<img alt="Los Angeles Dodgers v Miami Marlins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eLM4yUXxgOP4fVP7_XX7wNdyQ2c=/0x0:5322x3548/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73598548/2173206854.0.jpg">
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Atlanta scored 15 runs on the Reds on Thursday. The Marlins gave up 20 to the Dodgers later on on the same day. These two teams are heading in vastly different directions The Atlanta Braves are coming into South Beach to take on the Miami Marlins for a three-game series that’ll end their final road trip of the regular season. They’re entering this series in the same position that they started the series in Cincinnati in: They need to rack up the wins, and they need some help. Both the Mets and Diamondbacks started off their respective four-game series with wins, so the onus is already on Atlanta to make sure that they can keep pace in order to pounce on any mistake that those two teams may make.
They’ll be facing a Miami Marlins team that was busy serving as the Washington Generals to Shohei Ohtani’s Harlem Globetrotters act. Ohtani delivered one of the greatest single-game performances that you will ever see as the Dodgers cruised to a 20-4 beatdown of Miami. It’s basically out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Marlins, as they’ll be going from getting beat by 16 to facing a team that scored 15 on their way out of Cincinnati. Oof.
The Marlins have surged past the Rockies for the worst record in the National League and unless they suddenly get hot, they look like a pretty good bet to finish with 100 losses on the season. So far this month (heading into Thursday’s action), they have a team wRC+ of 84 with a slash line of .252/.304/.365 with .293 wOBA. That level of production is good for 21st-best in all of Baseball during September and their pitching hasn’t been much better, either. In September, Miami’s pitching staff has a 115 ERA- and a 105 FIP-, with a 104 xFIP- to boot. They’re 6-11 this month and have gone 2-8 in their last ten games, which is to say this is a bad team that’s currently on a cold streak. The Braves absolutely have to take advantage of this situation this weekend.
Friday, September 20, 7:10 pm E.T., Bally Sports Southeast
RHP Charlie Morton (28 GS, 155 IP, 96 ERA-, 109 FIP-, 24.5 K%, 9.0 BB%)
Morton has been giving the Braves exactly what they needed here in September, as he’s been pretty reliable in helping to keep Atlanta in the games that he’s started. Now granted, “reliable” has not translated to “easy to watch” as he’s certainly had his moments where he’s been walking a tightrope. With that being said, he hasn’t fallen off of the tightrope yet and it’d be tough to imagine it happening on Friday night.
Charlie will be looking to set the record straight when it comes to loanDepot Park, at least. While Morton held the Marlins to just one unearned run in his most recent start against Miami, he got lit up when he made his most recent start in Miami back on April 14. The only positive from that doomed start is that Morton struck out eight batters, so here’s hoping that this at least stays the same and Morton can keep the Marlins off of the scoreboard this time round.
RHP Valente Bellozo (11 GS, 58.1 IP, 88 ERA-, 137 FIP-, 15.6 K%, 7.6 BB%)
So, the good news for Valente Bellozo is that his cutter is pretty tough to deal with. His cutter has a Batting Average of .200 against it and an xBA of .204 against it with a Put Away percentage of 27.3, so it’s a very solid pitch in that regard. With that being said, it hasn’t helped to keep him completely out of trouble.
He does have one great start under his belt, which is when he pitched seven shutout innings against the Phillies on August 13 and that was after he made it into the sixth inning against the Reds with a shutout as well. Still, it’s been pretty rough for him since then. He had a two-start run between August 24 and August 29 where he gave up 12 runs and walked seven batters over 8.2 innings. He’s given up at least three runs in each of his past two starts and he did give up two runs over five innings when the Braves saw him in August. Atlanta won that game and hopefully that’ll be the case on Friday night as well.
Saturday, September 21, 4:10 pm E.T., Bally Sports Southeast
LHP Max Fried (27 GS, 159.2 IP, 84 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 22.9 K%, 8.2 BB%)
This will be the fourth time that the Marlins have seen Max Fried so far this season and it’s been a tale of two halves of the season. All the way back in the good ol’ days of April when it seemed like this team was going to be a shoo-in for the Postseason, Fried took care of business against the Marlins. He went 6.1 innings and only gave up one run on April 12, then he saw them again 11 days later and pitched an absolute gem of a complete game shutout.
Those really were the good ol’ days, right? Anyways, things came crashing back down to earth once the Marlins came to town on August 4. That was Fried’s first start in a return from injury and it was clear that there were some cobwebs that needed to be shaken out. Fried gave up a whopping five runs on four hits and five walks against the Marlins. In fact, Fried’s walk rate has been up a full point since his return in August (9.1 BB%) — his strikeout rate is also up (25.6 percent since August 4) but the walks have definitely been a bit of a concern. Hopefully we’ll see a version of Max Fried that looks more like the one we saw in April instead of the vevrsion that the Marlins got to see last month.
TBA
The Marlins have yet to announce their starter for Saturday’s game but it’s looking likely that it’ll be Darren McCaughan. The 28-year-old right-hander made his last start on this past Tuesday, which is when the Dodgers got him for five runs over just 3.2 innings. He went five innings on September 12 against the Nationals and gave up three runs, which was arguably his best start of the season. If it is indeed McCaughan then this is an opportunity that the Braves have to take advantage of, as McCaughan will be entering this game with a 182 ERA- and 167 FIP- on the season, giving him career averages of well over 100 in that department.
Sunday, September 22, 1:40 pm E.T., Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network (out-of-market only)
RHP Grant Holmes (5 GS, 58.2 IP, 92 ERA-, 79 FIP-, 22.7 K%, 5.3 BB%)
All you can really say about Grant Holmes, really, is that he’s been doing just about what you would ask of a pitcher like him being thrown into this position. He only went four innings but he also limited the Reds to just two runs while he was out there. It certainly wasn’t Holmes’ best start of the season but he kept Atlanta in position to win (and they were up by three when he left that game, which has usually been a solid lead for his mates in the bullpen to handle), so he was doing his job.
With that being said, there’s certainly room for improvement. He does have a start against the Marlins this season and that didn’t go grate, as he went 4.2 innings and got into the fifth but gave up three runs while he was out there. Everybody can afford to step their game up and this would be a great time for Holmes to deliver another deep start.
RHP Adam Oller (6 GS, 31.2 IP, 128 ERA-, 134 FIP-, 17.9 K%, 9.8 BB%)
Adam Oller has thrown 125.2 career innings so far between the Oakland A’s and the Miami Marlins. Over those 34 appearances and 21 starts, Oller has a career ERA- and FIP- of 170 and 163, respectively. He’s struck out 14.8 percent of batters and he’s walked 12 percent of all batters that he’s faced. He’s averaging nearly two homers per nine innings as well, though all of these numbers are a tick down here in 2024.
With that being said, he’s still produced a grand total of -1.7 fWAR for his career so far. I’m saying all of that to say that if the Braves can’t get anything going against Oller then they will be in serious trouble on Sunday. Oller did deliver one of the best starts of his career earlier this season when he shut out the Giants over six innings back on August 30, though, so he is capable of getting the job done. His breaking balls are pretty tricky to deal with (especially his slurve/curveball), so it’s not like he’s just going to roll over and capitulate for Atlanta here. With that being said, this is another situation where the Braves absolutely must take advantage of the pitching matchup that they’re being given here.
<img alt="Los Angeles Dodgers v Miami Marlins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eLM4yUXxgOP4fVP7_XX7wNdyQ2c=/0x0:5322x3548/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73598548/2173206854.0.jpg">
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Atlanta scored 15 runs on the Reds on Thursday. The Marlins gave up 20 to the Dodgers later on on the same day. These two teams are heading in vastly different directions The Atlanta Braves are coming into South Beach to take on the Miami Marlins for a three-game series that’ll end their final road trip of the regular season. They’re entering this series in the same position that they started the series in Cincinnati in: They need to rack up the wins, and they need some help. Both the Mets and Diamondbacks started off their respective four-game series with wins, so the onus is already on Atlanta to make sure that they can keep pace in order to pounce on any mistake that those two teams may make.
They’ll be facing a Miami Marlins team that was busy serving as the Washington Generals to Shohei Ohtani’s Harlem Globetrotters act. Ohtani delivered one of the greatest single-game performances that you will ever see as the Dodgers cruised to a 20-4 beatdown of Miami. It’s basically out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Marlins, as they’ll be going from getting beat by 16 to facing a team that scored 15 on their way out of Cincinnati. Oof.
The Marlins have surged past the Rockies for the worst record in the National League and unless they suddenly get hot, they look like a pretty good bet to finish with 100 losses on the season. So far this month (heading into Thursday’s action), they have a team wRC+ of 84 with a slash line of .252/.304/.365 with .293 wOBA. That level of production is good for 21st-best in all of Baseball during September and their pitching hasn’t been much better, either. In September, Miami’s pitching staff has a 115 ERA- and a 105 FIP-, with a 104 xFIP- to boot. They’re 6-11 this month and have gone 2-8 in their last ten games, which is to say this is a bad team that’s currently on a cold streak. The Braves absolutely have to take advantage of this situation this weekend.
Friday, September 20, 7:10 pm E.T., Bally Sports Southeast
RHP Charlie Morton (28 GS, 155 IP, 96 ERA-, 109 FIP-, 24.5 K%, 9.0 BB%)
Morton has been giving the Braves exactly what they needed here in September, as he’s been pretty reliable in helping to keep Atlanta in the games that he’s started. Now granted, “reliable” has not translated to “easy to watch” as he’s certainly had his moments where he’s been walking a tightrope. With that being said, he hasn’t fallen off of the tightrope yet and it’d be tough to imagine it happening on Friday night.
Charlie will be looking to set the record straight when it comes to loanDepot Park, at least. While Morton held the Marlins to just one unearned run in his most recent start against Miami, he got lit up when he made his most recent start in Miami back on April 14. The only positive from that doomed start is that Morton struck out eight batters, so here’s hoping that this at least stays the same and Morton can keep the Marlins off of the scoreboard this time round.
RHP Valente Bellozo (11 GS, 58.1 IP, 88 ERA-, 137 FIP-, 15.6 K%, 7.6 BB%)
So, the good news for Valente Bellozo is that his cutter is pretty tough to deal with. His cutter has a Batting Average of .200 against it and an xBA of .204 against it with a Put Away percentage of 27.3, so it’s a very solid pitch in that regard. With that being said, it hasn’t helped to keep him completely out of trouble.
He does have one great start under his belt, which is when he pitched seven shutout innings against the Phillies on August 13 and that was after he made it into the sixth inning against the Reds with a shutout as well. Still, it’s been pretty rough for him since then. He had a two-start run between August 24 and August 29 where he gave up 12 runs and walked seven batters over 8.2 innings. He’s given up at least three runs in each of his past two starts and he did give up two runs over five innings when the Braves saw him in August. Atlanta won that game and hopefully that’ll be the case on Friday night as well.
Saturday, September 21, 4:10 pm E.T., Bally Sports Southeast
LHP Max Fried (27 GS, 159.2 IP, 84 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 22.9 K%, 8.2 BB%)
This will be the fourth time that the Marlins have seen Max Fried so far this season and it’s been a tale of two halves of the season. All the way back in the good ol’ days of April when it seemed like this team was going to be a shoo-in for the Postseason, Fried took care of business against the Marlins. He went 6.1 innings and only gave up one run on April 12, then he saw them again 11 days later and pitched an absolute gem of a complete game shutout.
Those really were the good ol’ days, right? Anyways, things came crashing back down to earth once the Marlins came to town on August 4. That was Fried’s first start in a return from injury and it was clear that there were some cobwebs that needed to be shaken out. Fried gave up a whopping five runs on four hits and five walks against the Marlins. In fact, Fried’s walk rate has been up a full point since his return in August (9.1 BB%) — his strikeout rate is also up (25.6 percent since August 4) but the walks have definitely been a bit of a concern. Hopefully we’ll see a version of Max Fried that looks more like the one we saw in April instead of the vevrsion that the Marlins got to see last month.
TBA
The Marlins have yet to announce their starter for Saturday’s game but it’s looking likely that it’ll be Darren McCaughan. The 28-year-old right-hander made his last start on this past Tuesday, which is when the Dodgers got him for five runs over just 3.2 innings. He went five innings on September 12 against the Nationals and gave up three runs, which was arguably his best start of the season. If it is indeed McCaughan then this is an opportunity that the Braves have to take advantage of, as McCaughan will be entering this game with a 182 ERA- and 167 FIP- on the season, giving him career averages of well over 100 in that department.
Sunday, September 22, 1:40 pm E.T., Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network (out-of-market only)
RHP Grant Holmes (5 GS, 58.2 IP, 92 ERA-, 79 FIP-, 22.7 K%, 5.3 BB%)
All you can really say about Grant Holmes, really, is that he’s been doing just about what you would ask of a pitcher like him being thrown into this position. He only went four innings but he also limited the Reds to just two runs while he was out there. It certainly wasn’t Holmes’ best start of the season but he kept Atlanta in position to win (and they were up by three when he left that game, which has usually been a solid lead for his mates in the bullpen to handle), so he was doing his job.
With that being said, there’s certainly room for improvement. He does have a start against the Marlins this season and that didn’t go grate, as he went 4.2 innings and got into the fifth but gave up three runs while he was out there. Everybody can afford to step their game up and this would be a great time for Holmes to deliver another deep start.
RHP Adam Oller (6 GS, 31.2 IP, 128 ERA-, 134 FIP-, 17.9 K%, 9.8 BB%)
Adam Oller has thrown 125.2 career innings so far between the Oakland A’s and the Miami Marlins. Over those 34 appearances and 21 starts, Oller has a career ERA- and FIP- of 170 and 163, respectively. He’s struck out 14.8 percent of batters and he’s walked 12 percent of all batters that he’s faced. He’s averaging nearly two homers per nine innings as well, though all of these numbers are a tick down here in 2024.
With that being said, he’s still produced a grand total of -1.7 fWAR for his career so far. I’m saying all of that to say that if the Braves can’t get anything going against Oller then they will be in serious trouble on Sunday. Oller did deliver one of the best starts of his career earlier this season when he shut out the Giants over six innings back on August 30, though, so he is capable of getting the job done. His breaking balls are pretty tricky to deal with (especially his slurve/curveball), so it’s not like he’s just going to roll over and capitulate for Atlanta here. With that being said, this is another situation where the Braves absolutely must take advantage of the pitching matchup that they’re being given here.
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