<img alt="Chicago Cubs v Los Angeles Dodgers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bJ50jZuiahDPN-7KcpdOX9RC62o=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73583116/1821547017.0.jpg">
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
If the Braves are going to get back on the Postseason track, they’ll have to do it Shohei Ohtani and the rest of this star-studded squad. The Atlanta Braves are coming off of a stretch of games where they faced the Rockies, Blue Jays, the Reds for one game and the Nationals for two games. They went 5-4 in that span and are currently back on the outside looking in of the Postseason picture. If they want to stay alive, they’ll have to make something happen over the next four nights in order to keep pace with the three Wild Card teams who continue to get their respective jobs done.
With that being said, the Braves have a tall task ahead of them since they’ll have to deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the next few nights. While this version of the Dodgers isn’t exactly the juggernaut that we’ve grown used to facing over the past few years now (and granted, nobody in baseball is looking like a juggernaut this season), this is still a very good team with a ton of talent at their disposal. They’re tied with the Diamondbacks for the NL lead in team wRC+ (115), they lead the NL in home runs (204) and Isolated Power (.185), and they only trail Arizona in MLB when it comes to team wOBA (.332). That type of stuff tends to happen when you have guys like Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts and none other than potential 50/50 club member Shohei Ohtani all wearing your uniform.
As imposing as this team’s lineup can be on any given night, this isn’t a perfect team. Their pitching has been slightly-above-to-simply being average so far this season, as evidenced by their collective 96 ERA-, 102 FIP- and 100 xFIP- as a pitching staff. A lot of this has to do with the fact that they’ve had to deal with a bunch of injuries to their starters over the course of this season. Two of their best starters (Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone) are both currently on the shelf, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is only recently returning from a long-term injury and Clayton Kershaw’s injury woes have been well documented. It hasn’t hurt them enough to where they’re worrying about their chances of winning yet another divisional title but it’s definitely something to watch out for as they gear up for October.
Friday, September 13, 7:20 pm E.T., Apple TV+
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (17 GS, 97.2 IP, 90 ERA-, 83 FIP-, 26.7 K%, 4.7 BB%)
With that being said, if Atlanta’s been good for anything this season then it’s been their pitching. Spencer Scwhellenbach has been a shining star rookie for Atlanta this season, though it is apparent that he’s starting to hit the proverbial rookie wall. He gave up a whopping six runs (three earned) in his start last weekend against the Blue Jays and that was after his start against the Phillies was one of those instances where things were going great right up until they weren’t. this will be a pretty big test for Schwellenbach when it comes to bouncing back, though he’s been pretty good at doing so here in 2024.
RHP Landon Knack (11 GS, 54 IP, 74 ERA-, 109 FIP-, 24.0 K%, 6.0 BB%)
That’s right, folks: We’re getting a rookie matchup on Friday night. Knack has been used as a fill-in for most of this season and he’s been pressed into action recently due to the injuries that have hit LA’s pitching staff. He’s been perfectly fine for the Dodgers so far tis season, as his worst start came on July 4 against the Diamondbacks when he gave up four runs over 4.1 innings. That start has been an outlier more than anything, as he’s given up two runs or less in each of his three most recent appearances so far.
Knack will be bringing a four-pitch arsenal of a four-seamer, a slider, a changeup and a curveball and he’s been leaning on his four-seamer while peppering in the breaking balls on occasion. His changeup has been pretty effective, as opposing batters are sporting a batting average of .139 and an xBA of .196 and he’ll be going with either that or his four-seamer as his put Away pitch. His ERA-/FIP- discrepancy seems to indicate that he’s riding a bit of good fortune and his 1.67 HR/9 rate sure is interesting to look at, so that’ll be something to watch out for while he’s out there.
Saturday, September 14, 7:20 pm E.T., Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network (out-of-market)
LHP Chris Sale (27 GS, 166.2 IP, 57 ERA-, 51 FIP-, 32.4 K%, 5.3 BB%)
If things continue to go south as far as the team is concerned, then the big positive story of the season will be Chris Sale’s renaissance campaign here in 2024. We’ve been over the stats before but it’s still fun to look at it. He’s leading the league in ERA-, he’s got a 10 point lead in FIP- and he’s also leading in xFIP- as well. Plain and simple, Chris Sale has been the best pitcher in the National League this season and it would be very tough to think about where this team would be if they didn’t have him going every five days, fully healthy and firing on all cylinders like he has been this season.
RHP Jack Flaherty (25 GS, 148 IP, 71 ERA-, 79 FIP-, 30.8 K%, 5.0 BB%)
It is extremely like that we’re going to have a pitcher’s duel on our hands on Saturday night since Jack Flaherty has been excellent so far this season. He formed a fearsome duo with Tarik Skubal in Detroit to start this season and ever since he got traded to the Dodgers, he’s essentially picked up where he left off. His ERA- in Detroit was 73 and his FIP- was 76; Meanwhile, his ERA- in LA has been 64 and his FIP- is 87, so he’s definitely been keeping up the high performance no matter what uniform he’s been wearing here in 2024.
It’s been a very encouraging bounce-back for Flaherty, who had to go through both injuries and underperformance in recent years which led to him bouncing around a few teams in a relatively short amount of time. This will be Flaherty’s first time seeing the Braves on the mound since 2019 and I’m not even going to begin to seriously compare something that happened pre-pandemic to what’s going on today. He did give up three runs over six innings in his last start at Truist Park, so there’s that.
Sunday, September 15, 7:10 pm E.T., ESPN
RHP Charlie Morton (27 GS, 149 IP, 98 ERA-, 111 FIP-, 24.5 K%, 9.0 BB%)
Say what you want about Charlie Morton and his cherry bomb tendencies here in 2024 but it certainly wasn’t his fault that the Braves took the loss this past Monday. Morton made it into the seventh inning and only gave up one run on six hits and two walks while he was out there. It was the type of Morton performance where he was clearly walking a tightrope but managed to keep it balanced in order to ensure that Atlanta’s offense still had a chance to win. The obvious hope at this point is that he’s turned it around enough to where he can be totally relied upon here in the final portion of the regular season.
He last saw the Dodgers back on May 3, which is when he went six innings and only gave up two runs in Dodger Stadium. I’d have to imagine that the Braves would gladly take another performance like that where he only gives up a pair of runs. Once again, it’ll be on Atlanta’s offense to figure something out against the opposing pitcher if Morton does indeed keep LA’s offense (mostly) quiet for the second time this season.
RHP Walker Buehler (13 GS, 59 IP, 146 ERA-, 146 FIP-, 17.9 K%, 7.7 BB%)
This is Buehler’s return season from Tommy John surgery and he’s certainly had a rough go of it so far. He’s sitting on -0.4 fWAR for the season, his strikeout percentage is way down from where it usually is, his walk percentage is as high as it’s ever been in a full season of his and he’s been giving up 2.29 HR/9 so far this season. He only has one scoreless outing under his belt this season and he’s given up at least three runs in 11 of the 13 starts that he’s made so far this season.
All signs are pointing towards this being a prime opportunity for Atlanta’s lineup to make something happen and potentially have a big night. As we all know, that type of thing is much easier said than done even in the best of circumstances — that’s especially the case considering how inconsistent Atlanta’s offense has been this season. Still, Walker Buehler has been largely underwhelming for the Dodgers so far this season and it would be very disappointing if the Braves made him look like the Buehler of old in front of the entire nation on ESPN.
Monday, September 16, 7:20 pm E.T., Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network (out-of-market)
LHP Max Fried (26 GS, 153.2 IP, 83 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 22.6 K%, 8.0 BB%)
Yep, this is one of those weird wrap-around series where a weekend series ends on a Monday night instead of a Sunday afternoon. Fried will certainly be in search of a bounce-back start after the Nationals tagged him for a 11 hits and four runs earlier this week. Those 11 hits were tied for the most that Fried has given up all season and it’s pretty obvious that he’ll be trying to make sure that he doesn’t get close to giving up that number of runs against the Dodgers in this series finale. For what it’s worth, Fried has gone at least six innings in his past three starts and made it through seven in two of those starts as well. If he can go deep and keep the runs at a premium then the Braves could definitely have a shot at this one.
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (15 GS, 78 IP, 71 ERA-, 61 FIP-, 29.1 K%, 5.4 BB%)
LA’s prized pitching acquisition from this past offseason has had a very impressive 2024 campaign so far. The only big issue is that he ended up missing nearly three months due to a strained rotator cuff, which was a crying shame for the Dodgers since he had been excellent before the injury happened. He returned on September 10 against the Cubs and while he only went four innings, he struck out eight batters and only gave up four hits and a run while he was out there, so there’s that.
While Yamamoto figures to be a very formidable opponent, the one soft spot for him appears to be that he’s at least a little prone to giving up a lot of Hard-Hit contact and barrels as well. Believe it or not, the Braves still lead baseball in Hard-Hit percentage (42.6 percent) and they lead the National League in Barrels per Plate Appearance percentage (7.1 percent) as well. If all goes well, hopefully some hard contact against Yamamoto can result in some big time production for the Braves. It’ll certainly be a tough task but it won’t be impossible, either.
<img alt="Chicago Cubs v Los Angeles Dodgers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bJ50jZuiahDPN-7KcpdOX9RC62o=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73583116/1821547017.0.jpg">
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
If the Braves are going to get back on the Postseason track, they’ll have to do it Shohei Ohtani and the rest of this star-studded squad. The Atlanta Braves are coming off of a stretch of games where they faced the Rockies, Blue Jays, the Reds for one game and the Nationals for two games. They went 5-4 in that span and are currently back on the outside looking in of the Postseason picture. If they want to stay alive, they’ll have to make something happen over the next four nights in order to keep pace with the three Wild Card teams who continue to get their respective jobs done.
With that being said, the Braves have a tall task ahead of them since they’ll have to deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the next few nights. While this version of the Dodgers isn’t exactly the juggernaut that we’ve grown used to facing over the past few years now (and granted, nobody in baseball is looking like a juggernaut this season), this is still a very good team with a ton of talent at their disposal. They’re tied with the Diamondbacks for the NL lead in team wRC+ (115), they lead the NL in home runs (204) and Isolated Power (.185), and they only trail Arizona in MLB when it comes to team wOBA (.332). That type of stuff tends to happen when you have guys like Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts and none other than potential 50/50 club member Shohei Ohtani all wearing your uniform.
As imposing as this team’s lineup can be on any given night, this isn’t a perfect team. Their pitching has been slightly-above-to-simply being average so far this season, as evidenced by their collective 96 ERA-, 102 FIP- and 100 xFIP- as a pitching staff. A lot of this has to do with the fact that they’ve had to deal with a bunch of injuries to their starters over the course of this season. Two of their best starters (Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone) are both currently on the shelf, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is only recently returning from a long-term injury and Clayton Kershaw’s injury woes have been well documented. It hasn’t hurt them enough to where they’re worrying about their chances of winning yet another divisional title but it’s definitely something to watch out for as they gear up for October.
Friday, September 13, 7:20 pm E.T., Apple TV+
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (17 GS, 97.2 IP, 90 ERA-, 83 FIP-, 26.7 K%, 4.7 BB%)
With that being said, if Atlanta’s been good for anything this season then it’s been their pitching. Spencer Scwhellenbach has been a shining star rookie for Atlanta this season, though it is apparent that he’s starting to hit the proverbial rookie wall. He gave up a whopping six runs (three earned) in his start last weekend against the Blue Jays and that was after his start against the Phillies was one of those instances where things were going great right up until they weren’t. this will be a pretty big test for Schwellenbach when it comes to bouncing back, though he’s been pretty good at doing so here in 2024.
RHP Landon Knack (11 GS, 54 IP, 74 ERA-, 109 FIP-, 24.0 K%, 6.0 BB%)
That’s right, folks: We’re getting a rookie matchup on Friday night. Knack has been used as a fill-in for most of this season and he’s been pressed into action recently due to the injuries that have hit LA’s pitching staff. He’s been perfectly fine for the Dodgers so far tis season, as his worst start came on July 4 against the Diamondbacks when he gave up four runs over 4.1 innings. That start has been an outlier more than anything, as he’s given up two runs or less in each of his three most recent appearances so far.
Knack will be bringing a four-pitch arsenal of a four-seamer, a slider, a changeup and a curveball and he’s been leaning on his four-seamer while peppering in the breaking balls on occasion. His changeup has been pretty effective, as opposing batters are sporting a batting average of .139 and an xBA of .196 and he’ll be going with either that or his four-seamer as his put Away pitch. His ERA-/FIP- discrepancy seems to indicate that he’s riding a bit of good fortune and his 1.67 HR/9 rate sure is interesting to look at, so that’ll be something to watch out for while he’s out there.
Saturday, September 14, 7:20 pm E.T., Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network (out-of-market)
LHP Chris Sale (27 GS, 166.2 IP, 57 ERA-, 51 FIP-, 32.4 K%, 5.3 BB%)
If things continue to go south as far as the team is concerned, then the big positive story of the season will be Chris Sale’s renaissance campaign here in 2024. We’ve been over the stats before but it’s still fun to look at it. He’s leading the league in ERA-, he’s got a 10 point lead in FIP- and he’s also leading in xFIP- as well. Plain and simple, Chris Sale has been the best pitcher in the National League this season and it would be very tough to think about where this team would be if they didn’t have him going every five days, fully healthy and firing on all cylinders like he has been this season.
RHP Jack Flaherty (25 GS, 148 IP, 71 ERA-, 79 FIP-, 30.8 K%, 5.0 BB%)
It is extremely like that we’re going to have a pitcher’s duel on our hands on Saturday night since Jack Flaherty has been excellent so far this season. He formed a fearsome duo with Tarik Skubal in Detroit to start this season and ever since he got traded to the Dodgers, he’s essentially picked up where he left off. His ERA- in Detroit was 73 and his FIP- was 76; Meanwhile, his ERA- in LA has been 64 and his FIP- is 87, so he’s definitely been keeping up the high performance no matter what uniform he’s been wearing here in 2024.
It’s been a very encouraging bounce-back for Flaherty, who had to go through both injuries and underperformance in recent years which led to him bouncing around a few teams in a relatively short amount of time. This will be Flaherty’s first time seeing the Braves on the mound since 2019 and I’m not even going to begin to seriously compare something that happened pre-pandemic to what’s going on today. He did give up three runs over six innings in his last start at Truist Park, so there’s that.
Sunday, September 15, 7:10 pm E.T., ESPN
RHP Charlie Morton (27 GS, 149 IP, 98 ERA-, 111 FIP-, 24.5 K%, 9.0 BB%)
Say what you want about Charlie Morton and his cherry bomb tendencies here in 2024 but it certainly wasn’t his fault that the Braves took the loss this past Monday. Morton made it into the seventh inning and only gave up one run on six hits and two walks while he was out there. It was the type of Morton performance where he was clearly walking a tightrope but managed to keep it balanced in order to ensure that Atlanta’s offense still had a chance to win. The obvious hope at this point is that he’s turned it around enough to where he can be totally relied upon here in the final portion of the regular season.
He last saw the Dodgers back on May 3, which is when he went six innings and only gave up two runs in Dodger Stadium. I’d have to imagine that the Braves would gladly take another performance like that where he only gives up a pair of runs. Once again, it’ll be on Atlanta’s offense to figure something out against the opposing pitcher if Morton does indeed keep LA’s offense (mostly) quiet for the second time this season.
RHP Walker Buehler (13 GS, 59 IP, 146 ERA-, 146 FIP-, 17.9 K%, 7.7 BB%)
This is Buehler’s return season from Tommy John surgery and he’s certainly had a rough go of it so far. He’s sitting on -0.4 fWAR for the season, his strikeout percentage is way down from where it usually is, his walk percentage is as high as it’s ever been in a full season of his and he’s been giving up 2.29 HR/9 so far this season. He only has one scoreless outing under his belt this season and he’s given up at least three runs in 11 of the 13 starts that he’s made so far this season.
All signs are pointing towards this being a prime opportunity for Atlanta’s lineup to make something happen and potentially have a big night. As we all know, that type of thing is much easier said than done even in the best of circumstances — that’s especially the case considering how inconsistent Atlanta’s offense has been this season. Still, Walker Buehler has been largely underwhelming for the Dodgers so far this season and it would be very disappointing if the Braves made him look like the Buehler of old in front of the entire nation on ESPN.
Monday, September 16, 7:20 pm E.T., Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network (out-of-market)
LHP Max Fried (26 GS, 153.2 IP, 83 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 22.6 K%, 8.0 BB%)
Yep, this is one of those weird wrap-around series where a weekend series ends on a Monday night instead of a Sunday afternoon. Fried will certainly be in search of a bounce-back start after the Nationals tagged him for a 11 hits and four runs earlier this week. Those 11 hits were tied for the most that Fried has given up all season and it’s pretty obvious that he’ll be trying to make sure that he doesn’t get close to giving up that number of runs against the Dodgers in this series finale. For what it’s worth, Fried has gone at least six innings in his past three starts and made it through seven in two of those starts as well. If he can go deep and keep the runs at a premium then the Braves could definitely have a shot at this one.
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (15 GS, 78 IP, 71 ERA-, 61 FIP-, 29.1 K%, 5.4 BB%)
LA’s prized pitching acquisition from this past offseason has had a very impressive 2024 campaign so far. The only big issue is that he ended up missing nearly three months due to a strained rotator cuff, which was a crying shame for the Dodgers since he had been excellent before the injury happened. He returned on September 10 against the Cubs and while he only went four innings, he struck out eight batters and only gave up four hits and a run while he was out there, so there’s that.
While Yamamoto figures to be a very formidable opponent, the one soft spot for him appears to be that he’s at least a little prone to giving up a lot of Hard-Hit contact and barrels as well. Believe it or not, the Braves still lead baseball in Hard-Hit percentage (42.6 percent) and they lead the National League in Barrels per Plate Appearance percentage (7.1 percent) as well. If all goes well, hopefully some hard contact against Yamamoto can result in some big time production for the Braves. It’ll certainly be a tough task but it won’t be impossible, either.
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