<img alt="Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7rjQ55DyisGwTA0t-8LIJnMG9Ec=/0x0:5262x3508/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73510630/2165047060.0.jpg">
Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
Atlanta will carry a five-game losing streak on the road for a matchup against the Rockies After a disappointing homestand where they were thoroughly outplayed and knocked out of playoff position for the first time in the regular season since June 2022, the Atlanta Braves will head out on a 10-game road trip that could prove to be critical for their postseason hopes. Atlanta has lost five straight games and are now looking up at three teams in the Wild Card standings, which is a gross place to be.
Despite their struggles and despite their precarious position in terms of the Wild Card, the Braves will continue to juggle their rotation in an effort to give them extra rest, which seems comical to type at this point, but here we are. Atlanta will skip Spencer Schwellenbach this weekend; he has already blown past his career high in innings. It’s not a great place to be, since Schwellenbach has been one of the team’s more-reliable arms recently; he’s second to Chris Sale among Braves pitchers in fWAR since his debut, and has a beautiful 79 xFIP- so far through 11 career starts.
The rotation has been a source of strength for the Braves throughout the season but has begun showing cracks of late, despite the Braves giving start after start to minor league fill-ins in an attempt to prevent this exact thing from happening. Reynaldo Lopez is on the Injured List after experiencing forearm soreness. Max Fried just returned from the shelf after his own forearm issue. Atlanta’s rotation combined to allow 26 hits and 17 earned runs in just 11 innings while getting swept by the Brewers. Those short outings have taxed the bullpen, despite the season-long attempt to use the bullpen as little as possible, and they come into this weekend’s series in a precarious state.
Offensively, Atlanta went 24 innings without a run before scoring 12 runs combined over the last two games of the series. The only thing consistent about the Braves’ bats has been their inconsistency. Marcell Ozuna hit his 33rd homer of the season in Thursday’s loss. Austin Riley has homered in two straight and has 10 hits over his last seven games.
The Rockies come into the series with a 42-74 mark, which is the worst record in the National League. Colorado is dead last in the majors with a 5.53 ERA and a 4.78 FIP. They are however much better at home where they have a 25-30 record. The Rockies currently rank 18th in runs scored, which is four spots better than where the Braves are. Of course, all of those numbers are skewed by Coors Field, but unskewing them is somewhat difficult because of the way that Coors Field relates to park factors. By wRC+, the Rockies are ahead of only the White Sox with an 81 mark; they similarly have the second-worst position player fWAR in baseball. They also have the worst pitching fWAR in baseball despite the hefty park adjustment benefit; both the rotation and bullpen are bottom three units.
Brenton Doyle has had a breakout season in 2024 by hitting at a decent clip to go with his defense; he leads the Rockies with 2.9 fWAR. Ezequiel Tovar has outhit his xwOBA to an extreme degree (over .040) en route to a good season. Ryan McMahon and Jacob Stallings have been fine, but it’s pretty grim otherwise — the Rockies have more position players with below 0.0 fWAR than above it. Their pitching has been kind of interesting, with Ryan Feltner doing okay and Kyle Freeland having a bit of a resurgence in an injury-marred season, but a lot of struggles from oft-used relievers. They also have more guys with negative pitching fWAR than positive pitching fWAR, so yeah, it’s been another rough season in Colorado.
Friday, August 9, 8:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Grant Holmes (12 G, 2 GS, 33.0 IP, 25.6 K%, 4.7 BB%, 3.00 ERA, 2.59 FIP)
Grant Holmes will stick in the rotation for another turn and start Friday’s series opener in Colorado. Holmes made his major league debut with the club in June and made 10 appearances out of the bullpen. He made his first career start on July 29 in Milwaukee as the Braves continued to manipulate their rotation to give guys extra rest. Holmes was impressive in that outing, allowing one run while striking out eight over five innings. He made another start August 3 against Miami and allowed three runs and struck out four over 4 2/3 innings. Through those two starts, Holmes has a crazy-good 3.69 FIP and 2.71 xFIP, but even more impressively, it’s a 3.37 FIP and 2.25 xFIP the first two times through the order.
Tanner Gordon (4 GS, 21.1 IP, 17.6 K%, 3.3 BB%, 6.75 ERA, 5.89 FIP)
The Rockies will go with right-hander Tanner Gordon, who will face the team that drafted him in Friday’s series opener. Atlanta took Gordon in the sixth round of the 2019 MLB Draft. He was traded to Colorado along with Victor Vodnik in the deal for Pierce Johnson last July. Gordon was charged with 15 earned runs over his first 15 1/3 innings after his promotion, but is coming off his best start of the season where he was charged with just one run and struck out four in six innings against the Padres. While Gordon has had horrible homer problems through four starts, he actually comes into the game with a solid 102 xFIP-, and honestly, his numbers are mostly skewed by being crushed by the Mets for four homers in three innings in his second outing. While the Rockies have lots of turkeys on their roster, it’s not immediately clear that Gordon is one of them.
Saturday, August 10, 8:10 p.m. ET Bally Sports Southeast)
Max Fried (19 GS, 111.1 IP, 22.0 K%, 8.5 BB%, 3.40 ERA, 3.56 FIP)
Max Fried will make his second start since returning from the Injured List in Saturday’s game at Coors. Fried successfully returned from a stint on the shelf for forearm neuritis but wasn’t sharp as he allowed five runs and tied a career-high with five walks in just 3 1/3 innings against the Marlins. That was Fried’s second shortest outing of the season and snapped a four start stretch where he had completed at least six innings. Fried has three career appearances at Coors Field and has a 1.62 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and 4.23 xFIP in 16 2/3 innings. The last time he pitched there was in 2022, when he allowed two hits over eight scoreless innings.
Cal Quantrill (23 GS, 122.1 IP, 17.4 K%, 9.1 BB%, 4.56 ERA, 4.89 FIP)
Right-hander Cal Quantrill will get the ball for the Rockies in Saturday’s matchup. Quantrill will be looking to bounce back from a couple of rough outings after getting charged with 10 runs combined over his last eight innings and two starts. He hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in either of his last two tries and has an 8.18 ERA and a 6.40 FIP over his last five starts. Quantirll faced the Braves once last season and was hit hard, allowing 11 hits and five runs in just 4 1/3 innings.
Sunday, August 11, 3:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
TBD
The Braves haven’t announced their starter for Sunday’s game yet. AJ Smith-Shawver hasn’t pitched since last Sunday and would be an option. Listed starters at Gwinnett for this weekend include Ian Anderson Friday, Hurston Waldrep Saturday and Bryce Elder Sunday.
Kyle Freeland (12 GS, 63.2 IP, 19.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 5.65 ERA, 4.13 FIP)
Veteran lefty Kyle Freeland will start for the Rockies in the series finale Sunday. Freeland will make his 13th start of the season and is coming off a start where he allowed three runs and struck out seven over 4 2⁄3 innings against the Mets. Freeland faced the Braves twice last season and struggled allowing 17 hits and 13 earned runs in 10 innings across two starts. However, he’s been much better overall this year, and currently has his best FIP- since 2018 and his best xFIP- since 2021. He’s been even better since returning from injury, with a 67/80/88 line in eight starts.
<img alt="Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7rjQ55DyisGwTA0t-8LIJnMG9Ec=/0x0:5262x3508/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73510630/2165047060.0.jpg">
Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
Atlanta will carry a five-game losing streak on the road for a matchup against the Rockies After a disappointing homestand where they were thoroughly outplayed and knocked out of playoff position for the first time in the regular season since June 2022, the Atlanta Braves will head out on a 10-game road trip that could prove to be critical for their postseason hopes. Atlanta has lost five straight games and are now looking up at three teams in the Wild Card standings, which is a gross place to be.
Despite their struggles and despite their precarious position in terms of the Wild Card, the Braves will continue to juggle their rotation in an effort to give them extra rest, which seems comical to type at this point, but here we are. Atlanta will skip Spencer Schwellenbach this weekend; he has already blown past his career high in innings. It’s not a great place to be, since Schwellenbach has been one of the team’s more-reliable arms recently; he’s second to Chris Sale among Braves pitchers in fWAR since his debut, and has a beautiful 79 xFIP- so far through 11 career starts.
The rotation has been a source of strength for the Braves throughout the season but has begun showing cracks of late, despite the Braves giving start after start to minor league fill-ins in an attempt to prevent this exact thing from happening. Reynaldo Lopez is on the Injured List after experiencing forearm soreness. Max Fried just returned from the shelf after his own forearm issue. Atlanta’s rotation combined to allow 26 hits and 17 earned runs in just 11 innings while getting swept by the Brewers. Those short outings have taxed the bullpen, despite the season-long attempt to use the bullpen as little as possible, and they come into this weekend’s series in a precarious state.
Offensively, Atlanta went 24 innings without a run before scoring 12 runs combined over the last two games of the series. The only thing consistent about the Braves’ bats has been their inconsistency. Marcell Ozuna hit his 33rd homer of the season in Thursday’s loss. Austin Riley has homered in two straight and has 10 hits over his last seven games.
The Rockies come into the series with a 42-74 mark, which is the worst record in the National League. Colorado is dead last in the majors with a 5.53 ERA and a 4.78 FIP. They are however much better at home where they have a 25-30 record. The Rockies currently rank 18th in runs scored, which is four spots better than where the Braves are. Of course, all of those numbers are skewed by Coors Field, but unskewing them is somewhat difficult because of the way that Coors Field relates to park factors. By wRC+, the Rockies are ahead of only the White Sox with an 81 mark; they similarly have the second-worst position player fWAR in baseball. They also have the worst pitching fWAR in baseball despite the hefty park adjustment benefit; both the rotation and bullpen are bottom three units.
Brenton Doyle has had a breakout season in 2024 by hitting at a decent clip to go with his defense; he leads the Rockies with 2.9 fWAR. Ezequiel Tovar has outhit his xwOBA to an extreme degree (over .040) en route to a good season. Ryan McMahon and Jacob Stallings have been fine, but it’s pretty grim otherwise — the Rockies have more position players with below 0.0 fWAR than above it. Their pitching has been kind of interesting, with Ryan Feltner doing okay and Kyle Freeland having a bit of a resurgence in an injury-marred season, but a lot of struggles from oft-used relievers. They also have more guys with negative pitching fWAR than positive pitching fWAR, so yeah, it’s been another rough season in Colorado.
Friday, August 9, 8:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Grant Holmes (12 G, 2 GS, 33.0 IP, 25.6 K%, 4.7 BB%, 3.00 ERA, 2.59 FIP)
Grant Holmes will stick in the rotation for another turn and start Friday’s series opener in Colorado. Holmes made his major league debut with the club in June and made 10 appearances out of the bullpen. He made his first career start on July 29 in Milwaukee as the Braves continued to manipulate their rotation to give guys extra rest. Holmes was impressive in that outing, allowing one run while striking out eight over five innings. He made another start August 3 against Miami and allowed three runs and struck out four over 4 2/3 innings. Through those two starts, Holmes has a crazy-good 3.69 FIP and 2.71 xFIP, but even more impressively, it’s a 3.37 FIP and 2.25 xFIP the first two times through the order.
Tanner Gordon (4 GS, 21.1 IP, 17.6 K%, 3.3 BB%, 6.75 ERA, 5.89 FIP)
The Rockies will go with right-hander Tanner Gordon, who will face the team that drafted him in Friday’s series opener. Atlanta took Gordon in the sixth round of the 2019 MLB Draft. He was traded to Colorado along with Victor Vodnik in the deal for Pierce Johnson last July. Gordon was charged with 15 earned runs over his first 15 1/3 innings after his promotion, but is coming off his best start of the season where he was charged with just one run and struck out four in six innings against the Padres. While Gordon has had horrible homer problems through four starts, he actually comes into the game with a solid 102 xFIP-, and honestly, his numbers are mostly skewed by being crushed by the Mets for four homers in three innings in his second outing. While the Rockies have lots of turkeys on their roster, it’s not immediately clear that Gordon is one of them.
Saturday, August 10, 8:10 p.m. ET Bally Sports Southeast)
Max Fried (19 GS, 111.1 IP, 22.0 K%, 8.5 BB%, 3.40 ERA, 3.56 FIP)
Max Fried will make his second start since returning from the Injured List in Saturday’s game at Coors. Fried successfully returned from a stint on the shelf for forearm neuritis but wasn’t sharp as he allowed five runs and tied a career-high with five walks in just 3 1/3 innings against the Marlins. That was Fried’s second shortest outing of the season and snapped a four start stretch where he had completed at least six innings. Fried has three career appearances at Coors Field and has a 1.62 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and 4.23 xFIP in 16 2/3 innings. The last time he pitched there was in 2022, when he allowed two hits over eight scoreless innings.
Cal Quantrill (23 GS, 122.1 IP, 17.4 K%, 9.1 BB%, 4.56 ERA, 4.89 FIP)
Right-hander Cal Quantrill will get the ball for the Rockies in Saturday’s matchup. Quantrill will be looking to bounce back from a couple of rough outings after getting charged with 10 runs combined over his last eight innings and two starts. He hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in either of his last two tries and has an 8.18 ERA and a 6.40 FIP over his last five starts. Quantirll faced the Braves once last season and was hit hard, allowing 11 hits and five runs in just 4 1/3 innings.
Sunday, August 11, 3:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
TBD
The Braves haven’t announced their starter for Sunday’s game yet. AJ Smith-Shawver hasn’t pitched since last Sunday and would be an option. Listed starters at Gwinnett for this weekend include Ian Anderson Friday, Hurston Waldrep Saturday and Bryce Elder Sunday.
Kyle Freeland (12 GS, 63.2 IP, 19.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 5.65 ERA, 4.13 FIP)
Veteran lefty Kyle Freeland will start for the Rockies in the series finale Sunday. Freeland will make his 13th start of the season and is coming off a start where he allowed three runs and struck out seven over 4 2⁄3 innings against the Mets. Freeland faced the Braves twice last season and struggled allowing 17 hits and 13 earned runs in 10 innings across two starts. However, he’s been much better overall this year, and currently has his best FIP- since 2018 and his best xFIP- since 2021. He’s been even better since returning from injury, with a 67/80/88 line in eight starts.
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