<img alt="Houston Astros v Philadelphia Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/monox3ygz1QV-hVb8FjQ_Z5if6Q=/0x0:4648x3099/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73551975/2168874051.0.jpg">
Photo by Heather Barry/Getty Images
The Braves appear to be peaking at the right time and the Phillies recovered from their stumble in Atlanta last week. We could be in for a very exciting series in Philadelphia this weekend. I probably sound like a broken record at this point but yeah, this is a crucial series coming up between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves see this as an opportunity to keep on gaining ground on their foes currently sitting on the top of the division, while the Phillies are looking to take this chance to finally pick up a series win against the Braves while also putting them even further in the rearview mirror for the final month of the season.
The good news for Philadelphia is that they certainly responded in a positive manner following their series loss last week. They toppled the Royals in Kansas City and then they took two-out-of-three against the Astros earlier this week. Now granted, the Astros did bop them 10-0 on their way out of town but that still doesn’t take away from the fact that the Phillies are coming into this series playing some better baseball.
The bad news for the Phillies is that the Braves finally started to find some real footing in their current incarnation. They’ve won five series in a row and three of those series wins have come on the road, no less. On top of that, they’ll be rolling into Philadelphia with their offense seemingly getting themselves into gear after winning a pair of slugfests in Minnesota on their way to a sweep. The lineup has been carrying the load this week and while that is definitely a positive sign, the pitching staff will need to return to form if the Braves are going to have a serious shot at leaving town with the upper hand.
Thursday, August 29, 6:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network)
Charlie Morton (24 GS, 131.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.24 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
Somehow, this’ll be Morton’s first time taking on the Phillies this season. The obvious hope here is that he’ll be able to deliver a performance that’s closer to how he’s looked over his three most recent starts. He’s gotten into the sixth inning in each of those starts while giving up two runs or less. Folks, that’s a streak and hopefully he’ll be able to keep that streak going in order to get this series started on a high note.
While Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the usual suspects to watch out for as both of them have homered against Morton in the past, one guy that has been a real thorn in Morton’s side has been Alec Bohm. Bohm doesn’t have any homers against him yet but he does have eight RBIs. a .444 batting average and a .929 OPS against Morton over 27 at-bats. Now granted, anybody in this lineup can just show up and cause you to have a bad day but Morton will have to figure out a way to sit these guys down consistently if he’s going to have another good outing.
Cristopher Sánchez (25 GS, 146.1 IP, 19.1 K%, 5.8 BB%, 3.51 ERA, 2.84 FIP)
Sánchez has been having himself a mighty fine season and has truly emerged as one of the more reliable cogs in the machine that is Philadelphia’s starting pitching rotation. He’s currently on track for career highs across the board and the one thing that has been particularly impressive is his microscopic HR/9 rate of just 0.37. If you’re taking this guy deep, then you’re really doing something. In related news, here’s what happened the last time Adam Duvall saw Cristopher Sánchez:
While this might be the equivalent of a blind squirrel acquiring a nut when you consider how Duvall’s season has gone, it’s still proof that it is totally possible to go yard on this guy. Yeah, Duvall is still the only Braves player on this current form of the team to do so but that’s neither here or there. This is going to be a tough task for Atlanta to get to him but it’s certainly not an impossible task, either.
Friday, August 30, 6:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Reynaldo López (21 GS, 115.2 IP, 25.3 K%, 8.7 BB%, 2.02 ERA, 2.99 FIP)
At this point, López has blown past his career high in fWAR (he’s currently at 2.9 fWAR for the season) and could potentially clear it (2.4) by more than an entire point by the time he’s done. Just like Cristopher Sánchez, his HR/9 rate is very small at just 0.54 and you’ve really got to be doing something big if you’re able to homer off of López here in 2024. Fortunately, I’m not about to hard pivot to a Phillies player hitting a dinger off of López this season (since it hasn’t happened) but I am able to show you what happened when López faced the Phillies not too long ago:
Needless to say, I think we all will take a second helping of that performance — or in López’s case in particular, a third helping since he’s only given up one run over 12 innings pitched against the Phillies so far this season.
Ranger Suárez (21 GS, 124.1 IP, 24.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 2.82 ERA, 2.95 FIP)
Meanwhile, this will be Suárez’s third go-around with the Braves this season as well and the Braves have had their fair share of success against him so far this season. While the Phillies did pick up the win back in the olden days of March 31, the Braves did get him for three runs over five innings. However, Ozzie Albies was the one who hit a homer against him and obviously he’s not currently playing so you can’t really glean too much from that.
In fact, Suárez is probably thrilled that he doesn’t have to see Albies since Ozzie homered against him back on July 6 as well. Marcell Ozuna also got him for a big fly back then and the two of them combined for the five runs that Suárez gave up in that 5-1 win for the Braves. However, Jorge Soler has had a decent amount of success against him so far and Adam Duvall has also gotten the job done against him, historically. Maybe we’ll see Duvall get some playing time in this series?
Saturday, August 31, 7:15 p.m. ET (Fox)
Max Fried (24 GS, 131.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.24 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
Just like Morton, Fried is coming into this series by steadily finding his footing in terms of perfmance. He’s made it through five innings in each of his past four starts and he’s given up three runs or less in each of his past three starts. that includes an outing back on August 21 where Fried went seven innings and only gave up four hits and two runs against the Phillies. Atlanta’s starting pitching was a huge reason why the Braves were able to win that series and the Braves are obviously hoping that Fried can contniue to stay solid and make it another solid start against the Phillies.
The guy to watch out for this time is J.T. Realmuto. Realmuto usually enjoys hitting against the Braves but he’s really enjoyed hitting against Fried. He’s got three homers and nine RBIs against Fried over the course of his career and is sporting a .325 batting average and a 1.006 OPS against him. Trea Turner also has three homers against Fried with seven RBIs, a batting average north of .350 and an OPS over 1.000. It would be shocking if the Braves kept both of those guys quiet all weekend but who knows? Maybe this will be the time Fried shuts both of them down.
Zack Wheeler (24 GS, 131.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.24 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
The Braves are set to get familiar with their old foe once again and as usual, it’s probably going to be a tough night. Even though the Braves did win the game in their last outing against Wheeler, they still were only able to push two runs past him while he was out there for six innings. Additionally, Wheeler racked up eight strikeouts while he was out there. This wasn’t his best performance but it was still the tough effort that the Braves have come to expect from Wheeler while he’s out there.
One thing to watch out for is whether or not the Braves can get Wheeler for another long ball. Wheeler has given up at one homer in three of his past six starts (with Marcell Ozuna having one of those homers) and he even gave up three to the Yankees a month ago. That’s not to say that Wheeler has all of a sudden become homer-happy or anything like that but if we do see the Braves get on the board against this guy, then that might be the route to take.
Sunday, September 1, 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spencer Schwellenbach (24 GS, 131.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.24 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
The good news for Schwellenbach is that he did manage to keep the Twins off of the scoreboard in his most recent outing while striking out eight batters. On its face, that was a decent enough of an improvement off of his start against the Phillies where he gave up two runs and struck out nine. The bad news is that the rookie only lasted 4.2 innings and walked three batters, which is basically the equivalent of walking the entire ballpark for this guy.
With that being said, Schwellenbach has continued to be impressive over the course of his rookie season and he’s been very effective against the Phillies in his two starts against them so far this season. The Phillies have yet to really figure him out at this point and hopefully he continues to be one step ahead of them going forward.
Aaron Nola (24 GS, 131.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.24 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
Another old foe is set to face off with the Braves as Aaron Nola will be getting the ball for the series finale. While Nola has historically been an extremely tough customer for Atlanta to deal with and he’s coming off of a start where he pitched seven shutout innings against a good Houston team, the Braves are entering this game having already had three solid performances against him so far this season.
With that being said, the Phillies have won two of the three games that Nola has started against the Braves this season so it hasn’t all been sunshine and roses. Here in the fourth game (both in this series and in the season series between Nola and the Braves), there won’t be any more surprises. It’ll likely simply come down to who’s better on the day and here’s hoping that Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson can combine their individual levels of success against Nola on Sunday night.
<img alt="Houston Astros v Philadelphia Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/monox3ygz1QV-hVb8FjQ_Z5if6Q=/0x0:4648x3099/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73551975/2168874051.0.jpg">
Photo by Heather Barry/Getty Images
The Braves appear to be peaking at the right time and the Phillies recovered from their stumble in Atlanta last week. We could be in for a very exciting series in Philadelphia this weekend. I probably sound like a broken record at this point but yeah, this is a crucial series coming up between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves see this as an opportunity to keep on gaining ground on their foes currently sitting on the top of the division, while the Phillies are looking to take this chance to finally pick up a series win against the Braves while also putting them even further in the rearview mirror for the final month of the season.
The good news for Philadelphia is that they certainly responded in a positive manner following their series loss last week. They toppled the Royals in Kansas City and then they took two-out-of-three against the Astros earlier this week. Now granted, the Astros did bop them 10-0 on their way out of town but that still doesn’t take away from the fact that the Phillies are coming into this series playing some better baseball.
The bad news for the Phillies is that the Braves finally started to find some real footing in their current incarnation. They’ve won five series in a row and three of those series wins have come on the road, no less. On top of that, they’ll be rolling into Philadelphia with their offense seemingly getting themselves into gear after winning a pair of slugfests in Minnesota on their way to a sweep. The lineup has been carrying the load this week and while that is definitely a positive sign, the pitching staff will need to return to form if the Braves are going to have a serious shot at leaving town with the upper hand.
Thursday, August 29, 6:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network)
Charlie Morton (24 GS, 131.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.24 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
Somehow, this’ll be Morton’s first time taking on the Phillies this season. The obvious hope here is that he’ll be able to deliver a performance that’s closer to how he’s looked over his three most recent starts. He’s gotten into the sixth inning in each of those starts while giving up two runs or less. Folks, that’s a streak and hopefully he’ll be able to keep that streak going in order to get this series started on a high note.
While Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the usual suspects to watch out for as both of them have homered against Morton in the past, one guy that has been a real thorn in Morton’s side has been Alec Bohm. Bohm doesn’t have any homers against him yet but he does have eight RBIs. a .444 batting average and a .929 OPS against Morton over 27 at-bats. Now granted, anybody in this lineup can just show up and cause you to have a bad day but Morton will have to figure out a way to sit these guys down consistently if he’s going to have another good outing.
Cristopher Sánchez (25 GS, 146.1 IP, 19.1 K%, 5.8 BB%, 3.51 ERA, 2.84 FIP)
Sánchez has been having himself a mighty fine season and has truly emerged as one of the more reliable cogs in the machine that is Philadelphia’s starting pitching rotation. He’s currently on track for career highs across the board and the one thing that has been particularly impressive is his microscopic HR/9 rate of just 0.37. If you’re taking this guy deep, then you’re really doing something. In related news, here’s what happened the last time Adam Duvall saw Cristopher Sánchez:
While this might be the equivalent of a blind squirrel acquiring a nut when you consider how Duvall’s season has gone, it’s still proof that it is totally possible to go yard on this guy. Yeah, Duvall is still the only Braves player on this current form of the team to do so but that’s neither here or there. This is going to be a tough task for Atlanta to get to him but it’s certainly not an impossible task, either.
Friday, August 30, 6:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Reynaldo López (21 GS, 115.2 IP, 25.3 K%, 8.7 BB%, 2.02 ERA, 2.99 FIP)
At this point, López has blown past his career high in fWAR (he’s currently at 2.9 fWAR for the season) and could potentially clear it (2.4) by more than an entire point by the time he’s done. Just like Cristopher Sánchez, his HR/9 rate is very small at just 0.54 and you’ve really got to be doing something big if you’re able to homer off of López here in 2024. Fortunately, I’m not about to hard pivot to a Phillies player hitting a dinger off of López this season (since it hasn’t happened) but I am able to show you what happened when López faced the Phillies not too long ago:
Needless to say, I think we all will take a second helping of that performance — or in López’s case in particular, a third helping since he’s only given up one run over 12 innings pitched against the Phillies so far this season.
Ranger Suárez (21 GS, 124.1 IP, 24.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 2.82 ERA, 2.95 FIP)
Meanwhile, this will be Suárez’s third go-around with the Braves this season as well and the Braves have had their fair share of success against him so far this season. While the Phillies did pick up the win back in the olden days of March 31, the Braves did get him for three runs over five innings. However, Ozzie Albies was the one who hit a homer against him and obviously he’s not currently playing so you can’t really glean too much from that.
In fact, Suárez is probably thrilled that he doesn’t have to see Albies since Ozzie homered against him back on July 6 as well. Marcell Ozuna also got him for a big fly back then and the two of them combined for the five runs that Suárez gave up in that 5-1 win for the Braves. However, Jorge Soler has had a decent amount of success against him so far and Adam Duvall has also gotten the job done against him, historically. Maybe we’ll see Duvall get some playing time in this series?
Saturday, August 31, 7:15 p.m. ET (Fox)
Max Fried (24 GS, 131.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.24 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
Just like Morton, Fried is coming into this series by steadily finding his footing in terms of perfmance. He’s made it through five innings in each of his past four starts and he’s given up three runs or less in each of his past three starts. that includes an outing back on August 21 where Fried went seven innings and only gave up four hits and two runs against the Phillies. Atlanta’s starting pitching was a huge reason why the Braves were able to win that series and the Braves are obviously hoping that Fried can contniue to stay solid and make it another solid start against the Phillies.
The guy to watch out for this time is J.T. Realmuto. Realmuto usually enjoys hitting against the Braves but he’s really enjoyed hitting against Fried. He’s got three homers and nine RBIs against Fried over the course of his career and is sporting a .325 batting average and a 1.006 OPS against him. Trea Turner also has three homers against Fried with seven RBIs, a batting average north of .350 and an OPS over 1.000. It would be shocking if the Braves kept both of those guys quiet all weekend but who knows? Maybe this will be the time Fried shuts both of them down.
Zack Wheeler (24 GS, 131.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.24 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
The Braves are set to get familiar with their old foe once again and as usual, it’s probably going to be a tough night. Even though the Braves did win the game in their last outing against Wheeler, they still were only able to push two runs past him while he was out there for six innings. Additionally, Wheeler racked up eight strikeouts while he was out there. This wasn’t his best performance but it was still the tough effort that the Braves have come to expect from Wheeler while he’s out there.
One thing to watch out for is whether or not the Braves can get Wheeler for another long ball. Wheeler has given up at one homer in three of his past six starts (with Marcell Ozuna having one of those homers) and he even gave up three to the Yankees a month ago. That’s not to say that Wheeler has all of a sudden become homer-happy or anything like that but if we do see the Braves get on the board against this guy, then that might be the route to take.
Sunday, September 1, 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spencer Schwellenbach (24 GS, 131.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.24 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
The good news for Schwellenbach is that he did manage to keep the Twins off of the scoreboard in his most recent outing while striking out eight batters. On its face, that was a decent enough of an improvement off of his start against the Phillies where he gave up two runs and struck out nine. The bad news is that the rookie only lasted 4.2 innings and walked three batters, which is basically the equivalent of walking the entire ballpark for this guy.
With that being said, Schwellenbach has continued to be impressive over the course of his rookie season and he’s been very effective against the Phillies in his two starts against them so far this season. The Phillies have yet to really figure him out at this point and hopefully he continues to be one step ahead of them going forward.
Aaron Nola (24 GS, 131.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.24 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
Another old foe is set to face off with the Braves as Aaron Nola will be getting the ball for the series finale. While Nola has historically been an extremely tough customer for Atlanta to deal with and he’s coming off of a start where he pitched seven shutout innings against a good Houston team, the Braves are entering this game having already had three solid performances against him so far this season.
With that being said, the Phillies have won two of the three games that Nola has started against the Braves this season so it hasn’t all been sunshine and roses. Here in the fourth game (both in this series and in the season series between Nola and the Braves), there won’t be any more surprises. It’ll likely simply come down to who’s better on the day and here’s hoping that Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson can combine their individual levels of success against Nola on Sunday night.
Link to original article
