<img alt="Michael Harris II of the Atlanta Braves hitting a single vs. the Tampa Bay Rays on June 14th, 2024" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0jbzS8yMliu2F1McBhDC9Q-FVYY=/0x0:6499x4333/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73518634/2156968388.0.jpg">
Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
Here’s how the center fielder’s return will impact the rest of the roster. Finally, some good news. The Braves are set to receive a boost on Wednesday with CF Michael Harris II returning from a hamstring strain after missing exactly two months. And boy howdy, could this team use a boost.
It’s hard to overstate how important Harris is for this Braves team going forward. Since he came up limping while running the bases on June 14th, the Braves outfield has been nothing short of a disaster. They’ve slashed a collective .209/.258/.377, good for a MLB-worst -1.3 fWAR and 73 wRC+. In that time, Atlanta’s outfield is 29th in BB% and 30th in K%. Nine different players have received time in the OF - here’s a breakdown of how the playing time was doled out:
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
In a word - yikes.
The ripple effect of Harris's return will massively improve the outfield situation before you even consider what Money Mike himself will bring to the lineup. First off, the Braves can go back to a Kelenic/Duvall LF platoon with Harris in center and Soler in right. Kelenic has been roughly average vs. RHP with a 98 wRC+ on the season (93 since Harris was injured) but has a brutal 52 wRC+ vs. LHP (56 since Harris was injured). Duvall, meanwhile, has combined a strong 128 wRC+ vs. LHP this year (although it is an ugly 45 wRC+ vs. LHP after the Harris injury) with a ghastly 10 wRC+ vs. RHP (43 while Harris was out).
Now, Duvall before 2024 did not have significant career platoon splits, but we’ve seen players in their mid to late 30s devolve into platoon bats before (Albert Pujols being a prime example). Kelenic, on the other hand, has pretty dire platoon splits for his career. Overall, a return to the originally intended Kelenic-Duvall platoon seems like a much better situation than rolling them both out as everyday players. Plus, this should eliminate nearly all of the playing time that has been going to the likes of Laureano and the recently DFA’d Eddie Rosario.
Harris will also provide the Braves with some much-needed relief on defense. Since his injury, Braves opponents have a .358 batting average on line drives and fly balls - that’s the second highest mark in the NL behind only Colorado, who famously play half of their games in BABIP paradise. Soler has been a defensive nightmare so far (-3 Outs Above Average in only 11 games). Rosario (-1 OAA with Atlanta), Kelenic (-3 OAA), and Laureano (-3 OAA) have all been below average, leaving Duvall (+1 OAA) as the only outfielder with significant playing time and a positive overall contribution on defense. Frankly, it’s been miserable to watch. Harris, meanwhile, still leads all Braves outfielders with +3 OAA despite spending 60 days on the IL. And with Soler locked into everyday duties in one of the corners, having a rangy center fielder is more important now than ever.
And finally, the bat. There’s no denying that Harris was struggling before the injury, hitting just .250/.295/.358 with a 80 wRC+. But he has a career 115 wRC+, and even in his pre-injury struggles, his .271 xBA and .398 xSLG would suggest he had been somewhat unlucky. And while it’s a small sample size and may not ultimately matter, it’s definitely good to see that Harris was swinging the bat well during his rehab assignment (11.5% BB, 11.5% K, .435/.500/.565, 1 HR, 178 wRC+ in 26 plate appearances). Adding another left-handed bat to the lineup will also be crucial, as the Braves rank 12th in MLB with a 117 wRC+ vs. LHP since Harris’ injury and 22nd in MLB with a 96 wRC+ vs. RHP since the injury.
It will be interesting to see where the Braves deploy Harris in the lineup. Before his injury (and after Acuña Jr.’s), Harris was leading off vs. RHP. But they’ve been rolling with Soler, Riley, Ozuna, and Olson in the top four spots since the trade deadline, and I’d expect Soler to hold that leadoff spot given that he’s put up a .400+ OBP since he returned to Atlanta. If they keep the Top 4 as is, I’d expect Brian Snitker to bat Harris 6th vs. RHP (with d’Arnaud 5th when he plays, Arcia 5th when Murphy plays) and 7th vs. LHP (behind Murphy/d’Arnaud and Arcia). There’s also the possibility that they bump Olson up to third and Ozuna down to fourth to spread the lefties out a bit more across the lineup, in which case you may see Harris hitting fifth vs. RHP. Thankfully, we’ll only have to wait one more day to find out.
<img alt="Michael Harris II of the Atlanta Braves hitting a single vs. the Tampa Bay Rays on June 14th, 2024" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0jbzS8yMliu2F1McBhDC9Q-FVYY=/0x0:6499x4333/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73518634/2156968388.0.jpg">
Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
Here’s how the center fielder’s return will impact the rest of the roster. Finally, some good news. The Braves are set to receive a boost on Wednesday with CF Michael Harris II returning from a hamstring strain after missing exactly two months. And boy howdy, could this team use a boost.
It’s hard to overstate how important Harris is for this Braves team going forward. Since he came up limping while running the bases on June 14th, the Braves outfield has been nothing short of a disaster. They’ve slashed a collective .209/.258/.377, good for a MLB-worst -1.3 fWAR and 73 wRC+. In that time, Atlanta’s outfield is 29th in BB% and 30th in K%. Nine different players have received time in the OF - here’s a breakdown of how the playing time was doled out:
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
In a word - yikes.
The ripple effect of Harris's return will massively improve the outfield situation before you even consider what Money Mike himself will bring to the lineup. First off, the Braves can go back to a Kelenic/Duvall LF platoon with Harris in center and Soler in right. Kelenic has been roughly average vs. RHP with a 98 wRC+ on the season (93 since Harris was injured) but has a brutal 52 wRC+ vs. LHP (56 since Harris was injured). Duvall, meanwhile, has combined a strong 128 wRC+ vs. LHP this year (although it is an ugly 45 wRC+ vs. LHP after the Harris injury) with a ghastly 10 wRC+ vs. RHP (43 while Harris was out).
Now, Duvall before 2024 did not have significant career platoon splits, but we’ve seen players in their mid to late 30s devolve into platoon bats before (Albert Pujols being a prime example). Kelenic, on the other hand, has pretty dire platoon splits for his career. Overall, a return to the originally intended Kelenic-Duvall platoon seems like a much better situation than rolling them both out as everyday players. Plus, this should eliminate nearly all of the playing time that has been going to the likes of Laureano and the recently DFA’d Eddie Rosario.
Harris will also provide the Braves with some much-needed relief on defense. Since his injury, Braves opponents have a .358 batting average on line drives and fly balls - that’s the second highest mark in the NL behind only Colorado, who famously play half of their games in BABIP paradise. Soler has been a defensive nightmare so far (-3 Outs Above Average in only 11 games). Rosario (-1 OAA with Atlanta), Kelenic (-3 OAA), and Laureano (-3 OAA) have all been below average, leaving Duvall (+1 OAA) as the only outfielder with significant playing time and a positive overall contribution on defense. Frankly, it’s been miserable to watch. Harris, meanwhile, still leads all Braves outfielders with +3 OAA despite spending 60 days on the IL. And with Soler locked into everyday duties in one of the corners, having a rangy center fielder is more important now than ever.
And finally, the bat. There’s no denying that Harris was struggling before the injury, hitting just .250/.295/.358 with a 80 wRC+. But he has a career 115 wRC+, and even in his pre-injury struggles, his .271 xBA and .398 xSLG would suggest he had been somewhat unlucky. And while it’s a small sample size and may not ultimately matter, it’s definitely good to see that Harris was swinging the bat well during his rehab assignment (11.5% BB, 11.5% K, .435/.500/.565, 1 HR, 178 wRC+ in 26 plate appearances). Adding another left-handed bat to the lineup will also be crucial, as the Braves rank 12th in MLB with a 117 wRC+ vs. LHP since Harris’ injury and 22nd in MLB with a 96 wRC+ vs. RHP since the injury.
It will be interesting to see where the Braves deploy Harris in the lineup. Before his injury (and after Acuña Jr.’s), Harris was leading off vs. RHP. But they’ve been rolling with Soler, Riley, Ozuna, and Olson in the top four spots since the trade deadline, and I’d expect Soler to hold that leadoff spot given that he’s put up a .400+ OBP since he returned to Atlanta. If they keep the Top 4 as is, I’d expect Brian Snitker to bat Harris 6th vs. RHP (with d’Arnaud 5th when he plays, Arcia 5th when Murphy plays) and 7th vs. LHP (behind Murphy/d’Arnaud and Arcia). There’s also the possibility that they bump Olson up to third and Ozuna down to fourth to spread the lefties out a bit more across the lineup, in which case you may see Harris hitting fifth vs. RHP. Thankfully, we’ll only have to wait one more day to find out.
Link to original article
