<img alt="Cincinnati Reds v Washington Nationals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lhtdY0xnK-42rJbCy3O0ddW2xaw=/17x0:5120x3402/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73473781/2162729639.0.jpg">
Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images
The Braves will continue their homestand Monday where they will begin a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds. Instead of building some momentum coming out of the All-Star Break, the Atlanta Braves fell flat by dropping two of three to the St. Louis Cardinals, and may have reached the breaking point when it comes to injuries.
The Braves placed Max Fried on the Injured List ahead of Sunday’s game and then saw Ozzie Albies leave Sunday’s loss in the ninth inning. Brian Snitker later confirmed that Albies is also headed to the Injured List. With nine days remaining before the Trade Deadline, Atlanta needs reinforcements in the worst way possible. When you consider the long list of injuries, the Braves are fortunate to be 10 games over .500 and in position for a spot in the postseason. Still, if they hope to make any noise at all once they get there, then the roster needs help and the offense needs to finally find its footing.
The Braves actually haven’t lost two series in a row since early-mid June (unless you count the makeup game against the White Sox as culminating in a series loss). But, they also haven’t won back-to-back series since taking sets from the Rays, Tigers, and Yankees right after their last streak of consecutive series losses. The result has been pretty much treading water, which the Braves have seemed content to do pretty much the whole year.
The Reds come into the series scuffling as well, having suffered a three-game sweep in Washington to start the second half. Cincinnati is now tied with the Nationals with a 47-53 record but are just 4.0 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Despite losing four straight, the Reds have the best run differential of any of the Wild Card contenders except for the Braves. They are six games below their Pythagorean Expectation, though the fact that they’re only two games below their BaseRuns records suggests that they’ve been fortunate to score as many runs as they have.
That said, the Reds are 14th in the majors in runs scored and are tied for 11th with 111 home runs. However, they are tied for 25th in the majors with a 92 wRC+. The Reds made some noise in Spring Training about something strange considering their home ballpark: playing small ball. Things haven’t really worked out that way, though — while they are, given their vocalizations, predictably towards the bottom in stuff like contact quality, boasting the majors’ worst average exit velocity and a bottom-three hard hit rate, they also have an unremarkable walk rate and the majors’ fifth-highest strikeout rate, with a generic launch angle profile. Though they do lead in MLB in steals, they’re not very pronounced in terms of bunts, bunt hits, productive outs, yadda yadda yadda.
Offensively, Elly de la Cruz and Jonathan India have been their stars; the former is outhitting his xwOBA but playing great defense and running all over the place, with 47 steals already on the year. Unfortunately, though, they’ve also given a ton of PAs to guys that have been just straight-up awful, especially Will Benson and Santiago Espinal, but also guys like Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Nick Martini.
Despite dealing with injuries to their pitching staff, they are 13th in the majors with a 3.88 ERA and tied for 16th with a 4.11 FIP. It’s actually kind of weird that they’re eight in fWAR considering their home ballpark, especially since they have an ERA < FIP < xFIP thing going on. How does that happen? Only in 2024, I guess. Though unheralded, they have one of the best bullpens in the game, with Nick Martinez being excellent in a long relief role, Fernando Cruz having great peripherals (and a sad ERA, but oh well), and very few guys that have struggled, aside from familiar name Lucas Sims.
Really, the Reds have been largely done in by a 9-18 May, and even then, that was mostly because there was an eight-game losing streak that crossed over into the month. Their season has been really bizarre, as they’ve done stuff like sweep the Yankees and Dodgers and beat the Phillies in a series on the road, but then also have failed to beat most reasonable contenders.
Monday, July 22, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Hunter Greene (19 GS, 110.1 IP, 27.6 K%, 9.9 BB%, 3.34 ERA, 3.63 FIP)
The Braves will have their work cut out for them in the series opener against hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene, who is 19th in fWAR among starting pitchers. Greene entered the break pitching well having allowed just two runs over his last 17 2/3 innings with a 23/6 K/BB ratio (three starts). On the season, though, he kind of has a weird thing going on with a 78 ERA-, 86 FIP-, and 104 xFIP-, so at some point the HR/FB might regress, and it’s somewhat strange it hasn’t already considering his home park. Greene has faced the Braves twice in his career and has allowed six runs and has 17 strikeouts in 11 innings. He had a 10/0 K/BB ratio against the Braves early last year in a game the Reds ended up losing, but beat them in his MLB debut in 2022 despite allowing two homers in five innings of work.
Reynaldo López (17 GS, 95.2 IP, 24.6 K%, 8.8 BB%, 1.88 ERA, 3.06 FIP)
Reynaldo López was one of the biggest stories of the first half for the Atlanta Braves and they will need him to continue his strong performance over the final two months of the season. The All-Star Break probably came at a good time for Lopez who allowed a season-high 11 hits but just three runs over six innings in his last start against the Padres. There was a point where it looked like Lopez might be hitting a wall, with a combined 11/8 K/BB ratio in 9 1⁄3 innings spanning two starts, but he rebounded with an 8/3 K/BB ratio over his last 12 innings, so we’re still in a bit of a wait-and-see mode in terms of which way his season will break from here on out.
Tuesday, July 23, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
TBD
The Reds haven’t announced their starter for Tuesday’s game, and it appears that they will need to make a roster move. An alternative for them could just be starting Nick Martinez, who struggled as a starter in April but has been dominant as a long reliever since; Martinez hasn’t pitched in a week to this point and might just make sense as a guy to reserve for this game.
Chris Sale (18 GS, 110.0 IP, 32.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 2.70 ERA, 2.23 FIP)
Chris Sale will make his first start of the second half in Tuesday’s game against the Reds. Sale has exceeded every expectation the Braves could have had for him when they acquired him during an offseason trade with Boston. Sale finished the “first half” just barely behind Garrett Crochet for the MLB pitching fWAR lead, despite two fewer starts than Crochet. He could take over the lead with a good outing in this game. Sale allowed one run and struck out four over five innings in his last start against the Padres. It was actually his worst start of the year by xFIP, as he managed just a 4/2 K/BB ratio. Sale has only faced the Reds once in his career and it came last season, where he allowed one run and struck out five before exiting after 3 2/3 innings.
Wednesday, July 24, 12:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Frankie Montas (18 GS, 89.0 IP, 18.8 K%, 9.9 BB%, 4.85 ERA, 5.04 FIP)
Veteran right-hander Frankie Montas will get the ball for the Reds in Wednesday’s series finale. Montas comes into the start struggling, having allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Nationals. He’s allowed 12 runs over his last 11 2/3 innings, with poor peripherals to boot. After a pretty bad first two months of the year, he mostly avoided blow-ups in June, but is back to struggling at this point. Wednesday’s game will be his first time facing the Braves in his career.
TBD
Atlanta hasn’t announced its pitching plans for Wednesday. Dylan Dodd was called up to replace Max Fried on the active roster and would be a candidate if he isn’t needed before then. Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver both pitched this weekend and won’t be options for Wednesday.
<img alt="Cincinnati Reds v Washington Nationals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lhtdY0xnK-42rJbCy3O0ddW2xaw=/17x0:5120x3402/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73473781/2162729639.0.jpg">
Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images
The Braves will continue their homestand Monday where they will begin a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds. Instead of building some momentum coming out of the All-Star Break, the Atlanta Braves fell flat by dropping two of three to the St. Louis Cardinals, and may have reached the breaking point when it comes to injuries.
The Braves placed Max Fried on the Injured List ahead of Sunday’s game and then saw Ozzie Albies leave Sunday’s loss in the ninth inning. Brian Snitker later confirmed that Albies is also headed to the Injured List. With nine days remaining before the Trade Deadline, Atlanta needs reinforcements in the worst way possible. When you consider the long list of injuries, the Braves are fortunate to be 10 games over .500 and in position for a spot in the postseason. Still, if they hope to make any noise at all once they get there, then the roster needs help and the offense needs to finally find its footing.
The Braves actually haven’t lost two series in a row since early-mid June (unless you count the makeup game against the White Sox as culminating in a series loss). But, they also haven’t won back-to-back series since taking sets from the Rays, Tigers, and Yankees right after their last streak of consecutive series losses. The result has been pretty much treading water, which the Braves have seemed content to do pretty much the whole year.
The Reds come into the series scuffling as well, having suffered a three-game sweep in Washington to start the second half. Cincinnati is now tied with the Nationals with a 47-53 record but are just 4.0 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Despite losing four straight, the Reds have the best run differential of any of the Wild Card contenders except for the Braves. They are six games below their Pythagorean Expectation, though the fact that they’re only two games below their BaseRuns records suggests that they’ve been fortunate to score as many runs as they have.
That said, the Reds are 14th in the majors in runs scored and are tied for 11th with 111 home runs. However, they are tied for 25th in the majors with a 92 wRC+. The Reds made some noise in Spring Training about something strange considering their home ballpark: playing small ball. Things haven’t really worked out that way, though — while they are, given their vocalizations, predictably towards the bottom in stuff like contact quality, boasting the majors’ worst average exit velocity and a bottom-three hard hit rate, they also have an unremarkable walk rate and the majors’ fifth-highest strikeout rate, with a generic launch angle profile. Though they do lead in MLB in steals, they’re not very pronounced in terms of bunts, bunt hits, productive outs, yadda yadda yadda.
Offensively, Elly de la Cruz and Jonathan India have been their stars; the former is outhitting his xwOBA but playing great defense and running all over the place, with 47 steals already on the year. Unfortunately, though, they’ve also given a ton of PAs to guys that have been just straight-up awful, especially Will Benson and Santiago Espinal, but also guys like Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Nick Martini.
Despite dealing with injuries to their pitching staff, they are 13th in the majors with a 3.88 ERA and tied for 16th with a 4.11 FIP. It’s actually kind of weird that they’re eight in fWAR considering their home ballpark, especially since they have an ERA < FIP < xFIP thing going on. How does that happen? Only in 2024, I guess. Though unheralded, they have one of the best bullpens in the game, with Nick Martinez being excellent in a long relief role, Fernando Cruz having great peripherals (and a sad ERA, but oh well), and very few guys that have struggled, aside from familiar name Lucas Sims.
Really, the Reds have been largely done in by a 9-18 May, and even then, that was mostly because there was an eight-game losing streak that crossed over into the month. Their season has been really bizarre, as they’ve done stuff like sweep the Yankees and Dodgers and beat the Phillies in a series on the road, but then also have failed to beat most reasonable contenders.
Monday, July 22, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Hunter Greene (19 GS, 110.1 IP, 27.6 K%, 9.9 BB%, 3.34 ERA, 3.63 FIP)
The Braves will have their work cut out for them in the series opener against hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene, who is 19th in fWAR among starting pitchers. Greene entered the break pitching well having allowed just two runs over his last 17 2/3 innings with a 23/6 K/BB ratio (three starts). On the season, though, he kind of has a weird thing going on with a 78 ERA-, 86 FIP-, and 104 xFIP-, so at some point the HR/FB might regress, and it’s somewhat strange it hasn’t already considering his home park. Greene has faced the Braves twice in his career and has allowed six runs and has 17 strikeouts in 11 innings. He had a 10/0 K/BB ratio against the Braves early last year in a game the Reds ended up losing, but beat them in his MLB debut in 2022 despite allowing two homers in five innings of work.
Reynaldo López (17 GS, 95.2 IP, 24.6 K%, 8.8 BB%, 1.88 ERA, 3.06 FIP)
Reynaldo López was one of the biggest stories of the first half for the Atlanta Braves and they will need him to continue his strong performance over the final two months of the season. The All-Star Break probably came at a good time for Lopez who allowed a season-high 11 hits but just three runs over six innings in his last start against the Padres. There was a point where it looked like Lopez might be hitting a wall, with a combined 11/8 K/BB ratio in 9 1⁄3 innings spanning two starts, but he rebounded with an 8/3 K/BB ratio over his last 12 innings, so we’re still in a bit of a wait-and-see mode in terms of which way his season will break from here on out.
Tuesday, July 23, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
TBD
The Reds haven’t announced their starter for Tuesday’s game, and it appears that they will need to make a roster move. An alternative for them could just be starting Nick Martinez, who struggled as a starter in April but has been dominant as a long reliever since; Martinez hasn’t pitched in a week to this point and might just make sense as a guy to reserve for this game.
Chris Sale (18 GS, 110.0 IP, 32.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 2.70 ERA, 2.23 FIP)
Chris Sale will make his first start of the second half in Tuesday’s game against the Reds. Sale has exceeded every expectation the Braves could have had for him when they acquired him during an offseason trade with Boston. Sale finished the “first half” just barely behind Garrett Crochet for the MLB pitching fWAR lead, despite two fewer starts than Crochet. He could take over the lead with a good outing in this game. Sale allowed one run and struck out four over five innings in his last start against the Padres. It was actually his worst start of the year by xFIP, as he managed just a 4/2 K/BB ratio. Sale has only faced the Reds once in his career and it came last season, where he allowed one run and struck out five before exiting after 3 2/3 innings.
Wednesday, July 24, 12:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Frankie Montas (18 GS, 89.0 IP, 18.8 K%, 9.9 BB%, 4.85 ERA, 5.04 FIP)
Veteran right-hander Frankie Montas will get the ball for the Reds in Wednesday’s series finale. Montas comes into the start struggling, having allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Nationals. He’s allowed 12 runs over his last 11 2/3 innings, with poor peripherals to boot. After a pretty bad first two months of the year, he mostly avoided blow-ups in June, but is back to struggling at this point. Wednesday’s game will be his first time facing the Braves in his career.
TBD
Atlanta hasn’t announced its pitching plans for Wednesday. Dylan Dodd was called up to replace Max Fried on the active roster and would be a candidate if he isn’t needed before then. Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver both pitched this weekend and won’t be options for Wednesday.
Link to original article
