<img alt="Cincinnati Reds v Atlanta Braves - Game One" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-zhwY_ZZD5_nhLqk40kUzr2PGbE=/0x0:6328x4219/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73487615/2162690775.0.jpg">
Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
Atlanta will head to Milwaukee on Monday to take on the NL Central-leading Brewers. The Atlanta Braves will continue their road trip on Monday by beginning a three-game series against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The Braves split a four-game series in New York against the Mets to start the trip and snapped a six-game skid in the process. Atlanta currently holds a one-game advantage over the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card standings, and are 1.5 games ahead of the Mets for the final NL playoff spot.
The Braves continue to deal with multiple injuries. Reynaldo López left Sunday’s game with soreness in his forearm and is headed back to Atlanta for an MRI. Atlanta is already without Max Fried, who could be nearing a return. Despite the injuries and the tightening Wild Card race, the Braves continue to stick with their plan of giving their starting rotation extra rest. Grant Holmes will make his first career start in Monday’s game. Atlanta hasn’t named a starter for Tuesday but will push Chris Sale back to Wednesday and give him an extra day of rest.
Atlanta’s offense is also dealing with a number of injuries, but their bats started to wake up in New York. The Braves homered four times in Sunday’s win over the Mets and now have 10 over their last three games. Matt Olson, who was in a deep slump to start the month, has hit safely in five straight games. He homered again in Sunday’s win, marking the first time all season where he has homered in consecutive games.
The Brewers come into the series with a 60-45 record and a six-game lead in the NL Central over the St. Louis Cardinals. Despite that big lead, the Brewers are just 10-11 in July. They avoided getting swept at home with a 6-2 win over the Marlins Sunday.
The Brewers are dealing with their own set of injury concerns. Christian Yelich was putting together his best season in a Milwaukee uniform before going on the Injured List with a back issue. They did get closer Devin Williams back from the shelf on Sunday. He made his season debut with a scoreless inning in the win over Miami.
Overall, the Brewers have hit okay (10th in wRC+) and played pretty good defense; they’re fifth in position player fWAR as a result. They’ve actually had a ton of pitching issues, though, ranking just 25th in pitching fWAR (25th rotation, 16th bullpen). A top ten position player unit and bottom ten pitching unit doesn’t seem like it should result in the majors’ sixth-best record, and, unsurprisingly, they only have the ninth-best BaseRuns record in MLB — a half game behind the Braves, despite a 3.5-game lead on them in the actual standings. One other thing worth noting is that the Brewers have consistently and substantially outhit their xwOBA all year — their xwOBA itself is middle of the pack, but they’ve gotten substantial bang for their buck out of it.
While the hitting has regressed in July, the real issue is that their pitching situation has gotten even worse; they came into Sunday’s game as one of three teams with below-replacement pitching performance from July 1 onward.
The position player side of the roster looks really good overall — Willy Adames is having a great year, while Yelich, former Brave William Contreras, Joey Ortiz, and Brice Turang all join him with at least 2.0 fWAR. Talented youngsters Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, and Sal Frelick are also all having above-average years, though there’s some xwOBA outperformance going on for sure. Rhys Hoskins has been their only real drag, as a 105 wRC+ at first base isn’t really cutting it.
As for the pitching, well, uh... Freddy Peralta is having a great year, and Trevor Megill is dominating out of the bullpen (but with a spotty xFIP). Beyond that, it’s been somewhat of a struggle — the Brewers have used 16 different starters already (though many were essentially openers or the first guy in a bullpen game). Some guys have done well in attempting to hold down the fort, like Tobias Myers, while others, like Colin Rea, have mostly just eaten innings.
Monday, July 29, 8:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Grant Holmes (10 G, 23.1 IP, 23.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 2.70 ERA, 2.12 FIP)
Right-hander Grant Holmes will make his first career Major League start for the Braves in Monday’s series opener. With the injury to Max Fried, Atlanta only has four starters currently on their roster. Holmes, who was a first round pick back in 2014, made his Major League debut back in June and has appeared in 10 games while posting a 2.70 ERA and a 2.12 FIP. He has operated as a reliever for the last few seasons in the minors, but the Braves stretched him out at Gwinnett and he was a part of the Triple-A rotation before his call up.
Colin Rea (20 G, 17 GS, 110.0 IP, 18.2 K%, 7.1 BB%, 3.60 ERA, 4.31 FIP)
The Brewers will go with righty Colin Rea in Monday’s opener. Rea has been a valuable innings eater for Milwaukee’s rotation. He struck out eight over five scoreless innings in his last start against the Cubs, and has had three dominant outings and a single blow-up so far in July, which is a big improvement over his performance in prior months. Rea had a weird outing against Atlanta last year, with a great 8/2 K/BB ratio but also two homers allowed and five total runs charged to him in five innings of work. He also had a couple of good outings against the Braves back in 2015 and 2016, but that’s not exactly relevant these days.
Tuesday, July 30, 8:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
TBD
Brian Snitker said Sunday that the Braves will push everyone in the rotation back a day for extra rest. He declined to elaborate on who might make Tuesday’s start saying only that they will see how things go on Monday. Bryce Elder was scratched from his scheduled start for Gwinnett on Sunday and would appear to be an option.
TBD
The Brewers have not announced their pitching plans for Tuesday’s game. Baseball in 2024, guys!
Wednesday, July 31, 2:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Chris Sale (19 GS, 117.1 IP, 32.7 K%, 5.5 BB%, 2.68 ERA, 2.29 FIP)
Lefty Chris Sale will make his 20th start of the season for the Braves in Wednesday’s series finale. Sale has been nothing short of magnificent and has to be on the shortlist of contenders for the Cy Young award in the National League. Though he was passed by George Kirby and is only third in terms of starting pitching fWAR, it’s again worth noting that Kirby has three starts on him at this point, and Garrett Crochet has two. Atlanta has done its best to keep Sale’s innings down. He made his first start since the All-Star Break on July 25 in New York and was spectacular again, allowing two runs to go along with nine strikeouts in a season-high 7 1/3 innings.
Freddy Peralta (21 GS, 114.1 IP, 29.5 K%, 8.9 BB%, 3.94 ERA, 3.82 FIP)
Freddy Peralta will be the other half of Wednesday’s marquee pitching matchup. Peralta comes into the start among the league leaders in strikeout percentage. He will be looking to bounce back from a less than stellar outing last time out where he allowed five runs (three earned) and walked five over 5 1/3 innings against the Marlins. Peralta has a 4.43 ERA and a 5.16 FIP through four starts in July and has allowed four homers during that stretch. He’s actually gotten worse on both an FIP and xFIP basis every month so far. Peralta has six career appearances against the Braves where he has a 4.45 ERA, 3.49 FIP, and 4.05 xFIP in 28 1/3 innings. The Braves knocked him around last year, but he dominated them in 2022 and 2021.
<img alt="Cincinnati Reds v Atlanta Braves - Game One" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-zhwY_ZZD5_nhLqk40kUzr2PGbE=/0x0:6328x4219/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73487615/2162690775.0.jpg">
Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
Atlanta will head to Milwaukee on Monday to take on the NL Central-leading Brewers. The Atlanta Braves will continue their road trip on Monday by beginning a three-game series against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The Braves split a four-game series in New York against the Mets to start the trip and snapped a six-game skid in the process. Atlanta currently holds a one-game advantage over the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card standings, and are 1.5 games ahead of the Mets for the final NL playoff spot.
The Braves continue to deal with multiple injuries. Reynaldo López left Sunday’s game with soreness in his forearm and is headed back to Atlanta for an MRI. Atlanta is already without Max Fried, who could be nearing a return. Despite the injuries and the tightening Wild Card race, the Braves continue to stick with their plan of giving their starting rotation extra rest. Grant Holmes will make his first career start in Monday’s game. Atlanta hasn’t named a starter for Tuesday but will push Chris Sale back to Wednesday and give him an extra day of rest.
Atlanta’s offense is also dealing with a number of injuries, but their bats started to wake up in New York. The Braves homered four times in Sunday’s win over the Mets and now have 10 over their last three games. Matt Olson, who was in a deep slump to start the month, has hit safely in five straight games. He homered again in Sunday’s win, marking the first time all season where he has homered in consecutive games.
The Brewers come into the series with a 60-45 record and a six-game lead in the NL Central over the St. Louis Cardinals. Despite that big lead, the Brewers are just 10-11 in July. They avoided getting swept at home with a 6-2 win over the Marlins Sunday.
The Brewers are dealing with their own set of injury concerns. Christian Yelich was putting together his best season in a Milwaukee uniform before going on the Injured List with a back issue. They did get closer Devin Williams back from the shelf on Sunday. He made his season debut with a scoreless inning in the win over Miami.
Overall, the Brewers have hit okay (10th in wRC+) and played pretty good defense; they’re fifth in position player fWAR as a result. They’ve actually had a ton of pitching issues, though, ranking just 25th in pitching fWAR (25th rotation, 16th bullpen). A top ten position player unit and bottom ten pitching unit doesn’t seem like it should result in the majors’ sixth-best record, and, unsurprisingly, they only have the ninth-best BaseRuns record in MLB — a half game behind the Braves, despite a 3.5-game lead on them in the actual standings. One other thing worth noting is that the Brewers have consistently and substantially outhit their xwOBA all year — their xwOBA itself is middle of the pack, but they’ve gotten substantial bang for their buck out of it.
While the hitting has regressed in July, the real issue is that their pitching situation has gotten even worse; they came into Sunday’s game as one of three teams with below-replacement pitching performance from July 1 onward.
The position player side of the roster looks really good overall — Willy Adames is having a great year, while Yelich, former Brave William Contreras, Joey Ortiz, and Brice Turang all join him with at least 2.0 fWAR. Talented youngsters Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, and Sal Frelick are also all having above-average years, though there’s some xwOBA outperformance going on for sure. Rhys Hoskins has been their only real drag, as a 105 wRC+ at first base isn’t really cutting it.
As for the pitching, well, uh... Freddy Peralta is having a great year, and Trevor Megill is dominating out of the bullpen (but with a spotty xFIP). Beyond that, it’s been somewhat of a struggle — the Brewers have used 16 different starters already (though many were essentially openers or the first guy in a bullpen game). Some guys have done well in attempting to hold down the fort, like Tobias Myers, while others, like Colin Rea, have mostly just eaten innings.
Monday, July 29, 8:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Grant Holmes (10 G, 23.1 IP, 23.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 2.70 ERA, 2.12 FIP)
Right-hander Grant Holmes will make his first career Major League start for the Braves in Monday’s series opener. With the injury to Max Fried, Atlanta only has four starters currently on their roster. Holmes, who was a first round pick back in 2014, made his Major League debut back in June and has appeared in 10 games while posting a 2.70 ERA and a 2.12 FIP. He has operated as a reliever for the last few seasons in the minors, but the Braves stretched him out at Gwinnett and he was a part of the Triple-A rotation before his call up.
Colin Rea (20 G, 17 GS, 110.0 IP, 18.2 K%, 7.1 BB%, 3.60 ERA, 4.31 FIP)
The Brewers will go with righty Colin Rea in Monday’s opener. Rea has been a valuable innings eater for Milwaukee’s rotation. He struck out eight over five scoreless innings in his last start against the Cubs, and has had three dominant outings and a single blow-up so far in July, which is a big improvement over his performance in prior months. Rea had a weird outing against Atlanta last year, with a great 8/2 K/BB ratio but also two homers allowed and five total runs charged to him in five innings of work. He also had a couple of good outings against the Braves back in 2015 and 2016, but that’s not exactly relevant these days.
Tuesday, July 30, 8:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
TBD
Brian Snitker said Sunday that the Braves will push everyone in the rotation back a day for extra rest. He declined to elaborate on who might make Tuesday’s start saying only that they will see how things go on Monday. Bryce Elder was scratched from his scheduled start for Gwinnett on Sunday and would appear to be an option.
TBD
The Brewers have not announced their pitching plans for Tuesday’s game. Baseball in 2024, guys!
Wednesday, July 31, 2:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Chris Sale (19 GS, 117.1 IP, 32.7 K%, 5.5 BB%, 2.68 ERA, 2.29 FIP)
Lefty Chris Sale will make his 20th start of the season for the Braves in Wednesday’s series finale. Sale has been nothing short of magnificent and has to be on the shortlist of contenders for the Cy Young award in the National League. Though he was passed by George Kirby and is only third in terms of starting pitching fWAR, it’s again worth noting that Kirby has three starts on him at this point, and Garrett Crochet has two. Atlanta has done its best to keep Sale’s innings down. He made his first start since the All-Star Break on July 25 in New York and was spectacular again, allowing two runs to go along with nine strikeouts in a season-high 7 1/3 innings.
Freddy Peralta (21 GS, 114.1 IP, 29.5 K%, 8.9 BB%, 3.94 ERA, 3.82 FIP)
Freddy Peralta will be the other half of Wednesday’s marquee pitching matchup. Peralta comes into the start among the league leaders in strikeout percentage. He will be looking to bounce back from a less than stellar outing last time out where he allowed five runs (three earned) and walked five over 5 1/3 innings against the Marlins. Peralta has a 4.43 ERA and a 5.16 FIP through four starts in July and has allowed four homers during that stretch. He’s actually gotten worse on both an FIP and xFIP basis every month so far. Peralta has six career appearances against the Braves where he has a 4.45 ERA, 3.49 FIP, and 4.05 xFIP in 28 1/3 innings. The Braves knocked him around last year, but he dominated them in 2022 and 2021.
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