<img alt="MLB: MAY 20 Padres at Braves - Game 2" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/blAEHYnF-K6cWWwS_cTHistRK1M=/0x0:6198x4132/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73457355/2153457075.0.jpg">
Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Braves lost three of four to the Padres in Atlanta and will look to knock them down further in the Wild Card standings For the Braves, July has started much like the entirety of May and June: a whole lotta meh. The Braves are 5-5 in July so far, winning a series, losing a series, and splitting a four-game series against the Diamondbacks. Now, they’ll head to San Diego to wrap up the pre-All Star Break portion of their schedule.
At 49-47, it’s been a wild ride for the Padres so far. After a 15-18 start, they went 16-11 in May, and then had a streaky June that featured both winning streaks and losing streaks of four and five games each. They hit a season-best six games over .500 on July 5, with a walkoff win over Arizona, but since then have lost four straight. That little skid has knocked them out of playoff position for the moment, as they trail the Mets in the standings by percentage points.
The Padres have a top 10 offense by wRC+, but are dragged back to ninth in position player fWAR due to some poor defensive play so far. They’re one of the six teams ahead of the Braves in team xwOBA, and are dealing with a decent xwOBA underperformance of their own, though it’s not particularly close to the Braves’ fourth-biggest-in-baseball mark thus far. The pitching’s been okay; they’re outside the top ten in both rotation and bullpen fWAR, but not in particular danger of falling into the bottom half or anything.
The roster in San Diego does have a bit of a stars-and-scrubs feel to it once again. Jurickson Profar has somehow managed to go worst-ish to first-ish as a player in the span of an offseason, which seems really difficult to do. Fernando Tatis Jr. (injured), Ha-Seong Kim, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth have all been good-to-great on the position player side in addition to Profar, but there’s not really much else to talk about beyond them. Manny Machado is mired in his worst season ever (and still has nine years left on his contract after this one), and midseason acquisition Luis Arraez really hasn’t done much than hit singles.
The pitching is fairly similar, in that a trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Matt Waldron have been good-to-great, along with relievers Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon, but everyone else has been some combination of injured, unlucky, and/or ineffective.
The Braves lost three of four to the Padres in Atlanta in May, needing a Chris Sale start to split a doubleheader to avoid getting swept. Though the Braves are always subject to the Dreaded West Coast Road Trip, they actually haven’t lost a series in San Diego since 2018. With the Braves holding a four-game lead over the Padres in the Wild Card standings, this series could be meaningful for both clubs.
Friday, July 12, 9:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Spencer Schwellenbach (7 GS, 37 2⁄3 IP, 121 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 90 xFIP-, xERA somewhat above xFIP)
After a number of starts with third-time-through issues, Schwellenbach put together the best start of his career against the Phillies last time out, posting a 6/0 K/BB ratio across six scoreless innings, despite facing the first two-thirds of the Philadelphia lineup for a third time. The rookie right-hander actually has a sparkling 26/4 K/BB ratio over his last four starts, and has already come a long way since his first few starts in the majors.
Randy Vasquez (12 GS, 58 IP, 120 ERA-, 129 FIP-, 113 xFIP-, one of the most horrific xERAs you’ll see this year)
Vasquez hasn’t really done anything other than give the Padres 12 starts of fifth-starter-quality baseball from late-April onward. He has incredibly bad numbers against lefties, so it’ll be up to the Braves’ left-handed bats to take control. He was the starter for the only Padres loss to the Braves in Atlanta, where he somehow managed to allow just three runs despite a 2/0 K/BB ratio and a homer allowed while completing six innings. He also had one of his nicer starts of the year last time out, posting a 6/1 K/BB ratio in 6 1⁄3 innings against the Diamondbacks. Vasquez has avoided the longball in just three starts this year, so there’s a clear thing the Braves can do that will drive their success against him.
Saturday, July 13, 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Reynaldo Lopez (16 GS, 89 2⁄3 IP, 41 ERA-, 79 FIP-, 95 xFIP-, xERA well above xFIP)
After two dud starts against the Cardinals and Giants, some (including me) began to wonder whether Lopez was hitting the wall, having exceeded his 2023 innings total in the span of 15 starts. Well, he quelled those concerns relatively emphatically by shutting down the Phillies on July 7, putting up a 6/3 K/BB ratio, keeping the ball in the yard, and even navigating the third time through the order, which has killed him so far this year. Lopez had few problems against the Padres earlier this year, with a 4/1 K/BB ratio in 6 1⁄3 innings, which saw him leave with a 5-1 lead... that the bullpen unfortunately blew for a brutal loss.
The batted ball quality and peripherals regression will probably come for Lopez at some point, but even if the Padres hit a bunch of dingers off of him on Saturday, he’ll still end the first “half” of the season with a pretty wacky line.
Matt Waldron (18 GS, 99 2⁄3 IP, 93 ERA-, 93 FIP-, 105 xFIP-, xERA same as ERA)
Waldron set a career high in strikeouts when he dominated the Braves in May (10/2 K/BB ratio, one run charged to him in 5 2⁄3 innings), but if it makes you feel better, that was actually the start of an elite run for him where he put up a combined 29/4 K/BB ratio in four starts, as well as the beginning of a six-start homerless streak. Since those elite four starts, though, he’s been a lot more pedestrian: 77/107/118, with four clunkers in six total outings. Hopefully he doesn’t start another good run with this outing.
Sunday, July 14, 4:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Chris Sale (17 GS, 105 IP, 66 ERA-, 57 FIP-, 62 xFIP-, xERA a little below ERA)
The series finale will feature a battle of staff aces, and be the final start for clearly-best-pitcher-in-the-NL-and-really-maybe-all-of-baseball Chris Sale before the All-Star Break. This outing will likely prevent Sale from appearing in the Midsummer Classic itself, which the Braves probably don’t mind at all.
It’s tough to continue to describe just how good Sale has been. His 3.5 fWAR in 17 starts is ridiculous; the other 12 pitchers with the most fWAR all have at least 18 starts. Among the 148 pitchers with the most innings as a starter this year, he’s 13th in ERA-, second in FIP-, fourth in xFIP-, third in SIERA, and fifth in xERA. He’s had just two starts this season with an ERA- above 100, three with an FIP- above 100, and zero with an xFIP- above 100. He dominated the Padres with seven scoreless frames and a 9/0 K/BB ratio back in May.
Dylan Cease (19 GS, 109 IP, 109 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 81 xFIP-, xERA between ERA and FIP)
A late-offseason surprise acquisition by Padres head honcho A.J. Preller, Cease has been the best arm on the Friars’ staff and is pitching better than ever before, though strand rate problems have plagued his ERA. Though Cease was dominant in both May and June, he had a weird hiccup against the Braves, with arguably his worst start of the year so far coming against them — 5/3 K/BB ratio, two homers allowed, five total runs charged in just four innings of work. (The Braves, though, lost the game, courtesy of the aforementioned bullpen implosion.)
Cease has allowed four homers across two July starts, with the Padres dropping both. After running a low HR/FB and allowing just six longballs through May, he’s allowed nine in seven starts since, despite a better K/BB ratio than previously. Like the other two starters the Braves will face here, Cease has substantial platoon splits this year, so it’s really going to be important for the Braves’ left-handed bats to do some work in this series.
<img alt="MLB: MAY 20 Padres at Braves - Game 2" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/blAEHYnF-K6cWWwS_cTHistRK1M=/0x0:6198x4132/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73457355/2153457075.0.jpg">
Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Braves lost three of four to the Padres in Atlanta and will look to knock them down further in the Wild Card standings For the Braves, July has started much like the entirety of May and June: a whole lotta meh. The Braves are 5-5 in July so far, winning a series, losing a series, and splitting a four-game series against the Diamondbacks. Now, they’ll head to San Diego to wrap up the pre-All Star Break portion of their schedule.
At 49-47, it’s been a wild ride for the Padres so far. After a 15-18 start, they went 16-11 in May, and then had a streaky June that featured both winning streaks and losing streaks of four and five games each. They hit a season-best six games over .500 on July 5, with a walkoff win over Arizona, but since then have lost four straight. That little skid has knocked them out of playoff position for the moment, as they trail the Mets in the standings by percentage points.
The Padres have a top 10 offense by wRC+, but are dragged back to ninth in position player fWAR due to some poor defensive play so far. They’re one of the six teams ahead of the Braves in team xwOBA, and are dealing with a decent xwOBA underperformance of their own, though it’s not particularly close to the Braves’ fourth-biggest-in-baseball mark thus far. The pitching’s been okay; they’re outside the top ten in both rotation and bullpen fWAR, but not in particular danger of falling into the bottom half or anything.
The roster in San Diego does have a bit of a stars-and-scrubs feel to it once again. Jurickson Profar has somehow managed to go worst-ish to first-ish as a player in the span of an offseason, which seems really difficult to do. Fernando Tatis Jr. (injured), Ha-Seong Kim, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth have all been good-to-great on the position player side in addition to Profar, but there’s not really much else to talk about beyond them. Manny Machado is mired in his worst season ever (and still has nine years left on his contract after this one), and midseason acquisition Luis Arraez really hasn’t done much than hit singles.
The pitching is fairly similar, in that a trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Matt Waldron have been good-to-great, along with relievers Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon, but everyone else has been some combination of injured, unlucky, and/or ineffective.
The Braves lost three of four to the Padres in Atlanta in May, needing a Chris Sale start to split a doubleheader to avoid getting swept. Though the Braves are always subject to the Dreaded West Coast Road Trip, they actually haven’t lost a series in San Diego since 2018. With the Braves holding a four-game lead over the Padres in the Wild Card standings, this series could be meaningful for both clubs.
Friday, July 12, 9:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Spencer Schwellenbach (7 GS, 37 2⁄3 IP, 121 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 90 xFIP-, xERA somewhat above xFIP)
After a number of starts with third-time-through issues, Schwellenbach put together the best start of his career against the Phillies last time out, posting a 6/0 K/BB ratio across six scoreless innings, despite facing the first two-thirds of the Philadelphia lineup for a third time. The rookie right-hander actually has a sparkling 26/4 K/BB ratio over his last four starts, and has already come a long way since his first few starts in the majors.
Randy Vasquez (12 GS, 58 IP, 120 ERA-, 129 FIP-, 113 xFIP-, one of the most horrific xERAs you’ll see this year)
Vasquez hasn’t really done anything other than give the Padres 12 starts of fifth-starter-quality baseball from late-April onward. He has incredibly bad numbers against lefties, so it’ll be up to the Braves’ left-handed bats to take control. He was the starter for the only Padres loss to the Braves in Atlanta, where he somehow managed to allow just three runs despite a 2/0 K/BB ratio and a homer allowed while completing six innings. He also had one of his nicer starts of the year last time out, posting a 6/1 K/BB ratio in 6 1⁄3 innings against the Diamondbacks. Vasquez has avoided the longball in just three starts this year, so there’s a clear thing the Braves can do that will drive their success against him.
Saturday, July 13, 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Reynaldo Lopez (16 GS, 89 2⁄3 IP, 41 ERA-, 79 FIP-, 95 xFIP-, xERA well above xFIP)
After two dud starts against the Cardinals and Giants, some (including me) began to wonder whether Lopez was hitting the wall, having exceeded his 2023 innings total in the span of 15 starts. Well, he quelled those concerns relatively emphatically by shutting down the Phillies on July 7, putting up a 6/3 K/BB ratio, keeping the ball in the yard, and even navigating the third time through the order, which has killed him so far this year. Lopez had few problems against the Padres earlier this year, with a 4/1 K/BB ratio in 6 1⁄3 innings, which saw him leave with a 5-1 lead... that the bullpen unfortunately blew for a brutal loss.
The batted ball quality and peripherals regression will probably come for Lopez at some point, but even if the Padres hit a bunch of dingers off of him on Saturday, he’ll still end the first “half” of the season with a pretty wacky line.
Matt Waldron (18 GS, 99 2⁄3 IP, 93 ERA-, 93 FIP-, 105 xFIP-, xERA same as ERA)
Waldron set a career high in strikeouts when he dominated the Braves in May (10/2 K/BB ratio, one run charged to him in 5 2⁄3 innings), but if it makes you feel better, that was actually the start of an elite run for him where he put up a combined 29/4 K/BB ratio in four starts, as well as the beginning of a six-start homerless streak. Since those elite four starts, though, he’s been a lot more pedestrian: 77/107/118, with four clunkers in six total outings. Hopefully he doesn’t start another good run with this outing.
Sunday, July 14, 4:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Chris Sale (17 GS, 105 IP, 66 ERA-, 57 FIP-, 62 xFIP-, xERA a little below ERA)
The series finale will feature a battle of staff aces, and be the final start for clearly-best-pitcher-in-the-NL-and-really-maybe-all-of-baseball Chris Sale before the All-Star Break. This outing will likely prevent Sale from appearing in the Midsummer Classic itself, which the Braves probably don’t mind at all.
It’s tough to continue to describe just how good Sale has been. His 3.5 fWAR in 17 starts is ridiculous; the other 12 pitchers with the most fWAR all have at least 18 starts. Among the 148 pitchers with the most innings as a starter this year, he’s 13th in ERA-, second in FIP-, fourth in xFIP-, third in SIERA, and fifth in xERA. He’s had just two starts this season with an ERA- above 100, three with an FIP- above 100, and zero with an xFIP- above 100. He dominated the Padres with seven scoreless frames and a 9/0 K/BB ratio back in May.
Dylan Cease (19 GS, 109 IP, 109 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 81 xFIP-, xERA between ERA and FIP)
A late-offseason surprise acquisition by Padres head honcho A.J. Preller, Cease has been the best arm on the Friars’ staff and is pitching better than ever before, though strand rate problems have plagued his ERA. Though Cease was dominant in both May and June, he had a weird hiccup against the Braves, with arguably his worst start of the year so far coming against them — 5/3 K/BB ratio, two homers allowed, five total runs charged in just four innings of work. (The Braves, though, lost the game, courtesy of the aforementioned bullpen implosion.)
Cease has allowed four homers across two July starts, with the Padres dropping both. After running a low HR/FB and allowing just six longballs through May, he’s allowed nine in seven starts since, despite a better K/BB ratio than previously. Like the other two starters the Braves will face here, Cease has substantial platoon splits this year, so it’s really going to be important for the Braves’ left-handed bats to do some work in this series.
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