<img alt="Atlanta Braves v St. Louis Cardinals - Game Two" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/V97VAd6WXts-CLQBaDrJ7tJgN6I=/0x161:2000x1494/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73471852/2158834212.0.jpg">
Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
The Braves will use Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder against the Cardinals’ Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray For the second time in about three weeks, rain has forced the Braves and Cardinals into a doubleheader situation. The Braves split the first such doubleheader, back on June 26, in St. Louis, and now, the ostensibly drenched threads of fate will make them do it all again. Well, provided that rain doesn’t interfere again, which it very well might, given the forecast for the Atlanta area on Saturday.
The Braves came out of the All-Star Break doing what they’ve been doing all season, fretting about the workload of their rotation, and acting accordingly. Neither Chris Sale nor Reynaldo Lopez were scheduled to pitch in their first post-Break series. With yesterday’s rainout and the scheduled doubleheader, events have allowed the Braves to get even more aggressive in this regard, as they’ll be pushing Spencer Schwellenbach back another two days, to Sunday’s scheduled series finale, and calling up Bryce Elder to start one of the games, giving Max Fried an even longer layoff coming out of the Break. That’s certainly a windfall when it comes to managing the rotation’s innings, though a series in which Elder takes a starting spot initially slotted for Fried is not one with the same win expectancy oomph, especially when Elder is now lined up to start against Sonny Gray.
The first game of this doubleheader is scheduled for 1:07 pm ET, and will feature a veteran matchup of Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson. Morton continues to have essentially a cromulent age-40 campaign with a 97 ERA-, 105 FIP-, and 99 xFIP-. He’s essentially alternated good and bad starts for a while, with the dour exception of getting blasted his last two times out: he’s allowed 11 homers all season, but four of them have come in his last two starts. Morton continues to have issues with lefties (4.34 FIP, 4.42 xFIP against them compared to a 3.99 FIP and 3.45 xFIP against righties), which doesn’t bode well given that the Cardinals generally stack the latter half of their lineup with lefty bats when facing a right-handed starter. Three of the four homers he’s yielded in his last two starts have come against righties, however, which is not great.
Morton’s mound opponent, Kyle Gibson, is also having himself a cromulent season at age 36: 104/106/97. Unlike Morton, his peripherals have gotten better as the season has gone along, but he’s currently mired in a span where he’s been charged with 15 runs in 18 innings across four starts, while putting up a 23/10 K/BB ratio (187/112/85). That stretch started with a legitimately bad start against the Braves (four innings, charged with four runs, four strikeouts, but five walks) but saw him dominate the Pirates and Nationals while getting BABIPed or HR/FBed in the two starts since, before another legitimately poor outing at least the Cubs. The Cardinals actually won the Pirates and Nationals games, though, so they’ll probably take it.
Like Morton, Gibson also has notable platoon splits, but Gibson’s are absurdly massive: 5.08 FIP, 4.69 xFIP against lefties, and 3.36 FIP, 3.16 xFIP against righties. The problem for the Braves is that they don’t really have the lefty bats to throw against Gibson, though it should be noted that in Gibson’s last start against the Braves, the lefties went 2-for-8 with three walks and just one strikeout, so they’re capable of pulling their weight against him.
Game Two looks like a lot more of a mismatch. Elder, who is apparently now the designated “break in case of doubleheader” option for the Braves, has a fifth-starter-worthy 137/115/113 line. That said, he did have one of his actually good starts in a doubleheader against the Cardinals, with a 4/0 K/BB ratio in six innings. The runs against him came early the second time through, and he even retired the first four of the St. Louis lineup the third time through, but the Braves still lost, 4-1. Elder then followed that up with a poor outing against the Diamondbacks, but in that one, all the issues came the third time through (and the Braves ended up winning late anyway).
So, while there may be hope for Elder, the problem is that the Braves have to face Sonny Gray, and Gray has been great: 83/65/69. His only problem, such as it is, is that 14 runs have come across the plate against him in his last 16 1⁄3 innings spanning three starts, despite a collective 18/2 K/BB ratio and just one homer yielded (151/59/65). Basically, both Gibson and Gray entered the All-Star Break with some real paranormal shenanigans plaguing them, and while the Braves will take a continuation of those things, it’s not too likely to persist.
The Braves last faced Gray last June, where he had a 5/1 K/BB ratio against them but gave up a go-ahead homer to Marcell Ozuna in the seventh in an eventual 4-1 Braves win. Gibson and Morton faced off against one another in two starts during the 2022 season (and Gibson also made a third start against the Braves that year), splitting the two matchups. Morton had poor starts against the Cardinals in 2023 and 2022, but dominated them in 2021.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Saturday, July 20, 1:07 p.m. ET (Game One); 7:20 p.m. ET (Game Two)
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan (La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM available for Game One only)
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v St. Louis Cardinals - Game Two" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/V97VAd6WXts-CLQBaDrJ7tJgN6I=/0x161:2000x1494/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73471852/2158834212.0.jpg">
Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
The Braves will use Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder against the Cardinals’ Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray For the second time in about three weeks, rain has forced the Braves and Cardinals into a doubleheader situation. The Braves split the first such doubleheader, back on June 26, in St. Louis, and now, the ostensibly drenched threads of fate will make them do it all again. Well, provided that rain doesn’t interfere again, which it very well might, given the forecast for the Atlanta area on Saturday.
The Braves came out of the All-Star Break doing what they’ve been doing all season, fretting about the workload of their rotation, and acting accordingly. Neither Chris Sale nor Reynaldo Lopez were scheduled to pitch in their first post-Break series. With yesterday’s rainout and the scheduled doubleheader, events have allowed the Braves to get even more aggressive in this regard, as they’ll be pushing Spencer Schwellenbach back another two days, to Sunday’s scheduled series finale, and calling up Bryce Elder to start one of the games, giving Max Fried an even longer layoff coming out of the Break. That’s certainly a windfall when it comes to managing the rotation’s innings, though a series in which Elder takes a starting spot initially slotted for Fried is not one with the same win expectancy oomph, especially when Elder is now lined up to start against Sonny Gray.
The first game of this doubleheader is scheduled for 1:07 pm ET, and will feature a veteran matchup of Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson. Morton continues to have essentially a cromulent age-40 campaign with a 97 ERA-, 105 FIP-, and 99 xFIP-. He’s essentially alternated good and bad starts for a while, with the dour exception of getting blasted his last two times out: he’s allowed 11 homers all season, but four of them have come in his last two starts. Morton continues to have issues with lefties (4.34 FIP, 4.42 xFIP against them compared to a 3.99 FIP and 3.45 xFIP against righties), which doesn’t bode well given that the Cardinals generally stack the latter half of their lineup with lefty bats when facing a right-handed starter. Three of the four homers he’s yielded in his last two starts have come against righties, however, which is not great.
Morton’s mound opponent, Kyle Gibson, is also having himself a cromulent season at age 36: 104/106/97. Unlike Morton, his peripherals have gotten better as the season has gone along, but he’s currently mired in a span where he’s been charged with 15 runs in 18 innings across four starts, while putting up a 23/10 K/BB ratio (187/112/85). That stretch started with a legitimately bad start against the Braves (four innings, charged with four runs, four strikeouts, but five walks) but saw him dominate the Pirates and Nationals while getting BABIPed or HR/FBed in the two starts since, before another legitimately poor outing at least the Cubs. The Cardinals actually won the Pirates and Nationals games, though, so they’ll probably take it.
Like Morton, Gibson also has notable platoon splits, but Gibson’s are absurdly massive: 5.08 FIP, 4.69 xFIP against lefties, and 3.36 FIP, 3.16 xFIP against righties. The problem for the Braves is that they don’t really have the lefty bats to throw against Gibson, though it should be noted that in Gibson’s last start against the Braves, the lefties went 2-for-8 with three walks and just one strikeout, so they’re capable of pulling their weight against him.
Game Two looks like a lot more of a mismatch. Elder, who is apparently now the designated “break in case of doubleheader” option for the Braves, has a fifth-starter-worthy 137/115/113 line. That said, he did have one of his actually good starts in a doubleheader against the Cardinals, with a 4/0 K/BB ratio in six innings. The runs against him came early the second time through, and he even retired the first four of the St. Louis lineup the third time through, but the Braves still lost, 4-1. Elder then followed that up with a poor outing against the Diamondbacks, but in that one, all the issues came the third time through (and the Braves ended up winning late anyway).
So, while there may be hope for Elder, the problem is that the Braves have to face Sonny Gray, and Gray has been great: 83/65/69. His only problem, such as it is, is that 14 runs have come across the plate against him in his last 16 1⁄3 innings spanning three starts, despite a collective 18/2 K/BB ratio and just one homer yielded (151/59/65). Basically, both Gibson and Gray entered the All-Star Break with some real paranormal shenanigans plaguing them, and while the Braves will take a continuation of those things, it’s not too likely to persist.
The Braves last faced Gray last June, where he had a 5/1 K/BB ratio against them but gave up a go-ahead homer to Marcell Ozuna in the seventh in an eventual 4-1 Braves win. Gibson and Morton faced off against one another in two starts during the 2022 season (and Gibson also made a third start against the Braves that year), splitting the two matchups. Morton had poor starts against the Cardinals in 2023 and 2022, but dominated them in 2021.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Saturday, July 20, 1:07 p.m. ET (Game One); 7:20 p.m. ET (Game Two)
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan (La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM available for Game One only)
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