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With yet another major injury to a star player in the lineup, Atlanta will need their pitching to be great down the stretch. Here’s why you can have faith that the bullpen will do their part. The Braves bullpen has been exceptional this season. Even with the loss of A.J. Minter, we can likely expect it to be exceptional going forward.
On the surface, it’s easy to see that the Braves bullpen is very good. The TL;DR version of this whole article is that, as a group, the Braves bullpen is 3rd in MLB in ERA and 2nd in FIP on the season.
Digging deeper, you’ll find that any great bullpen has three key elements:
Strong depth
Multiple reliable late-inning options
Lockdown closer
Today, I’m here to tell you that the Braves have it all. Let’s dive in.
Depth
Extreme Chip Caray voice In today’s game, having two or three great relievers to bridge from your starters to your closer just isn’t enough. Relievers are often asked to enter tight games in the 5th or 6th inning before the team rolls out the big guns for the late innings. Also, when the team plays multiple close games in a row, you need your depth relievers to be able to take on meaningful late innings while the typical setup guys get a night off.
The Braves have substantial depth. By xERA, they have six relievers with at least 30 IP who have an xERA under 3.30. That’s more than any other team in baseball. If you lower the threshold to 3.00 xERA, the Braves and Padres are tied for the most with 4 RP apiece. By ERA, the Braves have 5 relievers with at least 30 IP and an ERA under 3.30. That is also tied with the Padres for the most in MLB.
So, let’s look at those depth arms. Snitker’s bullpen usage since A.J. Minter hit the IL suggests that Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, and Joe Jiménez are the primary choices to set up Raisel Iglesias for the 9th. That leaves Aaron Bummer, Luke Jackson, Jesse Chavez, and Grant Holmes as the depth guys.
Aaron Bummer has been sensational but it’s been masked by comically bad luck. Out of 178 qualified relievers this year, Bummer is 3rd in FIP, 3rd in xFIP, and 8th in SIERA. He’s combined the 19th best K-BB% with the 9th best GB%, and out of 374 total pitchers (starters and relievers) on the Statcast leaderboards, he is the only pitcher that has not given up multiple barrels this year. That’s right — out of 126 batted balls vs. Aaron Bummer, only one was registered as a barrel.
Despite Bummer’s inputs telling us that he should be a top reliever, his 3.63 ERA (while still solid) ranks just 94th among qualified relievers. So, what gives?
The answer is simple but frustrating. Bummer has the worst BABIP in baseball by a mile. Despite being in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate, his .424 BABIP is more than 30 points higher than the next highest RP. The difference between Bummer’s BABIP and the 4th highest BABIP is the same as the difference between the 4th highest BABIP and the 65th highest BABIP. These numbers should regress going forward, and I’d expect Bummer to find himself in the mix for high-leverage innings by the end of the year.
Grant Holmes has been excellent in his first 45 innings in the big leagues, posting a highly encouraging 30.1% CSW (% of pitches thrown that resulted in a called or swinging strike) and 15.3% SwStr (% of pitches thrown that resulted in a swinging strike) — both of which rank in the 80th percentile or better among big league pitchers with at least 40 IP. He also threw 7 innings in his last outing — a start in San Francisco — so he’s certainly capable of handling multiple innings.
As far as the last two names on a pitching depth chart go, Jesse Chavez and Luke Jackson aren’t so bad. Luke’s had a brutal reintroduction to Atlanta thus far, but he strikes people out and gets ground balls — two highly coveted traits among big league pitchers. And while Jesse’s smoke and mirrors have become significantly less smoky and reflective of late, he still has managed to wave that black magic wand that he keeps in Atlanta to conjure up a 2.85 ERA on the season that is far, far lower than all of his peripherals suggest it should be. At the very least, Luke and Jesse bring immaculate vibes wherever they go.
Reliable Late-Inning Setup Relievers
Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, and Joe Jiménez. Let’s talk about them.
We’ll start with the bad. Pierce has really been struggling in August with 5 walks, 4 strikeouts, and 5 ER in 6.2 IP. Before August, he had a 2.78 ERA and 2.63 FIP on the season and was a trusted back-end stalwart. But until he breaks out of this slump and recovers his swing-and-miss stuff, Snitker may opt to give some of Pierce’s high leverage innings to the likes of Aaron Bummer and perhaps Grant Holmes.
Joe Jiménez has had another terrific year and seems to have fully cemented himself as the preferred 8th inning arm in close games. In his first year with Atlanta (and his last year in Detroit in 2022), Jiménez was a K-BB% god, striking out 30%+ of the hitters he faced and walking under 6%. This year he’s under 27% K and over 8% BB, but his CSW% and SwStr% are stronger than ever (which suggests that more Ks are on the way) and he’s been superb at avoiding damage on contact (97th percentile Barrel%, 99th percentile Hard-Hit%). All of that combines for a pitcher with a 2.56 xERA that ranks in the top 10 of all 375 pitchers on Statcast’s leaderboard.
And then there’s Dylan Lee. We simply must discuss World Series Game 4 starter Dylan Lee. If you were somehow completely blind to the way that hitters react to his pitches, you might think he has the worst stuff in the big leagues. He has decent ride on his fastball, but it averages just 92 mph. His slider is way below average in terms of vertical and horizontal movement, as is his changeup.
Yet, some of the numbers he’s put up are comparable to the nastiest relievers the game has ever seen. His 1.85 ERA ranks 16th out of 178 qualified relievers, which isn’t surprising because his ERA since the start of his first full season in 2022 ranks 13th out of 174. His 2.52 xERA ranks 7th out of 374 qualified pitchers on the Statcast leaderboards. He had a bit of a rocky start to the year with 7 walks and 9 strikeouts in 12.2 IP through the end of April. But since May 1st, he’s been as dominant as any pitcher in baseball, posting a 32.4% K and 4.8% BB to go alongside a 1.98 ERA and 2.23 FIP.
The true absurdity of Dylan Lee, however, can be found in his plate discipline metrics. FanGraphs has plate discipline stats dating back to 2005, and in that time, there have been 1,629 pitchers to pitch at least 100 innings. Looking at Dylan Lee’s full career, he ranks fifth all-time in SwStr% and FIRST ALL-TIME in O-Swing%. Put another way — as of right now, Dylan Lee is the greatest pitcher on record at getting hitters to swing at pitches outside of the zone. The guy in second is Emmanuel Clase, and he throws 100 mph cutters. Like, WHAT?!?!
Lockdown Closer
Alas, even the Great and Powerful Dylan Lee is still playing second fiddle to closer Raisel Iglesias.
While Iglesias has seemed pretty steady all year, the beginning of his 2024 campaign actually held within it some cause for concern. Iggy’s getting older — he’s 34 now — and through his first 28 appearances, he had just a 18.9% strikeout rate, more than 10 percentage points lower than what it had been in his first year and a half with Atlanta. He still had a solid 2.70 ERA in that time, but the peripherals suggested that regression was coming.
But Iglesias has gone completely insane in the last two months. Over his past 19 appearances, he has 37.7% K, 2.9% BB, and 0 earned runs. He’s been basically perfect for two months now. Totally automatic. Lockdown. Exactly what you want in your closer.
And really, that’s what we’ve come to expect from Iggy. Here are his ranks among 111 qualified relievers since his first appearance with Atlanta after the 2022 trade deadline:
ERA - 2nd
FIP - 5th
K-BB% - 13th
fWAR - 8th
SV - 9th (despite setting up for Kenley Jansen in the second half of 2022)
There you have it — that’s the bullpen as it currently stands. They’ve got a stone-cold killer at closer, some impeccable setup guys, and legitimate depth. And with the baseball gods claiming Austin Riley as their latest victim as they continue to bulldoze their way through the Braves lineup, there’s no doubt they’ll need their pitching to be stronger than ever if they want to find themselves playing baseball in October.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Angels" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/oCnUIi5FznXr3iavDTxRYc5RZAo=/0x0:5574x3716/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73532893/2167180442.0.jpg">
Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
With yet another major injury to a star player in the lineup, Atlanta will need their pitching to be great down the stretch. Here’s why you can have faith that the bullpen will do their part. The Braves bullpen has been exceptional this season. Even with the loss of A.J. Minter, we can likely expect it to be exceptional going forward.
On the surface, it’s easy to see that the Braves bullpen is very good. The TL;DR version of this whole article is that, as a group, the Braves bullpen is 3rd in MLB in ERA and 2nd in FIP on the season.
Digging deeper, you’ll find that any great bullpen has three key elements:
Strong depth
Multiple reliable late-inning options
Lockdown closer
Today, I’m here to tell you that the Braves have it all. Let’s dive in.
Depth
Extreme Chip Caray voice In today’s game, having two or three great relievers to bridge from your starters to your closer just isn’t enough. Relievers are often asked to enter tight games in the 5th or 6th inning before the team rolls out the big guns for the late innings. Also, when the team plays multiple close games in a row, you need your depth relievers to be able to take on meaningful late innings while the typical setup guys get a night off.
The Braves have substantial depth. By xERA, they have six relievers with at least 30 IP who have an xERA under 3.30. That’s more than any other team in baseball. If you lower the threshold to 3.00 xERA, the Braves and Padres are tied for the most with 4 RP apiece. By ERA, the Braves have 5 relievers with at least 30 IP and an ERA under 3.30. That is also tied with the Padres for the most in MLB.
So, let’s look at those depth arms. Snitker’s bullpen usage since A.J. Minter hit the IL suggests that Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, and Joe Jiménez are the primary choices to set up Raisel Iglesias for the 9th. That leaves Aaron Bummer, Luke Jackson, Jesse Chavez, and Grant Holmes as the depth guys.
Aaron Bummer has been sensational but it’s been masked by comically bad luck. Out of 178 qualified relievers this year, Bummer is 3rd in FIP, 3rd in xFIP, and 8th in SIERA. He’s combined the 19th best K-BB% with the 9th best GB%, and out of 374 total pitchers (starters and relievers) on the Statcast leaderboards, he is the only pitcher that has not given up multiple barrels this year. That’s right — out of 126 batted balls vs. Aaron Bummer, only one was registered as a barrel.
Despite Bummer’s inputs telling us that he should be a top reliever, his 3.63 ERA (while still solid) ranks just 94th among qualified relievers. So, what gives?
The answer is simple but frustrating. Bummer has the worst BABIP in baseball by a mile. Despite being in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate, his .424 BABIP is more than 30 points higher than the next highest RP. The difference between Bummer’s BABIP and the 4th highest BABIP is the same as the difference between the 4th highest BABIP and the 65th highest BABIP. These numbers should regress going forward, and I’d expect Bummer to find himself in the mix for high-leverage innings by the end of the year.
Grant Holmes has been excellent in his first 45 innings in the big leagues, posting a highly encouraging 30.1% CSW (% of pitches thrown that resulted in a called or swinging strike) and 15.3% SwStr (% of pitches thrown that resulted in a swinging strike) — both of which rank in the 80th percentile or better among big league pitchers with at least 40 IP. He also threw 7 innings in his last outing — a start in San Francisco — so he’s certainly capable of handling multiple innings.
As far as the last two names on a pitching depth chart go, Jesse Chavez and Luke Jackson aren’t so bad. Luke’s had a brutal reintroduction to Atlanta thus far, but he strikes people out and gets ground balls — two highly coveted traits among big league pitchers. And while Jesse’s smoke and mirrors have become significantly less smoky and reflective of late, he still has managed to wave that black magic wand that he keeps in Atlanta to conjure up a 2.85 ERA on the season that is far, far lower than all of his peripherals suggest it should be. At the very least, Luke and Jesse bring immaculate vibes wherever they go.
Reliable Late-Inning Setup Relievers
Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, and Joe Jiménez. Let’s talk about them.
We’ll start with the bad. Pierce has really been struggling in August with 5 walks, 4 strikeouts, and 5 ER in 6.2 IP. Before August, he had a 2.78 ERA and 2.63 FIP on the season and was a trusted back-end stalwart. But until he breaks out of this slump and recovers his swing-and-miss stuff, Snitker may opt to give some of Pierce’s high leverage innings to the likes of Aaron Bummer and perhaps Grant Holmes.
Joe Jiménez has had another terrific year and seems to have fully cemented himself as the preferred 8th inning arm in close games. In his first year with Atlanta (and his last year in Detroit in 2022), Jiménez was a K-BB% god, striking out 30%+ of the hitters he faced and walking under 6%. This year he’s under 27% K and over 8% BB, but his CSW% and SwStr% are stronger than ever (which suggests that more Ks are on the way) and he’s been superb at avoiding damage on contact (97th percentile Barrel%, 99th percentile Hard-Hit%). All of that combines for a pitcher with a 2.56 xERA that ranks in the top 10 of all 375 pitchers on Statcast’s leaderboard.
And then there’s Dylan Lee. We simply must discuss World Series Game 4 starter Dylan Lee. If you were somehow completely blind to the way that hitters react to his pitches, you might think he has the worst stuff in the big leagues. He has decent ride on his fastball, but it averages just 92 mph. His slider is way below average in terms of vertical and horizontal movement, as is his changeup.
Yet, some of the numbers he’s put up are comparable to the nastiest relievers the game has ever seen. His 1.85 ERA ranks 16th out of 178 qualified relievers, which isn’t surprising because his ERA since the start of his first full season in 2022 ranks 13th out of 174. His 2.52 xERA ranks 7th out of 374 qualified pitchers on the Statcast leaderboards. He had a bit of a rocky start to the year with 7 walks and 9 strikeouts in 12.2 IP through the end of April. But since May 1st, he’s been as dominant as any pitcher in baseball, posting a 32.4% K and 4.8% BB to go alongside a 1.98 ERA and 2.23 FIP.
The true absurdity of Dylan Lee, however, can be found in his plate discipline metrics. FanGraphs has plate discipline stats dating back to 2005, and in that time, there have been 1,629 pitchers to pitch at least 100 innings. Looking at Dylan Lee’s full career, he ranks fifth all-time in SwStr% and FIRST ALL-TIME in O-Swing%. Put another way — as of right now, Dylan Lee is the greatest pitcher on record at getting hitters to swing at pitches outside of the zone. The guy in second is Emmanuel Clase, and he throws 100 mph cutters. Like, WHAT?!?!
Lockdown Closer
Alas, even the Great and Powerful Dylan Lee is still playing second fiddle to closer Raisel Iglesias.
While Iglesias has seemed pretty steady all year, the beginning of his 2024 campaign actually held within it some cause for concern. Iggy’s getting older — he’s 34 now — and through his first 28 appearances, he had just a 18.9% strikeout rate, more than 10 percentage points lower than what it had been in his first year and a half with Atlanta. He still had a solid 2.70 ERA in that time, but the peripherals suggested that regression was coming.
But Iglesias has gone completely insane in the last two months. Over his past 19 appearances, he has 37.7% K, 2.9% BB, and 0 earned runs. He’s been basically perfect for two months now. Totally automatic. Lockdown. Exactly what you want in your closer.
And really, that’s what we’ve come to expect from Iggy. Here are his ranks among 111 qualified relievers since his first appearance with Atlanta after the 2022 trade deadline:
ERA - 2nd
FIP - 5th
K-BB% - 13th
fWAR - 8th
SV - 9th (despite setting up for Kenley Jansen in the second half of 2022)
There you have it — that’s the bullpen as it currently stands. They’ve got a stone-cold killer at closer, some impeccable setup guys, and legitimate depth. And with the baseball gods claiming Austin Riley as their latest victim as they continue to bulldoze their way through the Braves lineup, there’s no doubt they’ll need their pitching to be stronger than ever if they want to find themselves playing baseball in October.
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