<img alt="Detroit Tigers v San Francisco Giants" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bQIkxTgiq4VL0yZR64ygU31_lcM=/0x0:4800x3200/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73515986/2166229365.0.jpg">
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
The Braves will continue their road trip Monday with a big series against the San Francisco Giants.
After disappointing start to their road trip, the Atlanta Braves will make the trip to San Francisco where they will take on the suddenly surging Giants in a four-game series. The Braves come in (still) reeling after dropping two of three to the Colorado Rockies. Atlanta had an 8-2 lead in the eighth inning of Sunday’s game but were unable to hold it in a 9-8 loss. They are just 3-7 in August and are in a battle with several teams for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
If there is any silver lining for the Braves in their series in Colorado, it was that their offense has continued to show improvement. New addition and former Giant, Jorge Soler homered four times in the series at Coors Field and has sparked Atlanta’s lineup from the top of the order. Matt Olson set a new career high with six runs batted in during Saturday’s game and is swinging it much better in August. Austin Riley has a 1.085 OPS in August and Marcell Ozuna is competing for a Triple Crown in the National League. However, that offensive uptick hasn’t resulted in an uptick in wins. Atlanta’s pitching staff has been a strength for most of the season but is dead last in the National League with a 7.16 ERA in August.
The thing is, though, that while the Braves ran into horrendous ball-in-play luck while the offense struggled, that twist of fate has simply switched to the pitching staff. The team has a 170 ERA- in August, which is dead last in MLB. Their FIP- isn’t great in August, either, as a 109 mark is 21st in MLB. But, their xFIP- for the month is a fourth-best-in-MLB 82. Basically, the team is dealing with the most absurd garbage on the run non-prevention side you’ve probably ever seen through ten games: a .434 BABIP-against and a 22.1 percent HR/FB. Both of those are tops in MLB in August, while their strand rate is second-worst in MLB, which makes sense given the other two numbers.
If you focus on quality of contact, yes, the Braves’ .335 xwOBA-against in August is eighth-worst in MLB. But, opponents are outhitting it against them by .054, which is 50 percent larger than the gap experienced by the team with the second-highest such deviation. At a time when the offense is finally having things go its way for once (eighth-highest xwOBA, fifth-highest wOBA, fifth-highest xwOBA overperformance), it just sucks that this is happening.
Just to be very clear:
Braves batters in August: .355 wOBA, .333 xwOBA
Braves pitchers in August: .389 wOBA-against, .335 xwOBA-against
That should be more like a .500 team, not a 3-7 team. That said, the Braves have been the worst fielding team in MLB in August after being more middle-of-the-pack earlier, so that probably moves the needle somewhat, but it’s still awful to see the poor luck just jump from the hitting to the run prevention as soon as the bats picked it up.
One of the teams that the Braves are battling for that final playoff spot in the NL is the Giants who saw a four-game winning streak end Sunday with a loss to the Tigers. Despite that loss, the Giants have won seven of 10 to climb back into Wild Card contention. San Francisco comes into the series with a 61-59 record but are 35-24 at Oracle Park.
The Giants have been middle of the pack offensively and in terms of position player fWAR, but have really struggled on the pitching side, where they are 27th in fWAR overall, with bottom ten placements by both the rotation and bullpen. They’ve been able to go on a run in August because the pitching staff has been somewhat better, though still not above-average; needless to say, their 7-3 run in August has been due to good sequencing and the like on and above their production. For the season, the Braves are now 61-56 with a 62-55 Pythagorean Expectation and a 63-54 BaseRuns record; the Giants are 61-59 with a 59-61 Pythagorean Expectation and a 58-62 BaseRuns record.
The Giants took two of three in Atlanta earlier this year, holding the Braves to eight runs in those three games.
Monday, August 12, 9:45 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Chris Sale (21 GS, 127.2 IP, 32.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, 2.75 ERA, 2.25 FIP)
Chris Sale will get the ball for Atlanta in the series opener Monday and will be looking to bounce back from a rare rough outing, though as you probably gathered from the notes above, it wasn’t really his fault. Sale was charged with nine hits and three runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Brewers. Only two of the runs were earned and he recorded his fourth double-digit strikeout game, but all the traffic on the bases led to an elevated pitch count. He had a .692 BABIP-against in the game, which... yeah. (.258 xwOBA-against, .388 wOBA-against.) Sale faced the Giants back on July 3 where he was charged with one run and struck out nine in six innings, helping the Braves get their only win of that series. Sale has a 2.70 ERA and a 2.35 FIP in 66 2/3 innings on the road this season. He remains MLB’s fWAR leader among starting pitchers despite having fewer starts than essentially everyone behind him.
Blake Snell (12 GS, 62.2 IP, 31.4 K%, 9.8 BB%, 4.31 ERA, 3.11 FIP)
Sale will face off against lefty Blake Snell in a marquee pitching matchup in the series opener. Snell was one of the biggest free agents available last offseason and eventually settled on the Giants. He’s battled injuries throughout the season but has settled in after the All-Star break with a 1.67 ERA and a 2.21 FIP combined over his last four starts. Snell faced the Braves twice last season and struggled, allowing nine hits, seven walks and six runs in 8 2/3 innings across two starts.
On the whole, it’s been kind of a bizarre season for Snell. He’s had many years where he’s run ERAs substantially better than his peripherals, and that was also the case last year. But, this year, his ERA is super-inflated relative to his peripherals, and especially relative to his quality of contact allowed. He has a career-best xERA, but a career-worst ERA and ERA- at this time.
Tuesday, August 13, (Bally Sports South)
Charlie Morton (21 GS, 114.2 IP, 23.0 K%, 8.8 BB%, 4.47 ERA, 4.75 FIP)
Charlie Morton will take his turn in Tuesday’s game and will be looking for better results after a rough outing in his last start. Morton didn’t make it out of the third inning in his last outing against the Brewers where he was charged with eight runs, including a career-high four homers. Morton has alternated good and bad outings for nearly a month but the Braves need him to settle in for the stretch run. Home runs have been a major problem of late for Morton who has given up seven in his last 11 1/3 innings. He’s shed about a third of his seasonal fWAR value in his last three starts alone, despite mixing a good outing in there, because he’s now gotten blasted off the surface of the planet in two of his last three tries. Morton faced San Francisco on July 4 at Truist Park where he was charged with three earned runs and struck out five in 5 1/3 innings. Those runs came on homers in what was another poor outing for him.
Kyle Harrison (20 GS, 106.0 IP, 21.7 K%, 7.6 BB%, 4.08 ERA, 4.22 FIP)
Young lefty Kyle Harrison will matchup against Morton in Tuesday’s game. Harrison is in his first full season in the majors and has been a solid rotation option for the Giants. He has struggled results-wise so far in August allowing six runs, including four homers, in 3 2/3 innings in Cincinnati. He followed that up by allowing two runs to the Nationals, but again failed to make it through the fifth inning. He has a 7/1 K/BB ratio for the month, but not much to show for it. Tuesday will be Harrison’s first career start against Atlanta.
Wednesday, August 14, (Bally Sports South)
Grant Holmes (13 G, 3 GS, 38.0 IP, 26.8 K%, 5.9 BB%, 3.79 ERA, 2.83 FIP)
Right-hander Grant Holmes will make his fourth straight start for the Braves in Wednesday’s game. Holmes is occupying the rotation spot of Reynaldo Lopez, who is on the Injured List after experiencing soreness in his right forearm. Holmes pitched well in his first start of the season allowing one run over five innings in Milwaukee. In two starts since, he has been charged with eight runs over his last 9 2/3 innings, despite a 12/4 K/BB ratio (though he did allow a homer in each start). Holmes made a relief appearance against the Giants back on July 4 where he tossed 2 2/3 scoreless innings with four strikeouts.
Robbie Ray (4 GS, 20.1 IP, 33.3 K%, 10.7 BB%, 3.98 ERA, 5.24 FIP)
Robbie Ray will make his fifth start of the season for the Giants in Wednesday’s game. Ray began the season on the Injured List while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made his season debut on July 24 and has been solid, though five homers allowed in four starts makes everything look somewhat suspect. He was charged with two runs and struck out seven in a season-high six innings in his last start against the Tigers. Ray has a 4.85 ERA in seven career starts against the Braves but hasn’t faced them since 2022.
Thursday, August 15 (Bally Sports South)
Max Fried (20 GS, 116.1 IP, 22.7 K%, 8.7 BB%, 3.56 ERA, 3.59 FIP)
Thursday’s game will feature another good pitching matchup between Max Fried and Logan Webb. Fried will make his third start since returning from the Injured List and is still looking to round back into shape. Fried was charged with five runs and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning in his first start back against the Marlins. He struck out nine but was charged with five runs (four earned) over five innings in his last start against the Rockies at Coors Field. Fried faced the Giants twice last season and was charged with five runs in 11 2/3 innings.
Logan Webb (25 GS, 157.0 IP, 20.5 K%, 6.2 BB%, 3.32 ERA, 2.86 FIP)
Webb has been a workhorse for the Giants again in 2024 and comes into Thursday’s start pitching well. He was charged with one run and struck out eight over seven innings in his last start against the Tigers. Over his last three starts combined, Webb has been charged with two runs in 21 2/3 innings. That stretch includes a complete game shutout against the Oakland Athletics on July 31. Webb faced the Braves in Atlanta back on July 4 and was charged with two runs over seven innings in a Giants win.
<img alt="Detroit Tigers v San Francisco Giants" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bQIkxTgiq4VL0yZR64ygU31_lcM=/0x0:4800x3200/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73515986/2166229365.0.jpg">
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
The Braves will continue their road trip Monday with a big series against the San Francisco Giants.
After disappointing start to their road trip, the Atlanta Braves will make the trip to San Francisco where they will take on the suddenly surging Giants in a four-game series. The Braves come in (still) reeling after dropping two of three to the Colorado Rockies. Atlanta had an 8-2 lead in the eighth inning of Sunday’s game but were unable to hold it in a 9-8 loss. They are just 3-7 in August and are in a battle with several teams for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
If there is any silver lining for the Braves in their series in Colorado, it was that their offense has continued to show improvement. New addition and former Giant, Jorge Soler homered four times in the series at Coors Field and has sparked Atlanta’s lineup from the top of the order. Matt Olson set a new career high with six runs batted in during Saturday’s game and is swinging it much better in August. Austin Riley has a 1.085 OPS in August and Marcell Ozuna is competing for a Triple Crown in the National League. However, that offensive uptick hasn’t resulted in an uptick in wins. Atlanta’s pitching staff has been a strength for most of the season but is dead last in the National League with a 7.16 ERA in August.
The thing is, though, that while the Braves ran into horrendous ball-in-play luck while the offense struggled, that twist of fate has simply switched to the pitching staff. The team has a 170 ERA- in August, which is dead last in MLB. Their FIP- isn’t great in August, either, as a 109 mark is 21st in MLB. But, their xFIP- for the month is a fourth-best-in-MLB 82. Basically, the team is dealing with the most absurd garbage on the run non-prevention side you’ve probably ever seen through ten games: a .434 BABIP-against and a 22.1 percent HR/FB. Both of those are tops in MLB in August, while their strand rate is second-worst in MLB, which makes sense given the other two numbers.
If you focus on quality of contact, yes, the Braves’ .335 xwOBA-against in August is eighth-worst in MLB. But, opponents are outhitting it against them by .054, which is 50 percent larger than the gap experienced by the team with the second-highest such deviation. At a time when the offense is finally having things go its way for once (eighth-highest xwOBA, fifth-highest wOBA, fifth-highest xwOBA overperformance), it just sucks that this is happening.
Just to be very clear:
Braves batters in August: .355 wOBA, .333 xwOBA
Braves pitchers in August: .389 wOBA-against, .335 xwOBA-against
That should be more like a .500 team, not a 3-7 team. That said, the Braves have been the worst fielding team in MLB in August after being more middle-of-the-pack earlier, so that probably moves the needle somewhat, but it’s still awful to see the poor luck just jump from the hitting to the run prevention as soon as the bats picked it up.
One of the teams that the Braves are battling for that final playoff spot in the NL is the Giants who saw a four-game winning streak end Sunday with a loss to the Tigers. Despite that loss, the Giants have won seven of 10 to climb back into Wild Card contention. San Francisco comes into the series with a 61-59 record but are 35-24 at Oracle Park.
The Giants have been middle of the pack offensively and in terms of position player fWAR, but have really struggled on the pitching side, where they are 27th in fWAR overall, with bottom ten placements by both the rotation and bullpen. They’ve been able to go on a run in August because the pitching staff has been somewhat better, though still not above-average; needless to say, their 7-3 run in August has been due to good sequencing and the like on and above their production. For the season, the Braves are now 61-56 with a 62-55 Pythagorean Expectation and a 63-54 BaseRuns record; the Giants are 61-59 with a 59-61 Pythagorean Expectation and a 58-62 BaseRuns record.
The Giants took two of three in Atlanta earlier this year, holding the Braves to eight runs in those three games.
Monday, August 12, 9:45 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Chris Sale (21 GS, 127.2 IP, 32.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, 2.75 ERA, 2.25 FIP)
Chris Sale will get the ball for Atlanta in the series opener Monday and will be looking to bounce back from a rare rough outing, though as you probably gathered from the notes above, it wasn’t really his fault. Sale was charged with nine hits and three runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Brewers. Only two of the runs were earned and he recorded his fourth double-digit strikeout game, but all the traffic on the bases led to an elevated pitch count. He had a .692 BABIP-against in the game, which... yeah. (.258 xwOBA-against, .388 wOBA-against.) Sale faced the Giants back on July 3 where he was charged with one run and struck out nine in six innings, helping the Braves get their only win of that series. Sale has a 2.70 ERA and a 2.35 FIP in 66 2/3 innings on the road this season. He remains MLB’s fWAR leader among starting pitchers despite having fewer starts than essentially everyone behind him.
Blake Snell (12 GS, 62.2 IP, 31.4 K%, 9.8 BB%, 4.31 ERA, 3.11 FIP)
Sale will face off against lefty Blake Snell in a marquee pitching matchup in the series opener. Snell was one of the biggest free agents available last offseason and eventually settled on the Giants. He’s battled injuries throughout the season but has settled in after the All-Star break with a 1.67 ERA and a 2.21 FIP combined over his last four starts. Snell faced the Braves twice last season and struggled, allowing nine hits, seven walks and six runs in 8 2/3 innings across two starts.
On the whole, it’s been kind of a bizarre season for Snell. He’s had many years where he’s run ERAs substantially better than his peripherals, and that was also the case last year. But, this year, his ERA is super-inflated relative to his peripherals, and especially relative to his quality of contact allowed. He has a career-best xERA, but a career-worst ERA and ERA- at this time.
Tuesday, August 13, (Bally Sports South)
Charlie Morton (21 GS, 114.2 IP, 23.0 K%, 8.8 BB%, 4.47 ERA, 4.75 FIP)
Charlie Morton will take his turn in Tuesday’s game and will be looking for better results after a rough outing in his last start. Morton didn’t make it out of the third inning in his last outing against the Brewers where he was charged with eight runs, including a career-high four homers. Morton has alternated good and bad outings for nearly a month but the Braves need him to settle in for the stretch run. Home runs have been a major problem of late for Morton who has given up seven in his last 11 1/3 innings. He’s shed about a third of his seasonal fWAR value in his last three starts alone, despite mixing a good outing in there, because he’s now gotten blasted off the surface of the planet in two of his last three tries. Morton faced San Francisco on July 4 at Truist Park where he was charged with three earned runs and struck out five in 5 1/3 innings. Those runs came on homers in what was another poor outing for him.
Kyle Harrison (20 GS, 106.0 IP, 21.7 K%, 7.6 BB%, 4.08 ERA, 4.22 FIP)
Young lefty Kyle Harrison will matchup against Morton in Tuesday’s game. Harrison is in his first full season in the majors and has been a solid rotation option for the Giants. He has struggled results-wise so far in August allowing six runs, including four homers, in 3 2/3 innings in Cincinnati. He followed that up by allowing two runs to the Nationals, but again failed to make it through the fifth inning. He has a 7/1 K/BB ratio for the month, but not much to show for it. Tuesday will be Harrison’s first career start against Atlanta.
Wednesday, August 14, (Bally Sports South)
Grant Holmes (13 G, 3 GS, 38.0 IP, 26.8 K%, 5.9 BB%, 3.79 ERA, 2.83 FIP)
Right-hander Grant Holmes will make his fourth straight start for the Braves in Wednesday’s game. Holmes is occupying the rotation spot of Reynaldo Lopez, who is on the Injured List after experiencing soreness in his right forearm. Holmes pitched well in his first start of the season allowing one run over five innings in Milwaukee. In two starts since, he has been charged with eight runs over his last 9 2/3 innings, despite a 12/4 K/BB ratio (though he did allow a homer in each start). Holmes made a relief appearance against the Giants back on July 4 where he tossed 2 2/3 scoreless innings with four strikeouts.
Robbie Ray (4 GS, 20.1 IP, 33.3 K%, 10.7 BB%, 3.98 ERA, 5.24 FIP)
Robbie Ray will make his fifth start of the season for the Giants in Wednesday’s game. Ray began the season on the Injured List while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made his season debut on July 24 and has been solid, though five homers allowed in four starts makes everything look somewhat suspect. He was charged with two runs and struck out seven in a season-high six innings in his last start against the Tigers. Ray has a 4.85 ERA in seven career starts against the Braves but hasn’t faced them since 2022.
Thursday, August 15 (Bally Sports South)
Max Fried (20 GS, 116.1 IP, 22.7 K%, 8.7 BB%, 3.56 ERA, 3.59 FIP)
Thursday’s game will feature another good pitching matchup between Max Fried and Logan Webb. Fried will make his third start since returning from the Injured List and is still looking to round back into shape. Fried was charged with five runs and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning in his first start back against the Marlins. He struck out nine but was charged with five runs (four earned) over five innings in his last start against the Rockies at Coors Field. Fried faced the Giants twice last season and was charged with five runs in 11 2/3 innings.
Logan Webb (25 GS, 157.0 IP, 20.5 K%, 6.2 BB%, 3.32 ERA, 2.86 FIP)
Webb has been a workhorse for the Giants again in 2024 and comes into Thursday’s start pitching well. He was charged with one run and struck out eight over seven innings in his last start against the Tigers. Over his last three starts combined, Webb has been charged with two runs in 21 2/3 innings. That stretch includes a complete game shutout against the Oakland Athletics on July 31. Webb faced the Braves in Atlanta back on July 4 and was charged with two runs over seven innings in a Giants win.
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