<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lJc4WtyfU8g875COZkB6WANCLcA=/0x0:7259x4839/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73514827/2156226279.5.jpg">
Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images
Un-skipped, Spencer Schwellenbach can help the Braves win a series for the first time in three tries The Braves are back in playoff position, which is a weird factoid I didn’t think I’d be typing in August 2024, but here we are. Amid injuries, a months-long severe underperformance of offensive inputs, pitching management that’s been silly at best and malignant at worst, and lately, some Three Stooges-esque defensive play, the Braves have slipped to the third Wild Card spot, which they currently hold by half a game over the Mets. There are three teams within 2.5 games of the Braves for a playoff spot; meanwhile, the Braves trail the Diamondbacks by three games. Perhaps most damningly among all this, the Braves are no longer projected to finish better than sixth in the NL or tenth in MLB.
It’s hard to feel too badly for the team, though. While what is now the league’s fourth-largest xwOBA underperformance (they moved up to pass the Mariners by percentage points thanks to two games at Coors Field so far) is brutal, no doubt, the Braves haven’t helped themselves with a pitching management strategy that hasn’t really cared about throwing its best arms at the opposition, even amid the slide in the playoff standings. Case in point: today’s scheduled starter, Spencer Schwellenbach, was originally going to be skipped for “workload management,” despite a really good 96/87/79 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) line in 11 career tries to date, only for the Braves to then reverse course once it turned out that, hey, the playoffs are less than a 2-in-3 proposition for this team at this point. The decision to pitch Schwellenbach in this series finale aside, the Braves will enter this game with Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder each having as many starts (three) as best-pitcher-in-baseball-ish Chris Sale has had since the All-Star Break, despite Sale himself not actually appearing in the All-Star Game.
In any case, the good news is that the Braves are least showing some sense of urgency, at long last, by giving Schwellenbach the start today. Coors Field can be annoying to navigate for various reasons, but so long as Schwellenbach doesn’t take too much of a step back from the 29/0 K/BB ratio he has in his last three starts (or the 58/5 from his last eight starts), he should be fine. He has been somewhat homer prone despite the excellent numbers, with five homers in his last three starts, and Coors doesn’t exactly help those issues, but the Braves will have to find a way to match dinger for dinger if he does give up some blasts.
While the Rockies have a pretty horrible roster, the Braves will have to contend with Kyle Freeland today, which is not particularly awesome for them. (Certainly not the Max Fried-Dakota Hudson matchup from yesterday, which wasn’t easy either, because nothing is at this point.) Since a 2018 breakout, Freeland hasn’t really been particularly good (2.0 fWAR/200 from 2019-2023), but he has 1.0 fWAR through just 63 2⁄3 innings right now in 2024, thanks to a weird 119/96/101 line that includes his best FIP- since 2018 and his best xFIP- since 2021.
Freeland was absolutely destroyed in three of his first four starts of the year despite peripherals that weren’t nearly as bad as the runs tacked onto his ledger, and that’s why his line is still as skewed as it is. Since returning from an elbow strain that kept him out of action for more than two months, his line is 67/80/88, which is really good and not really what you want to see against a Braves team that really just wanted to have an easy road trip to try and lick their wounds a bit. But, instead, they’ll have to deal with Good Kyle Freeland, a guy who hasn’t even had a blow-up at Coors this season. Well, maybe today’s the day.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, August 11, 3:10 p.m. ET
Location: Coors Field, Denver, CO
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lJc4WtyfU8g875COZkB6WANCLcA=/0x0:7259x4839/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73514827/2156226279.5.jpg">
Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images
Un-skipped, Spencer Schwellenbach can help the Braves win a series for the first time in three tries The Braves are back in playoff position, which is a weird factoid I didn’t think I’d be typing in August 2024, but here we are. Amid injuries, a months-long severe underperformance of offensive inputs, pitching management that’s been silly at best and malignant at worst, and lately, some Three Stooges-esque defensive play, the Braves have slipped to the third Wild Card spot, which they currently hold by half a game over the Mets. There are three teams within 2.5 games of the Braves for a playoff spot; meanwhile, the Braves trail the Diamondbacks by three games. Perhaps most damningly among all this, the Braves are no longer projected to finish better than sixth in the NL or tenth in MLB.
It’s hard to feel too badly for the team, though. While what is now the league’s fourth-largest xwOBA underperformance (they moved up to pass the Mariners by percentage points thanks to two games at Coors Field so far) is brutal, no doubt, the Braves haven’t helped themselves with a pitching management strategy that hasn’t really cared about throwing its best arms at the opposition, even amid the slide in the playoff standings. Case in point: today’s scheduled starter, Spencer Schwellenbach, was originally going to be skipped for “workload management,” despite a really good 96/87/79 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) line in 11 career tries to date, only for the Braves to then reverse course once it turned out that, hey, the playoffs are less than a 2-in-3 proposition for this team at this point. The decision to pitch Schwellenbach in this series finale aside, the Braves will enter this game with Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder each having as many starts (three) as best-pitcher-in-baseball-ish Chris Sale has had since the All-Star Break, despite Sale himself not actually appearing in the All-Star Game.
In any case, the good news is that the Braves are least showing some sense of urgency, at long last, by giving Schwellenbach the start today. Coors Field can be annoying to navigate for various reasons, but so long as Schwellenbach doesn’t take too much of a step back from the 29/0 K/BB ratio he has in his last three starts (or the 58/5 from his last eight starts), he should be fine. He has been somewhat homer prone despite the excellent numbers, with five homers in his last three starts, and Coors doesn’t exactly help those issues, but the Braves will have to find a way to match dinger for dinger if he does give up some blasts.
While the Rockies have a pretty horrible roster, the Braves will have to contend with Kyle Freeland today, which is not particularly awesome for them. (Certainly not the Max Fried-Dakota Hudson matchup from yesterday, which wasn’t easy either, because nothing is at this point.) Since a 2018 breakout, Freeland hasn’t really been particularly good (2.0 fWAR/200 from 2019-2023), but he has 1.0 fWAR through just 63 2⁄3 innings right now in 2024, thanks to a weird 119/96/101 line that includes his best FIP- since 2018 and his best xFIP- since 2021.
Freeland was absolutely destroyed in three of his first four starts of the year despite peripherals that weren’t nearly as bad as the runs tacked onto his ledger, and that’s why his line is still as skewed as it is. Since returning from an elbow strain that kept him out of action for more than two months, his line is 67/80/88, which is really good and not really what you want to see against a Braves team that really just wanted to have an easy road trip to try and lick their wounds a bit. But, instead, they’ll have to deal with Good Kyle Freeland, a guy who hasn’t even had a blow-up at Coors this season. Well, maybe today’s the day.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, August 11, 3:10 p.m. ET
Location: Coors Field, Denver, CO
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
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