<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ol3L6gBc0Dvm0HmshFQYkp3BMnY=/0x0:3500x2333/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73559095/2169658949.0.jpg">
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
After the Braves dropped three of four in their big series in Philadelphia this weekend, let’s have a comprehensive look at where they are in the standings with four weeks left to play. When the season opened in Philadelphia back in March, the Atlanta Braves were on top of the world. Their roster looked like a juggernaut, filled with loads of established stars and some risky but exciting high-ceiling players as well. Entering the season, FanGraphs projected the Braves for 98.1 wins, 4 more than the next best team in the Dodgers. The Braves were given an 88.8 percent chance to win the NL East for a seventh-consecutive season, and a 98.3 percent chance overall to make the playoffs.
Now? The Braves are in a position that you and I likely couldn’t have imagined five months ago. They are 74-63, which is on pace for just 87 wins – worse than the Kansas City Royals, a team that lost 106 games just a year ago. They have a one-game lead on the final wild card spot and are a full 7 games back in the division.
On the one hand, it’s unfathomable to see the Braves fighting for their playoff lives this late in the season. After all, this team was projected to be far and away the best in baseball. They surpassed 100 wins in each of the previous two regular seasons and seemed likely to do so again without much difficulty.
On the other hand, given what they’ve had to endure, it’s incredible to see the Braves still holding onto a postseason spot heading into September. If they stay healthy the rest of the way, they will have lost nearly one third of their preseason projected WAR to injuries. They’ve also had to endure underperformance from established, reliable All-Stars (such as Matt Olson and Sean Murphy) as well as severe underperformance from what looked to be a solid core of role players (Adam Duvall, Orlando Arcia, Jarred Kelenic, etc.). As if that wasn’t enough, some metrics show the Braves as the unluckiest team in baseball in terms of how their inputs have correlated to their outputs.
But the past (however unfortunate) is the past, and all the Braves and their fans can do now is look forward to the stretch run.
First: A quick and basic overview of where the Braves stand. As was previously mentioned, the Braves are seven games back of Philly in the division, which all but guarantees they will not win the division for a seventh consecutive season. They are two games back of both the Padres and Diamondbacks for the top two Wild Card spots, and they hold a precarious one game lead over the Mets. The red-hot Cubs have forced themselves into the conversation with a 9-1 record and an astonishing 99 runs scored in their last ten games. They are now just three games back of Atlanta. Beyond that, the Cardinals are closer than you might think (4 GB) and the Giants are worth mentioning as extreme longshots (7.5 GB). Beyond that, there aren’t really any teams worth mentioning in the NL playoff race.
There are a number of factors beyond record and games back to consider down the stretch. Who holds tiebreakers? What does each team’s schedule look like? Are there any key matchups to watch? Who’s hot and who’s not?
Behold! A comprehensive table awaits you, complete with strength of schedule remaining and playoff odds numbers from FanGraphs.
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Woof. Basically every team above and below the Braves is red hot. The Diamondbacks, Padres, and Cubs were all spectacular in the month of August, and the Mets and Phillies have played much better over the past couple of weeks.
The good news, however, is that FanGraphs estimates that the Braves have the easiest remaining schedule of all NL playoff contenders. The Phillies schedule is also light the rest of the way, further reinforcing the notion that the division is effectively over after this weekend. In the Wild Card race, the Mets, D-Backs, and Padres all have very tough schedules, which certainly helps the Braves chances of retaining a playoff spot (and possibly advancing in their seeding).
If you’re into scoreboard watching, here are the main teams and storylines you can follow. There’s still a decent chance the Braves can snag the top NL Wild Card spot, which would give them the opportunity to host the three game series in Atlanta vs. the WC2 team. In order for that to happen, they’ll need to gain three games to pass San Diego (who hold the tiebreaker over the Braves) and two on Arizona to tie. At this point, however, the main concern is just getting in the playoffs at all. There’s a crucial three game series at home vs. the Mets in the last week of the season — whoever wins that series will win the season series and hold the tiebreaker in the event that both teams end with the same record, as they did in 2022 at the top of the NL East. Aside from that, keep an eye on the Cubs (who will need to gain four games and pass Atlanta) and the Cardinals (who will need to gain four games and tie Atlanta) — they both have a pretty light schedule remaining, and the Cubs especially have been surging of late.
So, what’s next? Mercifully, the Braves have an off day on Monday to recover from the crushing blows they withstood in Philly over the weekend. After that, their next nine games are vs. teams with losing records, including seven at home, starting with a three game set against the 51-87 Colorado Rockies. The Braves this season have actually played much better against stronger competition, going 46-37 versus teams with a record of .500 or greater but only 28-26 against losing teams. In September, Atlanta’s playoff push will be highly reliant on reversing that trend by taking care of business against lesser opponents.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ol3L6gBc0Dvm0HmshFQYkp3BMnY=/0x0:3500x2333/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73559095/2169658949.0.jpg">
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
After the Braves dropped three of four in their big series in Philadelphia this weekend, let’s have a comprehensive look at where they are in the standings with four weeks left to play. When the season opened in Philadelphia back in March, the Atlanta Braves were on top of the world. Their roster looked like a juggernaut, filled with loads of established stars and some risky but exciting high-ceiling players as well. Entering the season, FanGraphs projected the Braves for 98.1 wins, 4 more than the next best team in the Dodgers. The Braves were given an 88.8 percent chance to win the NL East for a seventh-consecutive season, and a 98.3 percent chance overall to make the playoffs.
Now? The Braves are in a position that you and I likely couldn’t have imagined five months ago. They are 74-63, which is on pace for just 87 wins – worse than the Kansas City Royals, a team that lost 106 games just a year ago. They have a one-game lead on the final wild card spot and are a full 7 games back in the division.
On the one hand, it’s unfathomable to see the Braves fighting for their playoff lives this late in the season. After all, this team was projected to be far and away the best in baseball. They surpassed 100 wins in each of the previous two regular seasons and seemed likely to do so again without much difficulty.
On the other hand, given what they’ve had to endure, it’s incredible to see the Braves still holding onto a postseason spot heading into September. If they stay healthy the rest of the way, they will have lost nearly one third of their preseason projected WAR to injuries. They’ve also had to endure underperformance from established, reliable All-Stars (such as Matt Olson and Sean Murphy) as well as severe underperformance from what looked to be a solid core of role players (Adam Duvall, Orlando Arcia, Jarred Kelenic, etc.). As if that wasn’t enough, some metrics show the Braves as the unluckiest team in baseball in terms of how their inputs have correlated to their outputs.
But the past (however unfortunate) is the past, and all the Braves and their fans can do now is look forward to the stretch run.
First: A quick and basic overview of where the Braves stand. As was previously mentioned, the Braves are seven games back of Philly in the division, which all but guarantees they will not win the division for a seventh consecutive season. They are two games back of both the Padres and Diamondbacks for the top two Wild Card spots, and they hold a precarious one game lead over the Mets. The red-hot Cubs have forced themselves into the conversation with a 9-1 record and an astonishing 99 runs scored in their last ten games. They are now just three games back of Atlanta. Beyond that, the Cardinals are closer than you might think (4 GB) and the Giants are worth mentioning as extreme longshots (7.5 GB). Beyond that, there aren’t really any teams worth mentioning in the NL playoff race.
There are a number of factors beyond record and games back to consider down the stretch. Who holds tiebreakers? What does each team’s schedule look like? Are there any key matchups to watch? Who’s hot and who’s not?
Behold! A comprehensive table awaits you, complete with strength of schedule remaining and playoff odds numbers from FanGraphs.
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Woof. Basically every team above and below the Braves is red hot. The Diamondbacks, Padres, and Cubs were all spectacular in the month of August, and the Mets and Phillies have played much better over the past couple of weeks.
The good news, however, is that FanGraphs estimates that the Braves have the easiest remaining schedule of all NL playoff contenders. The Phillies schedule is also light the rest of the way, further reinforcing the notion that the division is effectively over after this weekend. In the Wild Card race, the Mets, D-Backs, and Padres all have very tough schedules, which certainly helps the Braves chances of retaining a playoff spot (and possibly advancing in their seeding).
If you’re into scoreboard watching, here are the main teams and storylines you can follow. There’s still a decent chance the Braves can snag the top NL Wild Card spot, which would give them the opportunity to host the three game series in Atlanta vs. the WC2 team. In order for that to happen, they’ll need to gain three games to pass San Diego (who hold the tiebreaker over the Braves) and two on Arizona to tie. At this point, however, the main concern is just getting in the playoffs at all. There’s a crucial three game series at home vs. the Mets in the last week of the season — whoever wins that series will win the season series and hold the tiebreaker in the event that both teams end with the same record, as they did in 2022 at the top of the NL East. Aside from that, keep an eye on the Cubs (who will need to gain four games and pass Atlanta) and the Cardinals (who will need to gain four games and tie Atlanta) — they both have a pretty light schedule remaining, and the Cubs especially have been surging of late.
So, what’s next? Mercifully, the Braves have an off day on Monday to recover from the crushing blows they withstood in Philly over the weekend. After that, their next nine games are vs. teams with losing records, including seven at home, starting with a three game set against the 51-87 Colorado Rockies. The Braves this season have actually played much better against stronger competition, going 46-37 versus teams with a record of .500 or greater but only 28-26 against losing teams. In September, Atlanta’s playoff push will be highly reliant on reversing that trend by taking care of business against lesser opponents.
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