September 25, 7:20 pm E.T., Bally Sports South
LHP Chris Sale (29 GS, 177.2 IP, 57 ERA-, 53 FIP-, 32.1 K%, 5.6 BB%)
Usually this would be the time where I talk about Chris Sale being a shoo-in for the NL Cy Young Award and having a serious shot at coming away with the Pitching Triple Crown this season. Indeed, he’s having an incredible season but at the same time, he’s definitely showing signs of slowing down a bit. Just like Severino, Sale has not thrown anywhere near this many innings since 2019 and Sale has clearly been doing some self-regulation in order to make sure that he’s got enough gas in the tank to help the Braves here in the final part of the regular season and potentially beyond that in October. He had good starts against the Dodgers and Reds, regardless, but it was clear that he was definitely holding back a bit.
With that being said, this seems like as good of a time as any to go ahead and empty the tank. This will be his last start of the regular season and it’s coming against the Mets, so he’s got to make it a good one. He made it into the eighth inning against the Mets back on July 25 while giving up two runs but striking out nine. The two runs allowed qualifies as an offensive explosion against Sale this season and the Mets ended up winning that game in a close 3-2 affair. This would be a great time for Sale to end his incredible regular season on a flourish and deliver a vintage performance.
LHP David Peterson (20 GS, 114.0 IP, 78 ERA-, 93 FIP-, 19.1 K%, 8.8 BB%)
This has been a career year for Peterson, who has racked up 1.7 fWAR o the season while also posting career-lows in ERA- and FIP-. This appears to be Peterson’s ceiling as far as performance is concerned, which isn’t to be condescending but to say that floating around 2 fWAR as a pitcher is a very solid place to be.
Still, Peterson has hit some bumps in the road here in September. He opened up the month by only giving up one run over six innings while striking out 11 Red Sox batters. He followed that up by getting knocked out after giving up five runs (four earned) over 4.1 IP against the Blue Jays. He responded by making it into the eighth inning against the Phillies while only giving up one run but then the Phillies got their get-back and tagged him for five runs (four earned, again) over just 3.2 IP in that one. If the pattern holds, the Braves might be in trouble. Hopefully it’ll break and Atlanta can pick up where the Phillies left off.
Thursday, September 26, 7:20 pm E.T., Bally Sports South
LHP Max Fried (28 GS, 165.2 IP, 82 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 23.0 K%, 8.0 BB%)
This is more-than-likely going to be Max Fried’s final regular season start as a Braves pitcher and it really is fitting that it’s coming in a big game where they’re going to need him to be Maximum Fried if they want to have any serious hope of making the Postseason. Fried has had a rollercoaster of a season on his way to picking up 3.0 fWAR on the season so far.
The month of September has been a prime example of the Max Fried experience here in 2024. He started the month by pitching seven innings against the Blue Jays where he only gave up one unearned run while striking out eight. He then went up to Washington and got tagged for four runs and followed that up with the Dodgers getting him for three runs. He then went down to Miami and only gave up two runs (one earned) against the Marlins. The good news is that in each of those starts, he went at least six innings and he’s made it at least five in each of his past nine starts. Again, the Braves are going to need Fried to be at his best in this one — especially if he wants to extend his time with the Braves with a Postseason run.
LHP Sean Manaea (31 GS, 178.0 IP, 83 ERA-, 93 FIP-, 25.5 K%, 8.5 BB%)
Once again, the Mets are surely happy that one of their recent acquisitions has picked this season to. have one of the best seasons of their respective careers. Sean Manaea is having his best season since 2021. In terms of ERA- and FIP, he’s having probably the best season of his career when it comes to keeping both of those stats in particular pretty low. He’s lived up to the expectations that the Mets had for him when they signed him and they’ll surely be hoping that he can pitch them into the Postseason in this game in particular.
Interestingly enough, the Braves still have yet to see Manaea here in 2024 and Atlanta hasn’t faced him since August 26 of last year, which is when he came in as a reliever for the Giants and struck out five Braves batters over just 3.2 innings of relief. Meanwhile here in 2024, Manaea is coming off of three straight starts where he made it into the seventh inning. He only gave up one run in those first two starts and then gave up three against the Phillies in his last outing. He’s peaking at the right time and the Braves will have to put a stop to it if they’re going to have a shot to make sure their chances of going to the Postseason are still alive once this series is done.
<img alt="New York Mets v Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wpG8vgLZvCx_TMEMcpoVke-ju0A=/0x0:4608x3072/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73606875/2149277995.0.jpg">
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
More than likely, the fate of both of these teams is all going to come down to who comes out on top in this series. The penultimate series of the season for our Atlanta Braves is here and it’s looking like it’s going to be a doozy. The Braves have the New York Mets coming into town and once again, the stakes couldn’t be any higher for a late-season series between these two teams. There’s an NL Wild Card spot on the line here and the next three games could very well decide who ends up getting that Wild Card spot.
If the Braves are going to get that spot here at home, they’ll really have to earn it because the Mets have been red-hot here in the second half of the season. They are currently 38-23 sine the break and their stats since the Braves last saw them on July 29 are extremely impressive. According to wRC+, they have produced at the plate at a clip of .248/.323/.417 with a .323 wOBA and 111 wRC+ since the last time they locked horns with the Braves. Atlanta’s actually kept up with them in terms of offense since then, as the Braves themselves have hit .251/.322/.439 with a .329 wOBA and 111 wRC+.
Atlanta also has the power advantage as well, as they’ve hit for .187 in Isolated Power and 81 homers since then, compared to New York’s .169 in Isolated Power and 65 homers. Francisco Lindor has been the engine powering this team in offense, with Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias being dangerous as well. Also, Luisangel Acuña has been hot out of the gate after being called up and you know he’ll be looking to really show out in his big brother’s stadium. Either way, this New York lineup has been getting the job done so far and it really wouldn’t be shocking if they continued to do so in this series.
Meanwhile, their pitching staff has been especially impressive during this stretch. The Mets pitching staff since July 29 have a collective ERA- of 85 (fifth-best in baseball since then), a FIP- of 85 (third-best in that span) and a 94 wRC+ (top-10 in baseball since that time). This is another case where Atlanta’s pitching staff has been just as good (87 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 80 xFIP- to boot) during that span, so it also wouldn’t be particularly shocking if this turned into a trio of pitcher’s duels. Unfortunately for the Braves, they’ll also have to deal with the top of New York’s rotation and also Edwín Diaz appears to be returning to the point where you absolutely don’t want to get to the ninth (or apparently even the eighth inning) with this guy out there with a lead. So yeah, this should be a tough series but did you really expect anything less with the Postseason on the line?
Tuesday, September 24, 7:20 pm E.T., Bally Sports South
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (19 GS, 109.2 IP, 86 ERA-, 83 FIP-, 26.3 K%, 3.9 BB%)
Schwellenbach’s baptism-by-fire as a rookie continues, as he’s been called upon to start in what will be the biggest game of the season (until Wednesday’s game becomes the biggest game of the season). The good news for us is that Schwellenbach has been very reliable this season and his past two starts have gone really well. He’s pitched 12 innings across his past two starts and given up five hits, three walks, three runs, and 11 strikeouts. This came against a Dodgers lineup that is rolling and an inconsistent Reds lineup, so he’s getting it done against all types of baseball life.
He also has a pretty good track record against the Mets. It didn’t take Schwellenbach two starts to strike out 11 batters against the Mets, because he did it in one seven-inning start against New York back on July 27. That start has been the crown jewel of Schwellenbach’s rookie season so far and it would be absolutely fantastic if he figured out a way to repeat that performance on Tuesday night.
RHP Luis Severino (30 GS, 178.0 IP, 96 ERA-, 104 FIP-, 21.1 K%, 8.0 BB%)
After ending his time in the Bronx with a flop, Luis Severino has revived his career in Queens and had himself a very solid season on a one-year deal with the Mets. Severino’s had at least three starts this season where he’s gone at least eight innings deep into a game and just last month he threw a complete game shut out with eight strikeouts against the Marlins. With that being said, he didn’t exactly look dominant against the Phillies over his past couple of starts. Part of that has to do with the fact that, well, it’s the Phillies; but also, Severino has not pitched anywhere close to this many innings since 2018. Just like Schwellenbach (and Chris Sale), he could be dealing with a bit of fatigue heading into this final portion of the season. He had a great start to the month where he had a pair of starts where he got into the seventh inning and only gave up one run in each of those starts but it could be something to watch for.
As far as his games against the Braves are concerned, the Braves don’t exactly have a strong record of success against him here in 2024. Atlanta was only able to push past two runs against Severino in each of the two starts he had against the Braves this season. He only went five innings in each of those starts but he did rack up 10 strikeouts across those two starts as well. As you can imagine, it won’t be easy dealing with Severino to start this series.
Wednesday, September 25, 7:20 pm E.T., Bally Sports South
LHP Chris Sale (29 GS, 177.2 IP, 57 ERA-, 53 FIP-, 32.1 K%, 5.6 BB%)
Usually this would be the time where I talk about Chris Sale being a shoo-in for the NL Cy Young Award and having a serious shot at coming away with the Pitching Triple Crown this season. Indeed, he’s having an incredible season but at the same time, he’s definitely showing signs of slowing down a bit. Just like Severino, Sale has not thrown anywhere near this many innings since 2019 and Sale has clearly been doing some self-regulation in order to make sure that he’s got enough gas in the tank to help the Braves here in the final part of the regular season and potentially beyond that in October. He had good starts against the Dodgers and Reds, regardless, but it was clear that he was definitely holding back a bit.
With that being said, this seems like as good of a time as any to go ahead and empty the tank. This will be his last start of the regular season and it’s coming against the Mets, so he’s got to make it a good one. He made it into the eighth inning against the Mets back on July 25 while giving up two runs but striking out nine. The two runs allowed qualifies as an offensive explosion against Sale this season and the Mets ended up winning that game in a close 3-2 affair. This would be a great time for Sale to end his incredible regular season on a flourish and deliver a vintage performance.
LHP David Peterson (20 GS, 114.0 IP, 78 ERA-, 93 FIP-, 19.1 K%, 8.8 BB%)
This has been a career year for Peterson, who has racked up 1.7 fWAR o the season while also posting career-lows in ERA- and FIP-. This appears to be Peterson’s ceiling as far as performance is concerned, which isn’t to be condescending but to say that floating around 2 fWAR as a pitcher is a very solid place to be.
Still, Peterson has hit some bumps in the road here in September. He opened up the month by only giving up one run over six innings while striking out 11 Red Sox batters. He followed that up by getting knocked out after giving up five runs (four earned) over 4.1 IP against the Blue Jays. He responded by making it into the eighth inning against the Phillies while only giving up one run but then the Phillies got their get-back and tagged him for five runs (four earned, again) over just 3.2 IP in that one. If the pattern holds, the Braves might be in trouble. Hopefully it’ll break and Atlanta can pick up where the Phillies left off.
Thursday, September 26, 7:20 pm E.T., Bally Sports South
LHP Max Fried (28 GS, 165.2 IP, 82 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 23.0 K%, 8.0 BB%)
This is more-than-likely going to be Max Fried’s final regular season start as a Braves pitcher and it really is fitting that it’s coming in a big game where they’re going to need him to be Maximum Fried if they want to have any serious hope of making the Postseason. Fried has had a rollercoaster of a season on his way to picking up 3.0 fWAR on the season so far.
The month of September has been a prime example of the Max Fried experience here in 2024. He started the month by pitching seven innings against the Blue Jays where he only gave up one unearned run while striking out eight. He then went up to Washington and got tagged for four runs and followed that up with the Dodgers getting him for three runs. He then went down to Miami and only gave up two runs (one earned) against the Marlins. The good news is that in each of those starts, he went at least six innings and he’s made it at least five in each of his past nine starts. Again, the Braves are going to need Fried to be at his best in this one — especially if he wants to extend his time with the Braves with a Postseason run.
LHP Sean Manaea (31 GS, 178.0 IP, 83 ERA-, 93 FIP-, 25.5 K%, 8.5 BB%)
Once again, the Mets are surely happy that one of their recent acquisitions has picked this season to. have one of the best seasons of their respective careers. Sean Manaea is having his best season since 2021. In terms of ERA- and FIP, he’s having probably the best season of his career when it comes to keeping both of those stats in particular pretty low. He’s lived up to the expectations that the Mets had for him when they signed him and they’ll surely be hoping that he can pitch them into the Postseason in this game in particular.
Interestingly enough, the Braves still have yet to see Manaea here in 2024 and Atlanta hasn’t faced him since August 26 of last year, which is when he came in as a reliever for the Giants and struck out five Braves batters over just 3.2 innings of relief. Meanwhile here in 2024, Manaea is coming off of three straight starts where he made it into the seventh inning. He only gave up one run in those first two starts and then gave up three against the Phillies in his last outing. He’s peaking at the right time and the Braves will have to put a stop to it if they’re going to have a shot to make sure their chances of going to the Postseason are still alive once this series is done.
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