<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VcxqPKu6WpKhb8-AM2QAsI-Hnl8=/0x1:4190x2794/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73466548/2161836984.0.jpg">
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Atlanta’s starting second baseman having a strong finish to the regular season could help propel the team’s offense. He is the best offensive second baseman in franchise history.
There’s little argument that statement isn’t valid now, but by the end of this season, there shouldn’t be any doubt left that Ozzie Albies is the best second baseman in franchise history.
Not just Atlanta Braves history - but in the stories annals of the Braves going back to the last 1800s.
Albies - who is already the franchise leader in home runs, RBI, runs, doubles, stolen bases and slugging percentage for second basemen - could take the franchise lead in hits by the end of this season.
With the struggles of Atlanta’s offense in 2024 well-documented, the performance of team’s current longest tenured player will be a major factor in the team’s ability pick-up-the-pace coming out of the All-Star break.
It was a break that hampered much of Albies’ first half - or a fracture, to be more specific. The injury to Albies’ toe in April didn’t cost him much time off the field, but even though he returned only weeks after taking a pitch off his foot, his offensive performance suffered mightily.
Prior to his toe injury, Albies had a 146 wRC+ with a triple-slash of .317/.386/.492 and seemed to be well on his way to another All-Star season.
In May, Albies’ performance tanked, slashing .233/.310/.311 with a June that was just-as-bad, hitting .214/.252/.393.
May has never been Albies’ month of choice. Only once in his career has he posted a wRC+ better than 100 (2021) and he has had two months worst that his 78 wRC+ this season. June, on the other hand, has seen Albies post a wRC+ of better than 134 three times and his 76 wRC+ this year was the worst of his career.
This year, those two horrific back-to-back months coincided with the loss of Ronald Acuña, Jr. for the season and Michael Harris II, who has yet to return from a hamstring issue.
How much of Albies’ downturn at the plate was the injury?
That’s tough to say for certain with out asking the man himself, but an indicator could be base running value. In each of his qualifying seasons, Albies has ranged between a percentile of 90 and 100 (including two 100 seasons) in base running value according the Baseball Savant.
Last year, he ranked in the 90th percentile. This year? He’s in the 30th percentile.
How could a player who is still only 27-years-old and has been an elite base runner his entire MLB career become so bad, so quickly? Maybe it was the toe. If the toe had that much impact on his running ability, then it is fair to extrapolate that it was a contributing factor to his downturn at the plate, if not the outright reason.
There optimize for Albies heading into August and beyond. If the Braves are able to dig themselves out of the 8.5 game hole in the National League East division race, he will be a big reason why.
So far this July, Albies has hit .280/.315/.480, which is in-line with his career averages, and his 118 wRC+ this month is the second best of his career for the month of July. For his career, he has a 102 wRC+ in August (which includes an almost unfathomable -34 wRC+ in 2020) and set a career high last year. But by far, Albies has been at his best in September and October, with four seasons with a wRC of 138 or better -and only one season below 100 way back in 2018.
Another positive tilt is based more in what is hopefully a correction to a historical average. Although Albies isn’t the only Brave to struggle against the fastball this season, during his career, Albies has excelled against the fastball but this season he has not. As an example, his run value against the fastball so far this season is 0. Zero.
Excluding his 2020 season, since 2019, Albies has had a run value against the fastball of each season of 19, 11, 8, 14 and then this season’s big old goose egg. If he can find his groove against the the four-seamer, maybe, just maybe the surge will be strong.
The more one pokes around at various number - across the board under performance against expected outcomes like xSLG and xwOBA and hard hit rate - the easier it is to buy-in on Albies being one of the biggest second-half keys to the Braves offense.
With 67 games left in the regular season, the Braves don’t have a lot of runway to try to capture their seventh NL East Division crown in-a-row. If they want to make it a race down the stretch in September, they will need Albies to lead the offensive charge.
He can do that.
He’s the franchise’s best second baseman for a reason.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VcxqPKu6WpKhb8-AM2QAsI-Hnl8=/0x1:4190x2794/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73466548/2161836984.0.jpg">
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Atlanta’s starting second baseman having a strong finish to the regular season could help propel the team’s offense. He is the best offensive second baseman in franchise history.
There’s little argument that statement isn’t valid now, but by the end of this season, there shouldn’t be any doubt left that Ozzie Albies is the best second baseman in franchise history.
Not just Atlanta Braves history - but in the stories annals of the Braves going back to the last 1800s.
Albies - who is already the franchise leader in home runs, RBI, runs, doubles, stolen bases and slugging percentage for second basemen - could take the franchise lead in hits by the end of this season.
With the struggles of Atlanta’s offense in 2024 well-documented, the performance of team’s current longest tenured player will be a major factor in the team’s ability pick-up-the-pace coming out of the All-Star break.
It was a break that hampered much of Albies’ first half - or a fracture, to be more specific. The injury to Albies’ toe in April didn’t cost him much time off the field, but even though he returned only weeks after taking a pitch off his foot, his offensive performance suffered mightily.
Prior to his toe injury, Albies had a 146 wRC+ with a triple-slash of .317/.386/.492 and seemed to be well on his way to another All-Star season.
In May, Albies’ performance tanked, slashing .233/.310/.311 with a June that was just-as-bad, hitting .214/.252/.393.
May has never been Albies’ month of choice. Only once in his career has he posted a wRC+ better than 100 (2021) and he has had two months worst that his 78 wRC+ this season. June, on the other hand, has seen Albies post a wRC+ of better than 134 three times and his 76 wRC+ this year was the worst of his career.
This year, those two horrific back-to-back months coincided with the loss of Ronald Acuña, Jr. for the season and Michael Harris II, who has yet to return from a hamstring issue.
How much of Albies’ downturn at the plate was the injury?
That’s tough to say for certain with out asking the man himself, but an indicator could be base running value. In each of his qualifying seasons, Albies has ranged between a percentile of 90 and 100 (including two 100 seasons) in base running value according the Baseball Savant.
Last year, he ranked in the 90th percentile. This year? He’s in the 30th percentile.
How could a player who is still only 27-years-old and has been an elite base runner his entire MLB career become so bad, so quickly? Maybe it was the toe. If the toe had that much impact on his running ability, then it is fair to extrapolate that it was a contributing factor to his downturn at the plate, if not the outright reason.
There optimize for Albies heading into August and beyond. If the Braves are able to dig themselves out of the 8.5 game hole in the National League East division race, he will be a big reason why.
So far this July, Albies has hit .280/.315/.480, which is in-line with his career averages, and his 118 wRC+ this month is the second best of his career for the month of July. For his career, he has a 102 wRC+ in August (which includes an almost unfathomable -34 wRC+ in 2020) and set a career high last year. But by far, Albies has been at his best in September and October, with four seasons with a wRC of 138 or better -and only one season below 100 way back in 2018.
Another positive tilt is based more in what is hopefully a correction to a historical average. Although Albies isn’t the only Brave to struggle against the fastball this season, during his career, Albies has excelled against the fastball but this season he has not. As an example, his run value against the fastball so far this season is 0. Zero.
Excluding his 2020 season, since 2019, Albies has had a run value against the fastball of each season of 19, 11, 8, 14 and then this season’s big old goose egg. If he can find his groove against the the four-seamer, maybe, just maybe the surge will be strong.
The more one pokes around at various number - across the board under performance against expected outcomes like xSLG and xwOBA and hard hit rate - the easier it is to buy-in on Albies being one of the biggest second-half keys to the Braves offense.
With 67 games left in the regular season, the Braves don’t have a lot of runway to try to capture their seventh NL East Division crown in-a-row. If they want to make it a race down the stretch in September, they will need Albies to lead the offensive charge.
He can do that.
He’s the franchise’s best second baseman for a reason.
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