<img alt="Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xbfWOfQzF0Igym-3YBfPosd-ahg=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73528827/2166825378.0.jpg">
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
The Braves will look to continue to hang on to, or extend, their hold on the last NL playoff spot on Sunday against the Angels The 2024 Atlanta Braves continue to do 2024 Atlanta Braves things, something that’s shown no sign of abating on this road trip. Now 65-58, they control their destiny in both a macro and micro sense: with a win today, they can secure a series victory, a winning West Coast road trip (5-4 so far), and one more day of definitively leading for the NL’s final playoff spot; with a loss, they can drop yet another series they should have won, guarantee another mediocre ten-game stretch, and put themselves in the jeopardy of falling out of a playoff spot as early as Monday.
Of course, it’s hard to really lay everything about the Braves’ mediocre play at their feet. On this road trip, for example, they have a .350 xwOBA (that’s good!) and a .359 wOBA (even better!) while having allowed just a .290 xwOBA (amazing!) and .321 wOBA (meh). Some of that gap is the poor defense they’ve played, but some of it just been Ye Olde Baseball Stuff. Either way, out-wOBAing your opponents by nearly .040 in five games shouldn’t lead to a 5-4 record, but that’s the sort of thing that’s been happening to the Braves lately. Specifically, they’ve out-wOBAed the opposition in eight of nine games on the road trip so far, but have only gone 5-3 in the process — and we’re not even talking about inputs, here!
Baseball Gods-derived punishment for hubris aside, this game might hinge on which version of Charlie Morton the Braves get. Morton comes into the game with a 105 ERA-, 117 FIP-, and 99 xFIP-, which kind of tells you all you need to know, and kind of doesn’t. What it does tell you is that Morton has been absolutely murdered by the home run ball; what it doesn’t tell you is that rather than a steady diet of longballs being fed to opposing batters, they’ve come in clusters. Morton has allowed 12 homers in seven starts since the beginning of July, but two of those games have been homerless, and his most recent outing featured just one longball. The problem has been the other four games — first a couple of consecutive two-homer bad starts against the Giants and Diamondbacks, and then, alternating with homerless outings, absolute drubbings of the three-homer and four-homer variety at the hands of the Mets and Brewers.
Sometimes, when guys are giving up tons of homers, it has to do with a bifurcation in their pitching approach: they can either nibble and avoid the big blow but end up with terrible peripherals, or they can go after guys and occasionally get burned (a la Spencer Schwellenbach). For Morton, though, that hasn’t been the case: when he struggles in general, he’s been giving up homers; when he’s on his game, the ball stays in the yard and the peripherals are pretty.
Anyway, that’s all a roundabout way of saying that I have no idea which Morton the Braves are going to get. For their sake, and his sake, hopefully it’s the good version, but the bad version just been even more present lately. Also, Angel Stadium is really homer-friendly, so that sucks for Morton, but may play in the Braves’ favor.
Another thing that may play in the Braves’ favor is that the Angels are starting Jack Kochanowicz, who was called up from Double-A earlier this season and has had an absolutely miserable time in three starts so far. He gave up a homer with a 1/0 K/BB ratio across three innings in his MLB debut but was charged with five runs in the process. Nine days later, he lasted four innings, gave up a homer with a 4/3 K/BB ratio, and was charged with seven runs. Then, after a stint in the minors, he came back and had a weird outing where he lasted 7 2⁄3 innings against the Nats, but gave up a homer and had just a 2/1 K/BB ratio, but was only charged with two runs in the process.
Kochanowicz is kind of an oddball for a starting role because he basically throws a 96 mph sinker and an 86 mph “curveball” that’s really more of a slider/cutter, and that’s about it. It’s pretty much a “reliever you ask to get a ground ball” profile that looks like it could benefit from way more curves, but that isn’t how he’s pitched anyone so far.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, August 18, 4:07 p.m. ET
Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, California
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Ch. 188 / Online
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xbfWOfQzF0Igym-3YBfPosd-ahg=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73528827/2166825378.0.jpg">
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
The Braves will look to continue to hang on to, or extend, their hold on the last NL playoff spot on Sunday against the Angels The 2024 Atlanta Braves continue to do 2024 Atlanta Braves things, something that’s shown no sign of abating on this road trip. Now 65-58, they control their destiny in both a macro and micro sense: with a win today, they can secure a series victory, a winning West Coast road trip (5-4 so far), and one more day of definitively leading for the NL’s final playoff spot; with a loss, they can drop yet another series they should have won, guarantee another mediocre ten-game stretch, and put themselves in the jeopardy of falling out of a playoff spot as early as Monday.
Of course, it’s hard to really lay everything about the Braves’ mediocre play at their feet. On this road trip, for example, they have a .350 xwOBA (that’s good!) and a .359 wOBA (even better!) while having allowed just a .290 xwOBA (amazing!) and .321 wOBA (meh). Some of that gap is the poor defense they’ve played, but some of it just been Ye Olde Baseball Stuff. Either way, out-wOBAing your opponents by nearly .040 in five games shouldn’t lead to a 5-4 record, but that’s the sort of thing that’s been happening to the Braves lately. Specifically, they’ve out-wOBAed the opposition in eight of nine games on the road trip so far, but have only gone 5-3 in the process — and we’re not even talking about inputs, here!
Baseball Gods-derived punishment for hubris aside, this game might hinge on which version of Charlie Morton the Braves get. Morton comes into the game with a 105 ERA-, 117 FIP-, and 99 xFIP-, which kind of tells you all you need to know, and kind of doesn’t. What it does tell you is that Morton has been absolutely murdered by the home run ball; what it doesn’t tell you is that rather than a steady diet of longballs being fed to opposing batters, they’ve come in clusters. Morton has allowed 12 homers in seven starts since the beginning of July, but two of those games have been homerless, and his most recent outing featured just one longball. The problem has been the other four games — first a couple of consecutive two-homer bad starts against the Giants and Diamondbacks, and then, alternating with homerless outings, absolute drubbings of the three-homer and four-homer variety at the hands of the Mets and Brewers.
Sometimes, when guys are giving up tons of homers, it has to do with a bifurcation in their pitching approach: they can either nibble and avoid the big blow but end up with terrible peripherals, or they can go after guys and occasionally get burned (a la Spencer Schwellenbach). For Morton, though, that hasn’t been the case: when he struggles in general, he’s been giving up homers; when he’s on his game, the ball stays in the yard and the peripherals are pretty.
Anyway, that’s all a roundabout way of saying that I have no idea which Morton the Braves are going to get. For their sake, and his sake, hopefully it’s the good version, but the bad version just been even more present lately. Also, Angel Stadium is really homer-friendly, so that sucks for Morton, but may play in the Braves’ favor.
Another thing that may play in the Braves’ favor is that the Angels are starting Jack Kochanowicz, who was called up from Double-A earlier this season and has had an absolutely miserable time in three starts so far. He gave up a homer with a 1/0 K/BB ratio across three innings in his MLB debut but was charged with five runs in the process. Nine days later, he lasted four innings, gave up a homer with a 4/3 K/BB ratio, and was charged with seven runs. Then, after a stint in the minors, he came back and had a weird outing where he lasted 7 2⁄3 innings against the Nats, but gave up a homer and had just a 2/1 K/BB ratio, but was only charged with two runs in the process.
Kochanowicz is kind of an oddball for a starting role because he basically throws a 96 mph sinker and an 86 mph “curveball” that’s really more of a slider/cutter, and that’s about it. It’s pretty much a “reliever you ask to get a ground ball” profile that looks like it could benefit from way more curves, but that isn’t how he’s pitched anyone so far.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, August 18, 4:07 p.m. ET
Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, California
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Ch. 188 / Online
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