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Credit: Garrett Spain - Battery Power
Alvarez and Drake Baldwin led the Gwinnett offense this past week It is hot outside, but the earth isn’t the only thing scorching. The Atlanta Braves system is picking up steam, with Nacho Alvarez and Drake Baldwin excelling in their promotions to Triple-A. Blake Burkhalter and Lucas Braun led the pitchers last week, then down lower in the system Robert Gonzalez may be putting it all together for Augusta. Also of interest: Ian Anderson and his rehab, as he had a start in Augusta this week and should have another coming up.
Gwinnett Stripers
Record: 37-44, 2-4 2nd half, 9th in IL West (2.5 GB)
The Stripers complaints of top prospects skipping them were heard and solved, as they now feature arguably the two top position players and performers in the system with Nacho Alvarez and Drake Baldwin both staying scorching hot. Starting with Alvarez, the surprise has been his power production but I will say it’s a bit of a mixed bag here. This early production from him really isn’t sustainable, but there are clear improvements over his early career. The Braves have improved Alvarez’s hip rotation and his core is creating much more torque, while they have adjusted his swing where his bat path has a bit more depth on inside pitches. He’s not going to be an all-fields power type of guy, but the problem for him has really been pull side power and the changes they’ve made to unlock his ability to drive inside pitches will make a huge difference for him. Over the last year of games (6/30/2023 to 6/29/2024) Alvarez has hit 10 home runs in 115 games, despite a majority of those coming in the Southern League and with Rome and Mississippi as his home stadiums. Given his on base skill a 12-15 home run per season power output would be enough to make him a major league starter. For those asking, no I don’t think he is major league ready and don’t see him as an upgrade over Orlando Arcia. The defensive gap is massive, and while I think Nacho can be serviceable at shortstop his limited range probably makes him a 45 at the position which I don’t think gives him enough offensive edge over Arcia (if he has any at all) to be worth the call up. I would 100% give him a look in spring training next year, but not yet.
While you can point to Alvarez and his exit velocities if you really want to look for reasons to have concern, and it’s perfectly valid, when looking at Drake Baldwin it’s hard to find any weakness in his early Triple-A performance. Baldwin makes contact at an above average rate, has shown improvements in his pitch selection over last year, and has consistently hit the ball 100+ mph with four of Gwinnett’s eight 110+ mph batted balls this season. He’s done everything right, though I believe Memphis did expose one hole in his swing last series. They were able to get some bad contact and poor results on pitches up and in against Baldwin, which given how he crowds the plate and attacks the bottom of the zone isn’t really a surprise. It’s a constant battle between pitchers and hitters and it’s very likely Baldwin will adjust, but it’s a show that none of these guys are perfect and Baldwin still has some holes in his swing to iron out. Baldwin did look a bit better on the outer third, and so far has put together fine at bats against left handed pitchers though a lot of that has been him sitting back and drawing more walks against them.
The last start for Dylan Dodd was a rough one, and it came with a decrease in velocity across the board. This is something that definitely needs to be monitored going forward, though with the Braves moving him to the bullpen then stretching him back out he could be facing fatigue. He’s also been overall throwing harder this season so again that could be a factor in fatigue as his arm isn’t conditioned for throwing at that effort level for a full season. The bullpen for Gwinnett added two interesting arms in Hayden Harris and Domingo Gonzalez. Harris had one bad outing and one good outing, and it was pretty much the Harris we expected. The base level stuff isn’t that great, but his low release point makes for a unique approach angle on his pitches and he showed some ability to get Triple-A hitters out with it. Gonzalez has been a breakout arm this season, and getting statcast data on him backed up the Double-A observations. He’s sitting mid-90’s on a four seam fastball with a low release that helps the pitch play up, while mixing in a slider in the mid-90’s that averaged around 2500 rpm. It’s major league quality stuff, but I need to see better command from him. He should get some looks in spring training next year, but he is Rule 5 eligible this winter so Atlanta may need to make a decision on him. Luke Waddell went 7-22 at the plate this past week and hit .320/.393/.493 (131 wRC+) in June.
Series Preview
The Stripers are taking a trip up to Minnesota to take on the St. Paul Saints, and this is a juggernaut of an offense. They feature Twins #3 prospect and MLB #45 prospect Brooks Lee, who in 19 Triple-A games has a 1.017 OPS with six home runs. Then the other prospects on the team have been fantastic as well. Deshawn Keirsey is hitting .314/.389/.543 with 10 home runs this season, and the offense overall is led by Matt Wallner with 19 home runs and an .869 OPS.
The name you may recognize on this roster is Yunior Severino, a member of the Braves 2016 international class that was voided. Severino has been a slow riser for the Twins due to his issues with contact, but has always had premium raw power and has come into his own this season. Severino has 15 home runs and an .832 OPS, ranking as the 23rd best prospect in the Twins organization by Baseball America. Overall the Saints have posted a team OPS of .906 over the past 30 days.
Mississippi Braves
Record: 35-40, 4-3 2nd half, t-1st in SL South
Despite losing their top two prospects Mississippi has had surprising offensive success lately, ranking around the middle of the pack in the Southern League over the last month. Tyler Tolve has been a huge part of that success, and he hit two home runs last week (counting Monday’s game) and has three since June 22nd. Tolve has notable raw power for a catcher and has improved enough defensively as a professional to fit into a third catcher role, but for the early part of the year was striking out around 50% of the time. This has dropped to 24.8% over his past 30 games, must closer to a range that gives confidence he can fit in at higher levels of baseball.
Mississippi also got a surprise boost from Cody Milligan, who hit home runs in back-to-back games last week. Milligan is a guy I like because of his defense and his effort on the field, but he has regressed a lot at the plate this season with an increased strikeout rate and drastic dip in walks despite repeating Double-A. Milligan doesn’t have the power to be a starting outfielder at the major league level, but his speed and defense could make him a bench guy who can flip flop between Triple-A and the major leagues. Unfortunately a lot of his profile was contingent on his ability to get on base, and his drop in walks is a red flag. Still he has hit the ball harder each of the past two years, an important underlying input that gives him a much better chance to succeed than we saw a couple of years ago.
The pitching staff for this Mississippi team got gutted by promotions, and finally with the second half starting we got replacements in from Rome. Drue Hackenberg and Lucas Braun were the two obvious players to bring up, with Braun being the most exciting of the two in my opinion. Braun rewarded my excitement in his debut, striking out nine batters over 5 2⁄3 innings with no walks allowed. Braun has struck out 30 batters since he last allowed a walk, and were it not for horrible batted ball luck contributing to his 10 hits allowed he would have had a wonderful debut. Braun was a bit too much in the zone at times, with his slider catching the middle of the plate and sometimes getting hit, but really I’m not going to complain at all about the results when the pitch quality was as good as it was. I still think Braun could be in the major leagues early sometime next year, and the command and bat missing stuff he showed in his Double-A debut supports that notion. I would like to see him use his curveball more — especially against left handed hitters — though I do feel right now their main focus is likely on developing his slider as it is his best pitch.
Drue Hackenberg has been a bit more of a mixed result. His start Monday was pretty rough as he struggled with his command of all of his pitches, and that’s been a problem for him all year. I mentioned this in recap this morning, but I do think it’s a result of them switching to a four seam fastball and it’s going to take a bit of time to get used to the new pitch. His slider and four seam fastball both need significant command improvement, but I do think the cutter, slider, four seam combination is major league quality. Mix in a quality sinker and he should be able to get through a major league lineup multiple times even if I don’t think his changeup has shown me anything I like. An improvement in the changeup would make a difference to his profile, and I’m surprised at the risk involved here given how good his command was supposed to be when he was drafted, but the Braves clearly still believe the athleticism will ultimately take over.
Series Preview
Mississippi is splitting a home and away series with Biloxi, playing Monday through Wednesday in Biloxi and Thursday through Saturday in Mississippi. The reason being the July 4th festivities as firework days are a big draw for every team this time of year, and this gives both teams a chance to have a home game within a day of July 4th. All of the lower level teams are doing it, though obvious Gwinnett didn’t because a St. Paul, Minnesota to Lawrenceville, Georgia split series would have been crazy.
Biloxi will be led by the Brewers #2 prospect and baseball’s #52 prospect Jacob Misiorowski, who has had a strong season for the Shuckers. Misiorowski has a 3.58 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 60 1⁄3 innings, though his walks have always been high. This has been true against Mississippi as well, as in two matchups he hasn’t allowed a run over 6 2⁄3 innings despite issuing more walks than strikeouts. Their last matchup was in May, however, and this M-Braves offense has been in a much better place than they were then. Misiorowski should pitch Saturday and will likely face a bullpen game led by Drew Parrish though the Braves haven’t announced their starters yet. Misiorowski improved his control with six walks and 24 strikeouts in 21 innings in June, but he also got hit hard with seven home runs allowed.
The Shuckers are led by Brewers #9 prospect Brock Wilken on offense, who has been solid this season despite a 28% strikeout rate. Wilken overall has a 113 wRC+ and eight home runs in 52 games, and the 2023 first round pick started his series off with two hits on Monday.
Rome Emperors
Record: 41-33, 5-5 2nd half, t-3rd in SAL South (0.5 GB)
The Emperors are on a bit of a rough stretch, having lost four of their past five games as the pitching staff has struggled a bit. This is no surprise given the losses of Braun, Hackenberg, and even further back Owen Murphy as the team may be in need of reinforcements soon. Cade Kuehler came up from Augusta and struggled mightily in first appearance with eight earned runs allowed over three innings. Kuehler has been a bit of an odd guy for me this season, and while he has clearly improved his command it’s come at the cost of the quality of his stuff. I’m having trouble projecting him as a major league starter at this point, though I will note that his splitter has shown some decent movement and that will help a ton. His slider just isn’t missing many bats and they may need to do some tweaking to improve his pitch mix a bit.
Blake Burkhalter has proven well worth his draft pick though, and I’m fully on board with the Braves developing him as a starter. The pitch mix is clearly major league quality and he may jump straight into my top 12 or so prospects. This hinges a lot on how much consistency he gets on his changeup, but it flashes 55 quality and with the rest of his pitches being outstanding this is a player who could probably pitch in a major league bullpen right now. His slider and cutter both show plus potential along with an above average four seam fastball, and while his command right now is rusty I think I can attribute this mostly to rust following his Tommy John recovery. I don’t know if he ends up staying healthy enough to be a starter, but I think that’s the biggest hurdle for him. The pure stuff is plenty good enough.
The Rome offense has quite a few major holes in it, but it also has a few guys who have really stepped up over the past few weeks. I want to highlight four here. The most dramatic of these is Kevin Kilpatrick Jr, who fluctuates between the best and worst hitter on the team seemingly at random. Right now he is driving the ball with authority, and I think his setup changes have shortened his bat path and served him well. He’s the best defender in the Braves system outside of the injured Ambioris Tavarez (and may be better than Tavarez), and when he is hitting like this it’s so tantalizing to go all in on him. Then you zoom out, and yeah he has just been okay this year. It’s such a tough profile but the physical tools are so enticing and he needs to be tested at Double-A given his age.
It wasn’t clear for much of the year but Sabin Ceballos is the best prospect on this team (at least until Tavarez returns from injury and we see if his streak was a fluke or not). Ceballos’s defense is still frustrating, but he absolutely can hit the ball and has made the necessary changes to unlock some power. He has shown much more impressive pull side power and has really been able to turn on and drive inside pitches, which gives him enough of a profile to stick at third base if the defense pans out. It’s kind of a weird profile overall and he is more a case of a high makeup/physical tools guys that the Braves are gambling on, but he does plenty to flash the potential that made him a day two pick.
Now on to some older prospects who are a bit more questionable. Adam Zebrowski was horrible for like two straight weeks, but has turned into prime Mike Piazza for the last week or so with a 196 wRC+ and three home runs in his last seven games. I don’t think Zebrowski’s hit tool or defense behind the plate are enough to make him a major leaguer, but there’s no reason not to gamble a roster spot on a guy with his raw power. Drew Compton is pretty much the opposite, as it is quite clear his is going to hit and hit well. I don’t think the power is enough for him to stick at first base though, so the Braves may do well to try to see if his hands are good enough to play third or his speed is good enough for second base or the outfield. He got off to a slow start at Rome but quickly adjusted, and while he is probably a Quad-A type he has been impressive for an undrafted free agent.
Series Preview
It’s another matchup between Rome and the Rays-affiliated Hot Rods, with the Emperors starting the series at home and finishing on the road. The Hot Rods are led by three solid hitting prospects, the two best being top-100 guys Xavier Isaac and Brayden Taylor. Rome kept these two in check in their earlier series, but Isaac has 12 home runs and a .932 OPS this season and Taylor has 10 home runs and a .909 OPS. Not to be forgotten is Colton Ledbetter, Tampa’s #12 prospect who has nine home runs and a .775 OPS this season. The player that has really tormented the Braves is pitching prospect Yoniel Curet, the hard-throwing righty who is the Rays #10 prospect. Curiet has overall been just okay this season with a 4.25 ERA, but in two matchups with the Emperors he has pitched 11 scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts.
Augusta GreenJackets
Record: 32-43, 5-5 2nd Half, t-3rd in CAR South (1.0 GB)
Augusta has become one of the more interesting hotbeds in the system, now that a handful of players in the lineup have gotten hot and the pitching staff is full of top prospects. The pitching staff also features the rehabbing Ian Anderson, who threw three scoreless innings for Augusta in Sunday’s game. Anderson struggled to miss bats and seemed to struggle with his feel for pitches, though that’s not at all a surprise given where he is in his rehab. He averaged 92 mph on his fastball, down quite a bit from the last time we saw him in Atlanta, though it’s completely normal for players to be down in the early stages of rehab and regain velocity throughout the process. Anderson is expected to spend at least another start in Augusta.
The rotation has been solid, but on interesting part of this is Adam Maier’s disappearance. Maier hasn’t pitched since struggling on June 21st, though at this point that’s only one missed start. There hasn’t been any announcement or reason to believe he is injured, and given he has now thrown over 50 innings it wouldn’t be a surprise if he is starting to fatigue or have extra soreness given how long he was down following his brace procedure in 2022. The rest of the Augusta rotation has been a mixed bag. Jeremy Reyes struggled his last outing and walked five batters, and while I think the stuff is good enough to pitch in Single-A it’s clear his command is at a point he’s going to struggle. It doesn’t much change my evaluation on him as it’s where I would expect him to be given his experience, but I’m not projecting him to go out there and light up the world the rest of the season and it’s more going to be a focus on seeing specific milestones like changeup progression and holding his velocity deeper into games. Didier Fuentes had probably his worst start of the month to end it off, which is saying a lot as he struck out five batters and only allowed one run. Fuentes has been dominant for quite a long stretch of time now, and ended June with a 1.93 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 18 2⁄3 innings. I do think Fuentes is starting to show some signs of the fatigue we often see with guys by mid summer, as his command has backed up a bit in a handful of starts, but overall his pitch mix is dominant. His fastball and slider are too good for Single-A hitters to really handle and right now I’m not sure if he is ready for a call up to High-A but it could be coming.
It was a pretty rough week overall for Isaiah Drake as he had a .416 OPS and seven strikeouts in six games. That’s heavily influenced by a single three strikeout performance and overall I don’t think there was much if any change in his performance from when he was hot in prior weeks. He just had a week where the hits weren’t falling quite as much and it impacted his numbers, I’m not seeing it as any sort of regression. Drake needs to be better on outside pitches and hit the ball with more authority, but his contact and approach improvement is holding. The standout player has been Robert Gonzalez, who has been absolutely awful for really his entire professional career but is just good enough just often enough to keep me on the edge of my seat. His approach has made significant strides and it’s been an active process too, and I believe some of his struggles were the Braves forcing him into uncomfortable situations by making him take pitches and not swing as early in the count. It’s a case of process over results, where now it seems to me that Gonzalez has turned the corner and is recognizing and laying off of out of zone breaking stuff far more often. This past week he has had a few occasions of turning on the ball and driving it, and if the pitch recognition can take a leap forward the barrel control, raw power, and speed from Gonzalez is enough to make him an MLB player. He has a long way to go and is even behind Drake, but he’s improved a ton faster than I thought he would. He has a 93 wRC+ since May 22nd despite a .233 BABIP. Kade Kern is an interesting player and one I had hoped would be better. Even though he wasn’t a high draft pick he got a few plate appearances in big league camp which is typically reserved for guys the Braves like at least a little bit. He’s unfortunately been very bad with Augusta this season, though the past week has seen him hit a real hot streak. He has three home runs in his past seven games and only four strikeouts, a far cry from the guy who prior to that had a 48 wRC+, 34% strikeout rate, and only two home runs in 50 games.
Series Preview
Augusta will be home over the weekend against a good Columbia Fireflies team, led by Royals 2023 first round pick Blake Mitchell. Mitchell leads the Fireflies with 11 home runs this season and has an .870 OPS, but early on in their matchups the GreenJackets got the best of him. That is until the last time they faced off, when Mitchell had three hits, and in the opener of the series he had a couple of doubles. The offense also features #14 Royals prospect Austin Charles, who had a breakout year last season but has repeated Single-A to little success. Charles has more strikeouts in fewer plate appearances, while only marginally improving his OPS. The best pitching prospect on the team is 2023 second round pick Blake Wolters, who has put together a decent age 19 season. Wolters has a 3.91 ERA, though his walk and strikeout rates lag behind his run prevention results. In their earlier matchup in April Wolters struck out seven GreenJackets over 4 2⁄3 innings, the only time this season he has gone over five strikeouts.
FCL Braves
Record: 12-29, 6th in FCL South (14 GB)
DSL Braves
Record: 5-13, 8th in DSL West (9 GB)
The two rookie level affiliates for the Braves have been very bad this season, and I’m going to lump them together here because there is really not that much to talk about from the DSL. We don’t get video, and two of the most interesting prospects Juan Espinal and Juan Mateo haven’t been playing for awhile now. Carlos Monteverde has been solid this season, but is repeating the level and should be expected to do this well.
The FCL Braves, while bad, are interesting and it starts with the two top hitters. Luis Guanipa had a rough week as he only went 3-13 at the plate and was limited some by sickness, but he only struck out one time and since coming back from his hamstring injury has been very good. John Gil had a short stretch of poor play in early June, but has otherwise been the team’s most consistent contributor. Gil had a .769 OPS last week, hit a home run, and had three walks to four strikeouts. Gil is a high level athlete who could end up being the best player on this team, featuring hitting ability and some raw power. Given his swing path I do project some swing and miss once he gets to upper levels, but he is an interesting player nonetheless.
There are two players to watch on the pitching side. Luis Arestigueta has been a bit inconsistent this season but is the best pitching prospect left there by a long shot. He had six strikeouts over 3 2⁄3 innings last week and overall has a 26% strikeout rate mostly coming from a potentially plus slider. Then there is JR Ritchie, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery and may not be in the FCL much longer. The Braves stretched him out to three innings in his last start, and he struck out three batters over three scoreless innings. He is a high ceiling guy who is still 21 years old, and the hope is he will finish the season in Augusta.
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Credit: Garrett Spain - Battery Power
Alvarez and Drake Baldwin led the Gwinnett offense this past week It is hot outside, but the earth isn’t the only thing scorching. The Atlanta Braves system is picking up steam, with Nacho Alvarez and Drake Baldwin excelling in their promotions to Triple-A. Blake Burkhalter and Lucas Braun led the pitchers last week, then down lower in the system Robert Gonzalez may be putting it all together for Augusta. Also of interest: Ian Anderson and his rehab, as he had a start in Augusta this week and should have another coming up.
Gwinnett Stripers
Record: 37-44, 2-4 2nd half, 9th in IL West (2.5 GB)
The Stripers complaints of top prospects skipping them were heard and solved, as they now feature arguably the two top position players and performers in the system with Nacho Alvarez and Drake Baldwin both staying scorching hot. Starting with Alvarez, the surprise has been his power production but I will say it’s a bit of a mixed bag here. This early production from him really isn’t sustainable, but there are clear improvements over his early career. The Braves have improved Alvarez’s hip rotation and his core is creating much more torque, while they have adjusted his swing where his bat path has a bit more depth on inside pitches. He’s not going to be an all-fields power type of guy, but the problem for him has really been pull side power and the changes they’ve made to unlock his ability to drive inside pitches will make a huge difference for him. Over the last year of games (6/30/2023 to 6/29/2024) Alvarez has hit 10 home runs in 115 games, despite a majority of those coming in the Southern League and with Rome and Mississippi as his home stadiums. Given his on base skill a 12-15 home run per season power output would be enough to make him a major league starter. For those asking, no I don’t think he is major league ready and don’t see him as an upgrade over Orlando Arcia. The defensive gap is massive, and while I think Nacho can be serviceable at shortstop his limited range probably makes him a 45 at the position which I don’t think gives him enough offensive edge over Arcia (if he has any at all) to be worth the call up. I would 100% give him a look in spring training next year, but not yet.
While you can point to Alvarez and his exit velocities if you really want to look for reasons to have concern, and it’s perfectly valid, when looking at Drake Baldwin it’s hard to find any weakness in his early Triple-A performance. Baldwin makes contact at an above average rate, has shown improvements in his pitch selection over last year, and has consistently hit the ball 100+ mph with four of Gwinnett’s eight 110+ mph batted balls this season. He’s done everything right, though I believe Memphis did expose one hole in his swing last series. They were able to get some bad contact and poor results on pitches up and in against Baldwin, which given how he crowds the plate and attacks the bottom of the zone isn’t really a surprise. It’s a constant battle between pitchers and hitters and it’s very likely Baldwin will adjust, but it’s a show that none of these guys are perfect and Baldwin still has some holes in his swing to iron out. Baldwin did look a bit better on the outer third, and so far has put together fine at bats against left handed pitchers though a lot of that has been him sitting back and drawing more walks against them.
The last start for Dylan Dodd was a rough one, and it came with a decrease in velocity across the board. This is something that definitely needs to be monitored going forward, though with the Braves moving him to the bullpen then stretching him back out he could be facing fatigue. He’s also been overall throwing harder this season so again that could be a factor in fatigue as his arm isn’t conditioned for throwing at that effort level for a full season. The bullpen for Gwinnett added two interesting arms in Hayden Harris and Domingo Gonzalez. Harris had one bad outing and one good outing, and it was pretty much the Harris we expected. The base level stuff isn’t that great, but his low release point makes for a unique approach angle on his pitches and he showed some ability to get Triple-A hitters out with it. Gonzalez has been a breakout arm this season, and getting statcast data on him backed up the Double-A observations. He’s sitting mid-90’s on a four seam fastball with a low release that helps the pitch play up, while mixing in a slider in the mid-90’s that averaged around 2500 rpm. It’s major league quality stuff, but I need to see better command from him. He should get some looks in spring training next year, but he is Rule 5 eligible this winter so Atlanta may need to make a decision on him. Luke Waddell went 7-22 at the plate this past week and hit .320/.393/.493 (131 wRC+) in June.
Series Preview
The Stripers are taking a trip up to Minnesota to take on the St. Paul Saints, and this is a juggernaut of an offense. They feature Twins #3 prospect and MLB #45 prospect Brooks Lee, who in 19 Triple-A games has a 1.017 OPS with six home runs. Then the other prospects on the team have been fantastic as well. Deshawn Keirsey is hitting .314/.389/.543 with 10 home runs this season, and the offense overall is led by Matt Wallner with 19 home runs and an .869 OPS.
The name you may recognize on this roster is Yunior Severino, a member of the Braves 2016 international class that was voided. Severino has been a slow riser for the Twins due to his issues with contact, but has always had premium raw power and has come into his own this season. Severino has 15 home runs and an .832 OPS, ranking as the 23rd best prospect in the Twins organization by Baseball America. Overall the Saints have posted a team OPS of .906 over the past 30 days.
Mississippi Braves
Record: 35-40, 4-3 2nd half, t-1st in SL South
Despite losing their top two prospects Mississippi has had surprising offensive success lately, ranking around the middle of the pack in the Southern League over the last month. Tyler Tolve has been a huge part of that success, and he hit two home runs last week (counting Monday’s game) and has three since June 22nd. Tolve has notable raw power for a catcher and has improved enough defensively as a professional to fit into a third catcher role, but for the early part of the year was striking out around 50% of the time. This has dropped to 24.8% over his past 30 games, must closer to a range that gives confidence he can fit in at higher levels of baseball.
Mississippi also got a surprise boost from Cody Milligan, who hit home runs in back-to-back games last week. Milligan is a guy I like because of his defense and his effort on the field, but he has regressed a lot at the plate this season with an increased strikeout rate and drastic dip in walks despite repeating Double-A. Milligan doesn’t have the power to be a starting outfielder at the major league level, but his speed and defense could make him a bench guy who can flip flop between Triple-A and the major leagues. Unfortunately a lot of his profile was contingent on his ability to get on base, and his drop in walks is a red flag. Still he has hit the ball harder each of the past two years, an important underlying input that gives him a much better chance to succeed than we saw a couple of years ago.
The pitching staff for this Mississippi team got gutted by promotions, and finally with the second half starting we got replacements in from Rome. Drue Hackenberg and Lucas Braun were the two obvious players to bring up, with Braun being the most exciting of the two in my opinion. Braun rewarded my excitement in his debut, striking out nine batters over 5 2⁄3 innings with no walks allowed. Braun has struck out 30 batters since he last allowed a walk, and were it not for horrible batted ball luck contributing to his 10 hits allowed he would have had a wonderful debut. Braun was a bit too much in the zone at times, with his slider catching the middle of the plate and sometimes getting hit, but really I’m not going to complain at all about the results when the pitch quality was as good as it was. I still think Braun could be in the major leagues early sometime next year, and the command and bat missing stuff he showed in his Double-A debut supports that notion. I would like to see him use his curveball more — especially against left handed hitters — though I do feel right now their main focus is likely on developing his slider as it is his best pitch.
Drue Hackenberg has been a bit more of a mixed result. His start Monday was pretty rough as he struggled with his command of all of his pitches, and that’s been a problem for him all year. I mentioned this in recap this morning, but I do think it’s a result of them switching to a four seam fastball and it’s going to take a bit of time to get used to the new pitch. His slider and four seam fastball both need significant command improvement, but I do think the cutter, slider, four seam combination is major league quality. Mix in a quality sinker and he should be able to get through a major league lineup multiple times even if I don’t think his changeup has shown me anything I like. An improvement in the changeup would make a difference to his profile, and I’m surprised at the risk involved here given how good his command was supposed to be when he was drafted, but the Braves clearly still believe the athleticism will ultimately take over.
Series Preview
Mississippi is splitting a home and away series with Biloxi, playing Monday through Wednesday in Biloxi and Thursday through Saturday in Mississippi. The reason being the July 4th festivities as firework days are a big draw for every team this time of year, and this gives both teams a chance to have a home game within a day of July 4th. All of the lower level teams are doing it, though obvious Gwinnett didn’t because a St. Paul, Minnesota to Lawrenceville, Georgia split series would have been crazy.
Biloxi will be led by the Brewers #2 prospect and baseball’s #52 prospect Jacob Misiorowski, who has had a strong season for the Shuckers. Misiorowski has a 3.58 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 60 1⁄3 innings, though his walks have always been high. This has been true against Mississippi as well, as in two matchups he hasn’t allowed a run over 6 2⁄3 innings despite issuing more walks than strikeouts. Their last matchup was in May, however, and this M-Braves offense has been in a much better place than they were then. Misiorowski should pitch Saturday and will likely face a bullpen game led by Drew Parrish though the Braves haven’t announced their starters yet. Misiorowski improved his control with six walks and 24 strikeouts in 21 innings in June, but he also got hit hard with seven home runs allowed.
The Shuckers are led by Brewers #9 prospect Brock Wilken on offense, who has been solid this season despite a 28% strikeout rate. Wilken overall has a 113 wRC+ and eight home runs in 52 games, and the 2023 first round pick started his series off with two hits on Monday.
Rome Emperors
Record: 41-33, 5-5 2nd half, t-3rd in SAL South (0.5 GB)
The Emperors are on a bit of a rough stretch, having lost four of their past five games as the pitching staff has struggled a bit. This is no surprise given the losses of Braun, Hackenberg, and even further back Owen Murphy as the team may be in need of reinforcements soon. Cade Kuehler came up from Augusta and struggled mightily in first appearance with eight earned runs allowed over three innings. Kuehler has been a bit of an odd guy for me this season, and while he has clearly improved his command it’s come at the cost of the quality of his stuff. I’m having trouble projecting him as a major league starter at this point, though I will note that his splitter has shown some decent movement and that will help a ton. His slider just isn’t missing many bats and they may need to do some tweaking to improve his pitch mix a bit.
Blake Burkhalter has proven well worth his draft pick though, and I’m fully on board with the Braves developing him as a starter. The pitch mix is clearly major league quality and he may jump straight into my top 12 or so prospects. This hinges a lot on how much consistency he gets on his changeup, but it flashes 55 quality and with the rest of his pitches being outstanding this is a player who could probably pitch in a major league bullpen right now. His slider and cutter both show plus potential along with an above average four seam fastball, and while his command right now is rusty I think I can attribute this mostly to rust following his Tommy John recovery. I don’t know if he ends up staying healthy enough to be a starter, but I think that’s the biggest hurdle for him. The pure stuff is plenty good enough.
The Rome offense has quite a few major holes in it, but it also has a few guys who have really stepped up over the past few weeks. I want to highlight four here. The most dramatic of these is Kevin Kilpatrick Jr, who fluctuates between the best and worst hitter on the team seemingly at random. Right now he is driving the ball with authority, and I think his setup changes have shortened his bat path and served him well. He’s the best defender in the Braves system outside of the injured Ambioris Tavarez (and may be better than Tavarez), and when he is hitting like this it’s so tantalizing to go all in on him. Then you zoom out, and yeah he has just been okay this year. It’s such a tough profile but the physical tools are so enticing and he needs to be tested at Double-A given his age.
It wasn’t clear for much of the year but Sabin Ceballos is the best prospect on this team (at least until Tavarez returns from injury and we see if his streak was a fluke or not). Ceballos’s defense is still frustrating, but he absolutely can hit the ball and has made the necessary changes to unlock some power. He has shown much more impressive pull side power and has really been able to turn on and drive inside pitches, which gives him enough of a profile to stick at third base if the defense pans out. It’s kind of a weird profile overall and he is more a case of a high makeup/physical tools guys that the Braves are gambling on, but he does plenty to flash the potential that made him a day two pick.
Now on to some older prospects who are a bit more questionable. Adam Zebrowski was horrible for like two straight weeks, but has turned into prime Mike Piazza for the last week or so with a 196 wRC+ and three home runs in his last seven games. I don’t think Zebrowski’s hit tool or defense behind the plate are enough to make him a major leaguer, but there’s no reason not to gamble a roster spot on a guy with his raw power. Drew Compton is pretty much the opposite, as it is quite clear his is going to hit and hit well. I don’t think the power is enough for him to stick at first base though, so the Braves may do well to try to see if his hands are good enough to play third or his speed is good enough for second base or the outfield. He got off to a slow start at Rome but quickly adjusted, and while he is probably a Quad-A type he has been impressive for an undrafted free agent.
Series Preview
It’s another matchup between Rome and the Rays-affiliated Hot Rods, with the Emperors starting the series at home and finishing on the road. The Hot Rods are led by three solid hitting prospects, the two best being top-100 guys Xavier Isaac and Brayden Taylor. Rome kept these two in check in their earlier series, but Isaac has 12 home runs and a .932 OPS this season and Taylor has 10 home runs and a .909 OPS. Not to be forgotten is Colton Ledbetter, Tampa’s #12 prospect who has nine home runs and a .775 OPS this season. The player that has really tormented the Braves is pitching prospect Yoniel Curet, the hard-throwing righty who is the Rays #10 prospect. Curiet has overall been just okay this season with a 4.25 ERA, but in two matchups with the Emperors he has pitched 11 scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts.
Augusta GreenJackets
Record: 32-43, 5-5 2nd Half, t-3rd in CAR South (1.0 GB)
Augusta has become one of the more interesting hotbeds in the system, now that a handful of players in the lineup have gotten hot and the pitching staff is full of top prospects. The pitching staff also features the rehabbing Ian Anderson, who threw three scoreless innings for Augusta in Sunday’s game. Anderson struggled to miss bats and seemed to struggle with his feel for pitches, though that’s not at all a surprise given where he is in his rehab. He averaged 92 mph on his fastball, down quite a bit from the last time we saw him in Atlanta, though it’s completely normal for players to be down in the early stages of rehab and regain velocity throughout the process. Anderson is expected to spend at least another start in Augusta.
The rotation has been solid, but on interesting part of this is Adam Maier’s disappearance. Maier hasn’t pitched since struggling on June 21st, though at this point that’s only one missed start. There hasn’t been any announcement or reason to believe he is injured, and given he has now thrown over 50 innings it wouldn’t be a surprise if he is starting to fatigue or have extra soreness given how long he was down following his brace procedure in 2022. The rest of the Augusta rotation has been a mixed bag. Jeremy Reyes struggled his last outing and walked five batters, and while I think the stuff is good enough to pitch in Single-A it’s clear his command is at a point he’s going to struggle. It doesn’t much change my evaluation on him as it’s where I would expect him to be given his experience, but I’m not projecting him to go out there and light up the world the rest of the season and it’s more going to be a focus on seeing specific milestones like changeup progression and holding his velocity deeper into games. Didier Fuentes had probably his worst start of the month to end it off, which is saying a lot as he struck out five batters and only allowed one run. Fuentes has been dominant for quite a long stretch of time now, and ended June with a 1.93 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 18 2⁄3 innings. I do think Fuentes is starting to show some signs of the fatigue we often see with guys by mid summer, as his command has backed up a bit in a handful of starts, but overall his pitch mix is dominant. His fastball and slider are too good for Single-A hitters to really handle and right now I’m not sure if he is ready for a call up to High-A but it could be coming.
It was a pretty rough week overall for Isaiah Drake as he had a .416 OPS and seven strikeouts in six games. That’s heavily influenced by a single three strikeout performance and overall I don’t think there was much if any change in his performance from when he was hot in prior weeks. He just had a week where the hits weren’t falling quite as much and it impacted his numbers, I’m not seeing it as any sort of regression. Drake needs to be better on outside pitches and hit the ball with more authority, but his contact and approach improvement is holding. The standout player has been Robert Gonzalez, who has been absolutely awful for really his entire professional career but is just good enough just often enough to keep me on the edge of my seat. His approach has made significant strides and it’s been an active process too, and I believe some of his struggles were the Braves forcing him into uncomfortable situations by making him take pitches and not swing as early in the count. It’s a case of process over results, where now it seems to me that Gonzalez has turned the corner and is recognizing and laying off of out of zone breaking stuff far more often. This past week he has had a few occasions of turning on the ball and driving it, and if the pitch recognition can take a leap forward the barrel control, raw power, and speed from Gonzalez is enough to make him an MLB player. He has a long way to go and is even behind Drake, but he’s improved a ton faster than I thought he would. He has a 93 wRC+ since May 22nd despite a .233 BABIP. Kade Kern is an interesting player and one I had hoped would be better. Even though he wasn’t a high draft pick he got a few plate appearances in big league camp which is typically reserved for guys the Braves like at least a little bit. He’s unfortunately been very bad with Augusta this season, though the past week has seen him hit a real hot streak. He has three home runs in his past seven games and only four strikeouts, a far cry from the guy who prior to that had a 48 wRC+, 34% strikeout rate, and only two home runs in 50 games.
Series Preview
Augusta will be home over the weekend against a good Columbia Fireflies team, led by Royals 2023 first round pick Blake Mitchell. Mitchell leads the Fireflies with 11 home runs this season and has an .870 OPS, but early on in their matchups the GreenJackets got the best of him. That is until the last time they faced off, when Mitchell had three hits, and in the opener of the series he had a couple of doubles. The offense also features #14 Royals prospect Austin Charles, who had a breakout year last season but has repeated Single-A to little success. Charles has more strikeouts in fewer plate appearances, while only marginally improving his OPS. The best pitching prospect on the team is 2023 second round pick Blake Wolters, who has put together a decent age 19 season. Wolters has a 3.91 ERA, though his walk and strikeout rates lag behind his run prevention results. In their earlier matchup in April Wolters struck out seven GreenJackets over 4 2⁄3 innings, the only time this season he has gone over five strikeouts.
FCL Braves
Record: 12-29, 6th in FCL South (14 GB)
DSL Braves
Record: 5-13, 8th in DSL West (9 GB)
The two rookie level affiliates for the Braves have been very bad this season, and I’m going to lump them together here because there is really not that much to talk about from the DSL. We don’t get video, and two of the most interesting prospects Juan Espinal and Juan Mateo haven’t been playing for awhile now. Carlos Monteverde has been solid this season, but is repeating the level and should be expected to do this well.
The FCL Braves, while bad, are interesting and it starts with the two top hitters. Luis Guanipa had a rough week as he only went 3-13 at the plate and was limited some by sickness, but he only struck out one time and since coming back from his hamstring injury has been very good. John Gil had a short stretch of poor play in early June, but has otherwise been the team’s most consistent contributor. Gil had a .769 OPS last week, hit a home run, and had three walks to four strikeouts. Gil is a high level athlete who could end up being the best player on this team, featuring hitting ability and some raw power. Given his swing path I do project some swing and miss once he gets to upper levels, but he is an interesting player nonetheless.
There are two players to watch on the pitching side. Luis Arestigueta has been a bit inconsistent this season but is the best pitching prospect left there by a long shot. He had six strikeouts over 3 2⁄3 innings last week and overall has a 26% strikeout rate mostly coming from a potentially plus slider. Then there is JR Ritchie, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery and may not be in the FCL much longer. The Braves stretched him out to three innings in his last start, and he struck out three batters over three scoreless innings. He is a high ceiling guy who is still 21 years old, and the hope is he will finish the season in Augusta.
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