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Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
The Braves need to make a few tweaks to the rotation schedule. Well, here we are. There’s exactly 3 weeks left in the 2024 regular season and the Braves are in a dog fight for a playoff spot. Through 143 games, the Braves are 78-65, tied for the last Wild Card spot with the Mets, 1.5 games back of the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card and 2.0 games back of the Padres for the first Wild Card. It’s 4 teams for 3 spots and exactly 21 days left to decide it.
The Atlanta Braves have 19 games and 2 off-days occupying those 21 days and given the futility of their offense, their pitching staff is going to have to carry them in those 19 games — specifically, the rotation. To do that, there are a couple of tweaks that the Braves can make to their pitching schedule to setup the ideal scenario for how the next 3 weeks play out.
First, let’s take a look at the rest of their schedule in September to understand what we’re working with here. Obviously you can cross through the first 8 days as those have already been played. We’re looking at everything after.
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MLB.com
Atlanta Braves September Schedule
Ok, so the makeup game against Cincinnati on Monday, a 2-game series at Washington, an off-day, a 4-game series at home against the Dodgers, then a 3-game series in Cincinnati, 3 games in Miami, another off-day, 3 games at home against the Mets and then 3 games against the Royals to end the season. Not the hardest schedule in the world but not the easiest either.
As things are currently scheduled Charlie Morton is set to pitch Monday vs CIN and Reynaldo Lopez and Max Fried are set for Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington. That's all well and good.
The Braves are then off on Thursday and this is where the first tweak needs to be made. If they stayed on the current schedule, Spencer Schwellenbach would pitch the first game of the Dodgers series on Friday night. They need to skip his start and have Chris Sale pitch Friday night’s game instead of Schwellenbach. I’ll explain why in a minute but Sale would be on regular rest on Friday because of the off-day on Thursday. Then have Morton, Lopez, and Fried finish out the Dodgers series and have Schwellenbach pitch the first game in Cincinnati. Then the last 5 games of that road trip, everyone stays on schedule, with Sale and Morton pitching the last 2 games against the Reds and Lopez and Fried the first 2 games in Miami. Schwellenbach then pitches the last game against Miami and you have the front of your rotation ready to go the next week against the Mets.
After the last game in Miami on Sunday, you then have an off-day on Monday, followed by the Mets coming to Truist Park that Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday of the last week of the season. This will certainly be the biggest series of the year, as the Mets and Braves are currently tied for the last playoff spot. Not only are the games massive because of the standings themselves, but the winner of this series will also win the head-to-head tiebreaker for the season, which is the first tiebreaker used if both team finished the regular season with the same record. These are massive, massive games.
For that series Sale would be lined up to pitch game 1 and then because of the off-day on Monday, you could skip Morton, and pitch Lopez and Fried in games 2 and 3 of that series, guaranteeing that in the biggest series of the year, you have your three best starting pitchers going. That’s the second tweak I would make: Skip Morton for that series. Again, because of the off-day on Monday, Lopez and Fried would both be on regular rest for that series. No one is pitching on short rest at any point in this plan.
But this alignment also has another benefit. Because Sale would be pitching Tuesday’s game versus the Mets, he would be lined up to pitch the last game of the season, that Sunday game against the Royals, if it turns out the Braves needed to win that game to make the playoffs. If it’s a win-or-go-home scenario, there’s no one you’d rather have pitching then the likely Cy Young winner. Plus, if that last game is meaningless (hopefully because you’re already in the postseason) you can call someone else up to pitch Sunday and Sale would be ready to go in Game 1 of a playoff series. This setup also means Sale pitches (potentially) four times over the last 19 games, maximizing his impact. He would obviously only pitch game 162 if the playoffs were on the line.
This is how I would set up the rotation the last three weeks of the season. And you're not really even skipping anyone. No one other than the five main starters are ever making a start with this plan. There are no Bryce Elder games. You’re essentially just using the two off-days to rearrange the rotation where Schwellenbach gets a short breather and skips the Dodgers, your four most veteran starters are the four facing LA, and most importantly your best three guys are pitching against the Mets in the biggest series of the year. Then there’s the added benefit of having Sale available in game 162 if you need to win that one to make the playoffs. Again, at no point is anyone pitching on short rest and at no point is anyone other than your best five guys starting a game. So there’s no risk to this plan but plenty of reward.
The Braves had a chance to rearrange their rotation right before they played the Phillies seven times in ten days. Doing so would’ve guaranteed Chris Sale pitched in two of those games. They chose not to do it and because of it, Sale didn't make a single start against Philadelphia in those seven games while the Braves faced Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola two times each. They went 3-4 over those seven and that ended the division race. They don’t need to make the same mistake again.
By skipping Schwellenbach before the Dodgers’ series and skipping Morton during the Mets’ series, the Braves can set things up exactly like a playoff series, with their best pitchers pitching in the biggest games. That doesn't mean it’ll will work of course, but all you can do is put the team in the best setup to be successful and hope things break your way. I think this is the best setup.
Here’s the schedule fully laid out in case anyone got lost somewhere along the way.
Monday Sep 9th, vs CIN - Morton
Tuesday Sep 10th at WAS - Lopez
Wednesday Sep 11th at WAS - Fried
Thursday Sep 12th - OFF
Friday Sep 13th vs LAD - Sale
Saturday Sep 14th vs LAD - Morton
Sunday Sep 15th vs LAD - Lopez
Monday Sep 16th vs LAD - Fried
Tuesday Sep 17th at CIN - Schwellenbach
Wednesday Sep 18th at CIN - Sale
Thursday Sep 19th at CIN - Morton
Friday Sep 20th at MIA - Lopez
Saturday Sep 21st at MIA - Fried
Sunday Sep 22nd at MIA - Schwellenbach
Monday Sep 23rd - OFF
Tuesday Sep 24th vs NYM - Sale
Wednesday Sep 25th vs NYM - Lopez
Thursday Sep 26th vs NYM - Fried
Friday Sep 27th vs KCR - Schwellenbach
Saturday Sep 28th vs KCR - Morton
Sunday Sep 29th vs KCR - Sale (available if needed)
<img alt="MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JW3y9oyeGf_2CNVNrT6VFObyGm0=/0x0:3617x2411/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73574119/usa_today_24187726.0.jpg">
Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
The Braves need to make a few tweaks to the rotation schedule. Well, here we are. There’s exactly 3 weeks left in the 2024 regular season and the Braves are in a dog fight for a playoff spot. Through 143 games, the Braves are 78-65, tied for the last Wild Card spot with the Mets, 1.5 games back of the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card and 2.0 games back of the Padres for the first Wild Card. It’s 4 teams for 3 spots and exactly 21 days left to decide it.
The Atlanta Braves have 19 games and 2 off-days occupying those 21 days and given the futility of their offense, their pitching staff is going to have to carry them in those 19 games — specifically, the rotation. To do that, there are a couple of tweaks that the Braves can make to their pitching schedule to setup the ideal scenario for how the next 3 weeks play out.
First, let’s take a look at the rest of their schedule in September to understand what we’re working with here. Obviously you can cross through the first 8 days as those have already been played. We’re looking at everything after.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FB5aSmVBzaFWf4MlLdFR-ohfAyM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25611410/Screen_Shot_2024_09_09_at_12.04.17_AM.png">
MLB.com
Atlanta Braves September Schedule
Ok, so the makeup game against Cincinnati on Monday, a 2-game series at Washington, an off-day, a 4-game series at home against the Dodgers, then a 3-game series in Cincinnati, 3 games in Miami, another off-day, 3 games at home against the Mets and then 3 games against the Royals to end the season. Not the hardest schedule in the world but not the easiest either.
As things are currently scheduled Charlie Morton is set to pitch Monday vs CIN and Reynaldo Lopez and Max Fried are set for Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington. That's all well and good.
The Braves are then off on Thursday and this is where the first tweak needs to be made. If they stayed on the current schedule, Spencer Schwellenbach would pitch the first game of the Dodgers series on Friday night. They need to skip his start and have Chris Sale pitch Friday night’s game instead of Schwellenbach. I’ll explain why in a minute but Sale would be on regular rest on Friday because of the off-day on Thursday. Then have Morton, Lopez, and Fried finish out the Dodgers series and have Schwellenbach pitch the first game in Cincinnati. Then the last 5 games of that road trip, everyone stays on schedule, with Sale and Morton pitching the last 2 games against the Reds and Lopez and Fried the first 2 games in Miami. Schwellenbach then pitches the last game against Miami and you have the front of your rotation ready to go the next week against the Mets.
After the last game in Miami on Sunday, you then have an off-day on Monday, followed by the Mets coming to Truist Park that Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday of the last week of the season. This will certainly be the biggest series of the year, as the Mets and Braves are currently tied for the last playoff spot. Not only are the games massive because of the standings themselves, but the winner of this series will also win the head-to-head tiebreaker for the season, which is the first tiebreaker used if both team finished the regular season with the same record. These are massive, massive games.
For that series Sale would be lined up to pitch game 1 and then because of the off-day on Monday, you could skip Morton, and pitch Lopez and Fried in games 2 and 3 of that series, guaranteeing that in the biggest series of the year, you have your three best starting pitchers going. That’s the second tweak I would make: Skip Morton for that series. Again, because of the off-day on Monday, Lopez and Fried would both be on regular rest for that series. No one is pitching on short rest at any point in this plan.
But this alignment also has another benefit. Because Sale would be pitching Tuesday’s game versus the Mets, he would be lined up to pitch the last game of the season, that Sunday game against the Royals, if it turns out the Braves needed to win that game to make the playoffs. If it’s a win-or-go-home scenario, there’s no one you’d rather have pitching then the likely Cy Young winner. Plus, if that last game is meaningless (hopefully because you’re already in the postseason) you can call someone else up to pitch Sunday and Sale would be ready to go in Game 1 of a playoff series. This setup also means Sale pitches (potentially) four times over the last 19 games, maximizing his impact. He would obviously only pitch game 162 if the playoffs were on the line.
This is how I would set up the rotation the last three weeks of the season. And you're not really even skipping anyone. No one other than the five main starters are ever making a start with this plan. There are no Bryce Elder games. You’re essentially just using the two off-days to rearrange the rotation where Schwellenbach gets a short breather and skips the Dodgers, your four most veteran starters are the four facing LA, and most importantly your best three guys are pitching against the Mets in the biggest series of the year. Then there’s the added benefit of having Sale available in game 162 if you need to win that one to make the playoffs. Again, at no point is anyone pitching on short rest and at no point is anyone other than your best five guys starting a game. So there’s no risk to this plan but plenty of reward.
The Braves had a chance to rearrange their rotation right before they played the Phillies seven times in ten days. Doing so would’ve guaranteed Chris Sale pitched in two of those games. They chose not to do it and because of it, Sale didn't make a single start against Philadelphia in those seven games while the Braves faced Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola two times each. They went 3-4 over those seven and that ended the division race. They don’t need to make the same mistake again.
By skipping Schwellenbach before the Dodgers’ series and skipping Morton during the Mets’ series, the Braves can set things up exactly like a playoff series, with their best pitchers pitching in the biggest games. That doesn't mean it’ll will work of course, but all you can do is put the team in the best setup to be successful and hope things break your way. I think this is the best setup.
Here’s the schedule fully laid out in case anyone got lost somewhere along the way.
Monday Sep 9th, vs CIN - Morton
Tuesday Sep 10th at WAS - Lopez
Wednesday Sep 11th at WAS - Fried
Thursday Sep 12th - OFF
Friday Sep 13th vs LAD - Sale
Saturday Sep 14th vs LAD - Morton
Sunday Sep 15th vs LAD - Lopez
Monday Sep 16th vs LAD - Fried
Tuesday Sep 17th at CIN - Schwellenbach
Wednesday Sep 18th at CIN - Sale
Thursday Sep 19th at CIN - Morton
Friday Sep 20th at MIA - Lopez
Saturday Sep 21st at MIA - Fried
Sunday Sep 22nd at MIA - Schwellenbach
Monday Sep 23rd - OFF
Tuesday Sep 24th vs NYM - Sale
Wednesday Sep 25th vs NYM - Lopez
Thursday Sep 26th vs NYM - Fried
Friday Sep 27th vs KCR - Schwellenbach
Saturday Sep 28th vs KCR - Morton
Sunday Sep 29th vs KCR - Sale (available if needed)
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