<img alt="MLB: SEP 04 Rockies at Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/CVgYodKXGxU2SL4et-KMrtzI45U=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73570484/2169616871.0.jpg">
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Braves’ rookie phenom will get a chance to show that his stumble against the Phillies was an aberration In a season of struggle and acrimony, perhaps the most contentious game of the year came during Spencer Schwellenbach’s most recent start. The rookie right-hander navigated five innings without a run tacked onto his ledger, but a severe lack of swing-and-miss came to roost against him in the sixth, as the Phillies dropped in three balls against the Braves defense to neutralize a two-run lead, and eventually walked it off in a game that effectively doomed the Braves’ scant NL East hopes in 2024. It was a bizarre outing for Schwellenbach, result aside: after seven consecutive starts of striking out at least seven batters, he managed just a 2/1 K/BB ratio in 5 2⁄3 innings against the Phillies. It was just one of four career starts so far with four or fewer strikeouts, to boot. So, the question for Schwellenbach today seems to be: was the lack of strikeouts a blip, or is something going to be afoot for the youngster down the remainder of the stretch?
Overall, Schwellenbach has essentially been nails to start his career. His seasonal effort thus far includes 2.2 fWAR in 92 2⁄3 innings, with an 88/78/79 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) line. After struggling in his first three starts of the year, though, he’s been on an absolute tear: 75/71/72 in 77 innings, with a 92/14 K/BB ratio. Though prone to multiple homers in a few starts thus far given how aggressively he attacks hitters, he’s largely made it work all summer... which is why the outing against the Phillies was so surprising in its complete lack of oomph and reliance on his defense to get outs. Max Fried had few issues forcing the Jays to either hit it on the ground or miss it entirely last night, so the hope is that Schwellenbach can follow suit and return to his awesome ways. If not, well... uh-oh.
The other half of tonight’s pitching matchup is Jose Berrios, whose season is basically reflective of how the Blue Jays’ 2024 campaign has gone as a whole. In short, Berrios has been disappointing — he’s at 0.8 fWAR right now, and probably won’t get too much above 1.0 unless he goes really crazy in a handful of September starts. But, the real issue for him was just a prolonged awful stretch in June and July, which is also when the Jays swooned. In an 11-start stretch spanning about 60 days, Berrios put up an unthinkably horrid 142/156/124 line, with 24 walks and 15 homers allowed. In the 12 starts before that? 69/104/101. In the five starts since? A stellar 39/73/76. Basically, Berrios has been quite good lately, but it’s all just been in the service of ameliorating how absolutely unplayably awful he was for a long time before that. So, in the end, matching up with Berrios right now is kind of weird. He’s had a blah season, but has been really good for about a month. The Braves would benefit from seeing June-July Berrios, but it’s not clear they will, and if they see August Berrios, well... Schwellenbach will really need to rediscover the strikeout to give them a good chance.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Saturday, September 7, 7:20 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
XM Radio: Ch. 177
<img alt="MLB: SEP 04 Rockies at Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/CVgYodKXGxU2SL4et-KMrtzI45U=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73570484/2169616871.0.jpg">
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Braves’ rookie phenom will get a chance to show that his stumble against the Phillies was an aberration In a season of struggle and acrimony, perhaps the most contentious game of the year came during Spencer Schwellenbach’s most recent start. The rookie right-hander navigated five innings without a run tacked onto his ledger, but a severe lack of swing-and-miss came to roost against him in the sixth, as the Phillies dropped in three balls against the Braves defense to neutralize a two-run lead, and eventually walked it off in a game that effectively doomed the Braves’ scant NL East hopes in 2024. It was a bizarre outing for Schwellenbach, result aside: after seven consecutive starts of striking out at least seven batters, he managed just a 2/1 K/BB ratio in 5 2⁄3 innings against the Phillies. It was just one of four career starts so far with four or fewer strikeouts, to boot. So, the question for Schwellenbach today seems to be: was the lack of strikeouts a blip, or is something going to be afoot for the youngster down the remainder of the stretch?
Overall, Schwellenbach has essentially been nails to start his career. His seasonal effort thus far includes 2.2 fWAR in 92 2⁄3 innings, with an 88/78/79 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) line. After struggling in his first three starts of the year, though, he’s been on an absolute tear: 75/71/72 in 77 innings, with a 92/14 K/BB ratio. Though prone to multiple homers in a few starts thus far given how aggressively he attacks hitters, he’s largely made it work all summer... which is why the outing against the Phillies was so surprising in its complete lack of oomph and reliance on his defense to get outs. Max Fried had few issues forcing the Jays to either hit it on the ground or miss it entirely last night, so the hope is that Schwellenbach can follow suit and return to his awesome ways. If not, well... uh-oh.
The other half of tonight’s pitching matchup is Jose Berrios, whose season is basically reflective of how the Blue Jays’ 2024 campaign has gone as a whole. In short, Berrios has been disappointing — he’s at 0.8 fWAR right now, and probably won’t get too much above 1.0 unless he goes really crazy in a handful of September starts. But, the real issue for him was just a prolonged awful stretch in June and July, which is also when the Jays swooned. In an 11-start stretch spanning about 60 days, Berrios put up an unthinkably horrid 142/156/124 line, with 24 walks and 15 homers allowed. In the 12 starts before that? 69/104/101. In the five starts since? A stellar 39/73/76. Basically, Berrios has been quite good lately, but it’s all just been in the service of ameliorating how absolutely unplayably awful he was for a long time before that. So, in the end, matching up with Berrios right now is kind of weird. He’s had a blah season, but has been really good for about a month. The Braves would benefit from seeing June-July Berrios, but it’s not clear they will, and if they see August Berrios, well... Schwellenbach will really need to rediscover the strikeout to give them a good chance.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Saturday, September 7, 7:20 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
XM Radio: Ch. 177
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