<img alt="Detroit Tigers v Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DRb015uw3GYzJOp7XATemiPaC4o=/0x0:6812x4541/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73500789/2157519199.0.jpg">
Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
Following a tough loss that put the Miami Marlins on the board in this four-game series, the Atlanta Braves are now looking to pick up the series win here on Sunday before getting a day off on Monday.
The good news for the Braves is that Max Fried is back after sitting out for nearly a month due to a forearm injury. He’s back now and the Braves are surely happy to have him back in the fold. The last time the Braves had him on the mound was all the way back on July 11, which is when he pitched six strong innings and struck out seven Diamondbacks batters while only giving up one run. That should’ve been enough to win but alas, this is 2024 and that one run ended up being enough for Arizona to win because power outages have been a somewhat regular occurrence for Atlanta’s lineup this season.
The rotation has missed him a little bit, as any rotation would miss a started the caliber of Fried’s. Before his injury, Atlanta’s starting pitching staff had a collective ERA- and FIP- of 89. After his injury, things went down to a 92 ERA- and 96 FIP- since Fried went on the shelf. While that isn’t a precipitous drop, it’s still noticeable to the point where I’d imagine that everybody should be thrilled to see Fried returning to the mound.
Fried has had a whopping nine starts this season where he pitched long enough into the game to qualify being the pitcher of record while also giving up one run or less. Two of those starts came against the Marlins back in April — Fried went 6.1 innings on April 12 and only gave up one run in an 8-1 win for Atlanta and then he followed that up 11 days later by going all nine innings in a 5-0 complete game shutout win. Needless to say, you probably couldn’t ask for a better team for Fried to see upon his return and hopefully he’ll be able to continue his run of dominance against Miami this season.
Meanwhile, the Marlins are going with Edward Cabrera as their starter for today’s contest. While he’s had a rough season overall so far (161 ERA-, 140 FIP- with an intriguing 96 xFIP-, though), things have gotten a little bit better for Cabrera. He made it into the fifth inning with just two runs allowed (one earned) against the Mets back on July 19, he gave up three runs over 5.1 innings five days later against the Orioles and then he only gave up two runs over five innings against the Rays in his most recent outing. Miami went 2-1 over that stretch, so he’s definitely done his job and kept the Marlins in with a chance to win each game that he’s started recently.
Still, this was after he got shelled for seven runs over just 3.1 innings against the Reds back on July 13 and that was the cap of a run of five starts where he had given up at least four runs in four of those starts. He’s definitely had a rough go of it here in 2024 but if things are going well for him then he’ll still be able to rack up a bunch of swings-and-misses. He’s heading into this game with a Whiff percentage in the 91st percentile and a Strikeout percentage in the 87th percentile. For comparison’s sake, the Braves currently have the seventh-highest strikeout rate in all of baseball as an offense (24.4 percent) and they have the fourth-highest whiff rate in MLB (27.8 percent) as well.
So while it seems like this could be a sneaky-bad matchup for the Braves against Cabrera, the flip-side of this is that when Cabrera gets hit, he gets hit hard. He’s given up 10 home runs this season, including four against the Reds in that aforementioned start from July. His Barrel percentage is in the third percentile and his Hard-Hit percentage is in the second percentile. Again, for comparison’s sake, the Braves have both the second-best Barrel percentage and Hard-Hit percentage in all of baseball this season. While the Braves have definitely fallen off a bit in terms of production this season compared to 2023, they’re still hitting the ball hard on a regular basis. So this feels like it could be a boom-or-bust game where the Braves either hit Edward Cabrera all over the yard or his fastball mystifies them.
With the Phillies slowing down ever since the All-Star break and the Braves actually starting to put together a good stretch of baseball, every win means a ton at this point and it’s going to be very important for the Braves to take care of business and pick up the series victory today. Last night’s loss was tough to take but today’s a new day and a new opportunity for the Braves to get back in the win column. It’s not quite a must-win but it’s a “it would be absolutely fantastic if you did win” type of game for the Braves. Hopefully they can get the job done today.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday August 4, 7:20 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park: Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM
<img alt="Detroit Tigers v Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DRb015uw3GYzJOp7XATemiPaC4o=/0x0:6812x4541/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73500789/2157519199.0.jpg">
Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
Following a tough loss that put the Miami Marlins on the board in this four-game series, the Atlanta Braves are now looking to pick up the series win here on Sunday before getting a day off on Monday.
The good news for the Braves is that Max Fried is back after sitting out for nearly a month due to a forearm injury. He’s back now and the Braves are surely happy to have him back in the fold. The last time the Braves had him on the mound was all the way back on July 11, which is when he pitched six strong innings and struck out seven Diamondbacks batters while only giving up one run. That should’ve been enough to win but alas, this is 2024 and that one run ended up being enough for Arizona to win because power outages have been a somewhat regular occurrence for Atlanta’s lineup this season.
The rotation has missed him a little bit, as any rotation would miss a started the caliber of Fried’s. Before his injury, Atlanta’s starting pitching staff had a collective ERA- and FIP- of 89. After his injury, things went down to a 92 ERA- and 96 FIP- since Fried went on the shelf. While that isn’t a precipitous drop, it’s still noticeable to the point where I’d imagine that everybody should be thrilled to see Fried returning to the mound.
Fried has had a whopping nine starts this season where he pitched long enough into the game to qualify being the pitcher of record while also giving up one run or less. Two of those starts came against the Marlins back in April — Fried went 6.1 innings on April 12 and only gave up one run in an 8-1 win for Atlanta and then he followed that up 11 days later by going all nine innings in a 5-0 complete game shutout win. Needless to say, you probably couldn’t ask for a better team for Fried to see upon his return and hopefully he’ll be able to continue his run of dominance against Miami this season.
Meanwhile, the Marlins are going with Edward Cabrera as their starter for today’s contest. While he’s had a rough season overall so far (161 ERA-, 140 FIP- with an intriguing 96 xFIP-, though), things have gotten a little bit better for Cabrera. He made it into the fifth inning with just two runs allowed (one earned) against the Mets back on July 19, he gave up three runs over 5.1 innings five days later against the Orioles and then he only gave up two runs over five innings against the Rays in his most recent outing. Miami went 2-1 over that stretch, so he’s definitely done his job and kept the Marlins in with a chance to win each game that he’s started recently.
Still, this was after he got shelled for seven runs over just 3.1 innings against the Reds back on July 13 and that was the cap of a run of five starts where he had given up at least four runs in four of those starts. He’s definitely had a rough go of it here in 2024 but if things are going well for him then he’ll still be able to rack up a bunch of swings-and-misses. He’s heading into this game with a Whiff percentage in the 91st percentile and a Strikeout percentage in the 87th percentile. For comparison’s sake, the Braves currently have the seventh-highest strikeout rate in all of baseball as an offense (24.4 percent) and they have the fourth-highest whiff rate in MLB (27.8 percent) as well.
So while it seems like this could be a sneaky-bad matchup for the Braves against Cabrera, the flip-side of this is that when Cabrera gets hit, he gets hit hard. He’s given up 10 home runs this season, including four against the Reds in that aforementioned start from July. His Barrel percentage is in the third percentile and his Hard-Hit percentage is in the second percentile. Again, for comparison’s sake, the Braves have both the second-best Barrel percentage and Hard-Hit percentage in all of baseball this season. While the Braves have definitely fallen off a bit in terms of production this season compared to 2023, they’re still hitting the ball hard on a regular basis. So this feels like it could be a boom-or-bust game where the Braves either hit Edward Cabrera all over the yard or his fastball mystifies them.
With the Phillies slowing down ever since the All-Star break and the Braves actually starting to put together a good stretch of baseball, every win means a ton at this point and it’s going to be very important for the Braves to take care of business and pick up the series victory today. Last night’s loss was tough to take but today’s a new day and a new opportunity for the Braves to get back in the win column. It’s not quite a must-win but it’s a “it would be absolutely fantastic if you did win” type of game for the Braves. Hopefully they can get the job done today.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday August 4, 7:20 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park: Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM
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