<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Minnesota Twins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_g_S6EiUzLXohKGfId-icJD5oNc=/0x0:2977x1985/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73557747/2168904496.0.jpg">
Photo by David Berding/Getty Images
The moonshot operation failed dramatically, but the Braves still need to fend off the Mets Coming into this series, there was a dream. The Braves had been rolling, the Phillies had been experiencing their own version of malaise for about two months, and you could squint and see the scintilla of a sweep, or failing that, at least the glimmer of a three-game deficit in the division heading into the final four weeks of play. But, dreams are dreams for a reason, and the Braves’ sonorous slumber was, perhaps predictably, dashed upon the jagged rocks of reality, both by their own perpetual inability to understand how pitching effectiveness works, and by the particularly recalcitrant pitching personage of one Zack Wheeler.
At this point, the Braves have largely bid adieu to any potential Phillies desolation and their own spleen, but they still have work to do nonetheless: the Mets are now just two games back, and the Braves still need to win games to secure a playoff spot. Furthermore, the Padres and Diamondbacks have suddenly ceased winning a trillion games in a row, such that the Braves are as far behind each of those teams (two games) as they are ahead of the Mets.
So, that brings us to tonight’s matchup, in which Spencer Schwellenbach will try to help the Island of Misfit Toys that is the Atlanta lineup secure a series split. If they’re successful, it’ll mean that while the Braves had their series win streak snapped yesterday, they at least haven’t had their series-not-lost streak still intact, and stretched to six. If they’re not successful, well, that’ll suck.
At this point, you probably know all about Schwellenbach, but if you don’t, basically, he’s been absurdly good. He comes into this game with an 88 ERA-, 78 FIP-, and 76 xFIP-, good for 2.1 fWAR in just 87 innings spanning 15 starts. That’s over 4 fWAR on a 30-start pace, and nearly 5 fWAR on a 200-inning pace, not that he’s going to get to either of those. Since his debut, he’s 16th (!!!) in pitching fWAR, with a top-20 FIP- and 12th-best xFIP- among the 162 starters with the most innings completed from that date forward. But, even more impressively, if you filter out his first three starts, where he was clearly learning on the job and working out his evolving pitching approach, he has a 75/71/68 line. From that date forward, he’s 11th in pitching fWAR, tenth in FIP-, and fifth in xFIP-.
Part of that success has been dominating the Phillies. On July 6, he bamboozled them with a 7/1 K/BB ratio in six frames, charged with a singleton run in a breezy 5-1 win. Two weeks ago, he outdid himself with a 9/1 K/BB ratio in 6 2/3, helping the Braves win a 3-2 game over their division rivals.
The Phillies, meanwhile, will make the Braves contend with the final part of their fearsome quartet: Aaron Nola. The 31-year-old right-hander is honestly having kind of a lame season by his standards, but the good news for the Phillies is that his standards are so high that a lame season for him is still well above average in general. Nola comes into the game with a 79/94/89 line. Both the FIP- and xFIP- are the worst he’s had since his partial rookie season back in 2015, but they’re still better than average marks. Nola’s also been scuffling a bit for a while now — since the All-Star Break, his line is 74/104/106, largely driven by an evaporating strikeout rate. His start last time out, against the Astros, featured six strikeouts for the first time in since games.
Nola has faced the Braves thrice this season already. They thrashed him with two homers (and more) in the second game of the season, but were dominated by him despite two homers (an 8/0 K/BB ratio will do that to ya) on July 5 (that was the Max Fried allows homers to Trea Turner, including 4TTO, game). A couple of weeks ago, Nola was the starter in the sole Phillies win in a series against the Braves, another 3-2 affair, where he gave up a homer to Orlando Arcia and had a 5/2 K/BB ratio in 5 1⁄3 frames.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, September 1, 7:10 P.M. EDT
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
TV: ESPN
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Ch. 89 / Ch. 175
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Minnesota Twins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_g_S6EiUzLXohKGfId-icJD5oNc=/0x0:2977x1985/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73557747/2168904496.0.jpg">
Photo by David Berding/Getty Images
The moonshot operation failed dramatically, but the Braves still need to fend off the Mets Coming into this series, there was a dream. The Braves had been rolling, the Phillies had been experiencing their own version of malaise for about two months, and you could squint and see the scintilla of a sweep, or failing that, at least the glimmer of a three-game deficit in the division heading into the final four weeks of play. But, dreams are dreams for a reason, and the Braves’ sonorous slumber was, perhaps predictably, dashed upon the jagged rocks of reality, both by their own perpetual inability to understand how pitching effectiveness works, and by the particularly recalcitrant pitching personage of one Zack Wheeler.
At this point, the Braves have largely bid adieu to any potential Phillies desolation and their own spleen, but they still have work to do nonetheless: the Mets are now just two games back, and the Braves still need to win games to secure a playoff spot. Furthermore, the Padres and Diamondbacks have suddenly ceased winning a trillion games in a row, such that the Braves are as far behind each of those teams (two games) as they are ahead of the Mets.
So, that brings us to tonight’s matchup, in which Spencer Schwellenbach will try to help the Island of Misfit Toys that is the Atlanta lineup secure a series split. If they’re successful, it’ll mean that while the Braves had their series win streak snapped yesterday, they at least haven’t had their series-not-lost streak still intact, and stretched to six. If they’re not successful, well, that’ll suck.
At this point, you probably know all about Schwellenbach, but if you don’t, basically, he’s been absurdly good. He comes into this game with an 88 ERA-, 78 FIP-, and 76 xFIP-, good for 2.1 fWAR in just 87 innings spanning 15 starts. That’s over 4 fWAR on a 30-start pace, and nearly 5 fWAR on a 200-inning pace, not that he’s going to get to either of those. Since his debut, he’s 16th (!!!) in pitching fWAR, with a top-20 FIP- and 12th-best xFIP- among the 162 starters with the most innings completed from that date forward. But, even more impressively, if you filter out his first three starts, where he was clearly learning on the job and working out his evolving pitching approach, he has a 75/71/68 line. From that date forward, he’s 11th in pitching fWAR, tenth in FIP-, and fifth in xFIP-.
Part of that success has been dominating the Phillies. On July 6, he bamboozled them with a 7/1 K/BB ratio in six frames, charged with a singleton run in a breezy 5-1 win. Two weeks ago, he outdid himself with a 9/1 K/BB ratio in 6 2/3, helping the Braves win a 3-2 game over their division rivals.
The Phillies, meanwhile, will make the Braves contend with the final part of their fearsome quartet: Aaron Nola. The 31-year-old right-hander is honestly having kind of a lame season by his standards, but the good news for the Phillies is that his standards are so high that a lame season for him is still well above average in general. Nola comes into the game with a 79/94/89 line. Both the FIP- and xFIP- are the worst he’s had since his partial rookie season back in 2015, but they’re still better than average marks. Nola’s also been scuffling a bit for a while now — since the All-Star Break, his line is 74/104/106, largely driven by an evaporating strikeout rate. His start last time out, against the Astros, featured six strikeouts for the first time in since games.
Nola has faced the Braves thrice this season already. They thrashed him with two homers (and more) in the second game of the season, but were dominated by him despite two homers (an 8/0 K/BB ratio will do that to ya) on July 5 (that was the Max Fried allows homers to Trea Turner, including 4TTO, game). A couple of weeks ago, Nola was the starter in the sole Phillies win in a series against the Braves, another 3-2 affair, where he gave up a homer to Orlando Arcia and had a 5/2 K/BB ratio in 5 1⁄3 frames.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, September 1, 7:10 P.M. EDT
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
TV: ESPN
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Ch. 89 / Ch. 175
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