<img alt="MLB: JUL 24 Reds at Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ABtyVUGoKkSCzop7cHWqPkkP9yo=/0x0:5239x3493/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73480850/2162694615.0.jpg">
Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Braves dropped two games and gave up 13 runs in the process to a pretty weak offense These 2024 Braves probably haven’t hit their version of rock bottom yet, but are now 8-10 in July and have lost consecutive series for the first time in over a month after getting shellacked by the Reds in a for-now-rain-shortened series. Reynaldo Lopez had a visit from the regression monster in every sense in the series opener, and the decision to start Allan Winans backfired almost immediately in the first game of what ended up not being a doubleheader at all.
While it may be difficult to expect all that much from a roster that seemingly loses another key player every week, the Braves also aren’t doing themselves many favors by continuing to coast along as their playoff odds slide. The series loss to the Cardinals was the first time those odds slid under 90 percent; they’re now at 83 percent but will likely slide further as the Padres, Mets, and Diamondbacks are all leading their games at the time of writing. The Braves were first content to tread water in an attempt to keep their pitchers healthy for the postseason, and then seemingly became content with a spare parts outfield situation as their position in the standings deteriorated. There’s not much cushion left at this point, but the Braves aren’t exactly acting like they’re concerned. It’s strange times in Atlanta, really.
Reynaldo Lopez Watch continues
There was a point after Lopez crossed the threshold of innings that he had thrown last year where we started to wonder whether he was going to hit some kind of wall. After 23 walks in 74 innings, he had back-to-back poor-ish starts against the Giants and Cardinals with four walks in each — in fact, his two worst starts of the year, xFIP-wise. That set off some minor alarm bells, but Lopez was able to immediately stop those particular peals with two strong outings against key contenders in the Phillies and Padres, including shutting down the Phightins without the benefit of extra rest.
But, Lopez had a pretty crappy outing (5/2 K/BB ratio, a homer allowed, his first HBP all year) against the Reds, which do not have a particularly potent offense. So, now we’re back on Reynaldo Lopez Watch. Stay tuned. The Braves can’t really afford to have anything happen to Lopez, but it’s not like they can really safeguard against it any better, either. Babying him was probably the right call, but it’s part of what’s gotten them into this predicament in the first place.
Urgency Shmurgency, ad nauseam
The Braves ended up starting Lopez and Winans in this series; Chris Sale would’ve started the nightcap, which was postponed to September. While it’s not necessarily a bad thing that Sale will now kick off the series against the Mets, whom the Braves need to knock down a few pegs to make their path to the postseason more certain, the Braves are clearly continuing their kid gloves approach to, well, everything. Sale didn’t pitch against the Cardinals (another team the Braves could’ve really used wins against), and before the rainout, the Braves were planning on starting someone other than Charlie Morton on regular rest to open the series in New York.
While the dam on Trade Deadline activity hasn’t really broken, the Braves also haven’t also really maneuvered in a way that suggests that they’re going to do anything other than stay the course, at least until they can actually get some reinforcements. Winans stuck around to get blasted before being removed, Adam Duvall continues to draw starts against righties while Eddie Rosario continues to draw starts, period. The Braves called up Nacho Alvarez Jr. to replace Ozzie Albies, but plugged him into the two-hole in the lineup for some reason, I guess because that was somehow simpler than shuffling everyone else around. (In their defense, they did finally move Matt Olson down... barely.)
The Braves also did something pretty bizarre in Wednesday’s loss, as they actually pulled a starter (Winans) before anything approaching the 100-pitch mark or the third time through the order, something they don’t do with their regular starters or in higher-leverage situations. That seemed like a good time to let Winans wear it for as long as possible given the deficit, but for once, the Braves pressed the bullpen into service early. It was a strange thing to see given how the rest of the season has gone. Speaking of that, though...
Grant Holmes rules
Though he did get tagged with two ball-in-play-type runs on the afternoon, the 28-year-old rookie recorded ten outs with five strikeouts and a hit-by-pitch to bridge the gap between the woeful Winans and the Dylan Lee/Jesse Chavez mop-up crew.
Holmes is now fifth in the Atlanta bullpen with 0.5 fWAR and a really cool 65/54/88 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). If the Braves are insistent on calling up the turkey du jour from Gwinnett and getting blasted, only to then force Holmes into service, why not cut out this particular middleman and just give Holmes the start? Then, they can decide whether to use a Quad-A turkey if Holmes struggles, or turn it over to the remainder of the bullpen if he doesn’t, or the game is competitive. That seems more fun than what they’ve done to date, and you can’t say Holmes hasn’t earned it vis-a-vis most of the other options, which have largely just faceplanted when given a starting assignment.
I guess I gotta say something about the offense
But there’s not too much to say. The Braves got dominated by Hunter Greene in the opener, and while Frankie Montas has had an awful season, the Braves ran out an awful lineup against him. Don’t feel encouraged about the four runs they scored, not just because Montas is awful, but because they basically just got a bunch of BABIP singles.
That said, while the Braves didn’t out-xwOBA the Reds in the first game, it was still the same old story from a results perspective. The Braves had a .280 xwOBA and a .189 wOBA en route to scoring one run; the Reds had a .309 xwOBA and a .325 wOBA en route to scoring four runs. The Braves are creeping ever-closer to having the biggest xwOBA underperformance among all teams for the entire season; they continue to have a top-10 offense by xwOBA despite their depleted lineup from May 1-onward, but with results way off the pace.
<img alt="MLB: JUL 24 Reds at Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ABtyVUGoKkSCzop7cHWqPkkP9yo=/0x0:5239x3493/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73480850/2162694615.0.jpg">
Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Braves dropped two games and gave up 13 runs in the process to a pretty weak offense These 2024 Braves probably haven’t hit their version of rock bottom yet, but are now 8-10 in July and have lost consecutive series for the first time in over a month after getting shellacked by the Reds in a for-now-rain-shortened series. Reynaldo Lopez had a visit from the regression monster in every sense in the series opener, and the decision to start Allan Winans backfired almost immediately in the first game of what ended up not being a doubleheader at all.
While it may be difficult to expect all that much from a roster that seemingly loses another key player every week, the Braves also aren’t doing themselves many favors by continuing to coast along as their playoff odds slide. The series loss to the Cardinals was the first time those odds slid under 90 percent; they’re now at 83 percent but will likely slide further as the Padres, Mets, and Diamondbacks are all leading their games at the time of writing. The Braves were first content to tread water in an attempt to keep their pitchers healthy for the postseason, and then seemingly became content with a spare parts outfield situation as their position in the standings deteriorated. There’s not much cushion left at this point, but the Braves aren’t exactly acting like they’re concerned. It’s strange times in Atlanta, really.
Reynaldo Lopez Watch continues
There was a point after Lopez crossed the threshold of innings that he had thrown last year where we started to wonder whether he was going to hit some kind of wall. After 23 walks in 74 innings, he had back-to-back poor-ish starts against the Giants and Cardinals with four walks in each — in fact, his two worst starts of the year, xFIP-wise. That set off some minor alarm bells, but Lopez was able to immediately stop those particular peals with two strong outings against key contenders in the Phillies and Padres, including shutting down the Phightins without the benefit of extra rest.
But, Lopez had a pretty crappy outing (5/2 K/BB ratio, a homer allowed, his first HBP all year) against the Reds, which do not have a particularly potent offense. So, now we’re back on Reynaldo Lopez Watch. Stay tuned. The Braves can’t really afford to have anything happen to Lopez, but it’s not like they can really safeguard against it any better, either. Babying him was probably the right call, but it’s part of what’s gotten them into this predicament in the first place.
Urgency Shmurgency, ad nauseam
The Braves ended up starting Lopez and Winans in this series; Chris Sale would’ve started the nightcap, which was postponed to September. While it’s not necessarily a bad thing that Sale will now kick off the series against the Mets, whom the Braves need to knock down a few pegs to make their path to the postseason more certain, the Braves are clearly continuing their kid gloves approach to, well, everything. Sale didn’t pitch against the Cardinals (another team the Braves could’ve really used wins against), and before the rainout, the Braves were planning on starting someone other than Charlie Morton on regular rest to open the series in New York.
While the dam on Trade Deadline activity hasn’t really broken, the Braves also haven’t also really maneuvered in a way that suggests that they’re going to do anything other than stay the course, at least until they can actually get some reinforcements. Winans stuck around to get blasted before being removed, Adam Duvall continues to draw starts against righties while Eddie Rosario continues to draw starts, period. The Braves called up Nacho Alvarez Jr. to replace Ozzie Albies, but plugged him into the two-hole in the lineup for some reason, I guess because that was somehow simpler than shuffling everyone else around. (In their defense, they did finally move Matt Olson down... barely.)
The Braves also did something pretty bizarre in Wednesday’s loss, as they actually pulled a starter (Winans) before anything approaching the 100-pitch mark or the third time through the order, something they don’t do with their regular starters or in higher-leverage situations. That seemed like a good time to let Winans wear it for as long as possible given the deficit, but for once, the Braves pressed the bullpen into service early. It was a strange thing to see given how the rest of the season has gone. Speaking of that, though...
Grant Holmes rules
Though he did get tagged with two ball-in-play-type runs on the afternoon, the 28-year-old rookie recorded ten outs with five strikeouts and a hit-by-pitch to bridge the gap between the woeful Winans and the Dylan Lee/Jesse Chavez mop-up crew.
Holmes is now fifth in the Atlanta bullpen with 0.5 fWAR and a really cool 65/54/88 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). If the Braves are insistent on calling up the turkey du jour from Gwinnett and getting blasted, only to then force Holmes into service, why not cut out this particular middleman and just give Holmes the start? Then, they can decide whether to use a Quad-A turkey if Holmes struggles, or turn it over to the remainder of the bullpen if he doesn’t, or the game is competitive. That seems more fun than what they’ve done to date, and you can’t say Holmes hasn’t earned it vis-a-vis most of the other options, which have largely just faceplanted when given a starting assignment.
I guess I gotta say something about the offense
But there’s not too much to say. The Braves got dominated by Hunter Greene in the opener, and while Frankie Montas has had an awful season, the Braves ran out an awful lineup against him. Don’t feel encouraged about the four runs they scored, not just because Montas is awful, but because they basically just got a bunch of BABIP singles.
That said, while the Braves didn’t out-xwOBA the Reds in the first game, it was still the same old story from a results perspective. The Braves had a .280 xwOBA and a .189 wOBA en route to scoring one run; the Reds had a .309 xwOBA and a .325 wOBA en route to scoring four runs. The Braves are creeping ever-closer to having the biggest xwOBA underperformance among all teams for the entire season; they continue to have a top-10 offense by xwOBA despite their depleted lineup from May 1-onward, but with results way off the pace.
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