<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Angels" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vlzd1cp54IAfTKh_JMt1Yillv9k=/0x0:3441x2294/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73538586/2167313639.0.jpg">
Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
Beyond further injuries, August has created yet another form of torture for the Braves The Braves are now 9-10 in August. What’s weird about that? They were 13-14 in May, 13-12 in June, and 12-13 in July. Being vaguely around .500 is what they’ve done. Well, turns out, there is something new, and it’s even more annoying than the rest of the season has been so far. In short, like the title says: the Braves, despite injury and everything else, are now actually racking up a better performance than their opposition... and losing anyway.
This doesn’t need to be a long post, and we don’t need to talk about “expected” stats. The realm of the Braves’ misery has moved out of outputs not aligning to inputs. At this point, wins are not aligning to outputs.
Put simply, the Braves have now played 19 games in August. They have a higher wOBA than what their opponents have managed in 13 of them. To be clear: this is a final, result-level measure. Defense doesn’t factor in (except for explicit errors, of which the Braves haven’t had many, nor their opponents). In those 13 games, the Braves have gone 9-4. Again, to be crystal clear: they have only won 69 percent of the games in which they have better offensive outcomes than their opponents. This is absurd. They’ve had six games in which they had worse offensive outcomes than their opponents; they are winless in those contests, not managing to steal a single one.
Here’s a table. I included the xwOBAs for good measure, but again, I’m not even focusing on the xwOBAs here.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/__m6D_LOqr9rqTb86idXnv0215U=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25584894/Picture1.png">
The more you zoom in, the dumber it gets. All four of the losses at issue happened in the last 12 games; they’d be rolling with an 11-1 run if they could just stop losing games where they somehow have a better set of offensive outcomes than their opponents.
At this point, you might be wondering whether I am making too much out of nothing. After all, I haven’t presented anything about how other teams are faring. Maybe out-wOBAing your opponent isn’t a great predictor of wins. After all, outhomering your opponents only gets you a win 75-85 percent of the time; it’s not perfect. And out-xwOBAing them, fully divorced from any ball-toward-play outcome, is only indicative of a win about 70 percent of the time. So what makes this different? Well, let me just put it this way:
The Mets are also 9-10 in August. They are 9-1 in games where they out-wOBA their opponents, and 0-9 in the games where they don’t.
The Padres are 13-5 in August. They are 9-1 in games where they out-wOBA their opponents, and a miraculous, justice-for-their-2023 season, 4-4 in games where they don’t.
The Diamondbacks are 14-5 in August. They are 11-0 in games where they out-wOBA their opponents, and 3-5 in games where they don’t.
So, to recap: we are talking 75 games between these four teams in August. Of these, the wOBA advantage has aligned to winning the game in 62 of them. These teams are 42-6 when out-wOBAing their opponents; four of those six losses belong to the Braves.
That’s it; that’s the post.
It wasn’t enough to have the injuries. It wasn’t enough for the Braves to have what is now the fourth-biggest xwOBA underperformance in baseball (second-worst since the start of May). It wasn’t enough for the Braves to have the fifth-lowest hit rate on barrels, despite hitting the fifth-best barrels in the game (seriously, what the bleep bleep bleeping bleep). It wasn’t enough for the Braves to have a bottom-ten rate of barrels becoming homers, either.
The Braves have a top-10 xwOBA in August. Beyond that, they have a top-10 wOBA in August. Yes, the defense sucks, but they haven’t allowed a top-10 wOBA in the month. They should not be under .500 in August. They are. They have lost four games in a manner which rarely happens; they have done so in the span of 12 games, when it takes other teams a season’s worth of games to amass a similar quantity of losses of that nature.
The Braves are barely hanging on to a playoff spot. Baseball probably isn’t done unleashing fresh hells on them yet.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Angels" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vlzd1cp54IAfTKh_JMt1Yillv9k=/0x0:3441x2294/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73538586/2167313639.0.jpg">
Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
Beyond further injuries, August has created yet another form of torture for the Braves The Braves are now 9-10 in August. What’s weird about that? They were 13-14 in May, 13-12 in June, and 12-13 in July. Being vaguely around .500 is what they’ve done. Well, turns out, there is something new, and it’s even more annoying than the rest of the season has been so far. In short, like the title says: the Braves, despite injury and everything else, are now actually racking up a better performance than their opposition... and losing anyway.
This doesn’t need to be a long post, and we don’t need to talk about “expected” stats. The realm of the Braves’ misery has moved out of outputs not aligning to inputs. At this point, wins are not aligning to outputs.
Put simply, the Braves have now played 19 games in August. They have a higher wOBA than what their opponents have managed in 13 of them. To be clear: this is a final, result-level measure. Defense doesn’t factor in (except for explicit errors, of which the Braves haven’t had many, nor their opponents). In those 13 games, the Braves have gone 9-4. Again, to be crystal clear: they have only won 69 percent of the games in which they have better offensive outcomes than their opponents. This is absurd. They’ve had six games in which they had worse offensive outcomes than their opponents; they are winless in those contests, not managing to steal a single one.
Here’s a table. I included the xwOBAs for good measure, but again, I’m not even focusing on the xwOBAs here.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/__m6D_LOqr9rqTb86idXnv0215U=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25584894/Picture1.png">
The more you zoom in, the dumber it gets. All four of the losses at issue happened in the last 12 games; they’d be rolling with an 11-1 run if they could just stop losing games where they somehow have a better set of offensive outcomes than their opponents.
At this point, you might be wondering whether I am making too much out of nothing. After all, I haven’t presented anything about how other teams are faring. Maybe out-wOBAing your opponent isn’t a great predictor of wins. After all, outhomering your opponents only gets you a win 75-85 percent of the time; it’s not perfect. And out-xwOBAing them, fully divorced from any ball-toward-play outcome, is only indicative of a win about 70 percent of the time. So what makes this different? Well, let me just put it this way:
The Mets are also 9-10 in August. They are 9-1 in games where they out-wOBA their opponents, and 0-9 in the games where they don’t.
The Padres are 13-5 in August. They are 9-1 in games where they out-wOBA their opponents, and a miraculous, justice-for-their-2023 season, 4-4 in games where they don’t.
The Diamondbacks are 14-5 in August. They are 11-0 in games where they out-wOBA their opponents, and 3-5 in games where they don’t.
So, to recap: we are talking 75 games between these four teams in August. Of these, the wOBA advantage has aligned to winning the game in 62 of them. These teams are 42-6 when out-wOBAing their opponents; four of those six losses belong to the Braves.
That’s it; that’s the post.
It wasn’t enough to have the injuries. It wasn’t enough for the Braves to have what is now the fourth-biggest xwOBA underperformance in baseball (second-worst since the start of May). It wasn’t enough for the Braves to have the fifth-lowest hit rate on barrels, despite hitting the fifth-best barrels in the game (seriously, what the bleep bleep bleeping bleep). It wasn’t enough for the Braves to have a bottom-ten rate of barrels becoming homers, either.
The Braves have a top-10 xwOBA in August. Beyond that, they have a top-10 wOBA in August. Yes, the defense sucks, but they haven’t allowed a top-10 wOBA in the month. They should not be under .500 in August. They are. They have lost four games in a manner which rarely happens; they have done so in the span of 12 games, when it takes other teams a season’s worth of games to amass a similar quantity of losses of that nature.
The Braves are barely hanging on to a playoff spot. Baseball probably isn’t done unleashing fresh hells on them yet.
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