<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EodJ4kNzAaSZTGVm2nnoWgI8JWU=/0x0:7222x4815/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73560603/2165585454.0.jpg">
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
The Braves did not have a fun time at Coors Field, in the end — maybe they’ll do better in Atlanta After a letdown of a series in Philadelphia, where the Braves bungled their way to a loss that’s basically killed their hopes of winning the NL East once and for all, and effectively trimmed their hold on a playoff spot to half a game, they’ll return home for a seven-game homestand that starts with three against the Rockies.
The Braves had a poor series against Colorado when they visited in August, dropping two of three games, including a horrendous bullpen meltdown that saw them blow a giant lead late and lose by a run. After that, the Braves actually played pretty well, winning each of their series before the problems in Philadelphia. The Rockies, meanwhile, continued to just kind of exist in the NL West cellar, losing four of the six series they’ve played, splitting a four-game set against the Marlins, and somewhat surprisingly, taking a set from the Padres.
At 51-87, the Rockies are saved only by the miserable White Sox from having the worst record in MLB, though the Marlins are only half a game ahead of them. That said, the Rockies’ terrible record is really an artifact of them going 7-22 to start the year, and then a 7-20 run in June. They’ve played like a bad-but-not-horrible team for long stretches, and actually went above .500 in the month of May.
Still, there’s just not much to hang your hat on as far as their roster goes. They’re saved from being dead last in position player fWAR only by the fact that the White Sox have been unfathomably bad in that regard; they are, however, dead last, by quite a margin, in pitching value. Their bullpen has been especially poor, one of just two in MLB that’s been below replacement as a unit.
Guys having notable seasons in Colorado include Brenton Doyle (good to great on both sides of the ball) and Ezequiel Tovar (great defense, poor hitting, but outhitting his xwOBA so much you won’t notice)... and that’s about it. Ryan McMahon and maybe starting pitcher Ryan Feltner are the only guys to likely join Doyle and Tovar in exceeding 2 fWAR. Brendan Rodgers, whose double capped the Rockies’ comeback in the Braves’ meltdown in August, has actually been swinging it really well over the last few weeks, but that’s just brought his line back up to mediocre territory.
The Braves should have an easy time in this series, on paper, but they probably won’t, because very little has been easy for them this season. While it helps that the Rockies are horrendous on the road (19-50, compared to 32-37 at home) — they haven’t split a road series since early June and haven’t won one since mid-May — the Braves have for whatever reason really struggled to win their easy-on-paper matchups this year. But, they kind of need to start, or else they’ll drop out of playoff contention. There are only eight series left, and three of those are against good teams, so this series is a big chunk of the remaining schedule that the Braves have available to leverage additional security for their playoff hopes.
Tuesday, September 3, 7:20 pm EDT, Bally Sports South
Kyle Freeland (16 GS, 85 IP, 117 ERA-, 108 FIP-, 105 xFIP-, xERA between ERA and FIP)
Kyle Freeland got the start in the game that eventually became the Braves’ horrible meltdown in Denver, and was knocked around in 3 2⁄3 innings, posting just a 1/1 K/BB ratio while getting touched for two homers. It was kind of an interesting result at the time, though drowned out by the Braves’ bullpen getting torched, because Freeland had pitched quite well in eight starts coming into that game.
Since getting blasted by the Braves, though, he’s pitched much worse — three homers and just an 11/6 K/BB ratio across three starts. Freeland’s also been bizarrely super homer-prone away from Coors Field this year, which is probably a HR/FB thing, but the Braves will take it if it persists.
Chris Sale (25 GS, 153 2⁄3 IP, 61 ERA-, 52 FIP-, 63 xFIP-, xERA a bit above ERA)
What more can you say about Chris Sale and his video game numbers? He has 0.6 more fWAR than the next-closest starter, has had three starts in 25 tries with a below-average FIP-, and just one start with a below-average xFIP-. Over his last six outings, opponents have somehow notched a .421 BABIP against him, yet he’s only been charged with nine total runs... and hasn’t given up a homer in the process.
There’s something to be said for the sheer, weeping-inducing hilarity of the possibility that the 2024 best pitcher in baseball ends up faltering against a profoundly bad lineup, so let’s just hope that doesn’t happen.
Wednesday, September 4, 7:20 pm EDT, Bally Sports South
Bradley Blalock (5 G, 4 GS, 21 2⁄3 IP, 106 ERA-, 105 FIP-, 134 xFIP-, xERA similar to ERA)
The Braves just missed Blalock in Colorado, as he made his first career start the day after the Braves left town. That first start actually went okay (4/0 K/BB ratio), but the ones since have been much worse (10/8 K/BB ratio in 15 innings, with two homers thrown in).
Blalock has been a part of two Trade Deadline deals already — the Red Sox sent him to Milwaukee for Luis Urias last year, and he was part of the return for Nick Mears from the Brewers this year.
Charlie Morton (25 GS, 137 1⁄3 IP, 101 ERA-, 115 FIP-, 98 xFIP-, xERA similar to FIP)
Morton was on a nice three-start run before things went south for him and the Braves in Philadelphia. He walked four for the first time since late June. On the season, Morton continues to struggle with serious contact and HR/FB issues. Over his last 11 starts, he has a 60/17 K/BB ratio, which is quite exciting, but has also given up a whopping 14 homers in the process. As a result, he’s likely going to have his worst season since his final year in Pittsburgh back in 2015 — though if he really goes ham over the last month of play, maybe he can somehow surpass his 2022, which also featured a lot of homer problems.
Thursday, September 5, 7:20 pm EDT, Bally Sports South
Austin Gomber (26 GS, 144 IP, 100 ERA-, 116 FIP-, 110 xFIP-, xERA notably above FIP)
Gomber has been in the league for six seasons at this point, and he’s been remarkably consistent as a fourth/fifth starter-type. Usually those types maybe flash something better that gets them more playing time, and occasionally run into a horrible year that derails their careers... but Gomber has basically gotten eating not-particularly-quality innings down to a science at this point. He’s like the Wade Miley you have at home, basically.
That said, Gomber’s actually been kind of inconsistent from stretch to stretch this year, as he put together some good efforts in May and July, but has been the bad kind of pants over his last six starts, with seven longballs and a 24/9 K/BB ratio in 35 innings. The Braves have faced Gomber a few times here and there, and largely destroyed him every time as a starter, but of course, this team doesn’t really resemble the full-force lineups Atlanta fielded in 2022 and 2023.
Reynaldo Lopez (22 GS, 121 2⁄3 IP, 47 ERA-, 76 FIP-, 91 xFIP-, xERA way above xFIP)
Lopez had the un-dubious distinction of being the only Braves starter not to run aground on the rocky shores of the third time through the lineup during the series in Philadelphia. Yes, the team asked him to make that sojourn, just like the other starters, but he retired all five guys he faced the third time through, striking out three of them, which was actually half of his total strikeouts. That’s kind of what it takes for the Braves to win these days, so yay for him in not getting torched the way his teammates did.
Lopez continues to have a hilarious deviation in his outcomes versus his inputs, not just ERA, but FIP versus xFIP and xERA. He seems to have mastered the art of giving up the hard-hit not-homer, which probably isn’t a real art, but is still a nice thing to benefit from given how few of those there have been this season.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EodJ4kNzAaSZTGVm2nnoWgI8JWU=/0x0:7222x4815/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73560603/2165585454.0.jpg">
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
The Braves did not have a fun time at Coors Field, in the end — maybe they’ll do better in Atlanta After a letdown of a series in Philadelphia, where the Braves bungled their way to a loss that’s basically killed their hopes of winning the NL East once and for all, and effectively trimmed their hold on a playoff spot to half a game, they’ll return home for a seven-game homestand that starts with three against the Rockies.
The Braves had a poor series against Colorado when they visited in August, dropping two of three games, including a horrendous bullpen meltdown that saw them blow a giant lead late and lose by a run. After that, the Braves actually played pretty well, winning each of their series before the problems in Philadelphia. The Rockies, meanwhile, continued to just kind of exist in the NL West cellar, losing four of the six series they’ve played, splitting a four-game set against the Marlins, and somewhat surprisingly, taking a set from the Padres.
At 51-87, the Rockies are saved only by the miserable White Sox from having the worst record in MLB, though the Marlins are only half a game ahead of them. That said, the Rockies’ terrible record is really an artifact of them going 7-22 to start the year, and then a 7-20 run in June. They’ve played like a bad-but-not-horrible team for long stretches, and actually went above .500 in the month of May.
Still, there’s just not much to hang your hat on as far as their roster goes. They’re saved from being dead last in position player fWAR only by the fact that the White Sox have been unfathomably bad in that regard; they are, however, dead last, by quite a margin, in pitching value. Their bullpen has been especially poor, one of just two in MLB that’s been below replacement as a unit.
Guys having notable seasons in Colorado include Brenton Doyle (good to great on both sides of the ball) and Ezequiel Tovar (great defense, poor hitting, but outhitting his xwOBA so much you won’t notice)... and that’s about it. Ryan McMahon and maybe starting pitcher Ryan Feltner are the only guys to likely join Doyle and Tovar in exceeding 2 fWAR. Brendan Rodgers, whose double capped the Rockies’ comeback in the Braves’ meltdown in August, has actually been swinging it really well over the last few weeks, but that’s just brought his line back up to mediocre territory.
The Braves should have an easy time in this series, on paper, but they probably won’t, because very little has been easy for them this season. While it helps that the Rockies are horrendous on the road (19-50, compared to 32-37 at home) — they haven’t split a road series since early June and haven’t won one since mid-May — the Braves have for whatever reason really struggled to win their easy-on-paper matchups this year. But, they kind of need to start, or else they’ll drop out of playoff contention. There are only eight series left, and three of those are against good teams, so this series is a big chunk of the remaining schedule that the Braves have available to leverage additional security for their playoff hopes.
Tuesday, September 3, 7:20 pm EDT, Bally Sports South
Kyle Freeland (16 GS, 85 IP, 117 ERA-, 108 FIP-, 105 xFIP-, xERA between ERA and FIP)
Kyle Freeland got the start in the game that eventually became the Braves’ horrible meltdown in Denver, and was knocked around in 3 2⁄3 innings, posting just a 1/1 K/BB ratio while getting touched for two homers. It was kind of an interesting result at the time, though drowned out by the Braves’ bullpen getting torched, because Freeland had pitched quite well in eight starts coming into that game.
Since getting blasted by the Braves, though, he’s pitched much worse — three homers and just an 11/6 K/BB ratio across three starts. Freeland’s also been bizarrely super homer-prone away from Coors Field this year, which is probably a HR/FB thing, but the Braves will take it if it persists.
Chris Sale (25 GS, 153 2⁄3 IP, 61 ERA-, 52 FIP-, 63 xFIP-, xERA a bit above ERA)
What more can you say about Chris Sale and his video game numbers? He has 0.6 more fWAR than the next-closest starter, has had three starts in 25 tries with a below-average FIP-, and just one start with a below-average xFIP-. Over his last six outings, opponents have somehow notched a .421 BABIP against him, yet he’s only been charged with nine total runs... and hasn’t given up a homer in the process.
There’s something to be said for the sheer, weeping-inducing hilarity of the possibility that the 2024 best pitcher in baseball ends up faltering against a profoundly bad lineup, so let’s just hope that doesn’t happen.
Wednesday, September 4, 7:20 pm EDT, Bally Sports South
Bradley Blalock (5 G, 4 GS, 21 2⁄3 IP, 106 ERA-, 105 FIP-, 134 xFIP-, xERA similar to ERA)
The Braves just missed Blalock in Colorado, as he made his first career start the day after the Braves left town. That first start actually went okay (4/0 K/BB ratio), but the ones since have been much worse (10/8 K/BB ratio in 15 innings, with two homers thrown in).
Blalock has been a part of two Trade Deadline deals already — the Red Sox sent him to Milwaukee for Luis Urias last year, and he was part of the return for Nick Mears from the Brewers this year.
Charlie Morton (25 GS, 137 1⁄3 IP, 101 ERA-, 115 FIP-, 98 xFIP-, xERA similar to FIP)
Morton was on a nice three-start run before things went south for him and the Braves in Philadelphia. He walked four for the first time since late June. On the season, Morton continues to struggle with serious contact and HR/FB issues. Over his last 11 starts, he has a 60/17 K/BB ratio, which is quite exciting, but has also given up a whopping 14 homers in the process. As a result, he’s likely going to have his worst season since his final year in Pittsburgh back in 2015 — though if he really goes ham over the last month of play, maybe he can somehow surpass his 2022, which also featured a lot of homer problems.
Thursday, September 5, 7:20 pm EDT, Bally Sports South
Austin Gomber (26 GS, 144 IP, 100 ERA-, 116 FIP-, 110 xFIP-, xERA notably above FIP)
Gomber has been in the league for six seasons at this point, and he’s been remarkably consistent as a fourth/fifth starter-type. Usually those types maybe flash something better that gets them more playing time, and occasionally run into a horrible year that derails their careers... but Gomber has basically gotten eating not-particularly-quality innings down to a science at this point. He’s like the Wade Miley you have at home, basically.
That said, Gomber’s actually been kind of inconsistent from stretch to stretch this year, as he put together some good efforts in May and July, but has been the bad kind of pants over his last six starts, with seven longballs and a 24/9 K/BB ratio in 35 innings. The Braves have faced Gomber a few times here and there, and largely destroyed him every time as a starter, but of course, this team doesn’t really resemble the full-force lineups Atlanta fielded in 2022 and 2023.
Reynaldo Lopez (22 GS, 121 2⁄3 IP, 47 ERA-, 76 FIP-, 91 xFIP-, xERA way above xFIP)
Lopez had the un-dubious distinction of being the only Braves starter not to run aground on the rocky shores of the third time through the lineup during the series in Philadelphia. Yes, the team asked him to make that sojourn, just like the other starters, but he retired all five guys he faced the third time through, striking out three of them, which was actually half of his total strikeouts. That’s kind of what it takes for the Braves to win these days, so yay for him in not getting torched the way his teammates did.
Lopez continues to have a hilarious deviation in his outcomes versus his inputs, not just ERA, but FIP versus xFIP and xERA. He seems to have mastered the art of giving up the hard-hit not-homer, which probably isn’t a real art, but is still a nice thing to benefit from given how few of those there have been this season.
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