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Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Recently named to the Futures Game roster, Baldwin has quickly asserted his place among the system’s best July 4th week has come and gone, and it was an exciting group of games for the Gwinnett Stripers and the rest of the Atlanta Braves system. Drake Baldwin and Nacho Alvarez have stayed hot at the plate, and while some concerns are being exposed they have answered most questions asked of them and quickly adjusted to Triple-A pitching. There have also been some important rehab outings going on, with AJ Smith-Shawver, Ian Anderson, and JR Ritchie all continuing in their returns from their various injuries.
Gwinnett Stripers
Record: 40-47, 5-7 2nd half, 8th in IL West (5 GB)
It was a big week for the Stripers overall, lead by a 21 run and an 11 run game. Two players critical to that were Drake Baldwin and Nacho Alvarez, who have continued to excel after their promotions to Triple-A. Overall Nacho Alvarez has had the better numbers, with an OPS still sitting over 1.000 and he added an opposite field home run to give him five now in 21 games at Triple-A. Overall though his numbers are starting to show a little bit of the regression we would expect as his overall batted ball quality is mediocre, and last week he had an .878 OPS with more walks and strikeouts. This is closer to in-line with what we should be expecting from him though there is still a lot of batted ball luck built in there, and a lot of his contact has been straight in the air or straight into the ground. Alvarez hasn’t hit the ball hard pull side, with an average exit velocity of just 81.7 mph on pull side batted balls, and that really feels like the next step for him. The zone and pitch recognition have translated so far, as he has a 17.9% whiff rate and a chase rate in Triple-A’s 88th percentile, while being the 11th-youngest position player to play in the league.
Drake Baldwin on the other hand has been every bit as good as his numbers indicate, with both absurd batted ball quality and contact rates in the zone. Baldwin is one of the best hitters in Triple-A already, and is showing signs of improvement against left handed pitchers this season. His numbers overall are actually better against lefties, though I would advise caution with the small sample here, and really it’s come down to his improved patience on breaking balls on the edge of the plate. That was a major concern for Baldwin last season, and he has made major strides though he has seen a much more steady diet of breaking balls in the past couple of weeks. His chase rate is around league average, which with all of his other factors included is more than fine. Baldwin looks like he has a chance to be a very good major league catcher, and while I expect major league teams to bring his name up consistently in trade talks he is probably the one player in the system you can look at an reasonably project to an impact big league role. Baldwin had two more home runs last week - one an opposite field blast over 440 feet, and at this point I would give him the nod over Alvarez as the system’s top position player. He should be a clear top 100 guy nationally now, as a guy with his offensive ceiling, contact skill, and defense behind the plate is something any organization would be eager to have among their crop.
The Stripers will have AJ Smith-Shawver joining them in the rotation for a rehab start this week, a welcome jolt of talent for a rotation that has really been struggling to fill innings. Dylan Dodd has looked a bit more comfortable and struck out five batters over four innings last week, but it just doesn’t seem like he has the go-to secondary offering to really project him well as a starter, though all of his stuff should play up in the bullpen. In that bullpen is where the talent has started to get interesting, with Daysbel Hernandez on an incredible run. Hernandez has pitched nine straight scoreless outings between Gwinnett and Atlanta, with 12 strikeouts to only one walk in that time. He averaged 98.6 mph on his fastball in his last outing. Hayden Harris bounced back in the bullpen and recorded five strikeouts in 1 2⁄3 innings last week, and even in Triple-A his fastball has been dominant. He has and absurd 50% whiff rate on his fastball so far across his three outings, by far the best number among Gwinnett relievers (Ray Kerr is second at 34.7%), and 3rd-best in Triple-A this season among pitchers with 50+ fastballs thrown. The two above him have both had some major league success this season with Jared Koenig (53.4% whiff, 1.66 ERA, 3.40 FIP) and Jorge Alcala (51.3% whiff, 1.67 ERA, 2.86 FIP) showing that they could be late-blooming but effective relievers.
Series Preview
Gwinnett will be at home to face off against Max Meyer and the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, and this Tuesday’s matchup could be a big one. AJ Smith-Shawver is scheduled to make his rehab start on Tuesday with Meyer in line to pitch, giving us a top 100 pitching matchup in the opener of the series. Meyer has struggled this year for Jacksonville but is coming off of arguably his best start with six strikeouts over 4 2⁄3 innings.
On the offensive side of things Jacksonville’s best prospect is Marlins #8 Victor Mesa Jr., who has hit 13 home runs this year and sits with a wRC+ of 99. The top home run hitter on the roster though is Griffin Conine, who has 16 home runs and an OPS of .872. Javier Sanoja has also been an interesting prospect, posting absurd contact rates with 30 walks to 13 strikeouts in Triple-A this season. Sanoja doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard and may not have the impact to be a big league outfielder, but he is ranked #20 by Baseball America and has had quite the start to his Triple-A career.
Mississippi Braves
Record: 36-44, 5-7 2nd half, t-3rd in SL South (3 GB)
It was an awful week for the Mississippi Braves overall, with them struggling to really put together any spotlight performances on either side of the ball. Tyler Tolve had altogether the best week, highly driven by his home run and double as part of a three-hit showing on Wednesday. Tolve has quite suddenly turned in a stretch of play where he is making contact at a high rate, with a strikeout rate of 16.7% over his past 12 games. He has had a couple of multi-strikeout games, but overall has been consistently hitting the ball and hitting the ball hard. Tolve is one of those players who really knows his game and does well to lift fly balls to all fields to try to chase power output, and while this does leave him vulnerable to good secondaries he has managed to hit 14 home runs in 115 Double-A games across two levels. He is probably a Quad-A type player who will never get on base enough to be more than a third catcher, but the power output is always going to be interesting. On the other side of the coin Keshawn Ogans has been a steadily productive contact-first player, in a similar vein of a player who probably won’t be much impact outside of being a good Triple-A player. I like Ogans’s glove at all positions and he has enough power to be a solid utility player, but right now he expands the zone too often to make the most of his hitting skill and it limits his ceiling for getting on base.
Drue Hackenberg’s most recent start got sandwiched into last Tuesday’s weekly report because of the weird scheduling last week, so all we had going among real prospects was the start from Lucas Braun. Braun finally issued a couple of walks to break a long walkless streak, and it was an overall solid game with no runs allowed over six innings. Braun didn’t miss as many bats as he has in prior starts with 12 swing-and-misses and five strikeouts, and although I don’t have exact numbers for pitch mix it seems the Braves may be backing him off of his slider usage a bit. We’ve seen this plenty with guys when they get to Double-A this season with the Braves forcing players to focus on some of their weaker pitches — in Braun’s case it would be his curveball and changeup — and I wouldn’t be surprised if they trend more in that direction for a bit and Braun’s numbers dip. Still it wasn’t a start to scoff at by any means and he is still well on pace to be in Atlanta sometime next season.
Series Preview
Mississippi welcomes the Birmingham Barons to town this week, and the White Sox affiliate features one of baseball’s hottest pitching prospects. On Baseball America’s recent top 100 update Noah Schultz came in at 8th overall, and the 20 year old has dominated at Double-A so far. Schultz has a 30.6% strikeout rate while walking only 3.7% of batters, adding altogether to give him a 2.67 FIP. He should be in line to start Saturday’s game. The Barons pitching staff also includes recently-promoted Riley Gowens, the former ninth round pick for the Braves that was traded this past winter. In his Barons debut last week Gowens threw five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.
The top hitting prospect on the roster is Jacob Gonzalez, the #15 overall pick from last year’s draft. Gonzalez has had a solid season with a 14% strikeout rate, but has not hit for much power with Birmingham and has overall a 102 wRC+. White Sox #20 prospect Wilfred Veras has had a solid year in this lineup as well with a 107 wRC+.
Rome Emperors
Record: 41-38, 5-10 2nd half, 6th in SAL South (5.5 GB)
Rome has been getting torched lately, and after getting swept by the Hot Rods are sitting in last place in the South Atlantic League South division. Not that it matters as they already punched their ticket to the postseason, but the offense has hit a wall and struggled to produce at all in the second half so far. Sabin Ceballos is still making a lot of contact and only struck out twice last week, but after a couple of weeks where it seemed like he was starting to hit for some power that didn’t come out much last week. Ceballos has been showing flashes of pull side pop, but weeks like this have been dotted in between where all of his hits are singles and his overall production and impact suffers tremendously. The entire team, outside of Adam Zebrowski who hit another home run, really isn’t hitting for much power now that EJ Exposito has backed off of his earlier success. Expo did have a decent week by the standards of the rest of the team as his four walks boosted his OBP, but he only went 2-15 and hasn’t hit a home run since June 15th. The worst of the group however is Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. who had a .139 OPS last week and struck out eight times. Kilpatrick had a week there were he really came alive and gave some hope that he could go on a real hot streak for the Emperors, but once again fell into a slump and has been mired in an extended slump since mid May. Over his past 200 plate appearances Kilpatrick has a .588 OPS and a 28.5% strikeout rate. He may be somewhat a victim of the suppressed Rome home environment as well, as he has a .549 OPS with a .061 isolated power at home and a .792 OPS with a .178 isolated power on the road.
If you’ve been following along for a few years you might have taken notice of Elison Joseph, the relief pitcher who sits in the upper 90’s and has always posted elite strikeout and whiff rates, while also showing bottom of the scale command. Joseph has been one of the lowkey breakout players of the season, cutting his walk rates down to less than 10%, and as a result he has flourished and has a 2.48 ERA in Rome. Now he will take the next step and head to Mississippi, where he has a chance to separate himself as a real top-30 type relief arm if he can still miss bats and throw strikes there.
Rome featured two very important pitchers this week in rotation, the first of which being AJ Smith-Shawver. Smith-Shawver was dominant in the first inning of his rehab start on Wednesday, as he should be, and while he did allow a run his stuff looked sharp and he ran his fastball into the upper-90’s. His next start will come in Gwinnett, and I am curious to see if they place him straight back into the Atlanta rotation once he is stretched out. Given the frequency with which they’ve tried to get guys extra days of rest Smith-Shawver will certainly get more looks in Atlanta, but with the emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach as a real, reliable option it may not be as necessary to force him in there but rather give him more the role Bryce Elder has played.
Blake Burkhalter has come out and impressed me tremendously in his first few starts in Rome, and while he got off to a slow start in his last outing he got whiffs on 12 of the last 19 swings against him. His slider was dominant despite him really struggling to command it very well, and that and his cutter were both missing bats at a high rate. His command was really not particularly good despite the zero walks in this game, but he managed to make it work and his stuff was so dominant I wonder if they’ll push him to Mississippi against more advanced hitters soon. The one pitch I didn’t see much of was his changeup, which was a disappointment given how much I would like to get a better feel for how the pitch grades, but the few he did throw weren’t very well placed and it seemed he was struggling with all of his pitches to really locate them and they may have backed off of its usage as a result.
Series preview
The Emperors face the Greenville Drive of the Boston Red Sox system this week, a team that has lost a lot of talent over the past couple of months. Miguel Bleis, the preseason #4 for Boston by Baseball America, was promoted in June to take a spot but has struggled immensely and so far has a 24 wRC+ in 16 High-A games. The best player of late has been outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia, who has been an absolute terror to South Atlantic League pitchers. Garcia has 11 home runs in 28 games since being promoted, and while the Emperors held him to only one in five games in their last meeting he still had a .981 OPS against Rome. They will also have to contend with Bryan Gonzalez, who leads the team with 16 home runs and a 133 wRC+ this season.
Augusta GreenJackets
Record: 34-46, 6-8 2nd Half, 5th in CAR South (3.5 GB)
The GreenJackets had quite a few eyes on them with Ian Anderson in town this past week, and Anderson answered by impressing in his second rehab outing in full season ball. While a rain shower limited him to 47 pitches, not far short of where his limit was anyways, he made the most of those 47 and struck out five batters while forcing 13 swing-and-misses. He was helped on offense by Noah Williams, who hit a grand slam for his first Single-A home run since being promoted in June. Williams was a late round draft pick out of high school in 2022, and while he has been slow developing there are some physical tools and bat speed to dream on if he can hit well enough in full season.
Speaking of physical tools, Isaiah Drake has unfortunately regressed statistically from his earlier hot streak. I didn’t expect him to suddenly have no problems, and he has visibly been better than earlier in the year when he was just overmatched at the plate, but he is once again on a bit of an extended drought. Drake went 1-12 with five strikeouts at the plate last week, and at this point I think he belongs in full season ball but it’s going to still be ugly for awhile. Or he could get hot again and prove me wrong and I hope he does. The outfield is full of enigmatic talent, with Robert Gonzalez on a hot streak that has put aside the deep, deep slump he was on for most of the year. Gonzalez has struggled for playing time in a crowded outfield, and it’s unfortunate because none of these guys have separated themselves enough to deserve a trip to Rome to clear things out a bit. Gonzalez is not even close to that point either, but he has cut down on his chase rates significantly and is hitting for a good bit of power right now. He had four walks in three games last week, while also hitting an opposite field double.
The pitching staff in Augusta has thinned out a bit, with Adam Maier missing a few starts and Garrett Baumann missing his last start. Baumann may just be a guy they’re trying to give some extra rest, but Adam Shoemaker made the start in his place on Friday and there hasn’t been any announcement on Baumann’s status yet. Jeremy Reyes also left early in his outing on Tuesday, though it sounds like that was purely precautionary and he isn’t expected to be out long if he even misses this next start. That leaves Didier Fuentes from that previously dominant rotation, but Fuentes has been making up for the absence of everyone. Fuentes struck out nine batters and walked none over six scoreless innings, and he is on one of the most impressive runs I’ve seen any pitcher go on. Right now he is just fastball-slider, but it hasn’t really mattered as Single-A hitters can’t do anything with either pitch. Over his past seven starts he has a 2.20 ERA, a 36.4% strikeout rate, and a 2.30 FIP.
Series Preview
Augusta will be going on the road to play the Fayetteville Woodpeckers, and hopefully this is a chance for the GreenJackets to get some wins and maybe hit a bit. The Woodpeckers are a pretty weak team, featuring just three of Baseball America’s top 30 Astros prospects, and none of those three have been particularly good. #9 prospect Alonzo Tredwell has struggled with walks, and as a result has a 4.24 FIP on the season. The two top 30 hitters - Cesar Hernandez and Waner Luciano - have a 90 and 60 wRC+, respectively. Their best hitter has been Nehomar Ochoa Jr., who has a team-leading seven home runs in 70 games and a 119 wRC+.
FCL Braves
Record: 16-30, 6th in FCL South (11 GB)
DSL Braves
Record: 7-15, 8th in DSL West (9 GB)
Rookie level baseball, always an adventure, has been more interesting for the Braves than it has in a very long time. While Luis Guanipa has struggled to stay on the field he has been largely good in limited playing time, but unfortunately has hit a bit of a rough patch in the past couple of weeks. The good thing is that Guanipa is still making contact at a high rate so it seems it could even out, but his line drive rate right now is low. He did, however, hit a home run on Monday, his second of the season, and even with his struggles I wouldn’t be surprised if Augusta comes calling soon. Of course, the same contention exists as it does for the current GreenJackets with all of the players on that roster that the Braves want to get playing time, and the Braves may decide to just let Guanipa keep getting at bats in those unofficial games in Northport. Selfishly though, I would like them to promote Guanipa so we can see him play.
The best player on this roster right now isn’t Guanipa, it’s John Gil, and his four hit performance last week was the latest in a run of great play for Gil. Gil now has a 113 wRC+ in his 45 games in the complex league this season, to go along with 21 stolen bases. Last week he had five stolen bases, went 8-15 at the plate, and didn’t strike out once. Over his past 16 games Gil has a 176 wRC+, a 15.9% walk rate, and an absurd 6.3% strikeout rate. Him I’m more confident in right now as I believe he will end up in Augusta either after or right before the end of the FCL season. He may very well be forcing his way up now, given how good he has been and the lack of any real competition in that Augusta infield.
JR Ritchie made another rehab start last week and it was a rough one as he allowed five runs and three walks over 2 1⁄3 innings. From what we’ve seen Ritchie is dominant down there and that is no surprise, and the biggest thing right now is that he is healthy and throwing. A handful of poor command games will happen especially in a Tommy John recovery, and I’m hopeful we can get some reports on how his stuff looks soon.
I’ve been awaiting the returns of Juans Espinal and Mateo for a few weeks now in the DSL, and both came back to play last week with mixed results. Juan Mateo only played one game and went 1-3, then was in the lineup on Monday but that game was cut short by rain and suspended. Mateo is the better prospect of the two by far, but Espinal is an interesting player in his own right. Espinal had a home run last week and possesses intriguing raw power, but those strikeout rates are ghastly. Espinal went 3-11 last week and on those other eight occasions he struck out. Injury interruptions, especially for guys with long, complicated swings like Espinal, can lead to increased strikeout rates temporarily but a 45% strikeout rate in the DSL is a major concern regardless of that caveat. It’s also important to note that we really have limited information on these guys, so there could be swing and approach adjustments making temporary issues that we just don’t have the information to make these evaluations within a complete context.
Weekly News:
Drake Baldwin and Nacho Alvarez lead our stock watch for July
Drake Baldwin named to Futures Game roster
Matt Powers with Day Two and Three draft targets
Ryan Waldschmidt mocked to Braves by Baseball America
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Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Recently named to the Futures Game roster, Baldwin has quickly asserted his place among the system’s best July 4th week has come and gone, and it was an exciting group of games for the Gwinnett Stripers and the rest of the Atlanta Braves system. Drake Baldwin and Nacho Alvarez have stayed hot at the plate, and while some concerns are being exposed they have answered most questions asked of them and quickly adjusted to Triple-A pitching. There have also been some important rehab outings going on, with AJ Smith-Shawver, Ian Anderson, and JR Ritchie all continuing in their returns from their various injuries.
Gwinnett Stripers
Record: 40-47, 5-7 2nd half, 8th in IL West (5 GB)
It was a big week for the Stripers overall, lead by a 21 run and an 11 run game. Two players critical to that were Drake Baldwin and Nacho Alvarez, who have continued to excel after their promotions to Triple-A. Overall Nacho Alvarez has had the better numbers, with an OPS still sitting over 1.000 and he added an opposite field home run to give him five now in 21 games at Triple-A. Overall though his numbers are starting to show a little bit of the regression we would expect as his overall batted ball quality is mediocre, and last week he had an .878 OPS with more walks and strikeouts. This is closer to in-line with what we should be expecting from him though there is still a lot of batted ball luck built in there, and a lot of his contact has been straight in the air or straight into the ground. Alvarez hasn’t hit the ball hard pull side, with an average exit velocity of just 81.7 mph on pull side batted balls, and that really feels like the next step for him. The zone and pitch recognition have translated so far, as he has a 17.9% whiff rate and a chase rate in Triple-A’s 88th percentile, while being the 11th-youngest position player to play in the league.
Drake Baldwin on the other hand has been every bit as good as his numbers indicate, with both absurd batted ball quality and contact rates in the zone. Baldwin is one of the best hitters in Triple-A already, and is showing signs of improvement against left handed pitchers this season. His numbers overall are actually better against lefties, though I would advise caution with the small sample here, and really it’s come down to his improved patience on breaking balls on the edge of the plate. That was a major concern for Baldwin last season, and he has made major strides though he has seen a much more steady diet of breaking balls in the past couple of weeks. His chase rate is around league average, which with all of his other factors included is more than fine. Baldwin looks like he has a chance to be a very good major league catcher, and while I expect major league teams to bring his name up consistently in trade talks he is probably the one player in the system you can look at an reasonably project to an impact big league role. Baldwin had two more home runs last week - one an opposite field blast over 440 feet, and at this point I would give him the nod over Alvarez as the system’s top position player. He should be a clear top 100 guy nationally now, as a guy with his offensive ceiling, contact skill, and defense behind the plate is something any organization would be eager to have among their crop.
The Stripers will have AJ Smith-Shawver joining them in the rotation for a rehab start this week, a welcome jolt of talent for a rotation that has really been struggling to fill innings. Dylan Dodd has looked a bit more comfortable and struck out five batters over four innings last week, but it just doesn’t seem like he has the go-to secondary offering to really project him well as a starter, though all of his stuff should play up in the bullpen. In that bullpen is where the talent has started to get interesting, with Daysbel Hernandez on an incredible run. Hernandez has pitched nine straight scoreless outings between Gwinnett and Atlanta, with 12 strikeouts to only one walk in that time. He averaged 98.6 mph on his fastball in his last outing. Hayden Harris bounced back in the bullpen and recorded five strikeouts in 1 2⁄3 innings last week, and even in Triple-A his fastball has been dominant. He has and absurd 50% whiff rate on his fastball so far across his three outings, by far the best number among Gwinnett relievers (Ray Kerr is second at 34.7%), and 3rd-best in Triple-A this season among pitchers with 50+ fastballs thrown. The two above him have both had some major league success this season with Jared Koenig (53.4% whiff, 1.66 ERA, 3.40 FIP) and Jorge Alcala (51.3% whiff, 1.67 ERA, 2.86 FIP) showing that they could be late-blooming but effective relievers.
Series Preview
Gwinnett will be at home to face off against Max Meyer and the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, and this Tuesday’s matchup could be a big one. AJ Smith-Shawver is scheduled to make his rehab start on Tuesday with Meyer in line to pitch, giving us a top 100 pitching matchup in the opener of the series. Meyer has struggled this year for Jacksonville but is coming off of arguably his best start with six strikeouts over 4 2⁄3 innings.
On the offensive side of things Jacksonville’s best prospect is Marlins #8 Victor Mesa Jr., who has hit 13 home runs this year and sits with a wRC+ of 99. The top home run hitter on the roster though is Griffin Conine, who has 16 home runs and an OPS of .872. Javier Sanoja has also been an interesting prospect, posting absurd contact rates with 30 walks to 13 strikeouts in Triple-A this season. Sanoja doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard and may not have the impact to be a big league outfielder, but he is ranked #20 by Baseball America and has had quite the start to his Triple-A career.
Mississippi Braves
Record: 36-44, 5-7 2nd half, t-3rd in SL South (3 GB)
It was an awful week for the Mississippi Braves overall, with them struggling to really put together any spotlight performances on either side of the ball. Tyler Tolve had altogether the best week, highly driven by his home run and double as part of a three-hit showing on Wednesday. Tolve has quite suddenly turned in a stretch of play where he is making contact at a high rate, with a strikeout rate of 16.7% over his past 12 games. He has had a couple of multi-strikeout games, but overall has been consistently hitting the ball and hitting the ball hard. Tolve is one of those players who really knows his game and does well to lift fly balls to all fields to try to chase power output, and while this does leave him vulnerable to good secondaries he has managed to hit 14 home runs in 115 Double-A games across two levels. He is probably a Quad-A type player who will never get on base enough to be more than a third catcher, but the power output is always going to be interesting. On the other side of the coin Keshawn Ogans has been a steadily productive contact-first player, in a similar vein of a player who probably won’t be much impact outside of being a good Triple-A player. I like Ogans’s glove at all positions and he has enough power to be a solid utility player, but right now he expands the zone too often to make the most of his hitting skill and it limits his ceiling for getting on base.
Drue Hackenberg’s most recent start got sandwiched into last Tuesday’s weekly report because of the weird scheduling last week, so all we had going among real prospects was the start from Lucas Braun. Braun finally issued a couple of walks to break a long walkless streak, and it was an overall solid game with no runs allowed over six innings. Braun didn’t miss as many bats as he has in prior starts with 12 swing-and-misses and five strikeouts, and although I don’t have exact numbers for pitch mix it seems the Braves may be backing him off of his slider usage a bit. We’ve seen this plenty with guys when they get to Double-A this season with the Braves forcing players to focus on some of their weaker pitches — in Braun’s case it would be his curveball and changeup — and I wouldn’t be surprised if they trend more in that direction for a bit and Braun’s numbers dip. Still it wasn’t a start to scoff at by any means and he is still well on pace to be in Atlanta sometime next season.
Series Preview
Mississippi welcomes the Birmingham Barons to town this week, and the White Sox affiliate features one of baseball’s hottest pitching prospects. On Baseball America’s recent top 100 update Noah Schultz came in at 8th overall, and the 20 year old has dominated at Double-A so far. Schultz has a 30.6% strikeout rate while walking only 3.7% of batters, adding altogether to give him a 2.67 FIP. He should be in line to start Saturday’s game. The Barons pitching staff also includes recently-promoted Riley Gowens, the former ninth round pick for the Braves that was traded this past winter. In his Barons debut last week Gowens threw five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.
The top hitting prospect on the roster is Jacob Gonzalez, the #15 overall pick from last year’s draft. Gonzalez has had a solid season with a 14% strikeout rate, but has not hit for much power with Birmingham and has overall a 102 wRC+. White Sox #20 prospect Wilfred Veras has had a solid year in this lineup as well with a 107 wRC+.
Rome Emperors
Record: 41-38, 5-10 2nd half, 6th in SAL South (5.5 GB)
Rome has been getting torched lately, and after getting swept by the Hot Rods are sitting in last place in the South Atlantic League South division. Not that it matters as they already punched their ticket to the postseason, but the offense has hit a wall and struggled to produce at all in the second half so far. Sabin Ceballos is still making a lot of contact and only struck out twice last week, but after a couple of weeks where it seemed like he was starting to hit for some power that didn’t come out much last week. Ceballos has been showing flashes of pull side pop, but weeks like this have been dotted in between where all of his hits are singles and his overall production and impact suffers tremendously. The entire team, outside of Adam Zebrowski who hit another home run, really isn’t hitting for much power now that EJ Exposito has backed off of his earlier success. Expo did have a decent week by the standards of the rest of the team as his four walks boosted his OBP, but he only went 2-15 and hasn’t hit a home run since June 15th. The worst of the group however is Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. who had a .139 OPS last week and struck out eight times. Kilpatrick had a week there were he really came alive and gave some hope that he could go on a real hot streak for the Emperors, but once again fell into a slump and has been mired in an extended slump since mid May. Over his past 200 plate appearances Kilpatrick has a .588 OPS and a 28.5% strikeout rate. He may be somewhat a victim of the suppressed Rome home environment as well, as he has a .549 OPS with a .061 isolated power at home and a .792 OPS with a .178 isolated power on the road.
If you’ve been following along for a few years you might have taken notice of Elison Joseph, the relief pitcher who sits in the upper 90’s and has always posted elite strikeout and whiff rates, while also showing bottom of the scale command. Joseph has been one of the lowkey breakout players of the season, cutting his walk rates down to less than 10%, and as a result he has flourished and has a 2.48 ERA in Rome. Now he will take the next step and head to Mississippi, where he has a chance to separate himself as a real top-30 type relief arm if he can still miss bats and throw strikes there.
Rome featured two very important pitchers this week in rotation, the first of which being AJ Smith-Shawver. Smith-Shawver was dominant in the first inning of his rehab start on Wednesday, as he should be, and while he did allow a run his stuff looked sharp and he ran his fastball into the upper-90’s. His next start will come in Gwinnett, and I am curious to see if they place him straight back into the Atlanta rotation once he is stretched out. Given the frequency with which they’ve tried to get guys extra days of rest Smith-Shawver will certainly get more looks in Atlanta, but with the emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach as a real, reliable option it may not be as necessary to force him in there but rather give him more the role Bryce Elder has played.
Blake Burkhalter has come out and impressed me tremendously in his first few starts in Rome, and while he got off to a slow start in his last outing he got whiffs on 12 of the last 19 swings against him. His slider was dominant despite him really struggling to command it very well, and that and his cutter were both missing bats at a high rate. His command was really not particularly good despite the zero walks in this game, but he managed to make it work and his stuff was so dominant I wonder if they’ll push him to Mississippi against more advanced hitters soon. The one pitch I didn’t see much of was his changeup, which was a disappointment given how much I would like to get a better feel for how the pitch grades, but the few he did throw weren’t very well placed and it seemed he was struggling with all of his pitches to really locate them and they may have backed off of its usage as a result.
Series preview
The Emperors face the Greenville Drive of the Boston Red Sox system this week, a team that has lost a lot of talent over the past couple of months. Miguel Bleis, the preseason #4 for Boston by Baseball America, was promoted in June to take a spot but has struggled immensely and so far has a 24 wRC+ in 16 High-A games. The best player of late has been outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia, who has been an absolute terror to South Atlantic League pitchers. Garcia has 11 home runs in 28 games since being promoted, and while the Emperors held him to only one in five games in their last meeting he still had a .981 OPS against Rome. They will also have to contend with Bryan Gonzalez, who leads the team with 16 home runs and a 133 wRC+ this season.
Augusta GreenJackets
Record: 34-46, 6-8 2nd Half, 5th in CAR South (3.5 GB)
The GreenJackets had quite a few eyes on them with Ian Anderson in town this past week, and Anderson answered by impressing in his second rehab outing in full season ball. While a rain shower limited him to 47 pitches, not far short of where his limit was anyways, he made the most of those 47 and struck out five batters while forcing 13 swing-and-misses. He was helped on offense by Noah Williams, who hit a grand slam for his first Single-A home run since being promoted in June. Williams was a late round draft pick out of high school in 2022, and while he has been slow developing there are some physical tools and bat speed to dream on if he can hit well enough in full season.
Speaking of physical tools, Isaiah Drake has unfortunately regressed statistically from his earlier hot streak. I didn’t expect him to suddenly have no problems, and he has visibly been better than earlier in the year when he was just overmatched at the plate, but he is once again on a bit of an extended drought. Drake went 1-12 with five strikeouts at the plate last week, and at this point I think he belongs in full season ball but it’s going to still be ugly for awhile. Or he could get hot again and prove me wrong and I hope he does. The outfield is full of enigmatic talent, with Robert Gonzalez on a hot streak that has put aside the deep, deep slump he was on for most of the year. Gonzalez has struggled for playing time in a crowded outfield, and it’s unfortunate because none of these guys have separated themselves enough to deserve a trip to Rome to clear things out a bit. Gonzalez is not even close to that point either, but he has cut down on his chase rates significantly and is hitting for a good bit of power right now. He had four walks in three games last week, while also hitting an opposite field double.
The pitching staff in Augusta has thinned out a bit, with Adam Maier missing a few starts and Garrett Baumann missing his last start. Baumann may just be a guy they’re trying to give some extra rest, but Adam Shoemaker made the start in his place on Friday and there hasn’t been any announcement on Baumann’s status yet. Jeremy Reyes also left early in his outing on Tuesday, though it sounds like that was purely precautionary and he isn’t expected to be out long if he even misses this next start. That leaves Didier Fuentes from that previously dominant rotation, but Fuentes has been making up for the absence of everyone. Fuentes struck out nine batters and walked none over six scoreless innings, and he is on one of the most impressive runs I’ve seen any pitcher go on. Right now he is just fastball-slider, but it hasn’t really mattered as Single-A hitters can’t do anything with either pitch. Over his past seven starts he has a 2.20 ERA, a 36.4% strikeout rate, and a 2.30 FIP.
Series Preview
Augusta will be going on the road to play the Fayetteville Woodpeckers, and hopefully this is a chance for the GreenJackets to get some wins and maybe hit a bit. The Woodpeckers are a pretty weak team, featuring just three of Baseball America’s top 30 Astros prospects, and none of those three have been particularly good. #9 prospect Alonzo Tredwell has struggled with walks, and as a result has a 4.24 FIP on the season. The two top 30 hitters - Cesar Hernandez and Waner Luciano - have a 90 and 60 wRC+, respectively. Their best hitter has been Nehomar Ochoa Jr., who has a team-leading seven home runs in 70 games and a 119 wRC+.
FCL Braves
Record: 16-30, 6th in FCL South (11 GB)
DSL Braves
Record: 7-15, 8th in DSL West (9 GB)
Rookie level baseball, always an adventure, has been more interesting for the Braves than it has in a very long time. While Luis Guanipa has struggled to stay on the field he has been largely good in limited playing time, but unfortunately has hit a bit of a rough patch in the past couple of weeks. The good thing is that Guanipa is still making contact at a high rate so it seems it could even out, but his line drive rate right now is low. He did, however, hit a home run on Monday, his second of the season, and even with his struggles I wouldn’t be surprised if Augusta comes calling soon. Of course, the same contention exists as it does for the current GreenJackets with all of the players on that roster that the Braves want to get playing time, and the Braves may decide to just let Guanipa keep getting at bats in those unofficial games in Northport. Selfishly though, I would like them to promote Guanipa so we can see him play.
The best player on this roster right now isn’t Guanipa, it’s John Gil, and his four hit performance last week was the latest in a run of great play for Gil. Gil now has a 113 wRC+ in his 45 games in the complex league this season, to go along with 21 stolen bases. Last week he had five stolen bases, went 8-15 at the plate, and didn’t strike out once. Over his past 16 games Gil has a 176 wRC+, a 15.9% walk rate, and an absurd 6.3% strikeout rate. Him I’m more confident in right now as I believe he will end up in Augusta either after or right before the end of the FCL season. He may very well be forcing his way up now, given how good he has been and the lack of any real competition in that Augusta infield.
JR Ritchie made another rehab start last week and it was a rough one as he allowed five runs and three walks over 2 1⁄3 innings. From what we’ve seen Ritchie is dominant down there and that is no surprise, and the biggest thing right now is that he is healthy and throwing. A handful of poor command games will happen especially in a Tommy John recovery, and I’m hopeful we can get some reports on how his stuff looks soon.
I’ve been awaiting the returns of Juans Espinal and Mateo for a few weeks now in the DSL, and both came back to play last week with mixed results. Juan Mateo only played one game and went 1-3, then was in the lineup on Monday but that game was cut short by rain and suspended. Mateo is the better prospect of the two by far, but Espinal is an interesting player in his own right. Espinal had a home run last week and possesses intriguing raw power, but those strikeout rates are ghastly. Espinal went 3-11 last week and on those other eight occasions he struck out. Injury interruptions, especially for guys with long, complicated swings like Espinal, can lead to increased strikeout rates temporarily but a 45% strikeout rate in the DSL is a major concern regardless of that caveat. It’s also important to note that we really have limited information on these guys, so there could be swing and approach adjustments making temporary issues that we just don’t have the information to make these evaluations within a complete context.
Weekly News:
Drake Baldwin and Nacho Alvarez lead our stock watch for July
Drake Baldwin named to Futures Game roster
Matt Powers with Day Two and Three draft targets
Ryan Waldschmidt mocked to Braves by Baseball America
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