<img alt="Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yHtVFCVIDFCjJcLwoyBV-5-wWJ8=/0x0:4149x2766/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73463709/2161074722.0.jpg">
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images
Atlanta's pitching staff looks like it has what it takes to get deep into October. In order for that to actually happen, the offense absolutely must get better. Alright, time to take some basic inventory. We’ve reached the All-Star break and our Atlanta Braves are 53-42, eight-and-a-half games behind in the NL East and four games ahead of the Cardinals for the top spot in the Wild Card race. While Atlanta is currently rank outsiders to win the division with FanGraphs giving them only a 12 percent shot at retaining the NL East title, they are nearly a lock to get into the Postseason as they’re also carrying a 94 percent shot to play some more October baseball.
So while this is a far cry from the halcyon days of last season when Atlanta was busy steamrolling everybody in sight and going into the break with a 60-29 record, things are mostly just fine for the Braves right now. It’s always been about October for this team any way and as long as things continue on the way that they have then the Braves should have a relatively straightforward path to getting back into the Postseason — although they’ll probably have to deal with the Wild Card Round once they get there.
While you’re not going to publicly hear anybody associated with the team saying that they’re fine with this, I don’t think you’re going to see anybody in that clubhouse or front office devastated over the divisional run coming to a close and you might see them even embracing the idea of keeping right on playing into the Postseason instead of taking the Bye that they’ve had for the past couple of seasons with the new format. Winning the division is a definitely a point of professional pride for this club but also, the goal is clear: It’s getting far in the Postseason again instead going one-and-done for potentially the third straight season.
Which is why the way that this team has been operating this season has been frustratingly fascinating. Let’s start with the part that’s made it so frustrating, which is that the Braves have been delivering way worse production at the plate this season when compared to recent years. The Braves as a team have been hitting .241/.304/.405 as a team with a .309 wOBA, a .163 in Isolated Power and a wRC+ of 97. Heading into the break last season, the Braves were hitting at a clip of .282/.351/.512 with a .366 wOBA, a .230 in Isolated Power and a 129 wRC+. Last year, Atlanta had the best offense in baseball heading into the break — this year, the Braves have been essentially mediocre at best at the plate so far.
The picture at the plate for the Braves gets even bleaker when you take late-March/early-April out of the picture. Those really were the good ol’ days, y’all — in the first initial portion of the season, the Braves were hitting .268/.338/.434 with a .336 wOBA, .166 in ISO and 116 wRC+. Yeah, those numbers were still down compared to 2023 but offense across the league has been down this season (and you can pick your own theory as to why that’s the case) so it was understandable to see that even a “juggernaut” like Atlanta’s offense wasn’t immune to the drop in offensive production across baseball.
However, what’s been happening for the Braves since May has been less of “Oh, they’re suffering from offense being down across the league” and more “Okay, who are you and what did you do to the real Matt Olson?” Since May, the Braves have been putt-putting about at the plate with a .230/.289/.392 slash line, a .297 wOBA, .162 in Isolated Power and a scarcely-believable wRC+ of 89.
While it would’ve been totally fine to expect some sort of drop-off for this lineup after the aforementioned league-wide drop in offense and also the fact that they spent nearly the entirety of 2023 hitting at a historic rate, this is a different story. This is a collapse! It’s evidenced by the fact that the Braves have won a grand total of one (1) game since May where the other team scored at least four runs — and even then, that game went 11 innings! Basically, the book on the Braves since May has been that if you as an opposing team score four runs in nine innings against Atlanta, then you may as well start thinking about the good ol’ handshake line.
The good news is that if you’re a believer (like I am) of the “back of the baseball card” theory that these guys will eventually return to something close to what they usually do, then the offense might end up being okay at some point. I’d feel good betting on the fact that Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and Michael Harris II (once he gets back from injury) are not going to each have a two-digit wRC+ for the rest of the season. I would lump Orlando Arcia in there but the season he’s having is actually similar to what he did in 2019, which is pretty concerning! Still, as long as those three names from earlier in the paragraph return to form while the other guys in the lineup (like Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Jarred Kelenic and Travis d’Arnaud whenever he plays) can stay at their current level then this offense could eventually start finally making some noise at some point.
Here’s hoping that the offense can eventually find their way because it’s honestly very fun to dream about what this Braves team could look like if the offense can finally get going in a real way. That’s because Atlanta’s pitching staff has essentially been carrying them this season. Thanks to Oakland going to Philadelphia and channeling the spirit of the Bash Brothers for a weekend, the Braves were able to slide into the break with the best collective ERA in baseball. Additionally, Braves hurlers are collectively sporting the best ERA- across MLB (82) and both the second-best FIP- (89) and xFIP- (91) and there’s a real argument that you can have as to whether or not the Braves or Phillies have the best pitching in baseball so far this season.
Chris Sale has not only stayed heathy but he’s thrived and is the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award — which would actually be his first! Reynaldo López is already having a career year on the mound as a starter, which is shocking considering that he hasn’t started games since 2019. Max Fried has basically been in contract-year form. While Spencer Schwellenbach’s numbers aren’t there yet, you can tell by watching him that he’s got the stuff to stick around and be a productive member of the rotation and Charlie Morton has still been a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation guy for the Braves this season.
Meanwhile, the bullpen has been either keeping Atlanta in games where they’re trailing or turning games into six-inning affairs if they’re ahead and set up for their top relievers to come in. Raisel Iglesias has once again been a very reliable closer, Joe Jiménez has been a handful for hitters to deal with this year and guys like Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee have proven perfectly capable of being relied upon whenever their name has been called from the dugout. Additionally, Jesse Chavez is 40 years old with a 42 ERA- (we won’t talk about his FIP-). It’s been a true team effort and especially impressive given that Spencer Strider has been gone since basically the start of the season.
If Atlanta’s pitching staff can keep this level of production up as the season progresses and eventually moves into the playoffs, the Braves are going to be an extremely tough team to deal with due to that facet of their game alone. Pitching is extremely important during the postseason — the Braves don’t win the 2021 World Series without guys like Ian Anderson, Tyler Matzek, Drew Smyly, Will Smith and plenty of others. Of course, that World Series win was a true team effort where everybody on the squad stepped up to contribute but the high level of pitching was truly key for Atlanta in that run. It’s not all that hard to envision this pitching staff pushing the Braves back to the top of the mountain in the Postseason.
However, the offense absolutely has to step up. There’s no question about it. While you can certainly pitch your way to a World Series title, you can definitely slump your way into crashing out of the Postseason in embarrassing fashion. Maybe we'll see the "back of the baseball card” theory come into play with a lot of the guys in this lineup or maybe we'll see Alex Anthopoulos dig into his bag of tricks and pull off another trade deadline masterclass in order to give the lineup a boost.
Either way, this lineup can't keep going on like they have and expect to add a third Commissioner's Trophy to the case across from the Hank Aaron statue at the stadium. This lineup absolutely has to get going and now they've got the second half of the season to try to figure it out before the lights get bright and the grass starts to get a little browner.
<img alt="Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yHtVFCVIDFCjJcLwoyBV-5-wWJ8=/0x0:4149x2766/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73463709/2161074722.0.jpg">
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images
Atlanta's pitching staff looks like it has what it takes to get deep into October. In order for that to actually happen, the offense absolutely must get better. Alright, time to take some basic inventory. We’ve reached the All-Star break and our Atlanta Braves are 53-42, eight-and-a-half games behind in the NL East and four games ahead of the Cardinals for the top spot in the Wild Card race. While Atlanta is currently rank outsiders to win the division with FanGraphs giving them only a 12 percent shot at retaining the NL East title, they are nearly a lock to get into the Postseason as they’re also carrying a 94 percent shot to play some more October baseball.
So while this is a far cry from the halcyon days of last season when Atlanta was busy steamrolling everybody in sight and going into the break with a 60-29 record, things are mostly just fine for the Braves right now. It’s always been about October for this team any way and as long as things continue on the way that they have then the Braves should have a relatively straightforward path to getting back into the Postseason — although they’ll probably have to deal with the Wild Card Round once they get there.
While you’re not going to publicly hear anybody associated with the team saying that they’re fine with this, I don’t think you’re going to see anybody in that clubhouse or front office devastated over the divisional run coming to a close and you might see them even embracing the idea of keeping right on playing into the Postseason instead of taking the Bye that they’ve had for the past couple of seasons with the new format. Winning the division is a definitely a point of professional pride for this club but also, the goal is clear: It’s getting far in the Postseason again instead going one-and-done for potentially the third straight season.
Which is why the way that this team has been operating this season has been frustratingly fascinating. Let’s start with the part that’s made it so frustrating, which is that the Braves have been delivering way worse production at the plate this season when compared to recent years. The Braves as a team have been hitting .241/.304/.405 as a team with a .309 wOBA, a .163 in Isolated Power and a wRC+ of 97. Heading into the break last season, the Braves were hitting at a clip of .282/.351/.512 with a .366 wOBA, a .230 in Isolated Power and a 129 wRC+. Last year, Atlanta had the best offense in baseball heading into the break — this year, the Braves have been essentially mediocre at best at the plate so far.
The picture at the plate for the Braves gets even bleaker when you take late-March/early-April out of the picture. Those really were the good ol’ days, y’all — in the first initial portion of the season, the Braves were hitting .268/.338/.434 with a .336 wOBA, .166 in ISO and 116 wRC+. Yeah, those numbers were still down compared to 2023 but offense across the league has been down this season (and you can pick your own theory as to why that’s the case) so it was understandable to see that even a “juggernaut” like Atlanta’s offense wasn’t immune to the drop in offensive production across baseball.
However, what’s been happening for the Braves since May has been less of “Oh, they’re suffering from offense being down across the league” and more “Okay, who are you and what did you do to the real Matt Olson?” Since May, the Braves have been putt-putting about at the plate with a .230/.289/.392 slash line, a .297 wOBA, .162 in Isolated Power and a scarcely-believable wRC+ of 89.
While it would’ve been totally fine to expect some sort of drop-off for this lineup after the aforementioned league-wide drop in offense and also the fact that they spent nearly the entirety of 2023 hitting at a historic rate, this is a different story. This is a collapse! It’s evidenced by the fact that the Braves have won a grand total of one (1) game since May where the other team scored at least four runs — and even then, that game went 11 innings! Basically, the book on the Braves since May has been that if you as an opposing team score four runs in nine innings against Atlanta, then you may as well start thinking about the good ol’ handshake line.
The good news is that if you’re a believer (like I am) of the “back of the baseball card” theory that these guys will eventually return to something close to what they usually do, then the offense might end up being okay at some point. I’d feel good betting on the fact that Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and Michael Harris II (once he gets back from injury) are not going to each have a two-digit wRC+ for the rest of the season. I would lump Orlando Arcia in there but the season he’s having is actually similar to what he did in 2019, which is pretty concerning! Still, as long as those three names from earlier in the paragraph return to form while the other guys in the lineup (like Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Jarred Kelenic and Travis d’Arnaud whenever he plays) can stay at their current level then this offense could eventually start finally making some noise at some point.
Here’s hoping that the offense can eventually find their way because it’s honestly very fun to dream about what this Braves team could look like if the offense can finally get going in a real way. That’s because Atlanta’s pitching staff has essentially been carrying them this season. Thanks to Oakland going to Philadelphia and channeling the spirit of the Bash Brothers for a weekend, the Braves were able to slide into the break with the best collective ERA in baseball. Additionally, Braves hurlers are collectively sporting the best ERA- across MLB (82) and both the second-best FIP- (89) and xFIP- (91) and there’s a real argument that you can have as to whether or not the Braves or Phillies have the best pitching in baseball so far this season.
Chris Sale has not only stayed heathy but he’s thrived and is the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award — which would actually be his first! Reynaldo López is already having a career year on the mound as a starter, which is shocking considering that he hasn’t started games since 2019. Max Fried has basically been in contract-year form. While Spencer Schwellenbach’s numbers aren’t there yet, you can tell by watching him that he’s got the stuff to stick around and be a productive member of the rotation and Charlie Morton has still been a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation guy for the Braves this season.
Meanwhile, the bullpen has been either keeping Atlanta in games where they’re trailing or turning games into six-inning affairs if they’re ahead and set up for their top relievers to come in. Raisel Iglesias has once again been a very reliable closer, Joe Jiménez has been a handful for hitters to deal with this year and guys like Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee have proven perfectly capable of being relied upon whenever their name has been called from the dugout. Additionally, Jesse Chavez is 40 years old with a 42 ERA- (we won’t talk about his FIP-). It’s been a true team effort and especially impressive given that Spencer Strider has been gone since basically the start of the season.
If Atlanta’s pitching staff can keep this level of production up as the season progresses and eventually moves into the playoffs, the Braves are going to be an extremely tough team to deal with due to that facet of their game alone. Pitching is extremely important during the postseason — the Braves don’t win the 2021 World Series without guys like Ian Anderson, Tyler Matzek, Drew Smyly, Will Smith and plenty of others. Of course, that World Series win was a true team effort where everybody on the squad stepped up to contribute but the high level of pitching was truly key for Atlanta in that run. It’s not all that hard to envision this pitching staff pushing the Braves back to the top of the mountain in the Postseason.
However, the offense absolutely has to step up. There’s no question about it. While you can certainly pitch your way to a World Series title, you can definitely slump your way into crashing out of the Postseason in embarrassing fashion. Maybe we'll see the "back of the baseball card” theory come into play with a lot of the guys in this lineup or maybe we'll see Alex Anthopoulos dig into his bag of tricks and pull off another trade deadline masterclass in order to give the lineup a boost.
Either way, this lineup can't keep going on like they have and expect to add a third Commissioner's Trophy to the case across from the Hank Aaron statue at the stadium. This lineup absolutely has to get going and now they've got the second half of the season to try to figure it out before the lights get bright and the grass starts to get a little browner.
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