<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Cincinnati Reds" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PY-RsD6n0RoXV7u_JpMSuDS2Z20=/147x0:4875x3152/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73598469/2173015408.0.jpg">
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Braves’ pursuit of a playoff spot stalls in Cincinnati despite taking two out of three The Braves took two of three from the Reds, finally beating them twice with offensive explosions after dropping their first four matchups between these two clubs. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to actually nudge them closer to a playoff spot, and their season basically now hangs in the balance with every remaining game.
Lower margin for shenanigans, but shenanigans persist
The Braves have played 153 games. They’ve won 83 of them. They’ve also out-wOBAed their opponents in 83 of them. However, they’ve won just 73 of those 83 games, which is a little lower than you’d expect. The incidence of losses where they have better offensive outcomes than their opponents has also been laddered such that it’s happened more frequently as the slack available for faffing around has diminished. The Braves had no such losses in April, two in May, one in June, and one in July. But, then they ran into four such losses in about two-and-a-half weeks in August, which really tanked their position, and they already have two in September so far... including the loss in Game 1 of this series to the Reds.
It’s hard to say that the Braves don’t deserve a loss in which a fielder flubs an easy play, because zombified roster filler or not, you shouldn’t be flubbing easy plays. But, not all such flubs tend to directly lead to losses, and that’s where the Braves have really been stung: they can outplay their opponents in quantity, but somehow the leverage of their screw-ups (and/or the opponent’s positive contributions) tends to upend the rest of the game.
That loss alone chunked about eight percent off the Braves’ playoff odds. They’ve declined about two percent since, as despite their own victories, the Mets and Diamondbacks haven’t lost since then, either. Consequently, the Braves have no real margin for error anymore: unless one of the teams ahead of them ends collapsing immediately, another loss, whether deserved or not, is probably going to finally toast this team.
But hey, the offense enjoyed their time in Cincinnati
The Braves posted a .557 wOBA in Thursday’s win, their highest single-game total of the season. The other two games had wOBAs that ranked 16th and 48th so far (with the loss coming in the 16th-ranked game). The three games also included the team’s 16th- and 33rd-highest xwOBAs for a single game.
The Braves will probably appreciate, to some extent, the padding of offensive stats that happened in this series. Jorge Soler raised his Braves wRC+ nine points, from 126 to 135, over three games. Similar increases were made by Ramon Laureano (six points), Matt Olson (six points), and Michael Harris II (nine points). Marcell Ozuna’s xwOBA is now back above .400, Soler and Olson are back above .340, and though Harris has a horrendous xwOBA underperformance, his xwOBA is up to .333, basically consistent with his rookie season.
Pierce Johnson’s issues continue
Pierce Johnson giving up the two-run homer to Spencer Steer was probably one of the most damaging single plays as far as the Braves’ pursuit of a playoff spot goes, because it turned a lead into a deficit, one that the Braves didn’t end up overcoming.
Like most relievers, Johnson has had an up and down season, as he was nails in April, but then struggled after missing some time with an elbow issue, being saved only by HR/FB stuff. He then rebounded with an insanely good July, but has been pretty bad since. In his last 17 outings, he has a horrendous 129/142/124 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-), has given up three of his five homers yielded on the season, and WPA-wise, has five shutdowns to four meltdowns. Prior to this stretch, including his not-so-good pitching in May and June, he had nine shutdowns to five meltdowns and a 66/67/78 line.
The Braves are unlikely to change their bullpen pecking order at this point, so Johnson needs to rein in the issues, and fast, or else the Braves could find themselves with more problems without the time on the schedule to rectify them.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Cincinnati Reds" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PY-RsD6n0RoXV7u_JpMSuDS2Z20=/147x0:4875x3152/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73598469/2173015408.0.jpg">
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Braves’ pursuit of a playoff spot stalls in Cincinnati despite taking two out of three The Braves took two of three from the Reds, finally beating them twice with offensive explosions after dropping their first four matchups between these two clubs. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to actually nudge them closer to a playoff spot, and their season basically now hangs in the balance with every remaining game.
Lower margin for shenanigans, but shenanigans persist
The Braves have played 153 games. They’ve won 83 of them. They’ve also out-wOBAed their opponents in 83 of them. However, they’ve won just 73 of those 83 games, which is a little lower than you’d expect. The incidence of losses where they have better offensive outcomes than their opponents has also been laddered such that it’s happened more frequently as the slack available for faffing around has diminished. The Braves had no such losses in April, two in May, one in June, and one in July. But, then they ran into four such losses in about two-and-a-half weeks in August, which really tanked their position, and they already have two in September so far... including the loss in Game 1 of this series to the Reds.
It’s hard to say that the Braves don’t deserve a loss in which a fielder flubs an easy play, because zombified roster filler or not, you shouldn’t be flubbing easy plays. But, not all such flubs tend to directly lead to losses, and that’s where the Braves have really been stung: they can outplay their opponents in quantity, but somehow the leverage of their screw-ups (and/or the opponent’s positive contributions) tends to upend the rest of the game.
That loss alone chunked about eight percent off the Braves’ playoff odds. They’ve declined about two percent since, as despite their own victories, the Mets and Diamondbacks haven’t lost since then, either. Consequently, the Braves have no real margin for error anymore: unless one of the teams ahead of them ends collapsing immediately, another loss, whether deserved or not, is probably going to finally toast this team.
But hey, the offense enjoyed their time in Cincinnati
The Braves posted a .557 wOBA in Thursday’s win, their highest single-game total of the season. The other two games had wOBAs that ranked 16th and 48th so far (with the loss coming in the 16th-ranked game). The three games also included the team’s 16th- and 33rd-highest xwOBAs for a single game.
The Braves will probably appreciate, to some extent, the padding of offensive stats that happened in this series. Jorge Soler raised his Braves wRC+ nine points, from 126 to 135, over three games. Similar increases were made by Ramon Laureano (six points), Matt Olson (six points), and Michael Harris II (nine points). Marcell Ozuna’s xwOBA is now back above .400, Soler and Olson are back above .340, and though Harris has a horrendous xwOBA underperformance, his xwOBA is up to .333, basically consistent with his rookie season.
Pierce Johnson’s issues continue
Pierce Johnson giving up the two-run homer to Spencer Steer was probably one of the most damaging single plays as far as the Braves’ pursuit of a playoff spot goes, because it turned a lead into a deficit, one that the Braves didn’t end up overcoming.
Like most relievers, Johnson has had an up and down season, as he was nails in April, but then struggled after missing some time with an elbow issue, being saved only by HR/FB stuff. He then rebounded with an insanely good July, but has been pretty bad since. In his last 17 outings, he has a horrendous 129/142/124 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-), has given up three of his five homers yielded on the season, and WPA-wise, has five shutdowns to four meltdowns. Prior to this stretch, including his not-so-good pitching in May and June, he had nine shutdowns to five meltdowns and a 66/67/78 line.
The Braves are unlikely to change their bullpen pecking order at this point, so Johnson needs to rein in the issues, and fast, or else the Braves could find themselves with more problems without the time on the schedule to rectify them.
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