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Cam Caminiti | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Taking a look at how the Braves did in the MLB Draft and just how signable the draftees are. The 2024 MLB Draft is now officially in the books with all three days completed. That means it is time to start to look over the Atlanta Braves draft class as a whole, and get an idea of how likely the Braves 20 selections are to sign with the team.
No. 24: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ)
Caminti was a steal of a talent at No. 24 as a Top 10-15 talent on pretty much every board available online. He’s an elite young arm, who is still only 17-years-old after reclassifying up a year, a legitimate two-way talent as a prep, and comes with a big league bloodline as the cousin of former NL MVP Ken Caminiti. As a first round pick he should be expected to sign, and is very likely to receive an overslot bonus from the Braves.
No. 62: Carter Holton, LHP, Vanderbilt
Holton is a local kid who has been on the draft radar for years because of his high-end stuff. He’s got some risk as he isn’t very big and had some injury issues pop up in each of the past two seasons. That leads to some questions on whether he is a starter or a reliever longterm, but with his stuff and ability to throw strikes, he would have upside in either role. He is also a guy expected to sign, and probably around slot value.
No. 99: Luke Sinnard, RHP, Indiana
Sinnard is another risk/reward arm to start the draft for the Braves. Last spring many thought he was a Day 1 pick, but he blew out his elbow in the tournament and Tommy John cost him this season as well as dropping him to the third round. If he is able to get back to 100% he could be a real steal in the third round. Reports are that he has already started throwing again, though it is questionable he would pitch in a game this year. He is another player likely to sign, as Day 2 picks almost always sign due to teams discussing numbers before picking them.
No. 129: Herick Hernandez, LHP, Miami
Hernandez was drafted by the Reds out of JUCO late in the 2023 MLB Draft, but chose to stay home and attend Miami. He’s not very big, only has one above-average pitch, and didn’t post the best stat line this year - though he did strikeout 12.2 per nine in the tough ACC. Still the Braves like his fastball with its vertical break. Until he’s able to develop the secondaries the only place he can be projected is as a reliever, but he is only 20-years-old with just one year of major college baseball under his belt. He is also expected to sign, and there is a good chance it comes in underslot.
No. 161: Nick Montgomery, C, Cypress HS (CA)
Montgomery is the first hitter and the only hitter the Braves drafted through the first two days of this draft. He’s a big kid with huge raw power, so it’s easy to see the appeal - especially if you think he can stick behind the plate. He will need to work on his defense and make some changes to his swing, but if he is able to hit he would have a big league future even if catching wasn’t his future. He is also likely to sign, and likely for overslot.
No. 191: Ethan Bagwell, RHP, Collinsville HS (IL)
Bagwell is the second prep arm the Braves selected, though not quite on Caminiti’s level. He has already hit 97 MPH and shown promise with the slider, but he is going to need to work on a number of things like maintaining velocity, the consistency of the slider, the change, and possibly some of his mechanics to improve his command. Still this is a nice upside play on a kid that has real tools for the player development staff to work with. He is expected to sign, and may be a bit overslot.
No. 221: Brett Sears, RHP, Nebraska
Sears is a pitchability senior sign who broke out in a big way this year. He dominated the Big Ten posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with 101 strikeouts to 19 walks after being used exclusively out of the pen in 2023. He’s already 24-years-old and is expected to sign significantly underslot.
No. 251: Logan Samuels, RHP, Montevallo
Samuels is a senior sign candidate with a slightly unusual background in that he is still considered projectable - a rarity for college arms, and even moreso with senior signs. He comes from one of the smallest schools and didn’t post the best stats, but the Braves clearly liked him. He is expected to sign and have it be significantly underslot.
No. 281: Owen Hackman, RHP, Loyola Marymount
Owen Hackman may be the most intriguing player out of the senior signs. He has the fastball and breaking ball that have drawn notice, performed solidly in the West Coast Conference, and had a very strong (but limited) showing in the Cape Cod League back in 2022. He is expected to sign and be underslot.
No. 311: Jacob Kroeger, LHP, Maryville
Kroeger is the Braves final senior sign and after a bit of a breakout for Maryville went to get more looks in the MLB Draft League this summer. He struggled a bit in the MLBDL, but the Braves saw something they wanted to work with. He is expected to sign and be significantly underslot.
No. 341: Patrick Clohisy, OF, Saint Louis
Clohisy is a big time on base guy who walks more than he strikes out, though his power is more to the gaps than over the fence. He was as productive as it gets and was considered a candidate to transfer to an SEC school if he wasn’t going pro. He feels a bit similar to 2023 selection Jace Grady for his hit tool and ability to get on base. He is expected to sign with the Braves.
No. 371: Cayman Goode, RHP, Freeman HS (VA)
The Braves dipped back into the prep arm pool to pull out Goode, and the VCU commit has an intriguing fastball and the ability to really spin two breaking balls - though they do blend together a bit and he may end up with just one as a pro. Goode is an upside play for the player development team to work with. He is also expected to sign.
No. 401: Colby Jones, SS, NW Florida State JUCO
Colby Jones went and put up two very productive and similar seasons in JUCO and earned a scholarship to Alabama for next year for his efforts. He doesn’t have loud tools, but he is one of those “gamer” types who gets the most out of the tools he does have. Jones should be expected to sign.
No. 431: Mason Guerra, 1B, Oregon State
Guerra was once seen as a possibly top prospect, and while he has had his moments for OSU he hasn’t quite lived up to that hype. He only got 51 plate appearances as a freshman, posted a .988 OPS in 2023, and then this year dropped down to .828. He is no longer the middle infielder he was in high school, and was announced at first base. Guerra may no longer be the big prospect, but there is talent in his bat and the hope is that the Braves can get a little more out of him. Guerra is more likely to sign than not.
No. 461: Owen Carey, OF, Londonderry HS (NH)
Carey is a projectable, athletic lefty in a state without much competition. He really put himself on the radar by going to a summer league and hitting very well against college pitching - a similar rise to that of Nacho Alvarez a couple years ago after his season ended because of the hit tool. Carey is a Rutgers commitment, and while raw, would be an interesting player to watch develop. There is a good chance that he signs.
No. 491: Titus Dumitru, OF, New Mexico State
In one year with the Aggies Dumitru just mashed. The asterisk that the Aggies play at a super hitter friendly park needs to come in, but he did prove in a summer league last year that the pop in his bat isn’t just a product of his ballpark. He’s a guy being drafted based on his production and power tool, and has a good chance of signing.
No. 521: Jacob Shafer, RHP, UNC Wilmington
A 6’8’, 240 sinker/slider pitcher, Shafer spent the last four years at UNCW with mediocre results as a starter. It is worth noting that he went to the Cape this year and last year, and had better results out of the pen - though only had 20 combined innings between the two years. He had entered the transfer portal after the season, but is now seen as a guy with a good chance of signing.
No. 551: Jake Steels, OF, Cal Poly
In two years at Cal Poly, Steels has hit a combined .352 with a .467 OBP with one more strikeout than walk. The centerfielder saw a big increase in his power production this year, going from eight total extra base hits last year to eight homers and 21 extra base hits in only 32 more plate appearances. He should be considered likely to sign.
No. 581: Dalton McIntyre, OF, Southern Miss
McIntyre appeared at USM this year after going to JUCO previously, and posted a very productive season while playing centerfield. He his .388 with a .447 OBP, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. He doesn’t have much power, but his 6’3’, 175-pound frame can add some projection. While he may never be much of a home run threat, there is some thought he could improve his power into the gaps. He has a good chance of signing.
No. 611: Eric Hartman, OF, Holy Trinity Academy (CAN)
Hartman was one of the top players in Canada this year and is a Michigan commitment. He’s got some promising tools and is a kid with very good makeup. He is probably the single player on this list where the odds of him signing aren’t especially good - though it isn’t out of the question.
More Thoughts
Overall it is a strong draft, but the overall success of this draft class is going to be very dependent on Caminiti’s success since so much of their total draft pool is going to be going to him. If Caminiti hits, this class doesn’t need much more to look back and say it was a successful class. However if Caminiti doesn’t hit, it will be a bit tougher for the class to be viewed as successful since there a lot more potential contributors in this class than there are potential impact guys.
There were a couple of themes to this draft for the Braves that are worth noting. Despite only having one batter through the first two days, the Braves loaded up on them on Day 3 to end up with nine out of their 20 selections being bats. With the arms is is clear that the Braves value vertical break on the fastball, and are willing to overlook players not having the best stat lines in college. This can be said a bit about the 2023 draft as well, and while it’s too early to form any opinion of the strategy, it is worth noting that it is very much there.
The other thing is with the hitters, the thing they have appeared to value the most with their hitters is hit tool and production. Out of the nine bats they drafted, the only ones with some question to their hit tools are Montgomery, Guerra, and maybe Hartman. Again it is too early to make judgements with this strategy, but needs to be pointed out that it is being used.
And with that it is time to start looking ahead to the 2025 MLB Draft, and a class that is considered stronger than the class this year.
<img alt="MLB: Draft" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RfelebbnwkZDggofU4jNSCRYYy4=/0x0:4358x2905/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73466042/usa_today_23743846.0.jpg">
Cam Caminiti | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Taking a look at how the Braves did in the MLB Draft and just how signable the draftees are. The 2024 MLB Draft is now officially in the books with all three days completed. That means it is time to start to look over the Atlanta Braves draft class as a whole, and get an idea of how likely the Braves 20 selections are to sign with the team.
No. 24: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ)
Caminti was a steal of a talent at No. 24 as a Top 10-15 talent on pretty much every board available online. He’s an elite young arm, who is still only 17-years-old after reclassifying up a year, a legitimate two-way talent as a prep, and comes with a big league bloodline as the cousin of former NL MVP Ken Caminiti. As a first round pick he should be expected to sign, and is very likely to receive an overslot bonus from the Braves.
No. 62: Carter Holton, LHP, Vanderbilt
Holton is a local kid who has been on the draft radar for years because of his high-end stuff. He’s got some risk as he isn’t very big and had some injury issues pop up in each of the past two seasons. That leads to some questions on whether he is a starter or a reliever longterm, but with his stuff and ability to throw strikes, he would have upside in either role. He is also a guy expected to sign, and probably around slot value.
No. 99: Luke Sinnard, RHP, Indiana
Sinnard is another risk/reward arm to start the draft for the Braves. Last spring many thought he was a Day 1 pick, but he blew out his elbow in the tournament and Tommy John cost him this season as well as dropping him to the third round. If he is able to get back to 100% he could be a real steal in the third round. Reports are that he has already started throwing again, though it is questionable he would pitch in a game this year. He is another player likely to sign, as Day 2 picks almost always sign due to teams discussing numbers before picking them.
No. 129: Herick Hernandez, LHP, Miami
Hernandez was drafted by the Reds out of JUCO late in the 2023 MLB Draft, but chose to stay home and attend Miami. He’s not very big, only has one above-average pitch, and didn’t post the best stat line this year - though he did strikeout 12.2 per nine in the tough ACC. Still the Braves like his fastball with its vertical break. Until he’s able to develop the secondaries the only place he can be projected is as a reliever, but he is only 20-years-old with just one year of major college baseball under his belt. He is also expected to sign, and there is a good chance it comes in underslot.
No. 161: Nick Montgomery, C, Cypress HS (CA)
Montgomery is the first hitter and the only hitter the Braves drafted through the first two days of this draft. He’s a big kid with huge raw power, so it’s easy to see the appeal - especially if you think he can stick behind the plate. He will need to work on his defense and make some changes to his swing, but if he is able to hit he would have a big league future even if catching wasn’t his future. He is also likely to sign, and likely for overslot.
No. 191: Ethan Bagwell, RHP, Collinsville HS (IL)
Bagwell is the second prep arm the Braves selected, though not quite on Caminiti’s level. He has already hit 97 MPH and shown promise with the slider, but he is going to need to work on a number of things like maintaining velocity, the consistency of the slider, the change, and possibly some of his mechanics to improve his command. Still this is a nice upside play on a kid that has real tools for the player development staff to work with. He is expected to sign, and may be a bit overslot.
No. 221: Brett Sears, RHP, Nebraska
Sears is a pitchability senior sign who broke out in a big way this year. He dominated the Big Ten posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with 101 strikeouts to 19 walks after being used exclusively out of the pen in 2023. He’s already 24-years-old and is expected to sign significantly underslot.
No. 251: Logan Samuels, RHP, Montevallo
Samuels is a senior sign candidate with a slightly unusual background in that he is still considered projectable - a rarity for college arms, and even moreso with senior signs. He comes from one of the smallest schools and didn’t post the best stats, but the Braves clearly liked him. He is expected to sign and have it be significantly underslot.
No. 281: Owen Hackman, RHP, Loyola Marymount
Owen Hackman may be the most intriguing player out of the senior signs. He has the fastball and breaking ball that have drawn notice, performed solidly in the West Coast Conference, and had a very strong (but limited) showing in the Cape Cod League back in 2022. He is expected to sign and be underslot.
No. 311: Jacob Kroeger, LHP, Maryville
Kroeger is the Braves final senior sign and after a bit of a breakout for Maryville went to get more looks in the MLB Draft League this summer. He struggled a bit in the MLBDL, but the Braves saw something they wanted to work with. He is expected to sign and be significantly underslot.
No. 341: Patrick Clohisy, OF, Saint Louis
Clohisy is a big time on base guy who walks more than he strikes out, though his power is more to the gaps than over the fence. He was as productive as it gets and was considered a candidate to transfer to an SEC school if he wasn’t going pro. He feels a bit similar to 2023 selection Jace Grady for his hit tool and ability to get on base. He is expected to sign with the Braves.
No. 371: Cayman Goode, RHP, Freeman HS (VA)
The Braves dipped back into the prep arm pool to pull out Goode, and the VCU commit has an intriguing fastball and the ability to really spin two breaking balls - though they do blend together a bit and he may end up with just one as a pro. Goode is an upside play for the player development team to work with. He is also expected to sign.
No. 401: Colby Jones, SS, NW Florida State JUCO
Colby Jones went and put up two very productive and similar seasons in JUCO and earned a scholarship to Alabama for next year for his efforts. He doesn’t have loud tools, but he is one of those “gamer” types who gets the most out of the tools he does have. Jones should be expected to sign.
No. 431: Mason Guerra, 1B, Oregon State
Guerra was once seen as a possibly top prospect, and while he has had his moments for OSU he hasn’t quite lived up to that hype. He only got 51 plate appearances as a freshman, posted a .988 OPS in 2023, and then this year dropped down to .828. He is no longer the middle infielder he was in high school, and was announced at first base. Guerra may no longer be the big prospect, but there is talent in his bat and the hope is that the Braves can get a little more out of him. Guerra is more likely to sign than not.
No. 461: Owen Carey, OF, Londonderry HS (NH)
Carey is a projectable, athletic lefty in a state without much competition. He really put himself on the radar by going to a summer league and hitting very well against college pitching - a similar rise to that of Nacho Alvarez a couple years ago after his season ended because of the hit tool. Carey is a Rutgers commitment, and while raw, would be an interesting player to watch develop. There is a good chance that he signs.
No. 491: Titus Dumitru, OF, New Mexico State
In one year with the Aggies Dumitru just mashed. The asterisk that the Aggies play at a super hitter friendly park needs to come in, but he did prove in a summer league last year that the pop in his bat isn’t just a product of his ballpark. He’s a guy being drafted based on his production and power tool, and has a good chance of signing.
No. 521: Jacob Shafer, RHP, UNC Wilmington
A 6’8’, 240 sinker/slider pitcher, Shafer spent the last four years at UNCW with mediocre results as a starter. It is worth noting that he went to the Cape this year and last year, and had better results out of the pen - though only had 20 combined innings between the two years. He had entered the transfer portal after the season, but is now seen as a guy with a good chance of signing.
No. 551: Jake Steels, OF, Cal Poly
In two years at Cal Poly, Steels has hit a combined .352 with a .467 OBP with one more strikeout than walk. The centerfielder saw a big increase in his power production this year, going from eight total extra base hits last year to eight homers and 21 extra base hits in only 32 more plate appearances. He should be considered likely to sign.
No. 581: Dalton McIntyre, OF, Southern Miss
McIntyre appeared at USM this year after going to JUCO previously, and posted a very productive season while playing centerfield. He his .388 with a .447 OBP, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. He doesn’t have much power, but his 6’3’, 175-pound frame can add some projection. While he may never be much of a home run threat, there is some thought he could improve his power into the gaps. He has a good chance of signing.
No. 611: Eric Hartman, OF, Holy Trinity Academy (CAN)
Hartman was one of the top players in Canada this year and is a Michigan commitment. He’s got some promising tools and is a kid with very good makeup. He is probably the single player on this list where the odds of him signing aren’t especially good - though it isn’t out of the question.
More Thoughts
Overall it is a strong draft, but the overall success of this draft class is going to be very dependent on Caminiti’s success since so much of their total draft pool is going to be going to him. If Caminiti hits, this class doesn’t need much more to look back and say it was a successful class. However if Caminiti doesn’t hit, it will be a bit tougher for the class to be viewed as successful since there a lot more potential contributors in this class than there are potential impact guys.
There were a couple of themes to this draft for the Braves that are worth noting. Despite only having one batter through the first two days, the Braves loaded up on them on Day 3 to end up with nine out of their 20 selections being bats. With the arms is is clear that the Braves value vertical break on the fastball, and are willing to overlook players not having the best stat lines in college. This can be said a bit about the 2023 draft as well, and while it’s too early to form any opinion of the strategy, it is worth noting that it is very much there.
The other thing is with the hitters, the thing they have appeared to value the most with their hitters is hit tool and production. Out of the nine bats they drafted, the only ones with some question to their hit tools are Montgomery, Guerra, and maybe Hartman. Again it is too early to make judgements with this strategy, but needs to be pointed out that it is being used.
And with that it is time to start looking ahead to the 2025 MLB Draft, and a class that is considered stronger than the class this year.
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